Looking for opinions on the wisdom of opening an aggressive growth fund filled mostly with large-mid cap stocks. I'm in the best liquid-asset position to go for it at the moment, but I also feel like the market is pretty close to the ceiling. Thoughts?
My thoughts are: if the market is pretty close to the ceiling, all us 20/30 somethings saving for retirement are fucked ...
20/30 somethings fear not http://observationsandnotes.blogspot.com/2010/05/best-worst-35-years-in-stock-market.html?m=1
Well, I should have specified and said I think the market may be close to a temporary ceiling before it corrects itself. I doubt that 18,000 is the cap for the DOW.
I'm really struggling right now with how to differentiate between a doomed or dead stock VS doing the exact thing normal market idiots do which is buy at the peak of hype and sell at the bottom. The money is in a retirement account that I'm no longer contributing to and won't touch for another 35-40 years, so even if it went to zero it wouldn't be the end of the world, but I'd prefer it not. Do you guys have a system of any kind to differentiate between these two situations? Feel like I'm being a moron if I sell now, but I also feel that at this point I could probably get better gains elsewhere and may be better served to suck it up and take the hit now. For the record, the stock in question is 3D systems.
Email from a friend / business associate of mine. One of the smarter dudes I know. Went to Carnegie Mellon and works at a well known multi billion dollar hedge fund. He has proven to be a savvy investor in the past. Let me know what you think. I'm not sure how to include the attachment from mobile ... But maybe you can just Google outernet. If not I'll post tomorrow if anyone is interested. All, From time to time, I send out an investment opportunity that I’ve been presented that I think is compelling; the following is by far the biggest, most ambitious project I’ve ever seen at this stage. Full disclosure: my wife XXXXXXX is employee 3 and Syed, the founder and CEO, is a former business partner and very good friend. I was only asked to send this to anyone that may be interested and I have no involvement outside of the above. I do not directly benefit from anyone's involvement and, quite frankly, the round will be filled without any of us. I'm writing this because I honestly think it's an intriguing opportunity. The company is Outernet, and they provide a space-based content distribution network that operates independently of the internet. As ubiquitous as the internet feels here in the first world, the fact of the matter is that >4billion of Earth’s inhabitants have no or heavily censored access. Outernet provides a datacast of the internet’s best content sent from satellites. Content is received, for free, by anyone with an Outernet receiver, which can be purchased from Outernet or built using open source plans and some common electronics components. Outernet isn’t a pipe-dream. They already send their datacast to 95% of the world and recently raised over $650,000 pre-selling their Lantern receiver on Indigogo. UNICEF recently flew Syed to Nepal to provide/set up an Outernet receiver for their workers, and they have already garnered a TON of really good press and accolades (e.g. Techcrunch, Gizmodo, UK government cubesats grant). This may feel like an altruistic charity project (i.e. not particularly profitable) but I think if you delve deeper into the long term implications, an extremely attractive upside emerges. At risk of oversimplifying, it’s not hard to imagine the immense potential of just slightly monetizing an audience twice the size of the internet, located in the fastest growing economies on the planet. What they are creating draws many similarities to terrestrial radio (AM/FM) or Sirius. In fact, they are currently in negotiations to create a competitive service to Sirius, which operates a monopoly in North America that did 4.4b in rev last year and is nonexistent in Europe. And this is ancillary to Outernet's core business, but it illustrates the magnitude of opportunity that Outernet can create through novel utilization of spectrum. And it is in spectrum that there is a highly confidential, prospective opportunity currently being pursued that is not included in the attached Investment Deck: Outernet is in talks with someone who owns a highly valuable slice of spectrum, but no ability to monetize it. Spectrum is by far the most valuable commodity in the world. Without getting too techie, spectrum is what makes all forms of wireless electronics work. Wi-Fi, all forms of radio, cell phones, TV and GPS to name a few, all make use of and operate on allocations of very rare and coveted spectrum. Some of these are free and protected, but they are all immensely valuable. There are myriad ways to profit from spectrum allocations; if Outernet obtains exclusive access to a proprietary segment of spectrum, its intrinsic value increases exponentially. I’m absolutely not standing here touting this investment as a sure thing, but I can very confidently say that the upside potential of Outernet is utterly massive. Far greater than anything I personally have ever had the opportunity to invest in this early (and I’d bet the same is true for all of you as well). Read the attached deck, it’s not very long and is incredibly polished/informative. If you have any questions, I’d be happy to answer them to the best of my ability and, if necessary, pass them on to Syed. Also, if there is enough interest I could certainly have Syed give an informal presentation (in Chicago at least, and maybe New York or other cities as well). Thanks for taking the time,
Since you are asking for opinions... Mine would be to stay as far the fuck away from that as possible Those borderline scam fundraisers are a dime a dozen
How would they generate a profit? Subscription? -the intended audience already can't afford regular internet subscriptions -the govt can still block payments to Outernet Advertisements? -the govt can sanction all companies that advertise on outernet No thanks
Not a scam. I know him very well and his wife works for them. I'm 100% confident it's a legit investment. Please don't confuse that with being profitable though.
It's all explained in the pdf. I don't know how to attach from mobile. I'll post in morning unless someone can tell me how 1) content provider pays to publish 2) user pays to share 3) advertising
Understand. The point I was more trying to make is to be very careful on these 'shoot for the moon' investments. Sad as it is, when something in the venture world actually worth a shit comes around, the big wigs have already had their hands all over it.
Most recent episode of Planet Money is a good listen about how fucked Greece is. http://www.npr.org/sections/money/127413729/podcast/
Is this a good cast? Need some mkt related stuff to mix in with my fantasy baseball crap when I'm jogging ...
I enjoy it. It's always 15-20 minutes long and sometimes I wish they would go into greater detail, but I like it.
SnP down 25 points right now. Relatively that is not bad. I think the date that actually matters is somewhere around July 20th. Also futures are 7 points off the low that I saw of -32 points. So there seems to be some support out there.
Eh i think some of it was priced in but come 7am tmrw when europe/germany has yao'd any quick deal and it will start to snowball down
Maybe Germany and France quickly dispelling the notion that this is catastrophic for Greece, let alone the Union, will buy some time with investors before a real selloff? Merkel said she was going to France to figure something out AND then called for an emergency meeting of the EU on Tuesday. Either way, I would just like to see some sort of finality to it all... The world markets have had one eye on one of the most insignificant countries in the world for what seems like five years now... Let's fucking move on good or bad.
Just tallied my expenses for June and realized I spent almost $900 dining out, and that's without a single meal costing more than $70 total. That doesn't include another $250 on bars, alcohol and snack purchases. To be fair, I had a cross country move and a 5 day vacation this month so I lived on the road for about 10 days, but damn. Do we have a "habits that make you poor" thread? I'm going to go sit in the corner now.
Girlfriend, but we don't live together and she wasn't even with me the whole month. I'm a little dumbfounded as to how I managed to do it, even with every expense sitting in front of me.
woooooo Since June 12, the Shanghai Composite has lost an unnerving 32%. The Shenzhen market, which has more tech companies and is often compared to America's Nasdaq Index, is down 41% over the same period. The government is now doing everything it can to rescue the markets. The People's Bank of China has cut interest rates to a record low, brokerages have committed to buy billions worth of stocks, and regulators have announced a de-facto suspension of new IPOs.
I've never understood how people can trust chinese markets. They've been obviously manipulated forever.
Market update for morning Spoiler • Market update – if a macro crisis didn’t exist, this market would find it necessary to invent one. This remains a tape that loves to see systemic and global macro crises at every turn, whether it be Greece’s debt drama, China’s stock volatility, the PR debt restructuring, etc. The eagerness with which people attempt to spot the next “Lehman” reflects an underlying degree of anxiety and skepticism from the ’08-’12 crisis years that remains difficult to expunge. Just as Greek anxieties calm (and sentiment towards that country has shifted dramatically in just the last 24 hours although Athens is by no means “solved” as a lot of work still needs to get done before Sunday while the banking system is only deteriorating further) China is moving to the fore of the macro narrative. Chinese stocks continue to sink w/the SHCOMP falling another 5.9% overnight (despite another round of policy steps fromthe gov’t designed to stabilize stocks) and investors are extrapolating the price action to economic fundamentals, using the weakness to contrive a narrative replete of negativity and gloom (even though financial markets are nearly always much more volatile than actual trends on the ground would justify). In terms of incremental news in the last 12 hours, it was a very quiet night. Other than the China price action, nothing else of note occurred (most of the major Greek news was on the tape during NY trading hours on Tues). • Looking into the US session, the focus will stay on Greece (a formal ESM aid program request was submitted at ~5:45amET http://goo.gl/q2y9ki and Eurogroup technical expers will review this via conf. call later Wed) but the Fed also will be important (Williams speaks and the 6/16-17 meeting minutes both will hit at 2pmET). Nothing major is due on the economic front. Finally, the CQ2 earnings season kicks off tonight w/numbers out of AA (the other big earnings report this week will be PEP Thurs morning). • Asia – stocks sank across the board as the China weakness increasingly spurs selling throughout the whole region. No market was spared – Japan (NKY -3.14%, TPX -3.34%), Hong Kong (Hang Seng -5.84%, HSCEI -6.09%), mainland China (SHCOMP -5.9%, Shenzhen -2.5%, CSI 300 -6.75%), Taiwan (-2.96%), Korea (-1.18%), Australia (-2%), etc. There really wasn’t much actual news (it was one of those mornings where the price action itself is the news). The big focus remains on China (see below for a broader update on that country). • Japan - Nikkei melted down and broke below 20k for the first time in 2mths as China continued to tumble on a fresh wave of stock suspensions overnight. Selling felt panicky as NKY sharply plunged 500pts with TPX turnover of over ¥3tn (vs 25day avg ¥2.4tn), and 96% of Topix names were in negative territory. China related sectors Steels -4.6%, Trading Cos -4.3%, and Nonfer Metals -4% all underperformed on China uncertainty coupled w/ commodity prices plummeting overnight. Of note, Laox -10.7%, Itochu -9.2%, Nissan -6.6%, and Komatsu -5.8% got hit the hardest among the China-sensitives. De-risking was also apparent among high-flying Financials (Cons Finc -4.9%, Insurers -5.1%, and Banks -4.1%) as downside momentum accelerated in the PM. Otherwise, Toshiba -3% got battered in the afternoon on Nikkei reports the co may cut past profits by ¥170b-¥200b (prev. ¥150b), while Mixi -8.5% lost a leg after announcing to raise ¥20.4b through a share sale. • Hong Kong – the mainland China selling really impacted HK hard for the first time Wed (Hang Seng -5.84%, HSCEI -6.09% - note that both indices are in the red on a YTD basis). There wasn’t a lot of news beyond ongoing panicked selling spreading from the mainland (as China suspends more mainland A shares, investors are forced to use HK as a funding source). All the major sub-groups finished deeply in the red. • Taiwan – the TAIES ended down 2.96%. June export numbers coming in lighter than expected, several June sales misses and China's move all weighing heavily on sentiment with those missing their June sales consensus hit hard - Mediatek off 3.6%, TPK limit down, Epistar limit down etc. Largan trading off another 5% with broker downgrades weighing on the stock. Panels taking another leg south on continued concerns on pricing (Innolux, AUO, etc). • Europe – while Asia melts lower, Europe is having an OK day (although keep in mind the main Eurozone bourses are already down materially WTD). The SX5E is up ~50-60bp while the broader SXXP is trying to hold flat. The tenor of news around Greece has improved in the last 12 hours and this is helping stem the selling although obviously a lot of work remains ahead of the Sun Leader’s Summit. Autos, fin services, media, and real estate are lagging while chemicals, banks, energy, and utilities are performing well (the autos have been hit hard lately w/the SXAP index now off ~6% WTD). Barclays is rallying after its CEO stepped down. • FX – the DXY is off ~40-50bp this morning after rallying Mon-Tues. The dollar is down the most vs. the JPY (the JPY saw a big safe-haven bid due to the Asian equity weakness). 3 • Bonds – peripheral bonds in Europe continue to trade well (10yr yields are off small in Portugal, Italy, and Spain). German Bund 10yr yields are unchanged. In the US TSYs are rallying (10yr yields are down 6bp). • Oil – Brent crept up small Tues and is up mildly again this morning as Iran talks suffer some setbacks. • US macro update - despite all the recent noise, this market is (still) a lot calmer and quieter than the headlines and intra-day volatility would suggest. The big macro themes are still present (Greece’s negotiating circus and China’s equity weakness and to a lesser extent the debt restructurings in Ukraine and PR) but for the most part these are not considered “systemic” and investors are keeping them compartmentalized (i.e. each is important and worthy of consideration but doesn’t reach far beyond the immediate country or region in question). At the risk of sounding like a broken record, the backdrop for the SPX remains the same: 1) the low-end of the months-long range (2050-2060), which now corresponds w/the 200day MA (~2055), remains support (this was the case last Mon/Tues 7/29-30, yesterday Mon 7/6, and earlier this morning too 7/7); 2) the risks for the SPX could quickly skew higher once the Greek noise abates (see below) as negative sentiment/positioning meets up an upcoming CQ2 earnings season that should be decent (at least relatively to subdued expectations) while the Fed message stays “one-and-done”. /
If I'm in a 60/40 index fund (bonds/stocks), should I probably be looking to dump it and buy back after the alleged September rate hike? Or is it not worth it? Still on personal finance 101 with this shit.
Assuming you're young, that's too heavy on bonds to begin with. And buying after the rate hike won't help because it probably will be followed by subsequent hikes thereafter. ..
It's a down payment for a house that I plan on buying in the next 5 years, so I wanted it to be relatively stable. I know the conventional wisdom is that you shouldn't invest that money, but I couldn't stand watching it rot in my savings account and don't NEED to buy in the next several years so if the economy tanks, so be it. My retirement savings are almost entirely stocks.
well, germany blinked on some debt restructuring and dumbass greece is gonna accept even more stringent reforms than what was on the table a few weeks ago game theory is fun
If you believe in efficient markets, the market prices in rate hikes before the rate hike actually occurs. It is only the incremental information about the likelihood and pace of future rate hikes that would impact the return on bonds. Personally, I would be as or more concerned with transaction costs as I would with rate hikes. It is also going to depend on the duration of bond portfolio. If it is a short-term bond fund the price action from higher rates won't impact returns near as much as a bond fund investing in long-term bonds.
Gotta check out the duration of the bonds in the portfolio. In a basic balanced funds its probably in the 5 year range. That's a bit high if you're concerned about interest rates rising. Probably won't be one hike in September, but an ongoing trend. If you're gonna be in FI, stay short term (rollover CDs for example) or maybe consider an individual bond purchase with a set maturity date that matches your time frame ...
Some good shit in the investing thread this morning. ANyone care to speculate on the odds that Germany The EU does indeed accept Greece's proposal? There has to be some chance that they dont accept it was it will just encourage others i.e. Italy, spain to do the same thing as Greece. Will be interesting to see the price action of the market as the day goes on. I think it trends towards unchanged going into the weekend.
Chinese brokers are now starting to refuse sell orders they're receiving. The other day their government said they will go after anyone "maliciously" selling as well. Really fucking scary to think about.
trading update Spoiler Market update – 24 hours after a Greek resolution, a deal this morning was struck on the Iranian nuclear program (the Tehran headlines are weighing on oil this morning – Brent fell ~1.5% Mon and is down another ~1.8% so far today). Other than Iran and some one-off co-specific headlines (inc. the MU takeover bid report from the WSJ), it was a quiet morning of news. Eurozone stocks are taking a breather following a big multi-day rally as Greek’s ability to positively influence sentiment begins to wane (recall a Greek deal was looking probable as of last Wed) and Asia saw mixed action overnight (Japan jumped but HK and China both saw some profit taking). For the SPX, the index can prob. squeeze a bit higher but in the near-term may not do much better than the upper-end of its recent range. top headlines Spoiler Greece recap (not much has changed on this situation since Mon morning): 1) Europe is demanding the Greek parliament pass reforms (by Wed 7/15) before agreeing to substantive talks (it looks highly likely that the required measures will make it through parliament although the Tsipras gov’t will prob. crumble in the process http://goo.gl/BCrhb9, replaced by a coalition structure); 2) the ECB could begin raising the ELA later this week assuming the Greek parliament acts; 3) there will probably be two Greek deals – an interim (1-3 month) one would help it cure the IMF arrears and make the upcoming ECB payments (the first of which hits 7/20) while a broader (2-3 year) pact is negotiated (a decision on a structure for the short-term “bridging loan” deal could come by Wed morning 7/15 (http://goo.gl/HbRXIX although there are some complications and a number of options are being considered http://goo.gl/edt4xh); 4) Greece will achieve more debt relief (this is the one area where Tsipras can even attempt to claim “victory” in his negotiations w/Europe). The media tends to get bogged down in semantical arguments over this topic (haircut vs. re-profiling) but the NPV of the country’s debt load will most likely be reduced (again); 5) the country is currently operating under a quasi-coalition gov’t where most of the major parliamentary parties have pledged their support to Tsipras but this unity prob. won’t have a very long life and as a result new elections may be held within the next 6 months (the WSJ discusses why a national unity gov’t is looking more likely http://goo.gl/0jWhCY); 6) the Greek banking system has suffered irreparable damage and a best case outcome will prob. see a wave of recapitalizations and consolidation while some firms could be forced to “bail-in” certain depositors (a EU25B recap is to be implemented by the fall according to the FT http://goo.gl/26asZt); 8) Greece will still be subject to strict auditing by the troika and as a result any slippage (either in economic growth or the pace of reform implementation) could result in financing being withheld again; 9) markets may still not appreciate how close Greece came to departing the euro. Reuters provides some background on the Sun/Mon 7/12-13 summit, noting how Tsipras almost walked out of the negotiations at the last minute (http://goo.gl/3ERV2J).
I bought straddle options in NFLX that expire on Friday with earnings coming out tomorrow. I bought the 750 calls and the 650 puts.
Yeah that's what I meant. I always mix up strangles and straddles. I paid 12.50 for the 750 calls and 9.80 for the 650 puts.