I know there's a business and legal case for it. Just sounds unattractive to me and sketchy. I'm okay with my bonus being "unknown" but I like certainty in my retirement accounts.
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/04/05/bill...by-using-index-funds-leon-cooperman-says.html "All I know is if the ability to underperform exists, the ability to outperform also exists. Warren Buffett, Mario Gabelli, Stan Druckenmiller and Ken Langone — and a little bit Lee Cooperman — didn't get to their net worth by buying an index," Cooperman said Wednesday on CNBC's "Halftime Report."
Langone is a CHARACTER. He went to my b-school so would always come talk to us... I'd pay decent money to see him speak again. He's obviously tight with Druckenmiller who's also a cool guy, but a little more neurotic. Check out his presentation on "generational theft" - it's amazing how fucked we are if we don't tackle entitlements ASAP.
Langone and Druckenmiller came in together one night to talk about this. Langone talked about how he's worth billions but still gets a check for a few thousand every month, plus free healthcare. He said it's a crime and there should absolutely be means testing for Medicare and Social Security. He said to view it like you would flood insurance: if you never have to use it, you win, but it's there if you need it. Similarly, if you make tons of money in your lifetime and don't need it, you don't get it. If you don't make as much money and you do need it, it's there for you. He commented on how much could be saved just but cutting out SS and medicare for the super rich. If you retire today with $10m+, you don't need a check for $2500/month. Here are some of the slides: http://www.businessinsider.com/stan...re-28-in-the-last-two-years-theyre-up-to-68-1
That's how SS and Medicare started, meant to kick in for poor people in their last year or two. It's turned into an alternate retirement plan that people are on for fifteen years. My grandparents are around 90, but their generation sacrificed for the social good. Fuck the boomers let them rot.
Really not liking the price action Friday and Today. The market has gone higher and the VIX has moved higher at the same time. Wouldn't be surprised to see a decent pull back this week.
interesting day. looks like earning season and pence not starting shit out in Asia allowed the market to take off today. seems like it may continue all week, i.e., if no news, then the market's proclivity will be to go up
I still have a problem with where the market is at because of the expectation that Trump will get taxes, infrastructure, or any legislation done. Not trying to turn this into a politics thread but those policies are driving this thing.
i think the sideways of the last month makes it seem like that tax reform will be late 2017 early 2018... not a big time reagan-esque deal like in the 80s, but paring back some stuff, cleaning up outdated shit, and hopefully finding the $ to do cuts for other stuff via repatriation and eliminating dumb credits/deductions (by making it flater). and any large infrastructure deal will be a cherry on top. if the underpinnings of a dem wave appear on the horizon for nov 18 then yeah they may try and work a bit faster earnings is gonna have to drive then next 2 quarters and us stay out of any big geo-political kartuffle.
Agree with this. I'm not bitching at all about the Trump bump but I have little faith they are going to get things done that live up to street expectations. We are late cycle and there is some serious legislative and political risk out there, the big question becomes when is it time to take profits from the trump bounce and look elsewhere.
As someone who is barely 30. I aint goin anywhere. But i likely am about to drop some cash into vanguards developed market etf.
I agree / understand with your sentiments. When you say look elsewhere what do you mean? I think we might see a traders market in the months ahead. I.e. A little more up and down instead of one directional. I have a little more cash than usual at this time (20%) due to geopolitical risks and seeming high valuations of US equities
VEA is my pick http://www.morningstar.com/etfs/ARCX/VEA/quote.html wanna time it around the french elections when it gets closer to that runoff since le pen most likely will be in, but assuming she loses in the 2nd round (which she definitely will), the time to buy will be the week before
You also told us we were crazy to think Trump would win. Tax reform will happen by late this year or early next year. Lets try to keep that stuff in the Trump thread.
It's pertinent to the discussion at hand. I'll leave bashing for the Trump thread. To get the level of tax cuts discussed pre-election, you gotta start with cuts via healthcare reform which seems dead on arrival right now. If the tax changes do happen, it's definitely not going to be at the level that was expected four months ago.
You seem confident that it will happen, but just not as much as was promised. I am confident nothing will happen, but hedged my statement. Dumbass.
Its been said over and over that the republicans strategy on tax relief first depends on healthcare getting passed. They are working on it. Its taking longer than expected, but it is not dead on arrival as you suggest. The original goal for August tax reform bill has certainly been pushed back as admitted by Mnuchin. I think a realistic timeline is early 2018. I dont really care about the timing as much as i do that it gets done. I think even most democrats want tax reform so hopefully our politicians from both sides get their shit together and get it done.
This is a really important point. Obvious point but this market popped because of Trump's pro growth policies. Again not trying to start a political discussion but Trump thought he could walk in there with the house and senate in Republican hands and just get anything done the exact way he wanted it - the market clearly believed that narrative too. We get to health care and he got dicked by the political process in Washington and here we are. There are legitimate questions surrounding his ability to govern and get shit done - again the trump bump priced in his great deal making ability. If tax reform doesn't get done or if they dont start that process soon enough I think market participants are going to start to turn up the pressure on Washington. Also to redacted's point - if taxes do get done there is a very real possibility it looks nothing like it did four months ago which the market priced in. Couple all of this with a hot market and the geo political landscape and you have some serious risks out there right now.
You have some serious geopolitical risks due to Trump, but you also have a 10-12% head start. So you have a little house money to play with
Specifically, at the beginning of the year I locked in my gains from the Trump election - reinvested half of those in etf ACWX (up like 8-9% YTD) and the other half in a short term bond fund that pays me monthly - using this until we get a pull back to buy into a dip if the fundamentals are still strong.
Lots of money coming in on a rise in the vix for the month of May today. Generally means an expected market sell off. Probably related to the French election. Will be interesting to see how it pans out.
France Middle East North Korea Explains all of this positioning. We will know the outcome of one of those three in a few days when the French vote. Who the fuck knows about the Middle East and North Korea
Looking like she is gonna win the first round at 24-25% not come in second. Even though she has no chance in the runoff that could spoke investors near term even more.. aka good thing for buyers in coming days
deleted my post as I saw where you might have been getting it from, the google projection has it that way but all the other projections have seen don't, be curious where it ends up
yeah looks to be tightening, still, she had what.. 19-20% in the polls? really interesting the 5-6 percent the socialist dude got coulda gone to melenchon and then, potentially, a le pen/melenchon apocalypse woulda happened. In an updated projection, TF1 television said Macron — who formed his own independent political movement last year — had won 23 percent of the vote and Le Pen had 22 percent, with conservative former Prime Minister François Fillon and far-left candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon on 19 percent each.
final polling averages had her at ~22.5%. looking like she'll finish just under 22%. Macron at or just under 24% in final polling average. which is right in line with where it seems he'll finish at just under 24%.
wow market is pricing in a very easy win for macron. i didnt expect the dow goin up 200+ and everyone else up 1-2% because of this. Wednesday is tax reform announcements and Friday is US govt deadline for funding entry points are gonna be tricky here next few weeks
how do y'all pick initial investments, advisors etc? A few years ago I started an investment with my dad's financial advisor, nice guy who has always done well for him and friend of the family. Got my statement today and it just seems like I'm underperforming the market. He warned me when I signed up that he will lag behind good times, but he will always be safer in the poor times, so over time it will be very competitive with the overall market. Keeps about 20% in cash to invest at times but here are the numbers: Start date - 7/1/2013 Annualized return - 6.71% S&P - 13.21% Dow - 11.84% I feel like I just happened to enter during a good time and I would appreciate him more if I went through a downturn, but I want to make sure I'm not leaving money on the table. His costs are pretty low so that is one nice perk (fee based instead of trade based) Any thoughts?
If you have 20% in cash, that's a big reason for the lag since cash is paying nothing. Quick math says you would be around 9% if the cash was invested. The rest depends on what the 80% is invested in. If you have 30% in bonds, for example, that would be a reason you would be lagging.
If you would have just put all your money into VFFVX, you'd be up 25% right now. That guy is costing you A LOT of money. Why pay a guy to manage your money if he isn't worth the cost? For example, VFFVX has an expense ratio of 0.16.