Most frustrating is the series has even gone this far with the stars outplaying them every game but whatever
Dallas almost really fucked up giving away the puck with 4 seconds left and Vegas getting a quality shot off. Would have been brutal
this can be valid but not a huge factor, goalies at this level will adapt. And shooters too. No good shooter goes into a game hell bent on shooting glove side because of the tape. Most of the time it’s more of a mental game and picking on something a goalie struggled with lately. So if you have to throw a puck up on goal throw it glove side type of thing.
i do not think you understood the question. From what I have seen the goals were ridiculously well done
xG can be very flawed in a small sample size and think soccer xG is far superior to hockey but still don’t think he was very good
Love how we arbitrarily decide what coincidental result in a man coming off the ice and what keeps things even. If that was a 5 on 5 coincidental we’d be 4 on 4 right now. But since it was a PP it remains a 5 on 4 instead of a 4 on 3
Drai absolutely robbed of an automatic goal for a hat trick. Jesus Christ, what a stupid fucking call
19 seconds down by one and LA puts the goalie back in for a d-zone faceoff. At least they made sure they covered the spread!
This video is a perfect example of how good analytics work. It’s not about taking publicly available data and making the best model possible. It’s about charting and tracking the most predictive data points with real knowledge of the sport, and then building a model to those predictive data points. For the amateur Twitter stats guys, it’s not their models that are bad. It’s the inputs they use in those models because they don’t understand the sport enough to track and chart the data themselves.
I can't disagree with this statement more. You have to remember that these guys are pretty much all doing this as a side gig hoping to either catch on with a team or just doing it for fun. Hell, I know analysts working for teams in the NHL who have 2nd jobs outside of hockey, because unless you are the head guy or a former NHLer, it's basically a min wage job. Tracking everything yourself is a full time gig. The only way to do it from the outside is by scraping publicly available data. It's not a knowledge issue, it's a time issue. That being said. The twitter analytists still have way more accurate data than 99% of the twiterverse's eye test because it doesn't have inherent bias. They also understand the game really well. Had a chance to talk with a former twitter analytics guy who now works with the Hurricanes as an amateur scout, once you get past the analytics talk he went massively deep into actual on ice stuff like knee bend, angle of attack on the forecheck etc. Stuff that is levels above the average twitter discourse. Then we have people like Ryan Whitney who are loud haters regarding analytics while being one of the dumbest people out there when it comes to interpreting what's happening on the ice and he played in the damn league.
One of the problems I have with moneypuck and other “free” analytics is that it mainly counts shots on goal as the sole input. So if a team is controlling play and getting odd man rushes but shooting wide, then it would appear on analytics potentially that they aren’t generating those chances. Or if the pass is blocked on an odd man rush. It’s worth knowing that a team is generating the opportunity even if it doesn’t result in a shot.
I’ve been glad that the Stars acct hasn’t stooped to the Vegas level and started talking about LTIR shit
I’m mostly calling out Dom here who gets paid to do this professionally. And frankly a lot of the “Twitter amateurs” are getting compensated for their work they put out too. If this is your full time job and you’re not distinguishing shots coming off cross ice passes that are completely undefended versus any other shot on goal (or even shots coming from a generic shot chart), you’re not doing your job. You’re not doing the data collection required to actually find predictive signals. You’re solely relying on a public data set that isn’t all that predictive and throwing as much lipstick on top of it as you can. Shots aren’t created equal. Where on the ice do they occur. Are they defended? Screened? Deflected? Coming off a cross ice pass? Forehand or backhand? The various combinations of all the above (this is the big part that allows for multi-dimensional analysis). All of that matters and any hockey fan with half a brain realizes that. And all of that information is readily available to be tracked if you have the time to put the work in to do it. My point is, if you aren’t, your model is going to have a low ceiling of predictability thereafter. The vast majority of public models aren’t, and people need to realize that and place way less weight on them than models that do. I work in Analytics. I know a good model from a bad one when I see it. The vast majority of the stuff on Twitter is better than nothing but not worth much more than that. Until the data collection gets better, which I’ll admit takes a *shitload* of time (unless you AI it), it’s all fairly flimsy.
I agree with everything here. But the limited data the twitter analysts harvest is STILL better than 99% of the garbage spewed by the eye test people who trash them. And comparisons to internal analytics that do track the things you are talking about show that the twitter analyists are a lot closer to the more accurate data than you'd think. It's not perfect data, but it is still far better than what else is publicly available.
I think the internal analytics and the publicly available models are directionally similar, but the differentiation between them is massively important. And it’s especially important for judging certain teams. Again, to the Carolina example, the better models realize they get overly reliant on scoring “bad goals” (per Valiquette’s definition) which catches up to them every year in the playoffs when they face a goaltender that doesn’t allow bad goals. Do the Canes still rank as one of the best teams in the league in those models? Yes. But they’re just one of many instead of an odds on favorite. That differentiation is huge when predicting outcomes, especially in the short run. Again, my biggest rub with the guys on Twitter - mostly JFresh and Dom - is that they rely on others for data collection which any legitimate analytics person would laugh at. And then they act like their models are infallible. Though I guess there’s a reason why they aren’t getting offers from teams to do it for them. And fans also need to realize that too.
Can agree here. When we are differentiating between the top 10ish teams, that extra detail matters. I'm more coming at it from the POV where you've got fans of a team like Vancouver melting down over analytics twitter calling them frauds and then using the same arguments you are making about shot location, etc.
I mean there’s clearly something wrong with him. More like, Toronto fans be normal about your players being injured or sick. Stars are missing two big contributors and the fans aren’t attacking them calling them pussies.
this isn't about the fans. It is just about Toronto having several things go wrong for them in the series. Nobody here is suggesting that he isn't actually hurt. I'd understand Toronto fans feeling a bit cursed given how things have gone this series.
not here but their fans have been attacking nylander and Matthews all series because they’ve been sick/injured
Irrespective of the internet’s inability to wait for a series to be finished before dissecting its lasting impacts, the narrative of this series proving that the Leafs’ “core four” can’t win in the playoffs has been strange given that the two most important of the four have either been out or playing under the weather.
Theres quite a difference in fandom between the biggest fanbase in the NHL and probably one of the smallest fanbases in the NHL tbh
In no way should Matthews/Nylander be mentioned in the same sentence with Marchment/Faksa when comparing what you’re missing with injuries.
No one is saying that. I’m saying no one should ever call someone a pussy because they can’t play. I named the two Stars because i obviously see interactions for them more, but you can enter Demko in place of them. I didn’t see Canucks fans calling him a pussy all day on my timeline. He’s just as important as those two.