Official Horse Racing Thread

I'd love to see it, but it all depends on how she's campaigned in the spring. She'd need to run against the boys at least once beforehand (likely in the San Felipe or the Santa Anita Derby) to earn the points.

 

Yeah, and they also had Havre de Grace, who ran against males a couple times.

 

Runhappy can rate now? That's scary.

 

Now Smooth Roller is a late scratch for the Classic. There is absolutely no speed outside of American Pharoah in the race now. I have no idea who even puts pressure on him. It won't be Honor Code, Hard Aces, or Effinex for sure. I highly doubt it is Keen Ice or Tonalist, even though I think both of those horses are capable of showing slightly more speed than those other three. That leaves Frosted and Gleneagles, and after Frosted's run in the Travers, it didn't sound like the connections were happy about the ride Frosted was given when he did challenge American Pharoah in the Travers.

 

Nice call. I was against him, but I do love seeing a son of Uncle Mo do well. Absolutely loved that horse.

Songbird was over a second faster than Nyquist was, for the record. She's still easily the top juvenile in the country to me.

 

Mohaymen won the Grade 2 Nashua yesterday. This was in spite of him acting up pretty much the whole time during the lead up to the race.

He'll be pointed to either the Remsen or the Kentucky Jockey Club.

 

I still like him more than any other 2 year old not named Songbird.

I think I like Mor Spirit, a Baffert horse, more than any of the Breeders Cup Juvenile horses as well. A couple more that intrigue me, but want to see more of before putting them ahead of Brody's Cause, etc., are Gift Box (Chad Brown) and Gun Runner (Steve Asmussen).

 

The first future pools for the Derby are this weekend. Churchill is doing the normal future pool, but they also are starting a wager where you pick which horse will sire the Derby winner. I'm not planning on betting either pool, but it is interesting to look at.

Kentucky Derby Future Wager

Kentucky Derby Sire Wager

Derby favorites:
10-1: Nyquist
15-1: Brody's Cause, Mohaymen, Swipe
20-1: Airoforce, Matt King Coal, Mor Spirit

Derby Sire favorites:
15-1: Pioneerof The Nile, Tapit
20-1: Distorted Humor, Giant's Causeway, Malibu Moon, Medaglia d'Oro, Tiznow, Unbridled's Song, Uncle Mo, War Front

 

Very solid addition of the Remsen looks to be taking place on Saturday. There are a handful of horses from the Derby Future wager that are in the race: Mohaymen (15-1), Sail Ahoy (30-1), Gift Box (30-1), and Flexibility (30-1). I like Mohaymen (though he'll be favored and likely wouldn't be worth betting), but I am interested in seeing Gift Box run. I like him more between the two Brown runners (Flexibility is the other). I'm not as high on Sail Ahoy as others are. I think Marengo Road could hit the bottom of the exotics at a bit of a price.

Also have a matchup between Tonalist and Private Zone in the Cigar Mile that should be fun. The distance should give Private Zone a minor edge.

 

Two Derby point races were today- the Remsen and the Kentucky Jockey Club. The Remsen featured the four I mentioned above (Mohaymen, Sail Ahoy, Gift Box, Flexibility), while the Kentucky Jockey Club had Mor Spirit, Airoforce, Gun Runner, Annual Report, and Rated R Superstar. All and all, 9 horses from the future pool ran today in the two races (and that doesn't include Conquest Big E, who won an allowance race today at Churchill).



-I thought the Remsen was a pretty strong race. Mohaymen, who won the Remsen, went 1 1/8 miles in 1:50.69. This compares very favorably to the Demoiselle (Grade 2 2YO fillies, 1:53.41) and the Comely (Grade 3 3YO fillies, 1:50.75), which were also run on the card. Mohaymen was best, but the second and third place winners, Flexibility and Gift Box, both ran well in their own right. Those three were well clear of the rest of the field. I think all three of them will be a factor going into next year. Sail Ahoy was a well beaten horse in finishing fourth, and I just think he's not as good as the others.



-I'm not as sold on the horses coming out of the Kentucky Jockey Club. Unlike the Remsen, the times don't stack up as well when looking at the rest of the card. Airoforce, who won the Jockey Club, completed 1 1/16 miles in 1:45.48. This was about even with the 2YO fillies in the Grade 2 Golden Rod (1:45.42), and in Race 8, a race for 2YO maidens, was only a step slower, with that race completing in 1:45.75. While not apples to oranges, as it was only a mile, the Conquest Big E race mentioned above looked to be a bit faster than the Jockey Club race. Now I think Airoforce and Mor Spirit, who ran 1-2, are decent to good horses, but I thought the top 3 horses in the Remsen all ran better than those two did. I do think Airoforce got an ideal trip, while Mor Spirit had to fend off a challenge from Gun Runner at the top of the stretch, and won that battle between thosee two horses before getting picked off by Airoforce. (Mo Tom, a long shot who finished third, just closed from the back of the pack to pick up the pieces, with Gun Runner finishing 4th.)

With all that said, the track was sloppy at Churchill, so there may be some horses that just didn't relish the going. But given that the race turned out fairly formful (outside of Mo Tom in third, the rest of the top five finishers were the top four betting choices, and this was a race of 13 horses), I don't completely buy that as the primary factor. If I had to take a horse out of this race, it would still be Mor Spirit. I liked his last race too much to get off of him after one race that wasn't all that great (though it wasn't terrible either).

-Also worth noting from today: Tonalist won the Cigar Mile (while Private Zone didn't hit the board), and Dortmund just toyed with horses in the Native Diver at Del Mar. You'd have to think both of those horses will be in the top 5 of the older male group next year.

 

Shared Belief was euthanized today after a colic attack. Just awful.

It's amazing how quickly colic can debilitate a horse. He was training on the track yesterday, with seemingly no issues.

 

She's freakish in the way that Runhappy looked freakish when he broke his maiden at Turfway (although Runhappy was much less professional). She's faced no competition in her races, so it's possible she looks better than she really is, but definitely a horse to keep an eye on.

 

Jerome Stakes (Saturday Race 8, Aqueduct, 1 mile 70 yards, 10 points)

The first points race of 2016 features Flexibility (4), who was the runner-up to Mohaymen in the Nashua and the Remsen in his last two starts. With no Mohaymen in the race this time, he’ll be a solid favorite in this spot, and is far and away the likeliest winner. I picked him second, mainly because I expect him to be lower than even money, and that value seems a little too steep. The horse I’m most likely to go against is Bird of Trey (6). Despite his 10-1 morning line, I would expect him to end up being bet down quite a bit- possibly ending up the second choice. Speed figure wise, he fits very well, and his race last time out received a 90 Beyer, which I believe could win this race. That said, all of his races have been at Parx, and speed figures from there don’t necessarily translate when those horses ship. Of the two horses shipping in off of stakes wins, I prefer Vorticity (5), but I’m worried about how far he wants to go-his dam was a very nice horse, but was a pure sprinter. The horse I’m really interested in is Let Me Go First (9). He is a half-brother to Bolo, a horse who was best on the turf, but ran well in the Kentucky Derby preps last year. I also tend to think that Let Me Go First may ultimately be better on turf, but he has shown he can win on dirt, and I feel certain he is a two turn horse- something I can’t say about pretty much every other horse in the race other than maybe Donegal Moon (3), who I just don’t think is all that good. Now he needs to run a bit faster to be a contender, but he has steadily improved throughout his starts, and I think he’s capable of doing so again. At a big price, I’ll take a shot with him.

Jerome selections:

1. Let Me Go First (9), 30-1
2. Flexibility (4), 1-1
3. Vorticity (5), 4-1

 

By the way, I'll do sort of a beginning of the year preview next week at some point, where I will have a preseason top 20 horses that I like going forward as potential Derby horses. It did really well last year (off the top of my head, I had Carpe Diem 1, Dortmund 2, American Pharoah 3, Firing Line 4, Frosted somewhere in the bottom half of the top 10, and Divining Rod/Keen Ice in the mid-teens). The only horses that hit the super in any Triple Crown race that I didn't have in the preseason were Tale of Verve (total fluke to finish 2nd in the Preakness) and Mubtaahij, a horse based in Dubai (finished 4th in the Belmont).

Last year was extremely formful throughout, though, where favorites consistently performed well. I'd be surprised if I did anywhere near as well this year with it, especially because I think this crop is weaker coming into 2016 than last year's group were going into 2015. Any one of that Carpe Diem/Dortmund/American Pharoah/Firing Line group would be number 1 in this crop at this point for me.

 

My initial top 20 for the Triple Crown Trail this year, along with their current odds at the Wynn for the Derby and their trainer:

1. Mohaymen (12, Kiaran McLaughlin) – I’ve thought he was the best 2YO male horse since his debut, and he hasn’t done anything to get me to change my mind. Strong pedigree backed up by strong performances.
2. Mor Spirit (12, Bob Baffert) – He might not be the most accomplished (though his Los Alamitos Futurity is a step in the right direction), but he’s the best Derby prospect on the west coast to me.
3. Brody’s Cause (22, Dale Romans) – He was good in his Breeder’s Futurity win, and he should improve as distances increase.
4. Gift Box (35, Chad Brown) – This is Brown’s strongest hand to enter a Derby prep season that I can remember, and I think he is the best of the lot.
5. Drefong (60, Bob Baffert) – Of my top 10, he’s probably the biggest boom or bust horse in this group. I liked his maiden breaker quite a bit. It will be interesting to see a son of Gio Ponti running on dirt, although his damside pedigree shows that dirt shouldn’t be an issue.
6. Nyquist (15, Doug O’Neill) – The deserving 2YO champ. That said, I still don’t know how far he wants to run, and I still don’t know how good he really is. He’s all but guaranteed a spot in the Derby already, but I could see him being one that peaked early, and will be further down the list once others establish themselves.
7. Swipe (20, Keith Desormeaux) – I had a hard time rationalizing putting him above Nyquist based on how he’s consistently lost to him, which is mostly why he is this low. I do think he’s more likely to relish the increase in distances than Nyquist will though.
8. Flexibility (60, Chad Brown) – I have minor distances questions with him, which is why Gift Box is ahead of him despite finishing behind him in the Remsen, but get him away from Mohaymen, and he’s been able to shine.
9. Rafting (100, Graham Motion) – Like a couple others on this list, he’s a son of Tapit. He’s still developing a bit, but he’s already a listed stakes winner, and the pedigree is there on the bottom side of his family as well.
10. Greenpointcrusader (30, Dominic Schettino) – He was impressive in the Champaign, and has a strong pedigree, but I wonder how much the wet track helped him that day.
11. Synchrony (85, Donnie Van Hemel) – An allowance winner who I think will be the leader among the local Arkansas horses to go against whoever Baffert sends over.
12. Gun Runner (50, Steve Asmussen) – Was disappointed with his Kentucky Jockey Club, but I’m willing to overlook one race from him, just in case it was the wet track that got him.
13. Shagaf (45, Chad Brown) – The third of Brown’s trio of quality horses, he crushed in his debut. He’ll need to show he can do it against better horses, but the talent and the pedigree look to be there.
14. Stradivari (175, Todd Pletcher) – I can’t remember a time where Pletcher had this weak of a crop going into their 3YO year. Stradivari has the most potential to me of his group, even though he is only a maiden winner.
15. Exaggerator (20, Desormeaux) – He hasn’t done anything wrong, but of the two top Desormeaux horses, I prefer Swipe. There’s just something about him that strikes me as off with him, and I can’t even pinpoint what exactly that is.
16. Ishaq (75, Efren Loza) – His dam is a full sister to Smarty Jones, and he has flashed talent in his races to date. Do have some distance questions with him, otherwise he would likely be higher.
17. Dolphus (150, Joe Sharp) – He’s a half to Rachel Alexandra, and the Louisiana path to the Derby is there for the taking.
18. Airoforce (20, Mark Casse) – He has his backers, but I want to see him run a big race on a dry dirt track before crowning him a top tier Derby contender. Love him on the turf though.
19. Amis Gizmo (65, Josie Carroll) – Has been very impressive in Canada to date. Not sure what he’s been beating though.
20. Knights Key (75, Steve Hobby) – Very nice pedigree for going longer distances, should be a player in Arkansas.

Just missing the cut: Conquest Big E, Found Money, Morse Code, Secret Passage, Seymourdini, Unbridled Outlaw

 

Jerome Stakes Review-
Winner: Flexibility
Beyer Speed Figure: 90



Flexibility (4) was bet down to 1-2, and he ran like it, easily winning the Jerome. To be honest, I’m not sure we learned anything relevant in this race. Flexibility had an ideal trip (although there was a bit of a scare coming out of the gate, with Donegal Moon (3) stumbling and throwing his rider off next to him), sitting behind three horses setting an honest pace in Vorticity (5), Bird of Trey (6), and Condo King (7). He was able to pass the latter two fairly easily, but some credit should go to Vorticity, who showed a little bit of fight before tiring and finishing over four lengths back in second.

I don’t think anything Flexibility did this race should change your opinion of him too much. Other than maybe being a bit further back, he basically ran the race he did in the Remsen. There was just no horse like a Mohaymen to challenge him this time. But my biggest concern with him is going to be distance related, and as the Jerome is shorter than the Remsen, this race doesn’t answer that question in the slightest. Vorticity has some talent, but I think he’ll have distance limitations that will prevent him from being a true Wood Memorial contender, much less the Kentucky Derby. In Equality (2) clunked up to finish a well beaten third, and it was about 10 lengths further back to find anyone else. Bird of Trey was a major disappointment in finishing far back in fourth- like I said before the race, the races that a horse runs at Parx does not often translate to a New York track like Aqueduct, so it doesn’t surprise me to see him regress. Bottom line, it is hard to like anyone other than Flexibility going forward on the Derby trail.

 

Sham Stakes (Saturday Race 6, Santa Anita, 1 mile, 10 points):

This is looking like a better betting race than the Jerome, with no standout horse in this field. There are a few horses making the jump from turf to dirt, including the top two runners of the Grade 3 DeMille Stakes, Dressed In Hermes (2) and Collected (9). These two are the morning line top choices, with Baffert’s Collected the slight favorite. I’m against both of them here. I think Dressed In Hermes may be the most talented horse in the race, but the worst race of his career to date was his one start on dirt. I’m taking a stand that he is a pure turf horse, as I will with Collected. In his case, it raises a red flag when Baffert starts him out on the dirt, even though his pedigree could go either way to favoring dirt or turf. I’m Already There (7) will probably take some money based on his third in the Los Alamitos Futurity, but someone had to be third in that race. He was no match for the top two. The two horses that interest me the most are Found Money (4) and Let’s Meet in Rio (3). Found Money has been handled fairly easily in his two prior graded stakes starts, but one of those was against Nyquist, and the other was against a solid horse in Exaggerator on an odd track in Delta Downs. This field is weaker than those. My one concern for him is the possibility for a wet track, which he struggled with at Delta Downs. But I think he should be a solid enough price. Let’s Meet in Rio is Baffert’s other horse in this field, and I like that, unlike Collected, he has been racing on dirt from the very beginning, and has been slowly improving with each race. I’ll throw Semper Fortis (5) in at third. I don’t like that a horse with his pedigree (he’s a half-brother to Carpe Diem) had to be dropped down to the maiden claimer level, but he does seem to be taking a step forward his past couple of races. Maybe it just took him some time to figure things out.

Sham Stakes selections:

1. Found Money (4) 6-1
2. Let’s Meet in Rio (3) 6-1
3. Semper Fortis (5) 8-1

 

Sham Stakes Review-
Winner: Collected
Beyer: 80


This was a very mediocre race, at best. Collected (9) was much the best, as he was fairly wide throughout and still got it done, but I think that says more about who he was facing than it did anything for him. The final quarter was slow (over 26 seconds, and it wasn’t like there was a supersonic pace), and an average group of older starter allowance horses ran a couple lengths faster earlier in the card at this distance. Another thing to note- this Sham was the slowest Sham at this distance by about 1.5 seconds. Granted, the Sham has only been this distance since 2011, but that is still pretty damning for this group. Of the others, Let’s Meet in Rio (3) gained considerable ground during the stretch, but I think his stretch run wasn’t quite as impressive as it looked. But unless there is some major excuse, those are the only two that should even consider the Derby Trail going forward (and those two are Baffert’s C-String horses compared to horses like Mor Spirit and Drefong). I was greatly disappointed with Found Money (4), who faltered in the stretch.

 

LeComte Stakes (Saturday Race 11, Fair Grounds, 1 mile 70 yards, 10 points):

I don’t know if there are any stars in this group, but that will help make this a good betting race, as there are about 7-8 horses or so that I could make a case for to win, or at least finish in the top two. Mo Tom (7) is the most accomplished horse, and will almost certainly be the favorite coming off of his third place finish to Airoforce and Mor Spirit. He’s logical, but I just don’t think he’s much better than the rest of these. And his trainer has come out and said that this isn’t the goal for the horse, so I don’t think we necessarily see him cranked up to win. At the price he’ll be at, I’ll try to beat him. Another horse who I will be trying to beat is Destin (13), Pletcher’s colt who is a full brother to Creative Cause (one of my favorites, he finished third in the Preakness in the I’ll Have Another year). I think he has potential, but I wasn’t enthralled with his last race, and he’ll take money. A trio of horses coming out of a strong allowance race- in order, Pinnacle Peak (10), Tom’s Ready (15), and Dolphus (5)- will all be players, though I’m mostly against Pinnacle Peak, who I thought had an easy trip after Dolphus got bumped at the start. Of all the horses in the field, I think Dolphus has the most upside as far as being a Derby contender, and he’ll be a fair price, but I think he still may be figuring things out. I’m just hoping for a good 2nd or 3rd place finish from him. I’ll go with Uncle Walter (3). He’s a head away from being 2-2 (and the loss was to Synchrony, who is running in the Smarty Jones on Monday at Oaklawn and a horse I am high on), and his connections have been in control of the Louisiana circuit the past two years (Vicar’s In Trouble and International Star combined to win 5 of the 6 Louisiana preps for the Ramseys, Mike Maker, and Miguel Mena). I also think he may sit the best trip in the race, just behind the pace setters. Two more to keep an eye on- Fish Trappe Road (2) will be the pace setter, and he may be the most talented horse in this race. I just think he’s a sprinter. Tiznoble (11) has ability as well, and the distance fits him, but I think is better on turf. Neither are horses I will use, but they both could make some noise in races down the road away from the Derby trail (especially Fish Trappe Road).

LeComte Stakes selections:

1. Uncle Walter (3) 6-1
2. Dolphus (5) 10-1
3. Tom’s Ready (15) 5-1

 

Smarty Jones Stakes (Monday Race 8, Oaklawn, 1 mile, 10 points)

I think this ends up being a two horse race between Toews on Ice (4) and Synchrony (8). Toews on Ice is Baffert’s Arkansas horse, and he has dominated the Arkansas circuit the past few years when he has had a horse here. He’s going to be a pretty heavy favorite, and he may be the likeliest winner, but I’m going to lean towards Synchrony. I really liked his first two starts, and he beat Uncle Walter last time out, who came back to run a decent third yesterday in the Lecomte. I also think going two turns is more likely to help him than it would Toews on Ice, even if the mile distance should suit Toews on Ice okay. I’d be surprised if anyone else won- the only other horse that is single digits on the morning line is Discreetness (6), and his best races have been on a synthetic track. I like Knights Key (12) as a horse as the distances get longer, but I’ve heard he’s going to scratch given the outside post and will run in an allowance race. I don’t think he’s on the level of the top two, but Black Ops (7) intrigues me a little bit, he has some potential.

Smarty Jones selections:

1. Synchrony (8) 9-2
2. Toews on Ice (4) 9-5
3. Black Ops (7) 12-1

 

If I'm betting a card, I'll buy DRF PPs. And with a lot of the Triple Crown preps (neither of the two this weekend though), they will be the DRF race of the day, where they have free PP's for that race. But if I'm only going to handicap for just one or two races, I don't think it's worth paying the full price for them.

I'll look for free online PPs for the Triple Crown preps otherwise, and just supplement them with prior knowledge.

One really good source for following the Triple Crown Trail is Jeremy Plonk's Countdown to the Crown. He used to do the column on ESPN a few years back, but now he just does it on his own site. It's a great read.Every Friday, he writes a very in-depth review of the past week's races and a preview for the coming weekend (and not just for stakes races, he goes in depth for maiden and allowance races as well). It's the best way for me to hear about the non-stakes up and coming horses, since I won't catch all the maiden/allowance races at Santa Anita, Gulfstream, Oaklawn, etc. live.

 

I want to watch both the Lecomte and the Smarty Jones again, but my initial thought is that while the Lecomte was the stronger race of the two, Synchrony is still the top horse for me going forward from either race. He was the only horse making up ground in the Smarty Jones.

 

LeComte Stakes Recap:
Winner: Mo Tom
Beyer: 88


An initial field of 15 ended up being a field of 8, although the horses that dropped out were mostly the ones who were long shots (Dolphus, the horse I liked the most as a Derby prospect, was the exception, as he acted up in the gate and was scratched at post time). It ended up being a race of who moved last winning the race, with Mo Tom (7) outkicking Tom’s Ready (15). I tend to think Tom’s Ready may have made his move too early, as he evened out in the stretch and began to tire a bit, while Mo Tom waited and was able to pass him with relative ease. With a better timed move, I think that the gap between him and Mo Tom is minimal. Uncle Walter (3) finished 3rd to complete the Uncle Mo trifecta (all three horses were sired by him). I thought he ran okay, and he’ll go forward, but I liked the performance of the top two more. Destin (12) was a minor disappointment, finishing a non-threatening fourth.

Smarty Jones Recap:
Winner: Discreetness
Beyer: 83


The biggest story was the absolute no show of Toews on Ice (4) rather than that of those who actually ran. I don’t remember a Baffert horse ever bombing at Oaklawn like that. He’ll return to sprinting, where his future always lied anyways. As for the others, Discreetness (6) and Gordy Florida (5) were able to finish 1-2, but I wasn’t all impressed with their runs. Being forwardly placed was helpful the way the race turned out (which makes the Toews on Ice performance all the more baffling). And with all that in their favor, they didn’t run all that fast of a race. Of the two, I actually liked Gordy Florida’s race a little more, since he had to battle Toews on Ice early on, while Discreetness sat the perfect trip behind them. Synchrony (8) finished third, but he was also the only horse that made any sort of move. And at the time where I expected his greatest turn of foot in the stretch, he was surrounded by other horses, and wasn’t able to show his best. Even though I thought this was the weaker of the two prep races, I still think he’s the horse going forward to follow between the LeComte and the Smarty Jones.

 

Withers Stakes (Saturday Race 4, Aqueduct, 1 1/16 miles, 10 points)

With the long shot Cards of Stone scratching, this will only be a field of 6. This is the undercard of the two prep races this weekend, as the two favorites here have been handled by the two favorites in the Holy Bull. Flexibility (2) will likely be the solid favorite, and given that the only horse that has beat him is Mohaymen, it is hard to argue too much against that, but a reasonable case could be made that Sunny Ridge (7) is just as likely of a winner as Flexibility is. He’s run good seconds in two consecutive graded stakes to horses that are considered strong Derby contenders in Greenpointcrusader and Exaggerator. It’s possible that he may just like a wet track, where both of those performances occurred, but he has ran well on a fast dirt track, winning a stakes at Monmouth last year. I see those two as about even with each other at this distance (I like Flexibility a bit more as the distances stretch out, more so because I think this is the limit for Sunny Ridge than anything), but given the expected betting, I’ll lean towards Sunny Ridge. For the others, Adventist (6) intrigues me. I don’t know what he beat, but he smashed a maiden field in his debut. This looks like a big step up in class, but if he proves he belongs, then I think he could be an interesting horse to follow down the road. He probably has the best distance pedigree in the field. I also like the futures for both King Kranz (4) and Vorticity (5), but I prefer them sprinting.

Withers Stakes Selections:

1. Sunny Ridge (7) 5-2
2. Flexibility (2) 7-5
3. Adventist (6) 5-1

Holy Bull Stakes (Saturday Race 11, Gulfstream, 1 1/16 miles, 10 points)

It’s another field of only 6, but between Mohaymen (2), Conquest Big E (4), and Greenpointcrusader (5), this race may be the first time that any strong Derby contenders have raced in 2016. Those three stand out significantly from the other three horses (although Fellowship (3) isn’t a bad horse, and somehow actually has the most career earnings of any horse in this field due to his win in a 500k stakes race restricted to Florida-bred 2YO’s.) Of the three, I’m most against Greenpointcrusader in this spot, as there doesn’t look like a lot of pace on paper, and Mohaymen/Conquest Big E will be more forwardly placed. I think this race is probably most important to Conquest Big E, given that the other two horses already have 10 points in their pocket due to their wins last year in New York. But I don’t think he is quite as good as Mohaymen (I think Greenpointcrusader is a better horse, too, but Conquest Big E will have the pace advantage over him). So I’ll go with Mohaymen on top, but this won’t be a betting race, as he’ll likely go off at under even odds.

Holy Bull Selections:

1. Mohaymen (2) 6-5
2. Conquest Big E (4) 7-2
3. Greenpointcrusader (5) 8-5

 

Best performance of the year to date, and he was gearing down a bit down the stretch. He's solidly my number one horse right now- he looks like he has the total package.

He still hasn't shown he can run that real fast race- he's in the mid-90s on the Beyer scale right now- but I'm not too concerned with that at the moment. Being in the mid-90s is still ahead of every other horse in this crop. And I think he could have gone a length or two faster, if needed, in the Holy Bull, given how easily he finished the race. Given that was his first start off of a short layoff, I think you can also project further improvement going forward.

 

Withers Stakes Recap:
Winner: Sunny Ridge
Beyer: 87


Kind of a weird race, with the top four runners essentially running a merry-go-round race. Sunny Ridge (7) was able to outkick Vorticity (5), with the heavy favorite Flexibility (2) disappointing in finishing 4th. The top four (including Adventist (6), who finished 3rd), all finished within 2 lengths of each other, which leads me to believe that it was a pretty mediocre race. I think these four are all nice horses, but none are superstars, and other than Adventist, I don’t know how much further any of them want to go. And from the talks of it, the Triple Crown races are secondary for Sunny Ridge, with the Haskell their long term goal (his owner is based at Monmouth). If I had to take one of the horses going forward, it would be Adventist, because he ran incredibly green all the way throughout the race, and has more distance potential. Flexibility has moved down to being the third of the Chad Brown horses for me, behind Shagaf (who had a nice allowance win on Friday) and Gift Box. I expected a lot more than what I saw from him.

Holy Bull Stakes Recap:
Winner: Mohaymen
Beyer: 95


Mohaymen (2) sure didn’t disappoint, beating Greenpointcrusader (5) with ease to win the Holy Bull. There isn’t too much you can nitpick with him. He’s undefeated, with three graded stakes wins. He’s adaptable- he can run near the pace or from a bit off of it. He can win dogfights (see his maiden race) and he can put some space between him and the rest of the field. Although he still needs to run a bit faster, right now he’s consistently the fastest horse speed figure wise (outside of Songbird, who will stick with the fillies). Plus he has a fantastic pedigree. There is a reason that his connections paid $2.2 million for him, and the way his career is trending, that may turn out to be a bargain. Greenpointcrusader didn’t lose anything in defeat. He was clearly second best, and he was much more forwardly placed than I thought he would be. I think he’ll be better with more pace and being able to run further back in the pack. Any doubts about him running on a fast track, also, can mostly be erased. Conquest Big E (4) was the big disappointment. He showed little speed, and was outfinished by longshot Fellowship (3). He might be a horse that shines against lesser competition but struggles against the stakes caliber horses. Plus, he may be a horse that runs better with a wet track.

A couple other horses that are worth noting that ran last weekend are Shagaf (allowance winner at Gulfstream), Smokey Image (Cal Cup Derby winner), and Danzing Candy (allowance winner at Santa Anita). I think I like Danzing Candy the most, followed by Shagaf and Smokey Image, but all three of those horses I would take over any Withers Stakes runner, and I would at least have Danzing Candy and Shagaf in my top 10 Derby contenders. The Shagaf and Smokey Image races are below, here is a link to the Danzing Candy race:

 

Robert B. Lewis Stakes (Saturday Race 4, Santa Anita, 1 1/16 miles, 10 points):

Outside of Mor Spirit (5), this doesn’t look like that impressive of a field. The rest of the field is comprised of the 2nd/3rd place horses in a below average Sham, two horses that prefer turf, and two horses coming out of a 6 ½ furlong allowance race. Those two allowance horses, I Will Score (2) and Uncle Lino (7) are probably the biggest threats, along with Lets Meet In Rio (1), the runner-up in the Sham. The two allowance horses ran really well last time out, and both should be forwardly placed, which should be a plus. I’m just not sure how far they want to run. I do prefer I Will Score of the two. Lets Meet In Rio shouldn’t have a problem with the distance, but I don’t think he’s all that good. I’ll be disappointed if Mor Spirit doesn’t win. He’ll also likely by 1-5 at post time, so this is a race not worth betting.

Robert B. Lewis Stakes selections:

1. Mor Spirit (5) 8-5
2. I Will Score (2) 5-2
3. Lets Meet In Rio (1) 6-1