Havent seen any reports of winds higher than 165mph. Saw someone talking about unconfirmed gust of 225.
I believe Hurricane Mitch in the Gulf of Mexico had sustained 200 mph before weakening as it hit eastern Mexico. Edit: Just checked...max confirmed was 177 mph and oh by the way it hit Honduras, not Mexico. I'll go back over there and sit down.
Fun look a station near landfall. 210mph gust and sustained 185. http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=CCXJ1&unit=0&timetype=LOCAL
Cat 4/5 Cyclone Chapala in the Arabian Sea. Will probably come ashore as a Cat 1 in Yemen... but will dump lots of rain on the incredibly arid region (which is also a war zone... so that should be fun) https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...rms-on-record-in-arabian-sea-targeting-yemen/
Cyclone Winston now has recorded winds of 160 knots, making it the most powerful tropical cyclone on record in the southern hemisphere is about to make landfall on the Fijian island of Viti Levu. http://www.wired.com/2016/02/a-way-too-perfect-storm-is-headed-right-for-fiji/
Natl Hurricane Ctr @NWSNHC We are saddened to learn of the passing today of Dr. William Gray at age 86. Our deepest condolences.
Guy sure was popular for being wrong more often than Jimmy the Greek. Every other week there'd be a change in his hurricane predictions that it got to the point no one knew what the fuck to expect. That merlin-like octopus or a monkey throwing darts did it better without a PhD
Ok resident weather geniuses, what's your take on the early forecasts? Accurate or bullshit? What effect is the waning El Nino going to have?
Recon flight taking place right now into the area north of the Bahamas. Follow it here. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/
Should have Tropical Storm Bonnie soon. TS Warning are up for all of the South Carolina coast. Winds are projected to reach 45mph before landfall.
some of the latest model runs seem to be bringing it ashore farther north of Tampa, in the big bend area. Either way, the whole central florida area is in for a big soak. Street/sidewalk flooding is a problem in my neighborhood, so I'm not excited about that prospect.
Picked the wrong time to come back home from vacation. Recon flight happening this afternoon. Probably will receive the bump to Colin shortly after the flight. Rain going to be the story along with the tropical spin ups.
WeatherNation ‏@WeatherNation 26m26 minutes agoComanche, TX 1st Lt. Kelsie Carpenter of the Hurricane Hunters snapped this shot of a #waterspout inside #TropicalStormColin!
First outer just hit me in Orlando. Little wind but heavy rain. Lightning is pretty frequent off on the horizon. Let the fun begin.
I'm working out of Savannah, GA this week and it's non stop medium rain all day so far. ... photo from bonnie last week hitting the area / Interstate 95 was completely under.
Heavy rain in Tallahassee from about 9am until 2pm... light drizzle right now. Allegedly getting high winds (~50mph) in the next hour or three.
Residence Inn. Doing some contract work. People are saying the shit could hit the fan tonight around here.
Raining all day in Ft Myers, no flooding that I can see though. Looks like we will just get the bottom edge of it.
Apparently some super typhoon is about to dump 3 feet of rain on Taiwan. Weather gurus, is Taiwan doomed?
FB video, can't get it to embed though...Full development of Super Typhoon Nepartak https://www.facebook.com/DigitalTyphoon/videos/1184233804940583/
Invest 99L bears watching. Shaping up to be another case where one of the ECMWF (brings a strong TS/weak hurricane across south Florida and strengthens in the eastern Gulf) or GFS (absolutely nothing) is going to be very wrong. It will be a tricky forecast across south Florida in particular in 5-7 days or so.
Maybe we can start a new thread for Hurricane Season 2016? Maybe it'll help TMB to not have this bohemoth of a thread bumped? I'm assuming there is a lot of data in here. /randomthoughts
Looks like the models continue to focus in on Miami/Fort Lauderdale, across Florida and into the GOM. Intensity will be interesting, same setup that led to a lot of powerful hurricanes in the past.
Looks like Euro thinks the east coast ridge doesn't break down fast enough and pushes it well into the GOM with a LA/TX landing. Would imagine that's about worst case scenario right now with all the rain they have had over the last month, that would have to be absolutely devastating flooding. What would be best is if the ridge can break down a little faster and let it ride up the east coast, Georgia, NW South Carolina, and western parts of NC could really use the rain.