Detroit Tigers Thread: Cardiac Cats 2.0 (TTF)

Based on everything I've read, I would be very surprised if we signed any of those guys to a long term contract. I think we're "monitoring" those markets in case one of the wants to sign a one year deal. If Upton comes to us and says he'll play for 1/$20M, I think you go over the tax (assuming Ilitch is cool with it) to make that happen. I don't see us paying $15+ million for 4+ years to sign any of those players, though.

 

That sounds about right. Otherwise, we'll start the season with what we have an look at a mid-season rental to cover any gaps. I'd probably rather pay money now than prospects later, but not at risk of incurring big luxury taxes.

 

There's a lot of factors, obviously.

Only they know what they think of Gose and Collins. I have my doubts on both, but if they think they're both capable hitters (at least v. RHP), it makes sense to try them there and see what you have.

If you can upgrade from that to someone like Upton without having to make the long term commitment, I think you have to do it (as long as you can afforid, of course). The issue that presents is, if someone like Castellanos continues to suck, or Maybin struggles, or the bullpen blows up again, your financial flexibility is so small that your only options are to overpay in terms of prospects in order to improve.

 

To me the latter is why I would probably roll the dice on Desmond before an outfielder - I'm assuming he can play a decent 3B if Castellanos just keeps on being crappy, or he can play LF if we need to play Gose in CF or if Gose just keeps being bad.

I think Collins will hit RHP, but he's an ax murderer on defense. Gose is a fucking disaster offensively. C'mon, Moya.

 

Desmond covers you a bit more in terms of position flexibility, but the bat isn't on the same level.

Put another way, Desmond covers you from the potential disaster because of injury/poor play in the infield, while also probably being capable of playing a solid LF. We don't know about him for sure in the OF, though, and the bat wasn't good last year. Upton can only play a corner OF spot, so he's not nearly as versatile, but he covers them in the scenario Cabrera or either Martinez gets hurt or under-performs. Given the make-up of this roster, that's every bit as important as replacing a lesser player who is injured or performing poorly.

 

All of those guys would start over Gose, yes? Cargo would be incredible, if it could get dobe without Fulmer ...

 

The Os just broke the market by giving Chris Davis $23M x 7 yrs. But I guess anytime you can lock up a 30 year old with 2 good seasons in his career for less than $165M, you gotta do it.

 

Ayyy, at least it wasn't us!

 

Law on Davis:

The Orioles bid against themselves on Chris Davis and they lost, signing a player who has had two seasons that were even solid-average in his career to a seven-year, $161 million contract that covers his age 30-36 seasons.

Law on the Royals giving Ian Kennedy $14M x 5 yrs:

But Ian Kennedy's contract is way beyond a rational projection of his performance, giving $14 million a year to a chronically homer-prone pitcher who's performed like a fifth starter in two of the last three seasons.

Kennedy works heavily with his straight, below-average four-seamer, and he gets punished for it, with that pitch accounting for two-thirds of the homers he gave up in 2015, his worst year to date for surrendering the long ball. He has had only one truly above-average season in the majors, in 2011, posting a low walk rate and low home run rate in the same year for the only time in his career. He was around replacement-level in two of the past three seasons, even with the benefit of pitching a bunch of games in Petco Park in that period.

With his current stuff -- which is unlikely to improve -- and pitch mix, he likely will be at or just below the AL median in strikeout rate and likely to continue to walk too many guys for a finesse right-hander while giving up 25-30 homers if he goes 200 innings. That's going to add up to a below-average result, and for $14 million, the Royals need more.

The real issue I have with the deal, however, is the length rather than the salary. If the Royals believe pitching coach Dave Eiland -- who was with Kennedy with the in New York in 2007-08 -- can make an adjustment or two, that's a great reason to sign the player . . . to a one- or two-year deal, not a five-year deal that seems to bank a little bit on Kennedy improving in 2016-17 and then opting out.

There's more downside than upside here for the Royals, and even with the big revenue boost they should receive off their 2015 World Series win, they will have a hard time carrying a contract like this if it goes south and they need to spend more money to fill the same need.

 

These tweets made me follow Tony Paul again. He seems to think Cespedes is possible now.

Tony Paul ‏@TonyPaul1984 1h1 hour ago
My #Tigers sources were plenty willing to talk about team's non-interact in Cespedes for weeks and weeks. Now I can't get even a peep. Hmmm.

Tony Paul ‏@TonyPaul1984 1h1 hour ago
They say silence speaks volumes. Gotta believe there is a serious behind-the-scenes push for #Tigers to bring back Cespedes.

And on Davis:

Tony Paul ‏@TonyPaul1984 1h1 hour ago
They did not consider Davis for a single second at $170M.

Tony Paul ‏@TonyPaul1984 46m46 minutes ago
We all have different definitions of "serious interest." #Tigers weren't going anywhere near the deal Davis got.

 

Anything long term with Cespedes is just a really bad idea, IMO. If they were going to do that, they should have chased Gordon and Span first because they were both better fits.

 

I think Cespedes will be a better player than Gordon for the next 2 years and I think that's the only window they care about right now, although I agree with you about needing a lefty bat. Also, Gordon signed too early - Ilitch usuallly doesn't start getting that heavy feeling in his wallet until MLK Weekend.

 

Cespedes and Gordon are such different players. I think a healthy Gordon is better than Cespedes the next few years, but Cespedes is a more traditional "middle of the order bat" because he has more pop and has better traditional stats. With Cabrera and the Martinez combo, I think Gordon could have walked into the 2 spot between Kinsler and Cabrera and been a better fit than Cespedes would be anywhere in the current line-up for a variety of reasons. Span is a little trickier because he has no pop and major injury concerns, but I feel the same way about him.

Of course, Gordon probably wasn't going anywhere if KC was going to offer him anything close to fair value, so it's irrelevant anyway. Just wish they would have at least shown a willingness to get into that market and drive up the price if they end up being willing to do the same with Cespedes.

 

Gordon is definitely a better fit in the lineup, but he might be declining at 32 and settling into a 2.5-3.5 WAR territory. If Yoenis is really 30 he could be in line for a couple more prime seasons like the one he just had, but he could also just have had a career contract year and will go back to being a 2.5-3.5 WAR player. I'd certainly rather pay Gordon $100M over 4 years than Yoenis $130M over 6, if that was a possibility.

I think a major criticism of Ilitch over the last 10+ years is the way the payroll budget seems to go up around mid-January. I seems like Dave and now Al make a bunch of moves in the beginning of the offseason, and then a bunch of money opens up in January for a big ticket player. It would have been beneficial to maybe plan around that money in November and December and get a couple more quality guys. Maybe Span and a better SP instead of trading for Maybin and signing Pelfrey, or maybe a reasonable offer for Gordon. Maybe Heyward.

 

Ilitch's spending habits have been overwhelmingly positive for us, but I agree that it probably drives the front office guys nuts to think they have nothing left, only to then see them splurge for some guy Boras talked him into.

Cespedes' issues with getting on base make him hard to project moving forward. His defense offsets that a bit (at least in the short term).

I think the other question with any Cespedes deal beyond 2 years is what it would mean to JD Martinez long term.

 

I bet Cespedes is already holding up JD's deal, although if they can get him to somewhat backload the contract to allow for reasonable salaries in years 1 and 2, they'll have room in year 3 with club options for '18 on Anibal and Kinsler. Anibal will be 34 for the '18 season and Kins will be turning 36 that June. I wonder what JD is looking for - he asked for $8M in arbitration (and the Tigers offered $6M). Would something like $7.5M, $12.5M, $16M, $22M, $22M be enough for him? That's $75M over 5 years and a contract the Tigers could probably handle, and it would allow him to be a free agent again at before his age 33 season.

I'd certainly rather spend longterm money on JD.

 

If we ever forget why Jim Bowden doesn't have a job with an MLB club, he gives us his yearly "trades I'd like to see" column. The first two trades are terrible - I'm not conversant enough with the guys in the other two to say, but they sound terrible:

 

We're definitely blowing a wad on a leftfielder.

 

Am I $50M low of what this would take?

 

MG2 please tell me what to feel about this...

 

Depends on the money. If it's short term (3 years or less), have to think it would be good.

 

It's six years. Welp

 

Jeff Passan ‏@JeffPassan 2m2 minutes ago
Kinsler, Iglesias, Miggy, Upton, Victor, J.D., Maybin, Castellanos, McCann. Holy hell Detroit is going to have some kind of a lineup.

 

Nightengale says it's done. 6 years, less than Heyward and Davis. Guessinging 6 for around $135M.

 

Detox posted first.

Looks to be be decent value for him, only runs until he's 34/35. Worried about getting something done for JD long-term now tho.

 

So hoping for an opt out after 2 years in this deal right

 

Well it's Mike's money and Upton is a hell of an offensive player. He's a better player than Yoenis and 2 years younger. If they can get him to play defense he's a value.

 

Kinda.

 

At first I was like...man that's a lot of money, but now I'm like...who cares, it's not my money. At least they didn't have to give prospects for him.

 

Second round pick, but I agree. That's why I was running bottom 10 standings in September - this could have cost a first rounder.

Puts them in position to let JD walk next year for a 1st rounder if they don't reach a longterm deal, too.

 

3rd rounder, actually. Zimmerman cost the 2nd.

 

That's a lot of money, but I don't think it's an overpay for a guy who is 28 and has his talent. Will be interesting to see if he can get any kind of consistency in his game moving forward. If he does, this will be a bargain. If he doesn't, it could end up being pretty bad in years 4-6 as he gets older and loses some bat speed.

Upton is streaky. Last year, he had 2 months of elite performance (wRC+ of 150 or higher), 2 months of above average-really good (wRC+ of 110 or better), and 2 months of terrible performance (wRC+ of 80 in June and 50 in July, which basically got SD to pull him from the trade block). 2014 was similar, although he was elite for 4 months, and terrible for 2. He actually hit better at Petco last year than on the road, as well, with more HR at home than on the road.

He's going to strike out a lot. He's also going to walk more than Cespedes. Overall, he'll profile about the same as Cespedes did for us last year before the deal, with the same kind of volatility.

The good thing about this is we're no longer counting on performance from 2 of Maybin, Collins and Gose. We now only need one of those guys to hit. The bad news is we're very unlikely to be able to make moves in the next 2 years to improve the team. What you see on opening day is probably what you're going to get through the end of the 2017 season. As long as it works and we're somewhat healthy, that's fine. If it doesn't, oh well, it probably wasn't going to get better, anyway.

 

It will be interesting to see the yearly breakdowns. If reports are true about an opt out after year 2, I wonder if that means he'll make more or less in the first 2 years of the deal. I'm guessing he won't make $22M in year one. Probably more like $15M to stay as close as possible to the tax number for some added flexibility on our end.

 

I thought it was insane that Heyman suggested we were in on Chris Davis. Now I'm really thankful Baltimore stepped up so we didn't do that to ourselves. Upton is a significantly better investment than Davis, especially for us with Cabrera and VMart locked in at 1b and DH.

 

My reaction:

I would not have expected Rosenthal to mess up principle/principal.

 

Over the course of this contract, in the fans eyes, he will alternate between the next Miggy and the second coming of Brandon Inge. Likely switching on a month to month basis

 

Upton wRC+ by month:

2015 - 127, 169, 80, 50, 154, 112

2014 - 191, 145, 72, 151, 165, 57

2013 - 208, 86, 79, 110, 185, 110

A wRC+ of 100 is considered league average. He'll carry us at times, and at others look like the bad version of Raburn.

 

Jon Heyman ‏@JonHeyman
hear mike ilitch was absolutely ready to sign chris davis before gm avila talked him out of it. j-up is (a bit) less $.

 

Old Mike trying to fuck his kids over and not leave them any money. I like it