Official Horse Racing Thread

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by mtsucalico85, Apr 9, 2015.

  1. POWESHOW

    POWESHOW Social Critic
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    The post positions are announced tomorrow at 330pm. After that I will begin handicapping every race on the card that night. The following day I will be meeting up with my betting partner (no homo) and we will be discussing the races. He doesn't know nearly as much as me (and I really don't know shit) but it will be nice to run ideas off of somebody else and finalize my picks. I'm really just hoping that he sees some of the things I see.

    If I get everything all lined up and handicapped I will post my picks for each race. THAT said the others in this thread would almost certainly have much better selections than me as they are more experienced and simply better.... BUT I will post my selections and possibly some notes for some or all of the races, especially as it pertains to pace matchups.
     
  2. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    I'll have my Saturday stakes picks up here sometime Friday afternoon/evening. Some of them may just be quick and dirty selections, but if there is a race that interests me more than the others in terms of betting, I'll try to expand my thoughts on those races.
     
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  3. POWESHOW

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    ATTN EVERYBODY: USE THESE PICKS INSTEAD OF MY PICKS
     
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  4. POWESHOW

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    mtsucalico85 have you fooled around with thoro-graphs at all? I was checking them out, looking at some of the past examples of the week, the most recent Charles Town Classic and I was pretty impressed with what I saw.

    It wouldn't ever be a normal purchase for me as they are $25 for a card, but on big race days they might be worth it.
     
  5. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    I tend to be more pen and paper when I handicap, but I also begin by looking at pace setup- whether I expect it to be faster or slower than an average race for the distance. And even if I think a slower pace will develop, do I think the pace could still be contested? On top of that, I like looking at race replays, as it can be a good way to find horses that may have had subtle trouble that may not be picked up upon or, in reverse (and this really only applies to stakes horses), whether trouble is being overstated a bit.

    The other thing that is important is to let price be your guide. On serious handicapping days, I'll often make a value line to determine what I think a horse's chances of actually winning a race are, and compare that to the actual odds to find inefficiencies in the betting. So if I were to use the Derby as an example, let's say I have Nyquist valued at 4-1; Mohaymen at 10-1; Mor Spirit at 10-1; and Danzing Candy at 12-1, and those horses have odds at 4-1; 9-1; 12-1; and 20-1, respectively, then for me, Danzing Candy would be the bet, even if I think the other three may be more likely winners, because the value I have assigned his chances is much higher than those other horses. Now there is a certain cutoff- technically, a horse that I think should be 50-1 going off at 90-1 is good value, but I don't think enough of that horses chances to warrant a bet.

    It's also important to realize that you don't have to bet every race you handicap. If you think a horse is likely to win, but he goes off at 6-5 or something like that, there is no real upside in betting him to win. Now if there is a longshot behind him that you like, maybe you try to connect the two in an exacta, but otherwise it is just a race to watch, not bet.
     
  6. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Not really, I've seen a race here or there as examples, kind of like you, but never have actually utilized them. There are quite a few people that swear by them, though, especially within the horse racing industry.
     
  7. POWESHOW

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    This is what I struggle with most. If I put the work into a race, I want to bet it. I've gotten considerably better at not betting every race in the past month because I've really been focusing on this aspect of my game, but I'm still not where I want to be.

    And for Rasheed Wallace the price thing is absolutely crucial. I never bet a horse at 1-1 odds, I look for at the very, very least 5-2 and in larger fields more like 7-2, preferably even larger than this, 6-1 is optimal. That said, IF I do really like a horse that is going off at 1-1 I'll look to play that horse in an exacta and cash a little more money.

    I am also primarily a 2-horse bettor so playing horses that represent prices are absolutely crucial to the way that I play, hence the reason I find 6-1+ being optimal.
     
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  8. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Derby post positions and morning line odds:

    1. Trojan Nation, Gryder/Gallagher, 50-1
    2. Suddenbreakingnews, Quinonez/Von Hemel, 20-1
    3. Creator, Santana Jr./Asmussen, 10-1
    4. Mo Tom, Lanerie/Amoss, 20-1
    5. Gun Runner, Geroux/Asmussen, 10-1
    6. My Man Sam, Ortiz Jr./Brown, 20-1
    7. Oscar Nominated, Leparoux/Maker, 50-1
    8. Lani, Take/Matsunaga, 30-1
    9. Destin, Castellano/Pletcher, 15-1
    10. Whitmore, Espinoza/Moquett, 20-1
    11. Exaggerator, Desormeaux/Desormeaux, 8-1
    12. Tom’s Ready, Hernandez Jr./Stewart, 30-1
    13. Nyquist, Gutierrez/O’Neill, 3-1
    14. Mohaymen, Alvarado/McLaughlin, 10-1
    15. Outwork, Velasquez/Pletcher, 15-1
    16. Shagaf, Rosario/Brown, 20-1
    17. Mor Spirit, Stevens/Baffert, 12-1
    18. Majesto, Jaramillo/Delgado, 30-1
    19. Brody’s Cause, Saez/Romans, 12-1
    20. Danzing Candy, Smith/Sise, 15-1

    Interesting that almost all of the speed drew the outside positions (namely 13 through 20). Brody's Cause is the only closer in that group, while you can make the case that every horse 1-12 other than Destin and Gun Runner are at their best closing.
     
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  9. Cza

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    Long way out for Candy to set the pace. Trojan Nation drawing 1 doesn't help at all. This is going to be a tricky one to call.
     
  10. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    It might not be ideal, but I don't think the 20 post is terrible for him. He's outside the other potential speed horses (namely Outwork and Nyquist), which I like, and he'll be the last horse loaded into the gate, so there is less time to get anxious in the gate as he did in the Santa Anita Derby. And it is a long run going into the far turn, so he'll have more than enough time to get over without having horses pressing him on both sides.

    The 20 post in this Derby would have been more of a negative for a horse that runs from mid-pack or further back. So I think Brody's Cause at 19 probably drew a worse post than Danzing Candy did. But the draw didn't affect my thoughts a whole lot among the horses I am considering. Wasn't ever going to use Trojan Nation, and likely wasn't using Suddenbreakingnews, either, and they probably had the worst draws in the field.
     
  11. POWESHOW

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    I mean, Suddenbreakingnews was most likely going to be sitting far back no matter what, right? In this case he's already set up to sit on the rail and doesn't even have to work to get it. Am I misinterpreting this?
     
  12. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Almost any other year, I'd agree with this, and wouldn't think it is the end of the world for a closer to be breaking from the two post. But with so many closers just to his outside (Creator, Mo Tom, and My Man Sam are 3 of the next 4), those horses will try to get closer to the rail, while Trojan Nation will want to make sure he can hold his spot and may break outward a bit to give him space from the rail to work with, and I could easily see him being squeezed a bit trying to get his spot.
     
  13. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    I also agree with the notion that Oscar Nominated and Destin did not draw all that well, just because they will start next to Lani, and who knows what the hell he will do.
     
  14. POWESHOW

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    Now Brody's Cause..... now that horse is completely fucked.
     
  15. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Yeah, of the horses I'm considering, he's the one I like the least in terms of post draw. The only reason I don't loathe it is that he is surrounded by most of the speed in the outer half of the field, so I think he could have room to work with coming out of the gate. He'll still need to have things go his way to not be forced four wide around the first turn, though.
     
  16. POWESHOW

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    Derby Day PP's now available.
     
  17. Rasheed Wallace

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    Last question for now and hopefully it isn't a dumb ass one... Can you direct me to where I should be looking on http://www.trks2day.com/trks2day.html

    I see some tracks listed and then "D01", "T01", etc. When I click one, it shows upcoming races for "this sires progeny." Is there a way to look based on day, track, race # or just mess around in these until you find race you are looking for?

    Thanks again for the help.
     
  18. POWESHOW

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    [​IMG]

    Cycle to whatever day you are looking for. As of now most of Saturday's races are not up yet (this obviously isn't an official site of anything, just a fan site of sorts that collects free PP's). Once you cycle to the date you want, click the race you want and then yeah, you're going to have to find it in the sire progeny page.... but they are all sorted by date so usually they aren't too hard to find. You'll have to do this for every race... it's a hassle BUT the PP's are free so it is what it is.

    OR

    You can just sign up for a Twinspires account and you get all PP's in one PDF file for an given track as long as you play the track and most tracks let you play as little as 10cents if you play a superfecta.
     
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  19. POWESHOW

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    If anybody wants the Derby day PP's for Churchill I will email them to you if you post your email address OR if you PM me your email address. I will do this for anybody and everybody even if you live in Alabama.

    Here is the dropbox file with the Brisnet PP's for Churchill on Saturday:

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/bxfikivd4apdgoy/cdx0507y.pdf?dl=0
     
  20. POWESHOW

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    Came home from work, saw that Juba was racing so I slapped down a couple of bucks on him without looking at PP's because I fucking love Juba... 7-1 winner.
    Take a nap.
    Wake up and realize that a downhill turf race is poppin' off in 8 minutes so I break down the race real quick, play my 'outside speed on the downhill' angle.... 8-1 winner.
    Gloat.
    Break down Golden Gate Field's 6th, notice a lone early in the race.... 7-2 winner.

    Probably done for the day. Fun day though after taking the week off to prep for Derby day.
     
  21. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Not going to go through the undercard of the Oaks (frankly, there isn't anything that really jumps out at me). But for the Oaks, I'm looking to get Taxable (14) into the exotics. She is lightly raced (only three career starts), has shown steady improvement, should sit a good trip in mid-pack, and should want every bit of the 1 1/8 miles. I'll use her mostly with Rachel's Valentina (11) and Land Over Sea (13), who I think are the two most likely winners, but may also throw in Cathryn Sophia (12) and Go Maggie Go (4). Don't like those two quite as much as the top three, though, as I have concerns about how far Cathryn Sophia really wants to go, and while I liked Go Maggie Go's last race and she'll be a decent price, her last race did come on a sloppy track against a weaker field. Big step up in class for her.

    I'm picking Rachel's Valentina on top reluctantly, since I just think she's the best horse, but given her pedigree as the daughter of Rachel Alexandra, there will be no value in betting her to win. Especially in the Oaks, given what Rachel Alexandra did when she demolished the field in the 2009 Oaks. That will obviously be the big story line tomorrow.

    Kentucky Oaks selections:

    1. Rachel's Valentina (11) 7-2
    2. Taxable (14) 20-1
    3. Land Over Sea (13) 5-1
     
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  22. POWESHOW

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    Anybody want to go in $$$ on the rest of the thoro-graph numbers at Churchill on Saturday? $25 total...
     
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  23. petey23

    petey23 Well-Known Member
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    I put the 11-14-13 in a box. Thanks in advance!
     
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  24. Cza

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    I'd be in, but kinda late to get this together.
     
  25. Rasheed Wallace

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    I'm in. Just let me know.
     
  26. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    I don't get the love for Lewis Bay in the Oaks. Early betting has her as the 5-1 second choice. Just didn't think the Gazelle was that strong of a race. I see no reason she should be behind Land Over Sea, who is 7-1 right now.

    Cathryn Sophia is pretty dead in the betting at 8-1 as well. But I'm not surprised to see Rachel's Valentina ending up being a clear favorite (she's currently at 2-1).
     
  27. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    I'm not betting the Edgewood- I think Catch a Glimpse is just best. But I do think Jeremy's Legacy is somewhat interesting at a big price.
     
  28. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Haven't changed my thoughts on the Oaks. Still emphasizing the 11-13-14 box. I'm also mixing in the 4 and the 12, but no matter what, I will need the 14 to finish top three to win.
     
  29. POWESHOW

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    Rachel just sat too close to the pace. Cathryn waited and exploded.

    I would have hit the trifecta if it was Rachel winning instead and I really thought she would easily win this race given her performance in her last race after the long-ass layoff. Woulda, shoulda, coulda.

    On to tomorrow
     
  30. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Still a little surprised that Cathryn Sophia ran that well at that distance, but with no Songbird, she was the most talented horse in the race.

    Taxable didn't run a step that race.
     
  31. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    My thoughts for tomorrow. Fair warning, this is long.

    Derby undercard:

    Race 6: Churchill Distaff Turf Mile:

    Not going to bet this race. Tepin (1) is just in incredible form right now, and is the best horse running on Derby Day. She’s also likely going to be 2-5.

    1. Tepin (1) 1-2
    2. Isabella Sings (4) 3-1
    3. Rainha Da Bateria (9) 12-1

    Race 7: Churchill Downs:

    This should be a fun race, and it has two of my current favorites in Kobe’s Back (1) and Barbados (4). I always thought that Kobe’s Back had the potential to be the best sprinter in the country if he could only learn to break well. He still doesn’t break great, but at least he hasn’t spotted the field 3+ lengths his last two races, and he was able to win both of those. I’m hoping he doesn’t spot them more than a length to start, and then can come with his run. Will use Barbados as well, I think he’s slowly getting back to his good form as well, but I prefer Kobe’s Back the most. Salutos Amigos (8) is logical, and have to use him in exotics. Speightster (6) may end up being the best horse in this field- his three starts last year were very impressive. But this is just a starting point for him- his connections are pointing for the Met Mile, so I don’t think he’ll be cranked first time out. So as good as I think he will be, I’m willing to let him beat me here.

    1. Kobe’s Back (1) 4-1
    2. Barbados (4) 12-1
    3. Salutos Amigos (8) 5-2

    Race 8: Humana Distaff:

    There are four standout horses here- Stonetastic (2), Taris (8), Birdatthewire (9), and Wavell Avenue (10). I’m most against Stonetastic of those, as there should be a lot of pace, and I’ve always kind of seen her as a need the lead type. Don’t think she’ll necessarily get that. I like Birdatthewire and Wavell Avenue fairly evenly, since the pace should set up well for them, and given the expected prices, I’ll lean towards Birdatthewire.

    1. Birdatthewire (9) 5-1
    2. Wavell Avenue (10) 3-1
    3. Taris (8) 5-2

    Race 9: American Turf:

    No strong opinions here. Think Airoforce (1) will be the best turf horse long term, but, dirt/synthetic surface or not, he’s looked so bad the past couple races that it is hard to trust him. I think Beach Patrol (4) might be okay, so he’ll be my top pick, and if you want a long shot that could maybe hit the board, I wouldn’t rule out Surgical Strike (12), but honestly, I won’t have any money on this race.

    1. Beach Patrol (4) 8-1
    2. Dressed in Hermes (11) 5-1
    3. Surgical Strike (12) 20-1

    Race 10: Pat Day Mile

    Not sure what Mike Battaglia was thinking making American Freedom (11) 6-1 and co-3rd choice on the morning line. He’s more likely to be 6-5 than 6-1, and realistically, I think he goes off at 2-1. If his debut on a wet track translates to a dry track, and given that he’s been firing bullets working out on dry tracks, there is no reason it shouldn’t, he’s just better than these. If you are betting this race, I would look at connecting him in an exacta with a closer, since I expect a hot pace. Discreetness (1), Forevamo (7), and Fellowship (9) are the logical closers, and I prefer them in that order. Think this might be too short for Fellowship, while I think the cutbacks in distance will help the other two. So I’ll probably just have a small exacta with American Freedom on top of Discreetness and Forevamo. Wouldn’t make any huge bets here.

    1. American Freedom (11) 6-1
    2. Discreetness (1) 12-1
    3. Forevamo (7) 6-1

    Race 11: Woodford Reserve Turf Classic:

    Lot of options here, with Big Blue Kitten (12) the safest bet to hit the board. He’s coming off of a layoff, but he typically does okay off of them. I do think he’s better going a bit longer, but I don’t have huge reservations with him at 1 1/8 miles. I’m more apt to be against the second choice, Slumber (6), who is also coming off of a layoff- I think he’s more likely to need a race. Tourist (10) will take some money, but I think his best distance is a mile. The horses that interest me the most are Bolo (3) and Divisidero (8). Bolo came off of a big layoff to win his first start as a 4YO in the Arcadia, and that was against a good group of milers. He ran okay finishing second last time out, but the surface that day had some give in the ground that he might not have liked. He should get a firm surface this time around. Not sure he wants to go much further, but 1 1/8 miles should be in his grasp. But I’m going Divisidero on top. He hasn’t won yet this year in two races, but those races were relatively paceless races at a distance shorter than he likes. He’ll get more pace this time around, and the extra 1/8 mile will help. His best race in his career also came at Churchill during the undercard of last year’s Derby, so he loves running on the Churchill turf. I don’t think I’ll get his 15-1 morning line, but even at half that price, he’s worth playing. I’ll box Big Blue Kitten, Bolo, and Divisidero in an exacta and a trifecta, and may throw in World Approval (11) at a price in the underneath slots, though I don’t think he can win. And I’ll also have win bets on both Divisidero and Bolo. This will lbe the undercard race I will be most invested in.

    1. Divisidero (8) 15-1
    2. Bolo (3) 8-1
    3. Big Blue Kitten (12) 5-2

    Kentucky Derby:
    Race 12: Kentucky Derby:

    I usually do this going horse by horse, but this time, I’m going just going to put them in groups with how I look at them and give general comments about them.

    -Not using, and want no part of: Trojan Nation (1), Mo Tom (4), Oscar Nominated (7), Lani (8), Tom’s Ready (12), Shagaf (16)

    Probably not fair to Shagaf, who I like a hell of a lot more as a horse than the other five in the group, but I just don’t think any of these are good enough to hit the board right now. Shagaf has a good future ahead of him, but don’t think the Derby will be his day. Mo Tom isn’t a bad horse, but he’s getting way too much hype based off of two bad trips that, honestly, didn’t cost him a win in either race. Think he was second best either way both times.

    -Not using, but scare me: Suddenbreakingnews (2), Gun Runner (5), Whitmore (10), Exaggerator (11), Outwork (15)

    These horses were all under consideration for me, but I wanted to cut my play down to nine horses, and these were the ones who just missed the cut. My issue with Suddenbreakingnews is that I think he’s going to be last going around the far turn, and just has too much to do. Gun Runner should get a good trip, but I don’t know if he’s good enough. He had two good trips in his wins, and was still on the slower side speed figure wise. With Whitmore, I love his talent, but he runs like a horse that wants to cut back in distance, not go longer. Despite his Santa Anita win, I also think Exaggerator is more of a miler. He just had an absolute perfect setup with the blazing pace and the wet track. A saying I’ve heard that applies to Exaggerator: a 1-turn horse can win a 2-turn race, when a 2-turn race is run like a 1-turn race. As for Outwork, he’s been working well and should sit a good trip. I just question how good he really is. He was staggering home in the Wood, and wet track or not, seeing Trojan Nation almost beat him just soured my view of the Wood horses.

    -Using in exotics: Creator (3), My Man Sam (6), Destin (9), Majesto (18), Brody’s Cause (19)

    This is where the closers I like the most show up- namely Creator, My Man Sam, and Brody’s Cause. I do slightly prefer Creator and My Man Sam over Brody’s Cause, as I thought they drew better, but I see them fairly equal in terms of ability, and they should all handle the distance without any problems. My Man Sam has the most upside to me of the threeDestin should sit a good trip stalking just behind the leaders, and has the fastest last out Beyer figure on a dry track. His biggest negatives are a) his 8-week layoff and b) he’s never run further than 1 1/16 miles. But Pletcher usually does better with fresher horses than most other trainers, so that doesn’t bother me, and Destin is a full brother to Creative Cause, who finished top 5 in the 2012 Derby and finished 3rd in the Preakness that year, so I’m not too worried about the distance. He’s the most likely in this group to win, but I just like a couple others slightly more that I will give preference to. Majesto is my long shot horse that I will give a chance to. He has more foundation for the distance than any other horse in the race, has been steadily improving with each race, and should be forwardly placed enough to get first run on the closers. He also has been training very well. It’s possible that he just might not be good enough to contend in a race like this- he certainly needs to take another step forward- but at the price he’ll be at, he’s worth using.

    -Win contenders: Nyquist (13), Mohaymen (14), Danzing Candy (20)

    I don’t think he’s good value from a betting to win standpoint, but Nyquist is simply the most likely winner of the race. He should get a good trip, and he’s certainly a game and tenacious horse. I still wonder if he truly wants longer distances, though. The Uncle Mo part of the pedigree is getting most of the focus, but it is his bottom half of the pedigree that worries me more- it’s basically all sprint. That is what I thought last year, though, and American Pharoah came back to bite me on that end. Not letting that happen again to me (and no, I don’t think he’s anywhere near as good as American Pharoah), but he's a horse I would love to beat. With Mohaymen, his Florida Derby was brutal, but he didn’t have to like the wet track, he was wide throughout, and he didn’t have the motivation to win that Nyquist had, as Nyquist was racing for a $1 million bonus. It’s hard to overlook his three prior races, where he won easily (though, it is fair in hindsight to ask what he was beating in Flexibility, Greenpointcrusader, and Zulu). He’s been full of energy in the mornings, which could be a positive or a negative, depending on how he harnesses it. He was my number one horse all the way until the Florida Derby, and I can’t completely jump off of him yet. Danzing Candy is the value of the race. His win in the San Felipe Stakes remains, in my view, the best prep race this season. It was clear something wasn’t right with him in the Santa Anita Derby, as he wasn’t well behaved before the race and he was unable to settle, going way too fast for his own good. He didn’t have to like the sloppy track, either. There isn’t a ton of pace to go along with him, so I’m banking on him to set a much more reasonable pace, and that could set up something similar to Palace Malice in the 2013 Belmont. He’ll be my second choice, knowing full well that if he can’t relax, he’s likely finishing in the bottom three.

    -Top pick/key horse: Mor Spirit (17)

    He’s the one horse I have the least amount of questions about. He’s never run a bad race, he should be able to run all day, and he should sit a good trip. Even with things not going perfectly his last two runs (he didn’t have the smoothest trip in the San Felipe, and I don’t think he liked the wet surface in the Santa Anita Derby), he still finished with some sort of run. Every other horse, I can find a reason why I think they could throw a clunker of a race, but I struggle to do so with him. Even if Danzing Candy does run off, and puts the closers more in play, Mor Spirit should still be in a good position, as he won’t be right on the lead. He’s the most likely to hit the board, and my bets will be centered completely around that.

    Kentucky Derby picks:
    1. Mor Spirit (17) 12-1
    2. Danzing Candy (20) 15-1
    3. My Man Sam (6) 20-1
    4. Mohaymen (14) 10-1

    My bets:
    $1 tri:
    17
    3, 6, 9, 13, 14, 18, 19, 20
    3, 6, 9, 13, 14, 18, 19, 20
    Cost: $56

    $1 tri:
    13, 14, 20
    17
    3, 6, 9, 13, 14, 18, 19, 20
    Cost: $21

    $1 tri:
    13, 14, 20
    3, 6, 9, 13, 14, 18, 19, 20
    17
    Cost: $21

    $0.50 tri:
    3, 6, 9, 18, 19
    17
    3, 6, 9, 13, 14, 18, 19, 20
    Cost: $17.50

    $0.50 tri:
    3, 6, 9, 18, 19
    3, 6, 9, 13, 14, 18, 19, 20
    17
    Cost: $17.50

    Total cost of bets: $133
     
    matadorjim, Merica, snowfx2 and 4 others like this.
  32. POWESHOW

    POWESHOW Social Critic
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    REMINDER: mtsucalico85 is better than me at this. He knows more, he has better insight. He formats better. He's just better. If you don't know what you are doing and you are deciding between his picks and mine... USE HIS.

    Here is my unformatted and largely incoherent picks for races 1-12 on the Kentucky Derby card:

    Races 1-5

    Churchill Downs 5/7


    Race 1

    Picks: #5 Geothermal 4-1, #4 Ulanbator 5-1

    Both horses should improve in 2nd race off of layoffs

    If I was to play one of the favorites it would be #3 Rocket Time (2/3 at CD)

    #1 only horse in for the claim


    Race 2

    Most likely: #8 Unexplained 4-1

    Interesting Horse: #4 Pinson 10-1: lost last race by 14 lengths… to Stradivari, a horse that some claim could be the best 3-year old in training.


    Race 3

    Contenders: #1 Seeking the Soul 7-2, #7 Jazzy Times 3-1 (Baffert, 460k purchase), #10 Jimbo Fallon 4-1 (Baffert), #11 Grand Candy 5-1

    Exotics: #3 Sicarius 8-1


    Most likely a Baffert horse; David Lopez flying out to Churchill specifically to ride #10 Jimbo Fallon and no other horses this weekend. Lopez is riding Baffert’s horses in the morning so Bob might be throwing him a bone here.


    Race 4

    Who fucking knows?

    IF I was playing this race (I won’t be) I’d play the #2 Crafty’s Way 5-1 OR #5 Leta Ptica 20-1 OR #7 No Interest

    I really have no idea in this race though


    Race 5

    Picks: #3 Allied Air Raid 6-1, #12 Gotham News 5-1

    Allied Air Raid coming off 6mo layoff and not a lot of workouts on the work tab. That said the last time he came off of a layoff (~2 months) he ran 2nd in a stakes race. 1W, 2Show in 3 races at this distance against superior class in each.

    Gotham News is a lightly raced 6 year old; should be fowardly placed in a race with not a ton of speed. 0-4 at this distance though.

    #4 and #10 are the other horses I would consider

    Races 6-11

    Race 6

    Pick #1 Tepin 1-2, duh.

    The ONLY horse that has a glimmer of a chance of beating her is #4 Isabella Sings 3-1 and that would take a wire job that includes double digit lengths ahead at the first and second call… This horse was 18 lengths and 13.5 lengths ahead of Tepin in the last race at 9F only getting nipped at the wire by a length. This race is 8 Furlongs so there is a chance… but not at the price you are going to get going against the best horse racing today.


    Race 7

    Most Likely: #1 Kobe’s Back 4-1

    Next Best: #8 Salutos Amigos 5-2

    Possible wire-job: #5 Limousine Liberal 9-2


    Kobe’s Back is the best horse in this field. Kobe’s Back is also horrible from the gate. *IF* Kobe breaks from the gate well, he wins this race. 2 races back Kobe’s 3rd fraction time was 22.6, the same race Salutos Amigos ran 23.8, needless to say, Kobe’s Back is going to be closing fast. I also think that this distance is perfect for this horse whereas it’s not necessarily Salutos Amigos’ best distance.


    Limousine Liberal is a legit threat to wire the field. The last time this horse ran 7 furlongs he came in 2nd in the G1 King’s Bishop to the best sprint horse on earth: Runhappy. This horse will most likely face pace pressure from the #7 Holy Boss who will most likely fade at 7F and #6 Speightster who hasn’t raced in 10 months and shouldn’t have the conditioning the run this tricky distance yet.


    My plays would be #1 Kobe’s Back or #5 Limousine Liberal


    Kinchen really likes Speightster…


    Race 8


    I have 3 strong win candidates here, #2 Stonetastic 3-1, #8 Taris 5-2, #10 Wavell Avenue 3-1…. A.K.A. the three favorites. Before I make a selection here let me break down how I see this race happening:


    #2 Stonetastic is by far the fastest horse in this field. She should easily be in first at the first call and could open up a lead of 2 lengths or so between the first call and second call. #5 Super Saks will press the pace and #6 Enchanting Lady could be pressing but will most likely be content sitting off the lead. #5 and #6 will most likely be spent by the time they hit the stretch, the question is did they press Stonetastic enough to tire her? If Stonetastic can sit on an easy lead of 1-2 lengths I believe this horse can wire the field. I believe #8 Taris will let the #5 and #6 do the dirty work and then try to blow past Stonetastic at the top of the straightaway with #10 Wavell Avenue charging fast. The winner is solely dependent on whether Stonetastic actually gets pressed.


    My pick: #8 Taris – I believe she’ll sit far enough off the lead to have enough energy to rip away from Stonetastic in the straight. Wavell avenue will be charging hard for 2nd and Stonetastic and Birdatthewire will duel for 3rd. This should be a chalky race with the only horse having a chance at disrupting the chalk being #6 Enchanting Lady.


    For the record, Jonathan Kinchen picked #9 Birdatthewire to win this race… I just don’t see It THOUGH he is back in the barn of Dale Romans whom this horse ran its best races under including a G1 win in the La Brea back in December.


    #8, #10, #2/#9 OR #2, #10, #8/#9 would be the trifectas I would play, perhaps with #6 in there to try to get a price.


    Race 9


    Picks: #4 Beach Patrol 8-1, #3 Converge 5-1


    I’ll be playing against Airoforce here though by all accounts he’s the most likely winner. Airoforce has beaten several Derby entrants including Mor Spirit and Mo Tom but has an 8th place finish and a 10th place finish so far this year. There’s probably excuses for both of those races but this coupled with Airoforce never actually routing on a firm grass surface means I really don’t know what to expect out of this horse, thus I’ll play against.


    #8 Shakhimat supposedly has a decisive speed advantage in this spot, some nice workouts but in my personal speed figures I don’t believe this horse is that much faster – if at all – than Beach Patrol or Azar. For this horse to win he’ll have to sit with an uncontested lead, I don’t see it.


    #11 Dressed in Hermes outclassed.

    #13 Azar could be a very nice price. I would almost assuredly play him at his morning line odds of 10-1.


    #3 and #6 are the best closers, #3 should be more forwardly placed.


    #4 Beach Patrol looks damn promising, has my favorite turf jockey Flavien Prat aboard and should sit a nice trip. If I was playing just one horse, it would be this one.


    Race 10


    Picks: #11 American Freedom 6-1 #9 Fellowship 5-1


    Quickly, #5 Imperial Hint 15-1 has never trailed at any point in any race, he’s #2 in my speed ratings… but he’s never beaten anybody worth note. I really don’t think he’ll win this race, I don’t even think he’ll finish in the money… but he’s really jumping off the page BUT he should be dueling with #6 Sharp Azteca for the lead so they’ll probably kill each other off.


    The winner in this race is #11 American Freedom. There is a lot of buzz around this horse, this horse WILL NOT go off at 6-1, probably more than likely 2-1 to 3-1. 500k Baffert purchase. Working out insanelt well at Churchill, highlest last race speed figure (in only race). Can rate off the lead. There’s just a lot to like about this horse.


    #9 Fellowship finished 3rd in the Florida derby beating Moyhamen. This doesn’t mean a ton considering Mohaymen was trying to beat Nyquist instead of actually win the race and in doing so spent himself out of the race… but nonetheless, this horse beat Mohaymen and should be closing pretty nicely.


    #12 Unbridled Outlaw 5-1 is trained by Dale Romans and at one point was thought to be the best Derby contender in Romans’ barn that included Brody’s Cause. That didn’t quite work out but this is still a solid horse. Not a win threat though.


    #7 Forevamo could potentially win this race. Beat Mo Tom, second to Gun Runner in the Risen Star. I would focus on this horse in my exotics moreso than actually winning this race.


    #1 Discreetness worth a look with a win over Suddenbreakingnews. Definite price in exotics.


    #2 Ralis is a G1 winner (didn’t see a lot of competition in this race though) but has shown nothing since.


    Race 11


    Picks: #8 Divisidero 15-1, #11 World Approval 20-1

    Anybody could win this damn race.


    So here’s the thing, #12 Big Blue Kitten 5-2 and #6 Slumber 3-1 are the two best horses in this field. However, they are both coming off 6 month layoffs so I’ll try to beat them.


    There’s a lot of hype around Divisidero in this spot. He’s the defending champion of this race. He’s working out nicely, he has two races under his belt coming into the race and he’s improving as only a 4-year old. I don’t think you’ll get 15-1 on him, probably more than 8-1, but he’s definitely worth a play here.


    #11 World Approval is another 4-year old with a lot of the same characteristics as Divisidero. He’s 12-5-1-2 lifetime with a couple of G3 wins, a third in this race last year and is recently coming off of a 2nd place in a G2. He also has two races under his belt coming into this race.


    #3 Bolo 8-1 is a threat to be forwardly placed, just sitting off of the lead or on it and should accordingly get a nice trip.


    I don’t have #10 Tourist 8-1 as a threat to win this race, but holy hell is this a classy horse. He’s raced in five G1’s and been in the money in 3 of them.


    Any horse could win this race. It’ll probably come down to who gets the best trip. I’d play whatever horses have a nice price and play against the #6 and #12 even though the #12 appears to be by far the best horse in this field (that layoff though….)

    KENTUCKY DERBY

    Race #12 – Kentucky Derby


    There’s two ways to play this race. You either think that it is going to be a fast pace with some heat on Danzig Candy and a horse off the pace closes into the win OR it’s a slow(er) pace and a horse forwardly placed wins. I think it’s the latter, I also think that the most likely winner in this race is a California horse.


    I don’t even know where to begin with this so I’ll just use the same sort of format as mtsucalico85


    Horses I will not be playing:


    #1 Trojan Nation, #7 Oscar Nominated, #8 Lani, #12 Tom’s Ready, #16 Shagaf


    #1 Trojan Nation, no explanation needed.

    #7 Oscar Nominated – Turf horse won his way into the derby on a turf-like surface

    #8 Lani, if he beats me he beats me. This is the best bred horse in the derby but nobody knows what the hell to expect with this horse. I don’t think anybody would be surprised if he jumped a rail and started running on the grass. I also think that a lot of people would just shrug their shoulders and move on if this horse did anything in this race… you just can’t play him.

    #12 Tom’s Ready, simply not classy enough for this field. Hasn’t beaten anybody of any significance

    #16 Shagaf – Wood Memorial competition was lacking; beaten by Trojan Nation, best win came in the Gotham where he beat Laoban. Just not feelin’ this horse.


    Horses that I won’t be using but scare me:

    #4 Mo Tom, #5 Gun Runner, #9 Destin, #18 Majesto


    #4 Mo Tom – Thoro-graph numbers: 5.2, 5.3, 6.3 this year. Moving in the wrong direction. 8th ranked closer in my speed ratings.


    #5 Gun Runner – His thoro-graph numbers are surprisingly disappointing given his performance in his last two races. I don’t believe he’s faced very tough competition. His post is very nice and sets him up for a nice run… but I simply don’t think he’s as talented as the horses I’ll be using ahead of him.


    #9 Destin – Destin’s best race was his last, 56 days ago, where he beat Outwork who was racing in his first route, this was Destin’s 4th. I actually really like this horse, I think he’s a “fun” horse but between the layoff and his best race I just can’t play him.


    #18 Majesto – by all accounts this will be one of the best looking horses on Derby day. He’s improved in each of his races this year posting thoro-graph numbers of 12, 9, 7.2, 5.3. The more I consider the Florida Derby the less I take from it other than Nyquist is the best horse in this field. Majesto doesn’t even make it to Kentucky if Mohaymen attempts to win the race instead of beating Nyquist. This horse is a throw out.


    Horses on the verge of a throw out but I haven’t totally decided yet:


    #2 Suddenbreakingnews, #19 Brody’s Cause


    #2 Suddenbreakingnews – Thorograph numbers are good: 3, 4.1, 1.1. He’s going to most likely be the furthest back though and IF this race runs like I think and am planning on it running, he’s just going to have too much ground to cover.


    #19 Brody’s Cause – No show in the Tampa Derby – Thoro-graph numbers not as impressive as Suddenbreakingnews: 8, 3 this year and despite all horses around him most likely going flying by at the break, I’m still not a fan of his post position. I feel like he’s not going to be able to save ground at all and will be wide throughout.


    Horses I’ll be using in my exotics:


    #3 Creator, #6 My Man Sam, #10 Whitmore, #11 Exaggerator, #14 Mohaymen, #17 Mor Spirit


    #3 Creator – Thoro-graph numbers this year: 13.1, 5.2, 4.2, 2.1 – obviously moving in the right direction. Arkansas Derby win was solid and Rebel 3rd place finish showed he can be a bit closer at the pace call with some success. This horse is my favorite closing horse along with…


    #6 My Man Sam – Irad has been aboard both My Man Sam and Whitmore and has ended up on My Man Sam. This is another improving horse with thoro-graph numbers this year of: 6, 4, 3.2. This is a lightly raced horse on the improve with only one stakes race under his belt, a second place showing in the Blue Grass. This horse has the #2 late pace rank in my speed figures (tied with the aforementioned Creator – FWIW, Oscar Nominated is #1).


    #10 Whitmore – Thoro-graph numbers: 6.3, 4.2, 2.2, 2.2. Victor Espinoza aboard (meh), 5 for 6 ITM. This horse actually doesn’t rank very high in my speed figures and is the loosest entrant in this group. Suddenbreakingnews could jump up and replace this horse probably based upon paddock appearance.


    #11 Exaggerator – Yes Desmormeaux said this was probably a 1-mile horse. Yes he caught the ideal trip in his last race. Yes he’s probably better in the slop. But that stretch run was legendary in the SA derby, he’s ranked #2 in my total pace rankings and I think they’ve figured out where he need to be to be a contender. Thoro-graph numbers: 2.2, 2.2, 0.3.


    #14 Mohaymen – The Florida derby is a throw out as far as I’m concerned. Each race before that is competitive here today though. He was supposedly very anxious in training but I believe ended on a very strong note. He’s #2 in terms of throw-out-ability in this group behind Whitmore but unless he’s acting up in the pre-race I think he’s a real competitor to be in the money. Thoro-graph numbers: 2.2, 1, 5 (throwout)


    #17 Mor Spirit – This is the most consistent horse in this field. Thoro-graph numbers over his entire career: 8.1, 1, 5.2, 3, 3, 1.1, 4.2… worst races in the mud. If it gets muddy I’ll probably drop this horse further down. Never placed lower than 2nd place. Gary Stevens/Bob Baffert. The one thing I’m most sure of in this race is that this horse finishes in the superfecta.


    WIN CONTENDERS:


    #13 Nyquist, #15 Outwork, #20 Danzig Candy


    #13 Nyquist – This is the best horse in this field. I made a commitment to myself after the G1 Front Runner in September to play this horse until he lost. In that race Swipe briefly passed Nyquist in the stretch but Nyquist was having NONE of it and powered back to win by ¾ of a length. Seriously, if you have any questions about Nyquist, go back and watch that stretch run. This horse refuses to be passed. The only real chance any horse has of passing him is if they are tracking from far behind and he simply doesn’t sense them coming OR Danzig Cany wires the field. Thoro-graph numbers: (BC 2.3), 2.3, 3.


    #15 Outwork – By nearly all accounts this horse is having the best workouts in the AM, he looks arguably the best. He might be the biggest horse in this field and will not be thrown around at the break. This horse has fantastic speed – 2nd behind only Danzig Candy – and has been working in the morning to sit off of the pace. Being placed inside of Danzig Candy could play a strategic advantage for this horse. His loss to Destin in the Tampa Derby was his 3rd race, first route, first stakes and he’s improved each race. I don’t know much about the breeding side of this sport, BUT, he has Uncle Mo on the top side (same as Nyquist) and the bottom side features Empire Maker who was also a grandparent to American Pharaoh. It would appear that physically this horse is ultra-capable and the continuous improvement is exciting. Thoro-graph numbers: 6.3, 2.3, 1.2.


    #20 Danzig Candy – Here. Is. My. Baby. Run back to this horses San Felipe where he wired the field with splits of 46/71/103……. 46 and 71 and beats Mor Spirit and Exaggerator. IF this horse races in 46.6/71.6 he wins this race. He was not tiring running at that speed, only when he ran a 45.2/70 did he run off. He was fractious in the gate, he lost the Santa Anita Derby in the paddock. Obviously if he’s up to those fractious antics again we can probably toss him… but I think they’ve taken the necessary precautions and Mike Smith knows what he’s getting himself into this time that he wont let this horse tear off again. This horse dictates the entire race. Thoro-graph numbers: 4,1, 8.2
     
  33. Thoros of Beer

    Thoros of Beer Academy Award-Winning Actor, Tim Allen
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    Gun Runner gonna upset y'alls apple cart.
     
  34. Cza

    Cza Buns Glazing
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    I am similar to Powe and mt, a little higher on Whitmore though. He won't win, but a 4th wouldn't surprise me.

    If I had to use 4, Mohaymen/Mor Spirit/Nyquist/Whitmore.

    Keep having the feeling Mo Tom and Brody's Cause are going to ruin the day. Good luck all! Happy fucking Derby Day.
     
  35. wes tegg

    wes tegg I'm a Guy's guy, guys.
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    I heard on a podcast yesterday that Moyhamen has lost a bunch of weight. That plus the Florida derby concerns me. I'm higher on Destin than most ITT, but otherwise I like Powe's handicapping. I think I'm also going to play suddenbreakingnews to win just tbe able to cheer on his kick at the party I'm headed to.
     
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  36. POWESHOW

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    I mean, I have whitmore in my exotics. His thoro-graph numbers can't be denied.
     
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  37. wes tegg

    wes tegg I'm a Guy's guy, guys.
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    I don't really know anything about thoro-graphs. Quick and dirty on them?
     
  38. POWESHOW

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    Admittedly this is the first time I've ever used them, but as mtsucalico85 stated, those that use them - which include trainers- swear by them. I believe that thoro-graph numbers are actually the reason why Destin's connections decided to give him a 56 day layoff coming into the derby. The dirty from their website:



    Each number on a "sheet" represents a performance rating calculated by using the time of the race, beaten lengths (a proprietary formula different than generally used), ground lost or saved, weight carried, and the effect wind may or may not have had on the time of the race. The final figure is manually adjusted with a carefully crafted track variant. The lower the number the better the race. With few exceptions, there will be a figure for every race a horse has run past four years.

    Thoro-Graph figures are represented in a clear graphical format. This format makes it possible to compare horses which have run under different conditions, different distances, at different tracks, and on different days. Any handicapper or horseman can examine each horse's history, form cycle, and relative ability in today's race.

    With a little practice, you'll be able to identify each horse's distinct form cycle. Some run consistent patterns, varying from a simple good race/bad race pattern, a series of bad races after an exceptionally good effort (the "bounce" ), or more complex 'circling' patterns where a horse gradually loses its form then slowly comes around toward its original level. A "sheet player" can anticipate these moves and select horses which are not obvious to the general public. Another simple pattern is how a horse performs off a lay-off. All you have to do is look for the gaps in the horse's sheet and compare the figures it runs first time off a lay-off, whether it improves second time, and so on. And the information is shown for up to four years.

    Of course there are infinite variations in how horses run and no two are alike. There are no hard and fast rules on how to interpret patterns and form cycles. Every handicapper will come up with his or her patterns they like or dislike. Some people will only bet longshots. Others just want to have fun and cash a race no matter what the return. Whatever your style, Thoro-Graph provides all you need to make you a better, more informed player.


    If you want to learn more:
    https://www.thorograph.com/introduction.php

    And on the previous page I posted a link that includes the thoro-graphs for all of the Derby horses
     
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  39. POWESHOW

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    FWIW, all of the talk regarding the Churchill Downs Stakes (Race 7) revolves around Speighster right now. He's being called an A+ selection. I'll consider him at 4-1+ but nothing less.
     
  40. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    We see the stakes undercard pretty damn similarly. The only race we have different top picks is in Race 8, but even then, that's just us having the top four shuffled around.

    Me, you, and Cza could start the Kobe's Back fan club.
     
  41. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    I do believe, long term, he'll be the best horse for the remainder of 2016 coming out of that field. I've just heard enough talk that this is just a starting point to get him fit for the Met Mile that I'm willing to take a shot against him in the win end.

    I'm not playing exotics that race, but if I were, I wouldn't leave him out.
     
  42. Cza

    Cza Buns Glazing
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    Besides Normandy, there is probably no single horse I've lost more money on than him. Get out of the gate today Kobe, ffs.
     
  43. POWESHOW

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    Kobe's Back time!
     
  44. POWESHOW

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  45. POWESHOW

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    Steve Byk's Picks:

    2016-05-07 07:47:20



    [​IMG]


    CHURCHILL DOWNS


    POST-SCRATCHES


    1st: OC/C, 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

    Best Value: #6 Face of Winner 12-1
    Next Best: #5 Geothermal 4-1
    Exotics Use: #2 Rise Up 5-2
    Super Add: #3 Rocket Time 3-1


    2nd: OC/N1X, 3yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

    Best Value: #4 Pinson 10-1
    Next Best: #3 Divine Interventio 7-2
    Exotics Use: #1e Oxley entry 5-2
    Super Add: #8 Unexplained 4-1


    3rd: MSW, 3+, 6.5f (P5, P3, DD)

    Most Likely: #7 Jazzy Times 3-1
    Best Value: #11 Grand Candy 5-1
    Next Best: #10 Jimbo Fallon 4-1
    Exotics Use: #1 Seeking the Soul 7-2


    4th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

    A bad group that should make you think twice about heavy investment in the P5..

    Best Value: #2 Crafty's Way 5-1
    Next Best: #1 Havana Dream 4-1
    Exotics Use: #6 Res Ipsa 6-1
    Super Add: #9 Koala Lake 15-1


    5th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD)

    Best Value: #3 Allied Air Raid 6-1
    Next Best: #12 Gotham News 5-1
    Exotics Use: #10 Freestyler 4-1
    Super Add: #2 Bold Conquest 9-2


    P4 Grid:

    2: 3-4 (A), 1-8 (B), 2 (C)
    3: 7 (A), - (B), 10-11 (C)
    4: 1-2-6 (A), 9-10-11 (B), - (C)
    5: 3-10-12 (A), 1-2-4 (B), - (C)

    Simple (A+B): 4x1x6x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
    All A's: 2x1x3x3 = $18


    6th: 31st Churchill Downs Turf Mile (G2), F&M-4+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

    Most Likely: #1 Tepin 1-2
    Best Value: #9 Rainha Da Bateria 12-1
    Next Best: #4 Isabella Sings 3-1
    Exotics Use: #7 She's Not Here 15-1


    7th: 82nd Churchill Downs (G2), 4+, 7f (P6, P3, DD)

    Best Value: #6 Speightster 6-1
    Next Best: #5 Limousine Liberal 9-2
    Exotics Use: #7 Holy Boss 8-1
    Super Add: #9 Catalina Red 15-1


    P5 Grid:

    3: 7 (A), 10-11 (B), - (C)
    4: 1-2-6 (A), 9-10-11 (B), - (C)
    5: 3-10-12 (A), 1-2-4 (B), - (C)
    6: 1 (A), - (B), 4-9 (C)
    7: 6 (A), - (B), 1-3-5-7-8-9 (C)

    Simple (A+B): 3x6x6x1x1 = 108 x .50 = $54
    All A's: 1x3x3x1x1 = $9


    8th: 30th Humana Distaff (G1), F&M-4+, 7f (P5, P3, DD)

    Most Likely: #10 Wavell Avenue 3-1
    Best Value: #6 Enchanting Lady 8-1
    Next Best: #2 Stonetastic 3-1
    Exotics Use: #9 Birdatthewire 5-1


    P4 Grid:

    5: 3-10-12 (A), 1-2-4 (B), - (C)
    6: 1 (A), - (B), 4-9 (C)
    7: 5-6 (A), 7-9 (B), 1-3-8 (C)
    8: 6-10 (A), 2-8-9 (B), - (C)

    Simple (A+B): 6x1x4x5 = 120 x .50 = $60
    All A's: 3x1x2x2 = $12


    9th: 25th American Turf (G2), 3yo, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)

    Most Likely: #1 Airoforce 4-1
    Next Best: #8 Shakhimat 5-1
    Best Value: #4 Beach Patrol 8-1
    Exotics Use:: #11 Dressed in Hermes 5-1


    10th: 92nd Pat Day Mile (G3), 3yo, 1m (P3, DD)

    Best Value: #11 AMERICAN FREEDOM 6-1
    Next Best: #13 Star Hill 10-1
    Exotics Use: #6 Sharp Azteca 8-1
    Super Add: #10 Cocked and Loaded 6-1


    11th: 29th Woodford Reserve (G1), 4+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD)

    Most Likely: #8 Divisidero 15-1
    Best Value: #11 World Approval 20-1
    Next Best: #10 Tourist 8-1
    Exotic Use: #12 Big Blue Kitten 5-2


    12th: 142nd Kentucky Derby (G1), 3yo, 10f (P3, DD, Super Hi-5)

    As always, a wonderful 2 weeks in Louisville, typically my favorite part of the broadcast year. I hope everyone garnered info they feel is helping them approach the most unique event in our game. As discussed, I want to swing for fences with outsiders among this odd assembly and remain comfortable with the original quartet I presented last week for the Xpressbet Guide. My Man Sam, Creator, Majesto and Suddenbreakingnews offer a variety of styles and forward progress that make them eligible for success here. I'm adding Mor Spirit, who I've liked from start of career and will use these 5 alone and with Nyquist, Outwork and Brody's in exacta and trifecta savers. I've maintained that this is a Derby with a great potential for chaos and that can even be the case if one of the major players succeeds. Be in a position to capitalize either way by boxing up as many inventive options as you can afford while hooking them up with the keyed favorite(s) you prefer..

    Most Likely: #6 My Man Sam 20-1
    Next Best: #3 Creator 10-1
    Best Value: #18 Majesto 30-1
    Exotics Use: #2 Suddenbreakingnews 20-1
    Super Add: #17 Mor Spirit 12-1

    Cover Candidates: #13 Nyquist 3-1; #15 Outwork 15-1; #19 Brody's Cause 12-1


    P5 Grid:

    8: 2-6-10 (A), - (B), 8-9 (C)
    9: 1-8 (A), 4 (B), 11-12-13 (C)
    10: 11 (A), - (B), 6-10-13 (C)
    11: 8-10-11 (A), - (B), 1-3-4-5-6-12 (C)
    12: 3-6-13-15 (A), 11-17-18-19 (B), 2-8-10-20 (C)

    Simple (A+B): 3x3x1x3x8 = 216 x .50 = $108
    All A's: 3x2x1x3x4 = 72 x .50 = $36


    P4 Grid:

    9: 1-8 (A), 4 (B), 11-12-13 (C)
    10: 11 (A), - (B), 6-10-13 (C)
    11: 8-10-11 (A), 1-4-12 (B), 3-5-6-7-9 (C)
    12: 3-6-13-15 (A), 11-17-18-19 (B), 2-8-10-20 (C)

    Simple (A+B): 3x1x6x8 = 144 x .50 = $72
    All A's: 2x1x3x4 = $24 ($12 for .50)


    Oaks-Woodford-Derby P3 Grid:

    KO: 3-11-13 (A), 2-8-12 (B), 4-6-7 (C)
    WR: 8-10-11-12 (A), - (B), 1-5-6 (C)
    KD: 3-6-13-15 (A), 11-17-18-19 (B), 2-10 (C)

    Simple (A+B): 6x4x8 = 192 x .50 = $96
    All A's: 3x4x4 = 48 x .50 = $24


    Oaks-Derby DBL:

    KO: 3-11-13 (A), 2-8-12 (B), 4-6-7 (C)
    KD: 3-6-13-15 (A), 11-17-18-19 (B), 2-10 (C)

    Simple (A+B): 6x8 = $48
    All A's: 3x4 = $12 ($24 for $2; $60 for $5, etc.)


    13th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 7f (DD)

    Most Likely: #5 Sonoma Crush 7-2
    Next Best: #4 Mkubwa 4-1
    Best Value: #9 Harlan Punch 12-1
    Exotics Use: #6 Smart Moon 4-1


    14th: MSW, 3+, 9f

    This is a VERY good and competitive group of 3+ MDN's, but we may have the ultimate 'get out' play for the weekend in the latest Lemons Forever colt that Dallas Stewart told us all about. In addition to being the brother of Forever Unbridled and Unbridled Forever, watched him fly down the stretch effortlessly in :59.4 last Friday and gallop out huge around the turn. Gets 9f he wants and it will take a really good horse to beat him..

    Best Value: #6 FOREVER D'ORO 6-1
    Next Best: #3 Race Me Home 5-1
    Exotics Use: #4 Conquest War Cry 6-1
    Super Add: #12 Goats Town 7-2


    P4 Grid:

    11: 8-10-11-12 (A), 1-3-4-7 (B), 2-5-6-9 (C)
    12: 3-6-13-15 (A), 11-17-18-19 (B), 2-8-10-20 (C)
    13: 4-5-9 (A), - (B), 6-9 (C)
    14: 6 (A), - (B), 3-4 (C)

    Simple (A+B): 8x8x3x1 = 192 x .50 = $96
    All A's: 4x4x3x1 = 48 x .50 = $24


    Good luck!
    Steve
     
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  46. wes tegg

    wes tegg I'm a Guy's guy, guys.
    Staff Donor
    Atlanta BravesDenver BroncosChicago BlackhawksBirmingham LegionMississippi Rebels

    Followed you on #7, powe. First bets of the day. Kobe's Back and Limousine Liberal as winners.
     
  47. POWESHOW

    POWESHOW Social Critic
    Donor
    Duke Blue DevilsAlabama Crimson TideNew York YankeesNew England PatriotsMontreal CanadiensReal Madrid

    I'm not even mad at that. There is no way I could have come up with Catalina Red. Kobe charging REALLY, REALLY late but too late.
     
  48. POWESHOW

    POWESHOW Social Critic
    Donor
    Duke Blue DevilsAlabama Crimson TideNew York YankeesNew England PatriotsMontreal CanadiensReal Madrid

    Beholder 1/9 ML tomorrow.
     
  49. Cza

    Cza Buns Glazing
    Donor TMB OG

    Damn you Kobe.