Official Horse Racing Thread

How the Preakness field looks to shape up:

Likely/Definite:
Nyquist (Kentucky Derby, 1st)
Exaggerator (Kentucky Derby, 2nd)
Awesome Speed (Federico Tesio, 1st)
Cherry Wine (Blue Grass Stakes, 3rd)
Collected (Lexington Stakes, 1st)
Fellowship (Pat Day Mile, 4th)
Laoban (Blue Grass Stakes, 4th)
Stradivari (Keeneland allowance, 1st)
Uncle Lino (California Chrome Stakes, 1st)

Possible:
Gun Runner (Kentucky Derby, 3rd)
Suddenbreakingnews (Kentucky Derby, 5th)
Lani (Kentucky Derby, 9th)
Dazzling Gem (Arkansas Derby, 4th)
Sharp Azteca (Pat Day Mile, 1st)

If I had to guess with the possibles, I think that Lani and Dazzling Gem will run, while Gun Runner, Suddenbreakingnews, and Sharp Azteca will not.

From that group, if someone were to beat Nyquist in the Preakness, I think it is Stradivari. Got started late this year, but at the beginning of the year, he was the Pletcher horse I thought had the most potential. In his one start this year, he won a 1 1/8 mile allowance race by 14 1/2 lengths, earning a 100 Beyer. Wasn't a great field by any means (Siding Spring, who finished 5th in the Southwest, was the most accomplished horse in the race), but he looked good in doing it. Doesn't necessarily mean I'll pick him to beat Nyquist, just think that he has the best chance to pull the upset.

I have trouble making the case for anyone else to win. Think there should be a decent pace in the race, with Laoban, Uncle Lino, Awesome Speed, Nyquist, Collected, and (to a lesser extent) Stradivari all liking to be forwardly placed. Maybe that will help Exaggerator, but he had the pace in the Derby too, and still couldn't get by Nyquist.

 

There are two races this weekend that have my attention in particular:

-It will be interesting to see Unified run this weekend in the Peter Pan. He absolutely has the talent to run with a horse like Nyquist- I'd go as far as to say he's the second most talented colt in this crop behind Nyquist- but to date, he's only run in sprint races. Now he's jumping to a mile and an eighth. If he can translate his one turn races to two turns, he may very well be the main threat for Nyquist's bid for the Triple Crown in the Belmont Stakes. With that said, I'm not sold that two turns will be best for him. Not only that, there are a couple other horses I think have some real ability that I know will run well around two turns in Adventist and Wild About Deb. So at what will likely be a horse going off at 3/5 or so, there could be some value in that race. I probably prefer Wild About Deb over Adventist among those two, I just think he's in better form right now, but still think Adventist could end up being a player in the division this summer once he figures out how to run a full race.

-The Man O War later in the card at Belmont is also a pretty good betting race, since your two favorites (Kaigun and Wake Forest) are both horses that don't necessarily like to win. I see two interesting options in trying to beat him, and those are Morandi and Go Around. Morandi is the back class & trip horse- he was a Grade 1 winner in France as a 2YO, ran second of 19 horses in the French Derby, and wasn't totally embarrassed in a race like the Qipco Champion Stakes against world class horses like Farhh, Cirrus des Aigles, and Ruler of the World in their prime- all of which would be something like 3-5 against this field. He had a long layoff (almost two years), and since coming to the US, has subsequently had one impossible trip where he was eased (was forced to steady just as he was making his move into contention), and another start where he had limited running room down the stretch. That Chad Brown is putting him into a Grade 1 race off those efforts tells me something, and given that his form is extremely dirtied up- someone looking at it may think he hasn't even run an okay race since the fall of 2013, he should be a good price. If he reverts to his 2012/2013 form (and that is a relatively big if), he's the best horse in the race.

Go Around is the pace horse. There is next to no speed in this race, so he may have an uncontested lead- especially at a track like Belmont, where turf races seem to notoriously have slow paces. He's also in the best form of his career. As a 3YO, he was about a length behind World Approval, and he ran a good second last week in the Turf Classic (and that field was much better than this one is). He's also a horse that I think may get overlooked in the betting despite the pace advantage he holds, as his stablemate Closing Bell seems to be getting more hype right now.

I haven't decided which one I prefer as of yet between Morandi and Go Around, but I'm probably leaning towards Go Around. I may end up having win bets on both of them, anyways. Anything above 6-1 for either horse, I will bet (Morandi is 8-1 ML, Go Around is 10-1).

 

Preakness field:

1. Cherry Wine (20-1), Romans, Lanerie
2. Uncle Lino (20-1), Sherlock, Perez
3. Nyquist (3-5), O'Neill, Gutierrez
4. Awesome Speed (30-1), Goldberg, Toledo
5. Exaggerator (3-1), Desormeaux, Desormeaux
6. Lani (30-1), Matsunaga, Take
7. Collected (10-1), Baffert, Castellano
8. Laoban (30-1), Guillot, Geroux
9. Abiding Star (30-1), Allard, Acosta
10. Fellowship (30-1), Casse, Lescano
11. Stradivari (8-1), Pletcher, Velasquez

Looks likely that there will be a sloppy track on Preakness day. But I'm not sure if it will be as big of a factor as people will make it out to be. Exaggerator will get the talk about being a wet track horse, given his Santa Anita Derby win in the slop, but Nyquist won the Florida Derby on a wet track; Stradivari broke his maiden on a wet track (winning by 11 lengths); and even longer shot horses like Cherry Wine and Abiding Star have big wins on wet tracks.

Laoban is the only horse in the field that hasn't ran on a wet track, and the only other horse I could maybe make the case that a wet track would hurt their chances is Collected, as the only time he failed to hit the board was on a track rated good (he finished 4th). But even then, that was also the best field he's gone against, and it wasn't like he was embarrassed by a horse like Suddenbreakingnews. I've never been a huge fan of his anyways, so I tend to think he ran his race that day, he just wasn't good enough.

Also thought this was worth noting- four of the 11 horses (Uncle Lino, Nyquist, Laoban, and Abiding Star) in the race are all sired by Uncle Mo. That makes six horses and seven total starts for horses sired by Uncle Mo in the Derby and the Preakness. That's absurd for any sire, much less the first crop from a sire. Uncle Mo looks like he may turn into a monster sire, which I would love to see because he was absolutely one of the most brilliant horses of the past decade when he was in good form, and is one of my all time favorites.

 

Won't have a ton of money on the race, since I just think that Nyquist, Stradivari, and Exaggerator are a step up on the rest of the field. The one horse I could rationalize to use in exotics is Cherry Wine, since there should be a strong pace, and behind Exaggerator, I think he's the second best closer in the race (ahead of Lani and Fellowship. Do like Lani more than Fellowship, but won't be using either). He has that blow out win on a wet track, as well.

The one potential weakness for Nyquist is the two week layoff, since his worst performance (at least speed figure wise) to date was in the FrontRunner last year, which was off of a break of slightly under 3 weeks. But he seems to be training just fine at Pimlico, so I won't hold it too much against him.

Even though I think Nyquist is the likely winner, Stradivari might be worth a win bet if he holds near the 8-1 line he is at. He has more boom or bust potential than a horse like Exaggerator, where I think Exaggerator is a safer bet of the two to hit the board, but not sure he can turn the tables on Nyquist to actually beat him. While with Stradivari, it's a big step up in class, but he's looked so good visually his last two races, and in the most recent of those, he earned the figure that makes him competitive with Nyquist. Anything above 7-1 on Stradivari, and I'll probably make a small win bet. I have a feeling he'll end up going off at 5 or 6-1, so I don't think I will end up betting him in the end, but I'll be watching his odds closely.

This trifecta will be my main Preakness play:

3, 11
3, 5, 11
1, 3, 5, 11

I may talk myself into using Exaggerator on top and/or Cherry Wine in the second slot, but as of now, will go with that.

Preakness selections:

1. Nyquist (3) 3-5
2. Stradivari (11) 8-1
3. Exaggerator (5) 3-1
4. Cherry Wine (1) 20-1

 

I wouldn't go that far. I thought there was no way that American Pharoah, Firing Line, and/or Dortmund wouldn't at least make up 2 of the 3 last year, and only AP actually did so.

Little bit different this year, since Exaggerator and Nyquist have both at least run on wet tracks. They are certainly the two most likely horses to finish top three, but I like Stradivari and Cherry Wine enough where I wouldn't consider both of them absolute locks.

Fair warning- I haven't taken much more than a brief glance at the race, but after a quick look, the horses that interest me are 2-3-5-14. 3 and 5 (Land Over Sea and Go Maggie Go) are your most likely winners, and the 2 (Dothraki Queen) and 14 (Mom's On Strike) are longer priced horses that are worth a look.

There are a few different handicappers that I respect that really like the 14, for what it's worth.

 

I tend to lean towards yes for this, especially if you think Nyquist is the likely winner. 2012 paying that high for who finished in the top 4 was a bit weird, since the top three were so far ahead of the rest of the field from a talent perspective, and the fourth horse was only 20-1.

Think this might be more like the 2014 Preakness. Your top four finishers went off at 1-2; 10-1; 5-1; and 20-1, and that super only paid out around $170.

 

I do box horses more often than I probably should, but in general, this is the most efficient way to do it.

The times that I usually box tris is if there are only 3 or 4 horses that I like, and at least one of them is a nice price. Will most commonally do this if I foresee an absolute pace meltdown, then I just put the closers I like in a box (ala what happened in the Blue Grass this year).