Yea, I like how she shut down the favorite at the beginning but I had a feeling that was gonna hurt her in the end.
Speaking of long layoffs, Cza, one of our favorites (Normandy Invasion) is returning to the races at Delaware Park tomorrow. http://www.equibase.com/static/entry\DEL070115USA7-EQB.html
Any hints on the $2 million harness card Saturday at Pocono. I may roll with the Takter horses in the Beal
Psyched to see Normandy again. I'm on vacation, but will have Hoosier picks up on Thursday. We drew the 2 hole in the 75k final so good shot there. Not sure on Pocono, I kinda stick to Hoosier and Balmoral.
I miss horse betting. Use to go to the dog track on Saturdays only when Gulfstream was open. Now I just turn on TVG or something at night and throw some Win Tickets on the quarter horses for fun
Also, officially moving Tulira's Star to 5 furlongs on the turf so hopefully she can use that burst and be competitive there.
It was essentially a match race between him and Our Caravan, and that isn't ideal for him. But he's definitely a horse that needs to have his moves timed precisely. It didn't help that Our Caravan forced him so wide on the first turn. Also worth noting that Larry Jones rarely wins with horses off of long layoffs, and Dilger (Our Caravan's trainer) does send them out to win first time off of a layoff.
Hoosier Harness Picks for Friday, July 3rd Spoiler 4th Race - 3 year old filly sire stakes ($75k) (6:15 PM EASTERN TIME) (1) Nora Rockwell has been the class of this field so far this year, but hasn't really been stretched out or boxed in as of yet. Every race has gone her way as she has the fastest 3 year old filly time on the track this year (1:51.3 and she'll go off as the favorite at probably 2-1 or lower. The three horses who have challenged her so far are our horse (2) Rock the Look (1:52.1), (5) Feetonthedashboard (1:53) and (9) sandysgoldenhour (1:52) who all have similar marks on the year. All the qualifiers last week were in a monsoon so not taking a ton away, but the winner is definitely coming from the 4 listed above, but in good news for betting, I think there's a good shot the top 4 favorites don't finish in order. (3) Blues Queen and (10) Mystical Angel have both been racing well as of late and I think the 9 hole it too far for sandy to come. On a personal note, I can say this is the first time we're really going to try and push Nora so hopefully it works. Safe bet (1) Nora Rockwell (2) Rock the look (5) Feetonthedashboard (10)Mystical Angel/(9)sanysgoldenhour More aggressive bet (2) Rock the Look (1) Nora Rockwell (10) Mystical Angel /(3) Blues Queen/(5)Feetonthedashboard)/(4)Can't Touch Her/(9)sandysgoldenhour I just don't see anyone else really hitting the board and the (4) horse, Can't Touch Her is a stretch, unless their is just a crazy pace the first half. I'm comfortable boxing the (1),(2) up top and hoping for some chaos behind. 13 race - 3 year old colt sire stakes final ($75K) (9:15 EASTERN TIME) I'm not going to get into this too much, but there is a 99.9% that (1) Freaky Feet Pete wins this race and there's probably a 50% chance he goes in under 1:49 doing it. This horse is crazy good for Indiana and if he stays healthy, could sweep the entire year. He's that much better then everyone else. So we're going to key him and hope for chaos behind ... I know it's vague below, but you're rooting for the higher odds to hit the board and against Rockin Ron and Galli. Not a great betting race, but that's going to be the 3 year old colts all year. (1) Freaky Feet Pete (KEYED) (7)Fool's Desire/(10) Harfo Hanover/(3) Rockin Ron/(5) American Virgin/(6) Gallipolis Race 14 - 3 year old filly consolation ($25k) (9:45 eastern time) While it's not in a particularly great spot on the card, should be a lovely betting race. (10) Rockin Good, the 2 year old champion I have been making money off betting against lands here, but this field isn't as strong and think she hits the board, especially with the rail trip at the 10 spot. (1) Best of Jenna was unlucky not to make the final and along with (8)Pacific Pancake, always seems to find her way to the top 5. It's really hard to call these consolations because you're dealing with 10 horses who were all out of the top 3 last week in the eliminations, but I think I will go with a boxed combo of the following... (8) Pacific Pancake (2) Northern Dali (10)Rockin Good (1) Best of Jenna/4 Walstan's Lady So good luck with those, there are the first editions of the 2 year old sire stakes tonight on the year. These are just the babies who haven't had more than 4 lifetime starts at this point (some are at 2 starts) which are races 1, 5, 8 and 11. These are generally chaos and a good time to pick your favorite numbers and hope for the best, there will be breaks and weird angles and generally just total carnage with 10 2 year olds on the track at once. Fun to bet, because suck to handicap. [/spoilers]
Also, American Pharoah going to run in the Haskell on August 2nd against what will be a strong field. BCC is going to be fire if Shared Belief can get healthy.
The Belmont races tomorrow- particularly from Race 7 (Dwyer) and on- should be fun. Race 7 (Dwyer)- The return of Texas Red. I think he wants to go longer than a mile, so I think its worth taking a shot against him, but he's clearly the horse to beat. I like Tommy Macho, but I also think Hollywood Angel could be interesting at a big price, so I might fool around with him in the exotics with horses like Tommy Macho, Texas Red, and Speightster. 1. Tommy Macho (3) 4-1 2. Texas Red (4) 9-5 3. Hollywood Angel (5) 20-1 Race 8 (Belmont Derby)- Bolo vs. Divisidero vs. Takeover Target. I think all three could be major players in the turf division when they face older horses. There are some other decent runners in here, but those are the main three. I like Bolo the most from a talent perspective, but not entirely sure about the distance with him. I'll end up picking whoever ends up the longer shot between Bolo and Divisdero, and I think that is likely to be Divisidero. 1. Divisidero (3) 4-1 2. Bolo (2) 7-2 3. Takeover Target (1) 5-1 Race 9 (Suburban)- It's Tonalist, at Belmont, against Grade 2/3 type horses. Not a good betting race unless you want to single him in a pick 4, and I don't think this is necessarily the best pick 4 to play. 1. Tonalist (6) 3-5 2. Coach Inge (2) 4-1 3. Neck 'n Neck (4) 15-1 Race 10 (Belmont Oaks)- I believe Lady Eli is the best female turf horse in the country right now- better than any of the older fillies. She should beat all the American horses, although there are a couple decent ones. In particular, I think Sentiero Italia is interesting as a longer shot to get in the exotics. But if Lady Eli loses, it's probably to a European horse- Olorda or Outstanding. I figure Outstanding will take more money because of the connections, but Olorda is a graded stakes winner in Europe, while Outstanding has yet to race against graded competition, so I prefer Olorda of the two. I think Lady Eli is the most likely winner, but I'll take a shot with Olorda. 1. Olorda (8) 8-1 2. Lady Eli (2) 2-1 3. Sentiero Italia (11) 15-1 Race 11 (Belmont Sprint)- This basically sums up my handicapping of the race- I look at the PP's, and see Clearly Now. Why bother taking the time to handicap it- I know I'll end up picking him at the end anyways. I always do. And I will do so again. 1. Clearly Now (5) 5-1 2. Private Zone (3) 8-5 3. The Big Beast (2) 7-2
That's a good field, thanks for the plays. You betting Hoosier tonight? Just talked to our trainer, were going for it with Rock the Look or switching drivers if Trent fucks up. Hoping for a 2nd over trip, go 3 wide in the stretch and take Nora down.
Probably won't be playing any races tonight- I didn't have my best night at Canterbury yesterday. Missed both pick 4's by a horse and was consistently getting 2nd/3rd place finishes with my plays. There was a 79-1 shot that won a race there last night. Longest odds for a winning horse in Canterbury history.
Best night to play Hoosier with random supers and all the 2 year olds, I'd bet most of the super hits will be 2k plus with all the Indiana rednecks coming up to the casino.
Conference call, we're switching drivers. 26.4 to the lead isn't her game and he has cost us at least 6 races now, Tyler Smith on in two weeks. Very happy about this, been pushing it for a year.
15 minutes until the last 2 kick off. I bet 1/2/5 earlier so up $50, probably will lose it on these last two races. Trusting my sober self.
Freaky Fete Pete got parked and still went in 1:49.2 ... best horse in Indiana and might win the Breeders Crown this year. Ridiculous.
Last race was a bust, Rockin Good won everything at 2, good advice if you ever buy a horse, don't burn it out at 2. You just finished 4th in a consolation and came home in 30 again, poor horse, they keep sending her to the front.
A quick Pick 4 for the Belmont races, starting with Race 8: Race 8: 1, 2, 3 Race 9: 6 Race 10: 2, 8, 10, 11 Race 11: 3, 5. Still like Tommy Macho (3) in Race 7, but will have a couple bucks on Hollywood Angel (5) as well, at the price he'll be.
Great performance by Force The Pass. At first glance, didn't really see any excuses for Divisidero or Bolo. Bolo should probably cut back in distance. Divisidero was wide, but he also didn't really do any running in the stretch.
Lady Eli is a monster. She ran about a second and a half faster than Force The Pass did in the Belmont Derby.
California Chrome has a bruised cannon bone. Definitely out of the Arlington Million, likely out for the year, and it's possible that he may just go to stud and never race again. The older dirt males division is in shambles right now- with CC and Shared Belief likely done for the year, I have no idea who the top older horse would be. Honor Code is best around one turn, Tonalist just lost to Effinex, Constitution is a horse for course at Gulfstream until proven otherwise, and Lea is 1 for 4 this year, with only a Grade 3 win. Liam's Map could be a good one, but he hasn't run in a graded stakes yet. The Whitney could help out a lot, as a lot of those horses (Honor Code, Tonalist, Lea, Liam's Map, and throw in Noble Bird and Effinex) are pointed to that race.
That suuuuucks. BCC not looking that awesome anymore. Guess the AP swansong will have to be the narrative.
I am without question the worst handicapper of all-time. dumpbutt could beat me. This is fucking embarrassing.
Going to opening day at Saratoga next week, pretty excited. Hopefully cza or mtsu has some winners ready.
Every track has a local, he's not going to hit everything, but will give a good base. http://saratogacasino.com/racing/Handicapping.aspx
More bad news- Lady Eli stepped on a nail sometime after her win in the Belmont Oaks, and that led to her developing laminitis in her front feet. For many horses, laminitis is career threatening and potentially even life threatening, but it is possible to return to the races- Paynter battled laminitis in all four of his feet (along with colitis) but managed to race again after he recovered. Still, although it's early, there's a good chance that Lady Eli has run her last race.
The good thing is that they did catch it early, so hopefully that will give her a better chance of recovery. And being a mare, there isn't as much pressure from breeders, so she would be more likely to return to race than a male horse would, all else being equal.
Lost in the Lady Eli news was that Main Sequence, the top male turf horse in the country, has retired due to a tendon injury. So, depending on what happens with Lady Eli, we potentially lost the two best turf horses in the country on the same day.
Just curious mtsucalico85 and Cza where do you guys get your horse racing news from? Do either of you subscribe to DRF+? Also, for PP's, which do you prefer? Lastly, for online betting... what site do you use? Me? I use Brisnet's PP's and bet with TVG as I much prefer their interface...
Bloodhorse is a pretty good site for horse racing news, I probably look at them and DRF the most. I don't have DRF+, mainly because Bloodhorse has a lot of the same stories, but for free. What I like and use on the DRF site the most are their video previews and recaps for stakes races that they do on DRF Live, and those don't require DRF+. I'll probably end up getting DRF+ at some point, but holding out as long as I can. For PP's, I almost always use DRF. I do like some of the things that TimeformUS does, but I rarely use them. And I'll glance at Brisnet occasionally, mainly because it's easier to find free Brisnet PPs. And I'm someone that almost always bets on-track (I live about 5 minutes away from Canterbury, and it's on my route to/from work). If I ever want to bet something, and I'm not at the track, then I'll use a friend's Twinspires account, but that happens only a handful times a year.
I stick to harness from end of Belmont to 2 year old prep season for the Derby. Have a few guys I bounce numbers off at Hoosier and Balmoral, but also watch each Friday and Saturday race card at both tracks, just Hoosier this year. I know trainers so get a few tips here and there. I use expressbet for betting, More out of habit than anything else, but my bank account is tied to it and had some issues with twinspires. But for Derby prep, basically just eye test early and go from there. If there is a big weekend (like Arlington Million) will podcast some stuff.
Tempted to try to get together a handful of people to pay for DRF+ and just pray that DRF doesn't notice an account being shared.
Fuckin' A, man. I'm NOWHERE near as advanced at this shit as you guys but I've been on a cold streak like no other this past month... literally hadn't won a race - relatively small bets though so no big deal - anyways, put down all of the betting yesterday and just studied for 12 hours straight, particularly class. Holy fuck. Class is fucking everything. Class #1, Speed #2. And the amazing thing with class is that it helps you to pick races to NOT bet. Anyways, just hit an $83 trifecta on a 1$ totaling $6. Small change to most of you, but after the cold streak I've been on along with the work I've been putting it that's the most rewarding win I've ever had, even moreso than Finnegan's Wake at Churchill and even the Belmont superfecta win. Thank you guys again for helping me out with this. Fucking love this shit.
It sounds simple, but having the patience to skip races, even if you feel you have a decent feel of a race, is critical to giving yourself the best chance of making money long term. It's a no lose situation to skip a race- if your horse loses, you save money, while if the horse you liked won, it validates your handicapping of the race, and you likely would have only gotten a few dollars anyways.