Official Horse Racing Thread

Art Sherman announced today that California Chrome will race in 2016, possibly as early as January if everything goes well.

 

As of today, these are the potential fields for the Jim Dandy and the Haskell, which are coming up next weekend. Neither field looks to be all that large, but the Jim Dandy looks to be fairly well balanced, while there are some talented (if enigmatic) colts taking on American Pharoah (though AP will still be the heavy favorite).

Jim Dandy-
Frosted
Texas Red
Materiality
Upstart
Frammento
Japan

Haskell-
American Pharoah
Competitive Edge
Keen Ice
Mr. Jordan
Stanford
Tekton

 

We'll see how many of those actually run in the Dandy. Tekton and Competitive Edge have both also been mentioned for the Haskell, and Tekton is also entered into the West Virginia Derby.

I'm excited to see Barbados run again, I think he can be a top level sprinter. I also didn't realize that Al Khali is still running in races. He's been around forever.

 

My thoughts on some of this weekend's bigger races:

Amsterdam Stakes (Saratoga, Saturday Race 5):

I like Barbados a lot in this spot. I've always loved this horse- I remember at the start of the year having him as one of my top 10 Derby horses, but his connections didn't do anything with him other than keep him in sprint races, and then he got hurt. He ran well enough in his return race last time out, and I expect him to improve his second time out. By the end of the year, I think he's a horse that will be a big factor for the Breeders Cup Sprint. And with March (who I'm way against) and Holy Boss in the race, he likely won't be favored. As long as he stays above 2-1 (and I think he should), he's a bet for me.

Amsterdam selections:
1. Barbados (5) 7-2
2. Holy Boss (7) 5-2
3. Victory Is Sweet (4) 5-1

Vanderbilt Stakes (Saratoga, Saturday Race 8)

This is a pretty strong group of 7 from top to bottom- when a horse like Departing is your longest shot in the field, you know it's filled with quality. Rock Fall and Salutos Amigos will be your favorites, and deservedly so, but this is a step up in class for both of those horses from what they have been facing. I can't help myself- I'm going with Clearly Now. I land on him every time, and almost every time, he disappoints me, but I still believe his best race is better than any other horses best race in the field. Now, it's probably only about a 20% chance that we see him run his A race, but given that he'll likely be above 5-1, I'll take my chances with him. But I'll probably end up being disappointed by him again.

Vanderbilt selections:
1. Clearly Now (4) 8-1
2. Rock Fall (3) 2-1
3. Salutos Amigos (2) 5-2

Bowling Green Stakes (Saratoga, Saturday Race 9)

I've seen enough of the established turf horses in this race (War Dancer and Imagining are the big names, but I also feel this way about Red Rifle, Golden Soul, Dramedy, and Al Khali (still can't believe he's racing at 9 years old)) to want to try to go in a different direction. With Main Sequence now gone, there just isn't much quality at the top of the division. Now I expect War Dancer and Imagining to both run well (I prefer Imagining of the two), but lately, neither of them like to win. So that leaves me with Innovation Economy, Iron Power, and Morning Calm. I don't have a strong feeling in this race, but I'm intrigued by Iron Power. I don't think there will be a ton of pace unless Red Rifle and War Dancer decide to push him, and New York jockeys are notorious for not being aggressive early in the race, especially on the turf. It's a step up in class, but he's been running similar numbers in comparison to the bigger names in the field. Like I said, this is a bit of a shot in the dark, but he'll be a big price. I'll probably do a small WPS bet on him, but I'll more likely try to get him in the exotics with Innovation Economy, Imagining, War Dancer, and I'll throw Morning Calm in there as well.

Bowling Green selections:
1. Iron Power (4) 15-1
2. Innovation Economy (7) 5-2
3. Imagining (3) 3-1

Jim Dandy Stakes (Saratoga, Saturday Race 10)

It'll be a four horse field, as three horses are scratching to run in the Haskell. Remaining horses are Frammento, Japan, Texas Red, and Frosted. Definitely not a betting race. I'll go with Texas Red to beat Frosted- he finally gets back to running 2 turns, which is what he wants to do. But I won't have any money on this race. I won't even bother putting down the morning lines, because they won't be anywhere near what they'll actually be with the defections.

Jim Dandy selections:
1. Texas Red (3)
2. Frosted (7)
3. Japan (2)

Haskell Stakes (Monmouth, Sunday Race 12)

I won't be trying to beat American Pharoah here, but there could be some value in the exotics if played right. To me, there are four other horse that have a chance to finish in the exotics- Upstart, Competitive Edge, Keen Ice, and Mr. Jordan. Of those four, I'm most against Competitive Edge. He's the most talented of those four, but I also think he's a one turn horse, and I can't get past how awful he looked on the Belmont undercard. And, in addition to that, there is a lot of early speed, which will further hurt his chances. I'm kicking him out completely of the top three spots. Of the other three, I like the pace setup that Keen Ice should get, as I'm expecting a fair to fast pace. Upstart has a history of running a big effort his first start off of a layoff, so even though I've never been his biggest fan, I can't dismiss him. And Mr. Jordan, in six lifetime starts, has 5 wins and 2 seconds. Granted, he hasn't beaten much, and his one loss was a trouncing at the hands of Competitive Edge, but that was off a layoff for him. I could see him sneaking in to third, if things break right. In order, the secondary contenders for me goes Keen Ice, Upstart, and Mr. Jordan.

Haskell selections:
1. American Pharoah (4) 1-5
2. Keen Ice (6) 12-1
3. Upstart (1) 6-1

 

Would love to see this. She definitely would have a chance- there isn't a horse that you really fear in there, especially with Bayern not running as well this year. I still have a tough time imagining a horse sired by Henny Hughes go a mile and a quarter. But she's already proven that she can outrun her pedigree.

 

The Whitney is going to be an absolute war:

1. Honor Code (3-1)
2. Tonalist (4-1)
3. Noble Bird (5-1)
4. Liam's Map (6-1)
5. Moreno (12-1)
6. V.E. Day (8-1)
7. Lea (9/2)
8. Coach Inge (15-1)
9. Wicked Strong (20-1)
10. Normandy Invasion (30-1)

That's an incredible field.

 

Whitney Stakes (Saturday Race 9, Saratoga)

Going to break this one down by post position, because it’s that strong of a field.

1. Honor Code (3-1): I will be trying to beat him. His Met Mile was great, but whenever he has gone two turns, he hasn’t been the same horse. His last two turn start was in the Alysheba, where he finished 5th (Noble Bird finished 2nd in that race). I just don’t think he has the same closing kick when forced to run around that second turn.

2. Tonalist (4-1): I do think he’ll get a good setup in this spot, and he’s a logical contender here. With that said, I’m disappointed that he couldn’t win in the Suburban over a horse in Effinex that is not all that special. There’s also reason to question whether he runs as well as Saratoga as he does at Belmont. Going back to his Peter Pan win last year, he’s run 100+ Beyers in 7 of his 9 starts. The only 2 he didn’t were his two Saratoga starts. So while I’ll use him in exotics, he won’t be my top pick.

3. Noble Bird (5-1): He gets better with each race he runs, and he beat a good horse in Lea and a decent horse in Hoppertunity last time out in the Stephen Foster. He should set a good stalking trip. And he doesn’t have the name recognition that other horses have in this field, so I don’t see his price falling too much from his morning line. I’m picking him second, but I’ll use him in all spots.

4. Liam’s Map (6-1): He’s the wildcard in this race. He might have the most upside of any horse in this race, but at the same time, this is a major step up in class. I don’t like the pace scenario for him, with Moreno right to his outside. And I also think it’s worth pointing out that his two prior jockeys, Javier Castellano (Honor Code) and John Velasquez (Tonalist), are sticking with other horses (not that Mike Smith is a bad consolation). I’m not going to use him, but he scares me. And down the road, if I had to pick one horse from this field to beat American Pharoah, he’s probably it, because I feel like I know the upside for horses like Tonalist, but I have no clue with Liam’s Map how good he could be.

5. Moreno (12-1): Last year’s Whitney winner will be the likely pace setter. Historically, he runs his best races at Saratoga, but this is the toughest field he’s faced here, and with Liam’s Map, he’ll have some pressure up front. I just think others are better than him, and I won’t be using him.

6. V.E. Day (8-1): Another horse that has historically run well at Saratoga (2 for 2, including last year’s Travers), but he had far and away the best trip of the top three (with Wicked Strong and Tonalist) that day, and since then, he’s been fairly average. He’s another horse I’ll be against.

7. Lea (9-2): He’s probably the horse that is most likely to finish in the top 3 from this group. But, other than his win in the Donn in 2014, when he runs against this quality of competition, he runs his race, but has often found one better. Still, he’s a horse that has to be used.

8. Coach Inge (SCR): He’s scratching to run in the Pacific Classic.

9. Wicked Strong (20-1): I think his form is dirtied up considerably. Looking at his last three races, his Excelsior was a pure prep for the Met Mile, he got squeezed near the break in the Met Mile, and last time out was put on the turf- a race that, once again, was purely a race to get in further conditioning. And, for what it’s worth, Jimmy Jerkens is very successful with horses moving from the turf to dirt. He’s run very well both times at Saratoga (and finished ahead of Tonalist each time), and should be able to sit a decent trip in midpack. He’ll be my top pick.

10. Normandy Invasion (30-1): One of my all-time favorite horses, and I so badly want to use him. But he simply hasn’t been running as well as the other horses in this field have this year. Because of my history with him, I may have a token WPS bet on him, and he’ll be a monster price, but realistically, I wouldn’t advise others to bet him.

Whitney selections:

1. Wicked Strong (9)
2. Noble Bird (3)
3. Lea (7)
4.Tonalist (2)

 

Honor Code proved me wrong, but that was an absolute perfect setup for him. Liam's Map was the best horse.

 

He'll race at least once more. Maybe twice, but I think that racing once is more likely at this time.

As long as everything goes well, he'll be pointed to the Travers.

 

Pacific Classic looks like a decent race, although the quality doesn't look near as good as the Whitney did earlier this month. But Beholder, Catch a Flight, Bayern, Hoppertunity, Hard Aces, and Red Vine make up a pretty solid top 6.

I probably won't be betting, but Red Vine could intrigue me at the right price. And I do think he's the one horse of those six that could drift the most in the wagering, as he's not as well known as the others.

It is nice to see Jess's Dream finally entered in a race. Rachel Alexandra's other foal, Rachel's Valentina, actually beat her to the race track earlier this month. She won her debut, and actually looked pretty good in doing so. Not sure what she will do next, but I would think they would try a stakes race. Maybe the Spinaway?



We'll see what happens with Jess's Dream, but just solely from Rachel's Valentina, Rachel Alexandra is ahead of Zenyatta in terms of being a broodmare. Cozmic One has disappointed each time, and Ziconic (her 2-year old) hasn't raced yet, but also hasn't been all that strong of a worker in the morning.