Official Horse Racing Thread

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by mtsucalico85, Apr 9, 2015.

  1. Cza

    Cza Buns Glazing
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    Don't ever do a dime super box.
     
  2. Cza

    Cza Buns Glazing
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  3. Illinihockey

    Illinihockey Well-Known Member
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    Came out ahead by a little a wins a win
     
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  4. Cza

    Cza Buns Glazing
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    Belmont might be interesting. We will see who shows up. Nyquist benefitted from DanZing Candy pushing the pace, when he was on it today, got passed.
     
  5. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Ended up making some money today (about $60), but should have done much better. Didn't cash a cent on the Preakness, even though the only four horses I used finished 1-4.

    On top of that, other than the Preakness, I solely played Canterbury (my local track), and had the winner in the first three races (6-1; 11-1; and 3-1). I didn't play the Pick 3, though, and that pick 3 paid $3800 for a dollar. Truth be told, I don't know why the pick 3 paid that much, but it was so easily attainable that I should have had it.
     
  6. mal630

    mal630 Well-Known Member
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    It is a $2.40 bet that pays at least 10-1 and I hit it nearly every race.
     
  7. POWESHOW

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    I've made a commitment to play Canterbury as much as possible this summer because of their whole takeout thing so I imagine I'll be playing it anytime first post like 4pm PST.
     
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  8. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Really hope that it works for them. Canterbury has an unusually strong on-track attendance (their average attendance is usually 6000-7000, will rise over 10,000 on some of their bigger race days), and they skew a lot younger on race days. The two problems they have faced is that a) a decent-sized chunk of the people in their 20s (and a couple people in the group I go with fall into this) that go more to socialize and to enjoy being outside/relatively cheap drinks, and they bet maybe $2 on an entire card; and b) having trouble getting people around the country to simulcast with them. Lowering the takeout should at least give them a boost with the second problem.
     
  9. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    I'm sure there will be a name or two added to this list (a horse like Governor Malibu, for instance), but it sounds like at least these seven horses are targeting the Belmont:

    Nyquist
    Exaggerator
    Cherry Wine
    Suddenbreakingnews
    Lani
    Destin
    Brody's Cause

    Not a lot of pace from that group.
     
  10. Daddy Rabbit

    Daddy Rabbit obviously silly and not productive
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    Nyquist out of the Belmont
     
  11. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    POWESHOW ... If only Lani could figure out how to start the race.

    [​IMG]
     
  12. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Probably too quick of a turn around to have an impact on the Belmont, but Gift Box returned today in a fairly strong allowance race (also had Gettysburg, American Pioneer, and Direct Message, all of whom were coming out of graded stakes) and easily handled the field by 4 1/2 lengths, earning a 98 Beyer despite the six month layoff and being forced to run four wide throughout most of the race.

    Like I said, probably won't have the time to be prepared to run in the Belmont, but I'm extremely high on this horse. If I could, I'd make a future bet on him for the Travers.
     
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  13. POWESHOW

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    The new program that I am using, through 130 races has selected the winner 58% of the time in its top 2 selections and 74% of the time in its top 3.

    And I still suck-ass
     
  14. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Belmont field looks all but set.

    Brody's Cause (7th, Kentucky Derby)
    Cherry Wine (2nd, Preakness)
    Creator (13th, Kentucky Derby)
    Destin (6th, Kentucky Derby)
    Exaggerator (1st, Preakness)
    Forever d'Oro (1st, maiden)
    Gettysburg (3rd, allowance)
    Governor Malibu (2nd, Peter Pan)
    Lani (5th, Preakness)
    Seeking the Soul (1st, maiden)
    Stradivari (4th, Preakness)
    Suddenbreakingnews (4th, Kentucky Derby)
    Trojan Nation (16th, Kentucky Derby)

    I still have no idea how I am going to bet the race. Gettysburg is the x-factor in the race in how he is ridden. WinStar farm, his owners, also owns Creator and has a share in Exaggerator. So the question is Gettysburg in here to try and win, or will they make him a bit of a rabbit to get a faster pace to help Creator/Exaggerator. Reading into some comments from WinStar, I'm slightly leaning towards the second scenario as of now. But even with that, it isn't like Gettysburg is going to be setting 45 and change as the opening fraction. He just isn't that fast.
     
  15. POWESHOW

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    You guys want to go in for some Thoro-graphs for Saturday???
     
  16. matadorjim

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    i would go in. The more the better.
     
  17. POWESHOW

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    I think Cza said he would be in if we gave him advanced warning to actually use the product. Thoro-graphs should come out tomorrow so we can probably get the payment down to like $8 per person. I'm really fine with $12 for the product... $25 is just outrageous though
     
  18. POWESHOW

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    Private Zone is back on Friday at Belmont.

    Insane list of horses so far even just for Friday. Saturday's card is going to essentially be a Breeders Cup
     
  19. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    With the moves NYRA has made (ie, getting the Met Mile on the Belmont card), I think it will consistently be the second best card of the year going forward, just behind Saturday at the Breeders Cup.
     
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  20. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    This foal, a colt sired by Bodemeister, was born on June 5th. Never seen a horse that looks remotely like this:

    [​IMG]
     
  21. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Belmont field:

    1. Governor Malibu, Rosario, Clement (12-1)
    2. Destin, Castellano, Pletcher (6-1)
    3. Cherry Wine, Lanerie, Romans (8-1)
    4. Suddenbreakingnews, Smith, Von Hemel (10-1)
    5. Stradivari, Velasquez, Pletcher (5-1)
    6. Gettysberg, Lopez, Asmussen (30-1)
    7. Seeking the Soul, Geroux, Stewart (30-1)
    8. Forever d'Oro, J Ortiz, Stewart (30-1)
    9. Trojan Nation, Gryder, Gallagher (30-1)
    10. Lani, Take, Matsunaga (20-1)
    11. Exaggerator, Desormeaux, Desormeaux (9-5)
    12. Brody's Cause, Saez, Romans (20-1)
    13. Creator, I Ortiz, Asmussen (10-1)
     
  22. POWESHOW

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    Belmont Day is legitimately Breeders Cup P.2.... fucking CUPID is entered in the first race of the day... There are FOUR 1,000,000$ stakes races. SEVEN 500k+ Stakes races. SIX G1's.
     
  23. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Just took a quick glance at the PP's. Don't have any firm opinions yet, but the Woody Stephens looks like a great betting race.

    Think the Met Mile is a down quite a bit from the last year, which shows how loaded that race was. Noble Bird, Stanford, and Ami's Flatter are nice horses, but those are your 2nd/3rd/4th choices on the morning line (Frosted the favorite). Compare those to the 2nd/3rd/4th choices last year (behind Tonalist)- Bayern, Private Zone, and Honor Code. They aren't in the same class. Kobe's Back was 20-1 in the Met Mile last year, and he could have very well been second choice had he been entered this year.
     
  24. RoyalShocker

    RoyalShocker But I don't wanna be a Nazi
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  25. POWESHOW

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    Me and matadorjim pitched in for the Thorographs for the entire Race card at Belmont on Saturday. If anybody wants them you can Venmo me a small amount and I'll send you the file. I'll be refunding MatadorJim any money I receive from anybody. I'm not trying to make any money on this-
     
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  26. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Here are at least a few horses that interest me tomorrow on the undercard. Listing a horse here doesn't necessarily mean they will be my top pick, especially in the case of the Brooklyn and the Manhattan, but these are at least under consideration. I'll do more tomorrow during the races.

    Race 3 (Acorn): Carina Mia (4), 4-1: Don't think I'll get those odds, as I don't see anyway Go Maggie Go takes more action than her as the morning line indicates. But I think she's every bit as good as Cathryn Sophia, and Cathryn Sophia will be a much shorter price.

    Race 4 (Brooklyn): Neck and Neck (3) 15-1: I likely won't pick him on top, as he doesn't like to win, but he's a consistent sort that I know likes every bit of the distance. Still a bit foggy on how I'll approach this race, but I may key him in 2nd/3rd in a tri with horses like Kid Cruz, Elnaawi, and Shaman Ghost.

    Race 5 (Ogden Phipps): Forever Unbridled (6), 4-1: Deep field of 7, as six of the seven have a chance (though Carrumba is definitely sixth of the six). I've really liked Forever Unbridled's last two starts. Speed figure wise, she's about in line with the other top contenders, but I think a couple others may have more of a reputation, so she might be lost a bit in the wagering behind horses like Curalina, Stopchargingmaria, and maybe Cavorting.

    Race 6 (Jaipur): Ready for Rye (3) 6-1: He usually runs well, and if he just runs well, he's capable of winning. On occasion, he fires a huge race, and if that's the case, his best is better than everyone else's best. The 8 horse, Mosler, could be interesting as well. Didn't have a great trip last time out.

    Race 7 (Woody Stephens): Counterforce (7) 15-1: I'm expecting a wicked pace, so I want a closer. I like Counterforce the most of the closers, but I'm also looking at Tom's Ready and Star Hill. Will probably mix in Seymourdini, as he's a horse I've always liked, and I think he can sit right behind the pace and still be effective. Hoping to beat Sharp Azteca and especially Justin Squared.

    Race 8 (Just a Game): Irish Rookie (9) 10-1: She's run well against strong company overseas, and while her trainer isn't certain how she'll adapt to the firm ground, the race where she ran on the firmest ground of all her races I thought was her best. Lady Lara and Recepta interest me as well, but Irish Rookie will probably be my main horse here.

    Race 9 (Met Mile): Donworth (3) 20-1: He's got to get a fair trip at some point. I've never liked him when he was going off at 5/2 in races like the Santa Anita Handicap, but I feel like bettors may be getting tired of him, and this may be the time to have him. He's mostly hype to date, but there is some substance to the hype. I'm looking at Calculator, Upstart, and Marking quite a bit as well, along with the logical Frosted. I'm really trying to beat Stanford, Noble Bird, and Ami's Flatter.

    Race 10 (Manhattan): Divisidero (11) 8-1: Flintshire is just far and away the horse to beat, and if you are looking for a single for multi race wagers, Flintshire is the safest one, but I will be using Divisidero along with him quite a bit. I just think he has the most upside of the horses not named Flintshire.

    ...
    As for the Belmont Stakes, I think I'm going to lean on the two Pletcher horses, Stradivari and Destin, with a slight edge to Stradivari. Even with Gettysburg entered as a rabbit, I don't think he's so fast where it will lead to a pace meltdown. I still see Stradivari and Destin tripping out the best. The Belmont is rarely a race where a deep closer gets it done, so the horses I like will be near the front coming out of the far turn. I think Stradivari is slightly better and think he has more upside of the two, so he'll be my top pick.

    I will be trying to beat Exaggerator. He's had ideal setups the past three races, and I don't think he will get that this time around. I'm still not 100% sold on him wanting to go this far, as well. I may use him in the tail end of exotics, but if he wins, I'll lose. I liked Cherry Wine in the Preakness, but I think last time was the time to have him. I will try to beat him out of all the exotics.

    Other horses I will likely mix in with Destin and Stradivari: Governor Malibu, Suddenbreakingnews, Lani. Haven't ruled out Brody's Cause or Creator either.

    Belmont selections:

    1. Stradivari (5) 5-1
    2. Destin (2) 6-1
    3. Lani (10) 20-1
    4. Suddenbreakingnews (4) 10-1
     
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  27. POWESHOW

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    Had an INSANELY good past two days using a new system. Up ~700% just playing WPS bets. My system overall has actually been on fire and it's a complete shame I haven't been playing exotics because everything has been hitting. In fact, in the last race at Golden Gate my handicapping program picked the top-5 horses and I would have hit the Super Hi-5 if I boxed the horses (lol, right) that would have paid $3,600.... again though, I'm only playing WPS so I won $12...

    That said I fully expect to get demolished tomorrow so *IF* I post picks I fully advise anybody and everybody to NOT use them.
     
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  28. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Donworth, who was one of the horses I was most interested in with the Met Mile, is going to scratch.

    Also, there's a chance that a thunderstorm could roll through late this afternoon. I don't think it will be anything close to Preakness day, but know there is a chance for a track to have some amount of moisture on the surface.
     
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  29. POWESHOW

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    Looking like the 4pm hour so around the 8th race. Belmont post time is 6:37pm.
     
  30. POWESHOW

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    First race I can't see anybody but Cupid winning... just SO much classier.
     
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  31. POWESHOW

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    I was an asshole, went out last night and haven't done all of the homework I was hoping I would have. Below are the COMPUTER picks which I have not yet massaged yet:

    2: 1,3,2,7
    3: 5,6,4,3
    4: 10,8,9,4
    5: 6,4,5,1
    6: 3,2,7,10 (these might be suspect)
    7: 1,12,10,11
    8: 13,1,7,2
    9: 12,6,2,11
    10: 5,11,2,1 (Oathkeeper not rated)
    11: 1,2,5,13
    12: 3,2,1,4
    13: 4,8,9,6

    MOST importantly with these numbers I haven't eliminated anybody using any pace consideration.
     
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  32. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    For Race 3, I'll go 4-5-6. I'll do a small win bet with the 4, Carina Mia.
     
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  33. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    For Race 4, I'll go 4-3-7. But my bets will be based on the 3, Neck and Neck, hitting the tri. Going to key him in all three spots with the 1, 4, 7, and 9.
     
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  34. POWESHOW

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    I REALLY like the 10 horse in the 4th.
     
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  35. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    He's the horse I'm leaving out that scares me the most.
     
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  36. POWESHOW

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    Phew. Had a win bet on the 4. Didn't lose any money. Thank you Jesus
     
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  37. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Race 5: Going 6-5-4. Will be betting the 6, Forever Unbridled, to win.
     
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  38. POWESHOW

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    I too am 6-5-4
     
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  39. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Tough trip for Forever Unbridled- she did well to finish second. That said, not sure she beats Cavorting even with a good trip- she was fantastic.
     
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  40. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Race 6: I'm going 3-8-7, but this race is wide open. I'll bet the 3, Ready For Rye, if he goes off at 9/2 or better.
     
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  41. POWESHOW

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    Going with the #7 Green Mask in this race. Thinking about a 7/2,3,8/all trifecta and praying I can get a price in the 3rd position
     
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  42. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    I like Green Mask, I just don't know how much he actually likes to win. I do like the cut back for him quite a bit, though.
     
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  43. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Race 7, I'm going 7-6-13. For my bets, I will be boxing those three plus the 9, Tom's Ready, in an exacta. Just going to hope that pace meltdown develops.
     
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  44. POWESHOW

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    Potential speed duel between Sharp Azteca and Justin Squared in this race. Throw in Imperial Hint and mybe Fish Trappe Road (no chance to win) and I see a horse coming off the pace winning this one. Really liking Mrazek
     
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  45. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    We view this race somewhat similarly, just have a different idea on the closers. I've never been a huge fan of Mrazek.
     
  46. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Damn it. That was a huge race from Fish Trappe Road to hold on for second.
     
  47. mtsucalico85

    mtsucalico85 Well-Known Member
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    Doing a small pick 4, starting this race. Hoping to completely beat Exaggerator.

    Race 8: 2, 9, 13
    Race 9: 5, 6, 11, 13
    Race 10: 10, 11
    Race 11: 2, 5
     
  48. POWESHOW

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    Fish Trappe Road was ranked #1 in my late pace rank, #5 overall in composite pace rank. He didn't really run THAT race, but he was versatile enough to hang in there. Impressive run for sure.

    Tom's Ready in the stretch was incredible. Just ducking and weaving and exploding. Horse was ranked way down on my rankings but I guess that was pretty damn stupid considering the horse is probably the classiest of the bunch.
     
  49. POWESHOW

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    #13 horse Lady Lara very interesting in the next race
     
  50. The Hebrew Husker

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    My bad on being dumb AF but are all these races at Belmont today?