FSUsem's 2016 Bowl Season Picks & Discussion (12-11, +0.9 Units)(12/30 & 12/31 picks pg 14)

I think people are severely underrating the pac 12. Top to bottom it was probably just as good or better than the SEC.

 

Youre right about the percentages. This could easily be one of the times it doesnt hit.

To put it in hold em odds, Im putting you on 4 to a flush after the flop but Im holding one of your outs. I think that puts you at about 34% to hit. Ive been rivered in that situation one too many times to call it a lock.

 

Here are some ESPN articles (some insider):

Spoiler: Stats, Trends, & Notes

• 
  David PurdumESPN Staff Writer

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Below is the game plan for having an enjoyable and profitable bowl season -- by creaming your co-workers in the office pool.

It includes bullet-pointed information straight from Las Vegas sportsbooks, coaches' records in bowls, strength-of-schedule insight, statistical mismatches and more.

Please do not leak to office pool opponents. ...

Note: Statistical information from BetLabSports on SportsInsights and TeamRankings.com was used in this article.

Early action report

• In mid-December, an MGM casino guest placed six-figure bets on Arkansas State, BYU, Mississippi State, Florida State, Louisville and Air Force. The gambler was described as a "house player," generally meaning a high-roller, but not necessarily a sophisticated sports bettor.
  
  
• On Tuesday at the MGM, a sophisticated sports bettor placed a $5,000 limit bet on Auburn +4.5 against Oklahoma in the Allstate Sugar Bowl. Limits will increase closer to kickoff.
  
  
• Out of the first $7,027 bet at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook on the Sugar Bowl, $7,000 was on the favored Sooners. Oklahoma opened as a 5.5-point favorite, but was only laying 3.5 at several shops as of Dec. 14.
  
  
• The largest bowl bet placed at a William Hill sportsbook in Nevada as of Dec. 14: A $44,000 pop on Temple -13 versus Wake Forest in the Military Bowl on Dec. 27. Because of the big bet, which was placed Dec. 10, more money had been bet on the Military Bowl than had been bet on the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl between Alabama and Washington at William Hill.
  
  
• Temple also attracted big money at the South Point sportsbook. "We took some big play on Temple," South Point sportsbook director Chris Andrews said. "Not sure how sophisticated it was, but it was big." The Military Bowl line had grown to Owls -14 at several sportsbooks as of Dec. 14.
  
  
• Andrews believes Alabama would be a 7-point favorite over Ohio State in a potential national championship game matchup. "I've heard guys say higher, but I think 7 is a good number," Andrews added.

• Ed Salmons, head football oddsmaker at the SuperBook, thinks Alabama would be favored over Ohio State by somewhere between 7.5 and 9.5 points.
  
  
• Golden Nugget oddsmaker Aaron Kessler's projected lines for potential championship game matchups: Ohio State vs. Alabama -9.5; Clemson vs. Alabama -11; Washington vs. Ohio State -4; Washington vs. Clemson -3.
  
  
• Alabama grew to as much as a 17-point favorite over Washington in the days directly after the point spread on Peach Bowl was posted at Station Casino. But as of Dec. 14, the line had settled back to Crimson Tide -16, with even action. Station's sportsbook director Jason McCormick reported 51 percent of the bets were on Alabama.
  
  
• Six times as much money had been wagered on Alabama as had been bet on Washington as of Dec. 14 at the South Point.
  
  
• Projecting a line involving Washington in the championship game is tricky. "You'd have to give Washington a huge bump from beating Alabama," Salmons said. "If Washington beats Alabama, no matter who they play, that line is obviously going to be less than 7. If they played Clemson, I think it would be somewhere around Clemson [minus] 3 and Ohio State [minus] 5.5, 6."
  
  
• The SuperBook took a limit bet on Ohio State -3 versus Clemson in mid-December. "That was definitely sharp," Salmons said.
  
  
• The SuperBook also took early action, characterized by Salmons as sharp, on Florida State +7, Stanford -3 and Pittsburgh -3.5.
  
  
• The SuperBook opened Michigan as a 7-point favorite over Florida State in the Capital One Orange Bowl and quickly attracted respected money on the Seminoles, dropping the line to Wolverines -6.5. "Wise guys just wouldn't let -7 stick around," Salmons said. "That was surprising, because I'm pretty sure the public is going to be coming in pretty good on Michigan."
  
  
• As of Dec. 14, 91 percent of the money wagered on the Orange Bowl at William Hill sportsbooks was on the Wolverines.
  
  
• Michigan had also attracted the most lopsided action at the Golden Nugget.
  
  
• William Hill took two $25,000 bets on Ohio State to win the championship at 4-1 odds. Each would net $100,000 if the Buckeyes win their second national title in the past three years.
  
  
• William Hill also accepted a $6,400 national championship bet on Washington at 15-1, which would net $96,000, and a $10,000 bet on Clemson at 9-1 that would produce a $90,000 profit. The largest bet on Alabama was $5,000 at 11-2, which would pay $27,500 if the Crimson Tide repeat as national champions.
  
  
• Temple, South Carolina, New Mexico, Indiana, Pittsburgh and Wisconsin also had attracted more than 90 percent of the early money on bowls that had received early significant action at William Hill.
  
  
• Las Vegas sportsbook operator CG Technology took two $5,000 limit bets on North Carolina State the first week after bowl lines were posted. (Limits will increase closer to kickoff). "We need Vanderbilt," CG Technology's Jason Simbal said. As of Dec. 14, North Carolina State was listed as a 4-point favorite over Vanderbilt in the Camping World Independence Bowl.
  
  
• LSU and Wisconsin also attracted early line-moving money at CG Technology.
  
  
• In the first week since bowl lines were opened for betting at the MGM, six times as much money had been wagered on the Peach Bowl between Alabama and Washington as had been bet on the PlayStation Fiesta Bowl between Ohio State and Clemson.
  
  
• Arkansas State, Houston, Southern Miss, Colorado, Stanford and Indiana had attracted limit bets as of Tuesday at Station Casino.
  
  
• Southern Miss opened as a 3-point favorite over Louisiana-Lafayette, but was bet up to Eagles -4.5, creating Station's most-lopsided decision on a bowl as of Tuesday.
  
  
• New Mexico, Southern Miss, BYU and Old Dominion had attracted the most action at Caesars sportsbooks.
  
  
• Jeff Stoneback, assistant sportsbook manager at the MGM Mirage, estimates "80 to 90 percent" of the money wagered on bowl games is placed on the day of the game.

10-year bowl ATS and over/under stats
College Football Ratings.

• Wisconsin (10) vs. Western Michigan (118)
  
  
• Mississippi State (31) vs. Miami, Ohio (124)
  
  
• LSU (13) vs. Louisville (70)
  
  
• Colorado (8) vs. Oklahoma State (61)
  
  
• Western Kentucky (121) vs. Memphis (73)
  
  
• Colorado State (79) vs. Idaho (123)
  
  
• Central Florida (74) vs. Arkansas State (119)
  
  
• Middle Tennessee (132) vs. Hawaii (87)
  
  
• Old Dominion (140) vs. Eastern Michigan (98)

Statistical mismatches

• Colorado State's No. 6 goal-line offense vs. Idaho's 116th-ranked goal-line defense.
  
  
• Michigan's pass rush vs. Florida State's pass protection. The Wolverines are second in the nation with 3.67 sacks per game. The Seminoles rank 109th in the nation in sacks allowed 2.83 sacks per game.
  
  
• Michigan's 8th-ranked punt return unit vs. Florida State's 127th-ranked punt return defense.
  
  
• Washington's 14th ranked punt return unit vs. Alabama's 115th-ranked punt return defense.
  
  
• Louisiana Tech's offense is eighth in the nation in third-down efficiency. Navy's defense is 128th in third-down efficiency defense.
  
  
• Utah is third in the nation in turnovers gained with 28 (17 interceptions, 11 fumbles). Indiana is tied for 120th in the nation in turnovers with 26 lost (17 interceptions, nine fumbles).
  
  
• Boston College's pass rush vs. Maryland's pass protection: The Eagles rank ninth in the nation in sacks per game (3.25). The Terrapins surrendered 41 sacks this season, 3.42 per game (121st in nation). Only one power-conference team (Arizona State) allowed more sacks.
  
  
• North Carolina State's NFL-bound defensive end Bradley Chubb's 21 tackles for loss is second nationally, and given Vandy's struggles on the offensive line (7.2 percent sack rate, 12th in SEC) it should be a prime opportunity for Chubb to pad his stats.
  
  
• Oklahoma State, Indiana and Nebraska each allowed three blocked punts this season. Only UNLV allowed more.
  
  
• Baylor committed 9.83 penalties per game, nearly 1.6 more than any other team. Boise State, the Bears' opponent in the Cactus Bowl, is one least penalized teams in the nation, ranking 11th nationally in penalties per game.
  
  
• South Florida's No. 5-ranked rushing offense vs. South Carolina's 89th-ranked rushing defense.
  
  
• Eastern Michigan's No. 19th-ranked goal-line offense vs. Old Dominion 100th-ranked goal-line defense.
  
  
• Colorado's pass rush vs. Oklahoma State's pass protection. The Buffaloes recorded 2.69 sacks per game, good for third in the Pac-12 and 25th in the nation. Oklahoma State is 105th in sacks allowed, surrendering 2.56 per game.
  
  
• Air Force's No. 3-ranked rushing offense vs. South Alabama's 98th-ranked rushing defense.

Odds and ends

• The point spread on the Hawaii Bowl between Middle Tennessee and Hawaii had not been posted as of Dec. 13. Middle Tennessee starting QB Brent Stockstill suffered a broken collarbone in an early November loss to Texas-San Antonio and did not play the rest of the regular season. He has not, however, been ruled out of the Hawaii Bowl.
  
  
• Average combined points in bowl games since 2011 is 58.7. The average posted over/under on this season's bowls is 57.35 as of Dec. 14 at the SuperBook.
  
  
• The Memphis-Western Kentucky total quickly grew to 80 at the SuperBook, the largest of any bowl total as of Dec. 14.
  
  
• Teams playing bowl games in their home state are 28-29-1 ATS in the previous five seasons (2011-15), not including the 2013 New Orleans Bowl between UL-Lafayette and Tulane, with both teams playing in their home state.

 

Spoiler: Picks of All 41 Bowl Games (Will try to update as ESPN updates)

• CFB Vegas ExpertsSpecial to ESPN.com

It's easy to get overwhelmed amid the 41 bowl games that will be played between Dec. 17 and Jan. 2. But fear not, Insider is here to help.

We've asked our experienced group of gambling experts -- Phil Steele, Will Harris, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin, Chris Fallica and Rufus Peabody -- to provide a bet on every bowl game.

If you're going to bet on a bowl game this season, this is the file you need to read. It will be continuously updated throughout bowl season with fresh information.

All game times listed are Eastern. Lines are from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of Wed. Dec. 14.

Note: College Football Playoff semifinals will be addressed in a separate file.


Dec. 17
Air Force Reserve Celebration Bowl


North Carolina Central vs. Grambling (-14.5)
12 p.m., ABC
Georgia Dome, Atlanta

Will Harris: Grambling rallied past two-time defending champion Alcorn State to claim the SWAC crown, while North Carolina Central beat rival North Carolina A&T for the MEAC championship. The Eagles, at 9-2, have won 15 straight over MEAC opponents and have taken at least a share of the conference title in three straight seasons. Grambling (11-1) is likewise the master of its league, having won 18 straight games in SWAC play. The Tigers are 3-0 all-time against the Eagles, but the schools haven't met since the 1980s.

Gildan New Mexico Bowl


New Mexico (-7.5) vs. UTSA

2 p.m., ESPN
University Stadium, Albuquerque, New Mexico

PickCenter consensus: 70 percent UTSA


Chris Fallica: The New Mexico rush offense is the unit most people will point to in evaluating this game, but UTSA ranks near the middle of the pack nationally (61st) in rush defense EPA. Its rush defense has improved since allowing more than 200 rush yards per game on the ground in September. Although the Roadrunners aren't the most prolific offense in the country, they have eclipsed 500 yards three times this year and now face the 119th-rated defense, in terms of efficiency. The teams met two years ago in a 21-9 Lobos win, but UTSA has shown immense improvement this year under Frank Wilson.

UTSA has pulled outright upsets this year as 17- and 19.5-point underdogs, and it covered huge numbers vs. Arizona State and Texas A&M. I expect a great effort from the Roadrunners in their first bowl game; whether it's enough to pull the outright upset remains to be seen, but this should be a four-quarter game on the Lobos' home field.

Score: New Mexico 42, Texas-San Antonio 38
ATS pick: Texas-San Antonio

Will Harris: New Mexico was a 17-point underdog to UTSA just two years ago, but since then, the Roadrunners have made a coaching change, and the Lobos have won a total of 15 games in their two best seasons of the Bob Davie era. Davie rebuilt this program around offense, recruiting plenty of speed to a pistol-oriented option attack. The Lobos ran for a staggering 428 first-half yards in their most recent outing against Wyoming, and this bunch is humming on that side of the ball. It's hard to see UTSA having the answers on defense, so it becomes a question of whether the Runners can trade punches for four quarters.

At this point, we'd be looking to attack this game with the Lobos' offense, which means laying the points, going over a total that is currently 63, plus over on a New Mexico team total that would come in at 35 if the current price holds.

Picks: New Mexico, over 63 (potentially over New Mexico team total)

Las Vegas Bowl Presented by Geico


Houston (-4) vs. San Diego State
3:30 p.m., ABC
Sam Boyd Stadium, Las Vegas

PickCenter consensus: 65 percent Houston

Phil Steele: I like the fact that Houston hired Major Applewhite, the team's former offensive coordinator, a decision that was strongly supported by the players. Houston had an injury-plagued season with quarterback Greg Ward Jr., and its running back and linebacker corps were also banged up for most of the season. In the bowl game, the Cougars should be at their healthiest since their opener against Oklahoma. San Diego State needs to run the ball to be effective, but Houston has one of the nation's best rush defenses, led by elite freshman defensive tackle Ed Oliver.

ATS pick: Houston
Score: Houston 31, San Diego State 23

Will Harris: Houston might be a mess, with jilted interim coach Todd Orlando again coaching the defense in the bowl while new full-time boss Major Applewhite takes over amid some comically outrageous statements from the administration about the school's expectations. This game has seen some widespread sharp action on San Diego State already, but it's doubtful we'll be coming along for the ride.

While understanding that Houston's situation is a still-developing process, you shouldn't let San Diego's State's bowl rout of Cincinnati last year fool you into thinking that this year's championship team is in the same spot. The Aztecs won the Mountain West again, but last year, the Aztecs were in a much better emotional position to play another game. The 2015 team was in the middle of something when it beat Air Force for the MWC title; this year's championship feels more like the end of something the team survived, a crowning achievement. Consequently, there is relief more than hunger, and to boot, there has been a slight loss of confidence down the stretch.

Rocky Long has a well-established bowl track record, and it isn't good: three wins in seven tries. He tends to treat bowls primarily as a reward, and that will be doubly true this season, given the makeup and story of the 2016 squad. Houston might or might not turn out to be equally unbackable -- there's a lot going on, and we don't have a great read yet -- but San Diego State does not profile as a team about to play well in its bowl game.

ATS pick: Houston

Rufus Peabody: Following a 9-1 start, San Diego State (Massey-Peabody rank: No. 34) ended the season with a whimper (though the Aztecs did win the Mountain West), and though recent performance matters more, the whole body of work counts. Houston (Massey-Peabody rank: No. 45) gets the hoopla and has more marquee wins but is the inferior team. San Diego State should be a 2-point favorite; instead, the Aztecs are getting 3.5 points.

Massey-Peabody Line: San Diego State -2.1
ATS pick: San Diego State

"Stanford" Steve Coughlin: First off, we must point out that the Las Vegas Bowl should get a little higher praise from the bowl folks, and could we possibly see this game a little closer to the new year, please? Anyhow, I'm guessing school administrators don't need the idea of their college football teams in Las Vegas on New Year's Eve keeping them up at night.

You'll hear me say this a lot during bowl season, and it's a question I have for every team as it gets set to play its final game of the season: "What's the situation?" I look at Houston as a team that has obviously lost its head coach to Texas, but with the school naming a new head man in Major Applewhite (promoted from within the program, no less), I feel this team will try to make a big splash in the first game on his watch. The Cougars finished second in the country in rush defense, giving up 98 yards per game. I think they slow down Donnel Pumphrey and the Cougs win a well-played game.

Score prediction: Houston 31, SDSU 24
ATS pick: Houston

Raycom Media Camellia Bowl


Appalachian State vs. Toledo (PK)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Cramton Bowl, Montgomery, Alabama

PickCenter consensus: 51 percent Toledo

Phil Steele: It's tough to go against either of these teams, with Appalachian State owning the much stronger defense in this game that has moved to a pick' em. The Rockets come in averaging 39 points per game, and they're the No. 5 team in the country in yardage differential, as their offense generated 128 more yards per game than what their opponents allow on average. Appalachian State has a solid option offense going up against a defense that allows 4.7 yards per carry rush, and those factors have me calling for the over.

Pick: Over 57.5
Score: Toledo 35, Appalachian State 34

Rufus Peabody: Aside from a hiccup at Troy, Appalachian State (Massey-Peabody rank: No. 52) rolled over their (admittedly easy) conference schedule, winning every game by at least two touchdowns. Its other two losses were to Tennessee and Miami, and if you remember, the Mountaineers outplayed Tennessee. Toledo (Massey-Peabody rank: No. 63) has a similar profile and finished with a 9-3 record, but we had Appalachian State better before the season, and we make them a 3.4-point favorite now.

Massey-Peabody Line: Appalachian State -3.4
ATS pick: Appalachian State

AutoNation Cure Bowl


UCF (-5.5) vs. Arkansas State
5:30 p.m., CBS Sports Network
Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Florida

PickCenter consensus: 53 percent Arkansas State

Will Harris: The party in Orlando is just getting started. Scott Frost is a rising superstar who opted not to pursue the vacancy at Oregon and who we figure will land his second and final head-coaching job when he succeeds Mike Riley at alma mater Nebraska several years from now. That said, Frost's crew is statistically ugly at times and was outgained in all eight conference games. The offense is both turnover-prone and inefficient, mostly thanks to the fact that Frost threw talented freshman quarterback McKenzie Milton into the fire early.

The defense has held the point as the offense progressed, and we're looking for both sides to play their best game of the year in a bowl held right across town at the old Citrus Bowl (now known as Camping World Stadium). The key matchup here could be the Red Wolves' lackluster drive-finishing ability. Arkansas State might move the ball some, maybe enough to see that the Knights are outgained again, but the Wolves' red zone prowess doesn't stack up well with that of the Knights' defense.

ATS pick: UCF

Rufus Peabody: Despite a 7-5 record, Arkansas State (Massey-Peabody rank: No. 74) has won seven of its past eight (though the schedule was 123rd-toughest in the nation). The Massey-Peabody model has ASU rated out better than UCF (Massey-Peabody rank: No. 87). I'll gladly take Arkansas State getting 5.5 points.

Massey-Peabody Line: Arkansas State -4.4
Pick: Arkansas State

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl


Southern Mississippi (-5.5) vs. Louisiana-Lafayette
9 p.m., ESPN
Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans

PickCenter consensus: 64 percent Southern Miss

Will Harris: A Jekyll-and-Hyde defense, an injury to senior QB Nick Mullensand a minus-16 turnover margin almost doomed Southern Miss to a losing season, despite a 4-1 start and a soft schedule. Still, the Eagles outgained every team they played, save LSU, and they finished with an upset win over Louisiana Tech that was dominated by the mercurial defense.

That inspired showing provides a big lift heading into this game, but this is still an inconsistent team with a rookie bowl coach and systematic issues with ball security and preventing big plays that will require an offseason to address.

On the other side, it's hard to argue that Louisiana Lafayette coach Mark Hudspeth doesn't know how to win a New Orleans Bowl; he's 4-0 in this game! The Cajuns will be excited to play after sitting out bowl season last year, and the first victory over oft-played regional power Southern Miss since 1993 would be a meaningful addition to the trophy case. This should be one of the best-attended of all bowls, and right now, signs are that Southern Miss has no business laying anybody postseason weight, let alone a hungry, bowl-seasoned Cajuns outfit.

ATS pick: Louisiana-Lafayette


Dec. 19
Miami Beach Bowl


Central Michigan vs. Tulsa (-12.5)
2:30 p.m., ESPN
Marlins Park, Miami

PickCenter consensus: 69 percent Tulsa

Will Harris: Tulsa played well in a 55-52 bowl loss to heavy favorite Virginia Tech last year, but it's worth remembering that second-year coach Philip Montgomery trained under Art Briles, whose teams won just a third of their bowl opportunities. A big bowl showing could leave the Hurricane offense with the remarkably productive combination of a 3,000-yard passer, two 1,500-yard rushers and two 1,000-yard receivers. Central Michigan won't necessarily be an easy out, though.

The Chippewas are a physical, tough-minded group with solid veteran leadership that feels fortunate to be in a Florida bowl and has a bad taste in its mouth from closing the season poorly. It's too early to say for sure, but our sense is that the Chips and their upperclassman-laden lineup will rally and show well, in which case we'd lean toward taking the points and expecting a competitive game.

ATS pick: Central Michigan


Dec. 20
Boca Raton Bowl


Memphis vs. Western Kentucky (-4.5)
7 p.m., ESPN
FAU Stadium, Boca Raton, Florida

PickCenter consensus: 54 percent Memphis

Rufus Peabody: Western Kentucky (Massey-Peabody rank: No. 19) played in the easier conference, but even after controlling for strength of schedule, the Hilltoppers have the nation's 10th-best offense. Two of their three losses were by a field goal or less, and two were to SEC teams. In fact, losing by only 28 in Tuscaloosa is not awful, in hindsight. I'll take WKU -4.5, as I make them an 8.8-point favorite over a Memphis team (Massey-Peabody rank: No. 58) that is only slightly above average.

Massey-Peabody Line: Western Kentucky -8.8
ATS pick: Western Kentucky

"Stanford" Steve Coughlin: Let's not overthink this game one bit. One team, Memphis, is averaging 44 points per game in its last four games of the season and is facing a defense led by defensive coordinator Nick Holt. I'll take any semi-successful offense with time to prepare for Holt's scheme. Plus, Western Kentucky will be playing its first game since the departure of head coach Jeff Brohm, who landed at Purdue. Take the points, and go against the Hilltoppers.

Score: Memphis 56, Western Kentucky 51
ATS pick: Memphis


Dec. 21
San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl


BYU (-9) vs. Wyoming
9 p.m., ESPN
Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego

PickCenter consensus: 53 percent BYU

Phil Steele: Although this is the first bowl game for Wyoming head coach Craig Bohl, he had great success in the FCS playoffs, in which he guided North Dakota State to three national championships. Kalani Sitake is in his first FBS postseason as a head coach at BYU as well, and his squad has a big edge on defense and special teams, making it the stronger team overall. Wyoming has competed well against the top teams on its schedule, though, including beating Boise State, Air Force and San Diego State outright as a double-digit underdog. Running back Brian Hill has rushed for 1,767 yards, and Josh Allen is a dangerous dual-threat quarterback. It's going to be a close one.

ATS pick: Wyoming
Score: BYU 31, Wyoming 28

Will Harris: One of college football's most widely circulated technical trends during the last half of the LaVell Edwards era was the staggeringly bad point-spread performance of WAC teams following a victory over league overlord BYU. Wins against the Cougars were so rare and so cherished by the teams of the old WAC that they were invariably followed by letdown performances. That's indicative of the way BYU is viewed by the schools with this shared history, and Wyoming is a prime example.

The first matchup with a former tormentor since 2010 and an unexpected opportunity for the first series win since 2003 mean this is a big, big game for a surging Wyoming program that is just getting rolling under Craig Bohl. The Pokes match up pretty well physically and should have some answers in all three phases. They're definite live 'dogs at this point.

ATS pick: Wyoming


Dec. 22
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl


Idaho vs. Colorado State (-13.5)
7 p.m., ESPN
Albertsons Stadium, Boise, Idaho

PickCenter consensus: 56 percent Idaho

Will Harris: After being asked to leave the Sun Belt, Idaho decided to drop down to the FCS level in future seasons, but the Vandals' FBS swan song turned out to be the program's best season since 1998. Fourth-year boss Paul Petrino has a third-year starter at quarterback in Matt Linehan, and together they produced an offense that scored more than 40 points per game in a three-game stretch to close the season. The defense did its part too, holding opponents to fewer than 30 points per game for the first time since 2010. The Vandals are equipped to make it a fair fight with a Colorado State team that -- like Idaho -- scored in bunches down the stretch and finished the season on a 7-0 ATS run.

The difference could be that the home-state Vandals see their final FBS tilt as a program-defining moment, while for the Rams it's just a routine bowl assignment in a far-flung postseason outpost against an uninspiring opponent.

ATS pick: Idaho


Dec. 23
Popeyes Bahamas Bowl


Eastern Michigan vs. Old Dominion (-4)
1 p.m., ESPN
Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium, Nassau, Bahamas

PickCenter consensus: 71 percent Old Dominion

Chris Fallica: This should be a fun, high-scoring game featuring one team that's going bowling for the first time and another for the first time since 1987. I think that means this game can be analyzed as one in which you can rely on statistics and not as much on motivation, as both teams definitely want to be here. ODU has beaten Eastern Michigan in each of the past two years, and the Monarchs are improved defensively this year. ODU is also a top-50 offense, while EMU is 96th in defensive efficiency.

Expect the Monarchs to run Ray Lawry with success, which will lead QB David Washington (28 TDs, four INTs this season) to have a big day. The only teams to hold ODU to fewer than 30 points this season are Western Kentucky (10-3), NC State (top-30 defense from the ACC) and Appalachian State (33rd nationally in defensive efficiency). Odds are Eastern Michigan won't break that trend.

Score: Old Dominion 41, Eastern Michigan 31
ATS pick: Old Dominion

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl


Louisiana Tech vs. No. 25 Navy (-4.5)
4:30 p.m., ESPN
Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, Texas

PickCenter consensus: 67 percent La. Tech

Over/under: 66

Phil Steele: Army and Navy both face the option every day in practice, and last week, for the 11th straight year, the game went under the total. Navy scored points in bunches against teams that don't run the option, and its offense was as potent as it had been all year at the end of the regular season. While the Midshipmen opened the season by averaging 21 points per game versus FBS foes in their first three games, in the next seven games, Navy averaged 49 points per game.

Things fell apart in the American Athletic Conference championship game, as Temple had the nation's No. 13 defense and Navy lost quarterback Will Worthearly, which led to just 10 total points for the Midshipmen. Louisiana Tech does not have a top-20 defense (it's actually No. 92), nor does it have familiarity with the option (Navy will be the first it has faced this year). Tech does have a potent offense with two big-time wide receivers in Trent Taylor and Carlos Henderson, who have combined for nearly 3,000 yards. The Bulldogs also have a 1,000-yard rusher in Jarred Craft, and Ryan Higgins is completing 66 percent of his passes with a 37-8 TD-INT ratio. Points will be plentiful.

Pick: Over 66
Score: Louisiana Tech 38, Navy 37

Rufus Peabody: Navy (Massey-Peabody rank: No. 51) is without its starting quarterback and starting running back, who incredibly each broke a foot on the same play in their American Athletic Conference championship game against Temple. With only a week to prepare, the Midshipmen followed that with their first loss to Army in 14 years. With more time to prepare and a start under his belt, my numbers expect that Navy quarterback Zach Abey will improve, and I make Navy a small favorite.

Massey-Peabody Line: Navy -0.2
ATS pick: Navy

Dollar General Bowl


Ohio vs. Troy (-4)
8 p.m., ESPN
Ladd-Peebles Stadium, Mobile, Alabama

PickCenter consensus: 54 percent Troy

Will Harris: The Bobcats won the MAC East but lost the league title game for the fourth time in Frank Solich's 12 seasons with the school. Solich's bowl record at Ohio leaves something to be desired (2-5), but his Bobcats have been underdogs in every game but one and have performed increasingly well in the postseason throughout his tenure. We love the leadership on this team, and this game is a mulligan-type shot at redemption after last year's bowl trip to the Heart of Dixie ended with a blown 17-point fourth-quarter lead and a loss to another Sun Belt power, Appalachian State. Troy has been dynamic offensively behind junior quarterback Brandon Silvers, but Ohio's defense will be by far the best the Trojans have faced all year, save Clemson. It's the Bobcats' ability to hang on that side of the ball that has us leaning toward taking the points.

ATS pick: Ohio


Dec. 24
Hawai'i Bowl


Hawai'i vs. Middle Tennessee (No line)
8 p.m., ESPN
Aloha Stadium, Honolulu

PickCenter


Dec. 26
St. Petersburg Bowl


Miami (Ohio) vs. Mississippi State (-13)
11 a.m., ESPN
Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, Florida

PickCenter consensus: 77 percent Mississippi State

"Stanford" Steve Coughlin: One player I fell in love with as the season went on was Mississippi State quarterback Nick Fitzgerald. I felt he was the most improved player at QB in the SEC over the course of the season. This is a very advantageous matchup for the boys from Starkville, as Miami ranks near the bottom of the country in many offensive stats. Although the Bulldogs struggled on the defensive side this year, I feel their talent level is way higher than that of the Redhawks' offense. Couple that with 15 practices for Dan Mullen to construct a game plan for this Miami team. I'll lay the points with the guys from the SEC.

ATS pick: Mississippi State

Quick Lane Bowl

Maryland (-1.5) vs. Boston College
2:30 p.m., ESPN
Ford Field, Detroit

PickCenter consensus: 53 percent Maryland

Camping World Independence Bowl

NC State (-4) vs. Vanderbilt
5 p.m., ESPN2
Independence Stadium, Shreveport, Louisiana

PickCenter consensus: 54 percent Vanderbilt


Dec. 27
Zaxby's Heart of Dallas Bowl

Army (-10) vs. North Texas
12 p.m., ESPN
Cotton Bowl, Dallas

PickCenter consensus: 52 percent North Texas

Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman

No. 24 Temple (-13.5) vs. Wake Forest
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, Maryland

PickCenter consensus: 53 percent Temple

National Funding Holiday Bowl

Minnesota vs. Washington State (-9)
7 p.m., ESPN
Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego

PickCenter consensus: 84 percent Minnesota

Motel 6 Cactus Bowl

Boise State (-7.5) vs. Baylor
10:15 p.m., ESPN
Chase Field, Phoenix

PickCenter consensus: 67 percent Baylor


Dec. 28
New Era Pinstripe Bowl

No. 23 Pittsburgh (-5) vs. Northwestern
2 p.m., ESPN
Yankee Stadium, Bronx, New York

PickCenter consensus: 79 percent Northwestern

Russell Athletic Bowl

No. 16 West Virginia vs. Miami (-3)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Florida

PickCenter consensus: 52 percent West Virginia

Foster Farms Bowl

Indiana vs. No. 19 Utah (-7)
8:30 p.m., Fox
Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California

PickCenter consensus: 53 percent Utah

AdvoCare V100 Texas Bowl

Texas A&M (-2) vs. Kansas State
9 p.m., ESPN
NRG Stadium, Houston

PickCenter consensus: 54 percent Kansas State


Dec. 29
Birmingham Bowl

South Florida (-10.5) vs. South Carolina
2 p.m., ESPN
Legion Field, Birmingham, Alabama

PickCenter consensus: 58 percent South Carolina

Belk Bowl

Arkansas vs. No. 22 Virginia Tech (-7)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina

PickCenter consensus: 58 percent Arkansas

Valero Alamo Bowl

No. 12 Oklahoma State vs. No. 10 Colorado(-3.5)
9 p.m., ESPN
Alamodome, San Antonio

PickCenter consensus: 51 percent Oklahoma State


Dec. 30
AutoZone Liberty Bowl

Georgia (PK) vs. TCU
12 p.m., ESPN
Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium, Memphis, Tennessee

PickCenter consensus: 78 percent TCU

Hyundai Sun Bowl

No. 18 Stanford (-3.5) vs. North Carolina
2 p.m., CBS
Sun Bowl, El Paso, Texas

PickCenter consensus: 66 percent UNC

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl

Nebraska vs. No. 21 Tennessee (-3)
3:30 p.m., ESPN
Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee

PickCenter consensus: 65 percent Tennessee

Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl

South Alabama vs. Air Force (-13)
5:30 p.m., Campus Insiders
Arizona Stadium, Tucson, Arizona

PickCenter consensus: 56 percent Air Force

Capital One Orange Bowl


No. 6 Michigan vs. No. 11 Florida State (-6.5)
8 p.m., ESPN
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida

PickCenter consensus: 52 percent Michigan


Dec. 31
Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl

No. 20 LSU (-3) vs. No. 13 Louisville
11 a.m., ABC
Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Florida

PickCenter consensus: 63 percent LSU

TaxSlayer Bowl

Georgia Tech (-4) vs. Kentucky
11 a.m., ESPN
EverBank Field, Jacksonville, Florida

PickCenter consensus: 60 percent Georgia Tech


Jan. 2
Outback Bowl

No. 17 Florida (-2) vs. Iowa
1 p.m., ABC
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida

PickCenter consensus: 58 percent Iowa

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic

No. 15 Western Michigan vs. No. 8 Wisconsin(-7.5)
1 p.m., ESPN
AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas

PickCenter consensus: 71 percent Wisconsin

Rose Bowl Game Presented by Northwestern Mutual

No. 9 USC (-6.5) vs. No. 5 Penn State
5 p.m., ESPN
Rose Bowl, Pasadena, California

PickCenter consensus: 52 percent USC

Allstate Sugar Bowl

No. 14 Auburn vs. No. 7 Oklahoma (-3.5)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans

PickCenter consensus: 74 percent Oklahoma

 

Spoiler: Vegas Rankings of All 80 Bowl Teams

• Mackenzie KraemerESPN Staff Writer

Welcome to the final edition of the college football Vegas composite rankings. It's a combination of the power ratings of Phil Steele, Bruce Marshall's The Gold Sheet and ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI).

Because it's bowl season, this edition will list all 80 bowl teams and their numbers. The best team, Alabama, whose rating is 65.1 points, is 43.7 points better on a neutral field than the 80th-best team, North Texas.

The top four teams in these ratings match the top four teams in the College Football Playoff -- the only difference is the order.

All odds referenced below are courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.


1. Alabama Crimson Tide (Rating: 65.1)

The Crimson Tide were the top team at the beginning of the season, and they also close the year as the top team in the consensus rankings. They are listed as 8.1 points better than Washington on a neutral field, but are currently 16-point favorites going into their Dec. 31 semifinal showdown, according to Westgate.



2. Ohio State Buckeyes (Rating: 58.3)

Ohio State enters the College Football Playoff having failed to cover in six of its past eight games. The Buckeyes are 3.5-point favorites over Clemson. Ohio State has been favored in every game this season, but this is the second-shortest favorite it has been all season; the Buckeyes were 1.5-point favorites at Oklahoma in September.


3. Clemson Tigers (Rating: 57.3)

Just like last season, Clemson enters its semifinal game as a 3.5-point underdog. Last year, the Tigers upset Oklahoma as a 3.5-point underdog, and this year, they face Ohio State in a rematch of the January 2014 Orange Bowl, which Clemson won 40-35.


4. Washington Huskies (Rating: 57.0)

After being favored in every game this season, Washington finds itself as a 16-point underdog against Alabama. Last year, Washington was more than a two-touchdown underdog twice, including an outright win over USC as a 17-point underdog.


5. Michigan Wolverines (Rating: 56.4)

Michigan is the best team not in the College Football Playoff. They are 7-point favorites over Florida State in the Orange Bowl. It's only the fourth time Michigan will leave its home state for a game this season; the Wolverines beat Rutgers, and lost to both Iowa and Ohio State.


6. Oklahoma Sooners (Rating: 55.6)

Oklahoma was 9-0 and 6-3 ATS in Big 12 games this season, including a cover in each of its final three games. The Sooners were 0-3 ATS in nonconference games, however, including a loss as a 13-point favorite against Houston in their season opener.


7. USC Trojans (Rating: 54.9)

USC closed out the regular season on an eight-game winning streak, including a cover in each of its last six games. The Trojans' rating has increased more than eight points since they started 1-3.


8. Florida State Seminoles (Rating: 53.7)

Florida State challenged Alabama for No. 1 in these ratings early in the season, but a 63-20 loss against Louisville derailed the Seminoles. They are 7-point underdogs in the Orange Bowl -- the biggest underdog they've been since losing to Oregon as a 9-point underdog in the Rose Bowl following the 2014 season.


9. LSU Tigers (Rating: 53.0)

LSU went 5-2 ATS this season under Ed Orgeron, who has since been named the Tigers' permanent head coach. After its first eight games all went under the total, LSU had two of its last three games go over, including a 54-39 win over Texas A&M on Nov. 24 in a game that featured a total of 48.


10. Penn State Nittany Lions (Rating: 52.9)

Penn State won the Big Ten while covering its final eight games of the season. The last time Penn State lost against the number was in September. The Nittany Lions will face a USC squad on a six-game ATS winning streak of their own in the Rose Bowl.


11. Louisville Cardinals (Rating: 51.9)

Lamar Jackson won the Heisman Trophy as expected, but Louisville slumped at the end of the season. In the Cardinals' last two games, they lost 36-10 as a 16-point favorite at Houston, and then lost as a 28-point favorite against Kentucky on Nov. 26. Louisville will be an underdog for the first time all season against LSU.


12. Wisconsin Badgers (Rating: 51.8)

Wisconsin lost its final two games ATS after starting 9-2. The Badgers now face undefeated Western Michigan in the Cotton Bowl. Wisconsin already handed LSU, Akron, Michigan State and Nebraska their first losses, and hopes to add the Broncos to that list. Wisconsin is a 7.5-point favorite, making this the second time in its past 15 bowl appearances that the Badgers are favored in a bowl game.


13. Auburn Tigers (Rating: 49.8)

Auburn comes into bowl season having lost two of its last three games outright. The Tigers are 3.5-point underdogs against Oklahoma in the Sugar Bowl. It's the first time Auburn will be an underdog in a bowl game since the 2014 BCS Championship Game (2013 season).


14. Colorado Buffaloes (Rating: 49.6)

Colorado started the season on an eight-game ATS winning streak before failing to cover in three of its last five games, including its final two. Colorado is a 3-point favorite in the Alamo Bowl against former Big 12 foe Oklahoma State.


15. Miami Hurricanes (Rating: 49.3)

Miami has been a very streaky team this season. The Hurricanes started 4-0 outright and ATS, then lost their next four games outright and ATS, before recovering to win their final four games outright and ATS.


16. Oklahoma State Cowboys (Rating: 49.3)

Oklahoma State is an underdog in the Alamo Bowl, marking the fifth time in the last six games that the Cowboys will be underdogs. The Cowboys won three of the previous four times outright.


17. Virginia Tech Hokies (Rating: 48.3)

Virginia Tech heads to Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, North Carolina, to face Arkansas in the Belk Bowl. The Hokies closed the season on a three-game ATS winning streak, but its Belk Bowl opponent is 2-0 outright and ATS in bowl games under Bret Bielema.


18. Stanford Cardinal (Rating: 47.9)

Stanford heads to El Paso, Texas, to face North Carolina in the Sun Bowl. David Shaw's team easily covered in its bowl games the past two seasons, including a 45-16 destruction of Iowa in last season's Rose Bowl.


19. West Virginia Mountaineers (Rating: 47.4)

West Virginia heads to the Russell Athletic Bowl to face Miami. During the regular season, the Mountaineers were 0-4 ATS against teams in the top 40 in these ratings, failing to cover against BYU, Kansas State, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.


20. Temple Owls (Rating: 47.4)

Temple finished the season 12-1 ATS -- the best team in the nation in that regard. In fact, the Owls covered each of their last 12 games after losing outright as a 14.5-point favorite in their opener against Army. They are currently 13.5-point favorites over Wake Forest in the Military Bowl.


21. Iowa Hawkeyes (Rating: 47.1)

Iowa finished the season strong, covering its last three games with an upset win over Michigan and blowout wins over Illinois and Nebraska. The total in its Outback Bowl matchup against Florida is 40.5, tied with Temple-West Virginia for the lowest total in bowl season.


22. Kansas State Wildcats (Rating: 47.1)

Kansas State faces former Big 12 foe Texas A&M in the Texas Bowl. The Wildcats are 2-point underdogs in the game. They are 4-0 ATS as a single-digit underdog this season, including three outright wins.


23. Western Michigan Broncos (Rating: 46.5)

Western Michigan is 13-0 outright, but the Broncos will receive their toughest matchup of the season as they face Wisconsin in the Cotton Bowl. Since the College Football Playoff was installed in 2014, Group of 5 teams are 2-0 outright in New Year's Six bowl games, with Boise State beating Arizona and Houston defeating Florida State last year.


24. Washington State Cougars (Rating: 46.3)

Washington State is a 6.5-point favorite in the Holiday Bowl against Minnesota. The Cougars lost their last two regular-season games by double digits, failing to cover either one as an underdog.


25. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (Rating: 46.3)

Western Kentucky enters bowl season with its offense rolling. The Hilltoppers have scored at least 44 points in seven straight games. For context, the only teams with longer streaks in the past 100 years are 2014-15 Oregon and 2011-12 Baylor. The total in their Boca Raton Bowl matchup with Memphis already has risen to 80.5, making it the highest total in a bowl game this season.

Florida Gators 45.9
27 Tennessee Volunteers 45.7
28 North Carolina Tar Heels 45.7
29 Houston Cougars 45.1
30 Utah Utes 45.1
31 Pittsburgh Panthers 44.8
32 BYU Cougars 44.6
33 South Florida Bulls 44.1
34 Texas A&M Aggies 44.1
35 Nebraska Cornhuskers 42.2
36 Boise State Broncos 41.7
37 Tulsa Golden Hurricane 41.2
38 Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets 41.1
39 Memphis Tigers 40.9
40 Navy Midshipmen 40.9
41 TCU Horned Frogs 40.9
42 Minnesota Golden Gophers 40.8
43 Northwestern Wildcats 40.7
44 Arkansas Razorbacks 40.6
45 Georgia Bulldogs 40.5
46 NC State Wolfpack 40.4
47 San Diego State Aztecs 40.4
48 Mississippi State Bulldogs 39.7
49 Vanderbilt Commodores 39.5
50 Kentucky Wildcats 39.3
51 Baylor Bears 38.7
52 Colorado State Rams 38.6
53 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs 38.2
54 Toledo Rockets 37.9
55 Appalachian State Mountaineers 36.9
56 Air Force Falcons 36.4
57 UCF Knights 36.3
58 Indiana Hoosiers 36.2
59 New Mexico Lobos 34.4
60 Wake Forest Demon Deacons 34.0
61 Troy Trojans 33.6
62 Wyoming Cowboys 33.5
63 Old Dominion Monarchs 33.3
64 Boston College Eagles 33.1
65 South Carolina Gamecocks 32.7
66 Army Black Knights 32.4
67 Arkansas State Red Wolves 32.4
68 Ohio Bobcats 31.9
69 Central Michigan Chippewas 30.2
70 Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 29.9
71 Maryland Terrapins 29.4
72 Idaho Vandals 28.9
73 Southern Miss Golden Eagles 28.5
74 UTSA Roadrunners 28.3
75 Eastern Michigan Eagles 27.6
76 Miami (OH) RedHawks 27.6
77 UL Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns 27.4
78 South Alabama Jaguars 23.4
79 Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 22.7
80 North Texas Mean Green 21.4

 

Spoiler: Contrarian Betting for Bowl Games

• 
  David SolarSpecial to ESPN.com

Anyone familiar with Sports Insights knows we advocate a contrarian approach to sports betting. Like contrarian investing, this strategy is characterized by placing funds behind unpopular stocks (or teams) in contrast to prevailing opinions. A contrarian believes mob psychology -- which is largely comprised of casual "weekend warrior" bettors -- can lead to exploitable mispricing.

Within the framework of the sports betting marketplace, most bettors can be categorized as either "sharps" or "squares." Sharps, who are alternatively referred to as wise guys or betting syndicates, spread large bets across multiple sportsbooks. Widely respected, sharps are a smaller group that moves lines across the marketplace. They are not necessarily defined by the size of their wager, but rather by their winning track record and consistent ability to get the best of the number.

The majority of bettors can be categorized as squares, who casually place wagers based on gut feelings and instinct, rather than data analytics and model building. Squares love winning teams and high-scoring games, and therefore tend to pound favorites and overs. This has historically created a slight edge in betting on underdogs and unders.

Widespread pessimism about a team can lead to one-sided betting. This influx of public money often causes sportsbooks to mitigate their risk by adjusting the line, and forcing casual bettors to take a bad number on the popular side of the game. Although they're not necessarily looking to balance their books, oddsmakers excel at accounting for public money, and often shade their opening line to account for known biases.

Using a contrarian philosophy, many strategies can be used to extract value each week. Betting against the public is one cornerstone, but there are additional ways bettors can use public betting information in conjunction with historically profitable trends. Using our historical college football database, I have identified three ways that bettors can win during bowl season.


Betting against the public
At Sports Insights, we track public betting percentages from seven major offshore sportsbooks: 5Dimes, BetDSI, BetUs, Carib, GTBets, SIA and Sportsbook.com. These betting trends reflect real bets placed by real bettors, as opposed to other websites that use "consensus" numbers. By including both sharp and square sportsbooks, our betting percentages accurately reflect which teams the public is backing across the marketplace.

Sportsbooks will adjust their point spreads based on public money only in games with extreme levels of one-sided betting, but bowl season represents a unique opportunity for bettors. With higher-quality matchups and more attention paid to every game, sportsbooks experience much larger handles -- particularly from casual bettors desperate for action. This influx of public money creates value for bettors looking to fade the public.

For more information on this topic I spoke with Scott Cooley, an odds consultant at the offshore sportsbook, Bookmaker.eu. "Obviously the major bowls generate a much bigger handle, but all of them receive pretty good action," Cooley said. "The major bowls will do more in handle than a game during the World Series, outside of Game 7."

With more money at stake, sportsbooks become increasingly willing to shade their lines to account for public money. "The public still has little impact on the odds, but maybe a bit more than normal because the sharps aren't involved in every bowl," Cooley said. Typically sharp bettors are more selective and like to pick their spots. That's much easier during the regular season when there are 50-plus games being played every Saturday.

Contrary to popular belief, oddsmakers do not attempt to balance their book by attracting 50 percent of the action on each side. Instead, they shade their opening lines to capitalize on public perception. Leading up to kickoff, they allow their sharpest bettors to shape the line. However, when there's more public money and less sharp money entering the marketplace, oddsmakers are forced to change their standard procedure.

My research found the average bowl game receives more than three times as many bets than an average regular-season college football game. When I focused exclusively on larger games (specifically BCS bowls and College Football Playoff games) the number of bets are more than five times greater than the average regular-season game. Since the value of betting against the public is directly correlated with the number of bets placed, it shouldn't be surprising to see that betting against the public yields impressive returns during bowl season.

Since 2005, teams receiving less than 50 percent of spread bets have gone 4,336-4,411 ATS (49.6 percent) during the regular season and 195-174 ATS (52.8 percent) during bowl season. When we look at games with more extreme splits between the betting public, those results improve substantially.

NCAAF Bowl Season - Betting Against
PUBLIC BETTING REGULAR SEASON ATS BOWL SEASON ATS
Less than 50 percent of spread bets 4,336-4,411 (49.6 percent) 195-174 (52.8 percent)
Less than 40 percent of spread bets 2,961-3,062 (49.2 percent) 120-84 (58.8 percent)
Less than 33 percent of spread bets 2,133-2,208 (49.1 percent) 65-34 (65.7 percent)

Also worth noting is the performance of underdogs during bowl season. These are typically evenly matched teams, which leads to competitive games. By simply taking the points, bettors gain a slight edge. Since 2005, underdogs have gone 192-184 ATS (51.1 percent) in bowl games. For comparison, 'dogs have gone 4,452-4,455 (50 percent) in regular-season games over that time.

As most bettors already know, "3" and "7" are the most common margins of victory in college football and grabbing the best of any key number is vital to long-term sports betting success. It's always crucial to shop for the best line before placing a wager, but that's particularly true around key numbers.

During bowl season, underdogs of at least 3 points have gone 150-140 ATS (51.7 percent) but underdogs of at least 3.5 points have gone 128-115 ATS (52.7 percent). Similarly, underdogs of at least 7 points have gone 68-63 ATS (51.9 percent) and underdogs of at least 7.5 points have gone 56-47 ATS (54.4 percent).

Based on the current levels of public betting, 11 underdogs are offering contrarian value during bowl season. For what it's worth, bettors should wait until closer to kickoff to place their wagers, since one-sided public betting on their opponent will likely allow bettors to get a better number.

Note: All lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Monday.

1. Dec. 17, Gildan New Mexico Bowl: UTSA (+7) receiving 31 percent of bets against New Mexico.

2. Dec. 23, Popeye's Bahamas Bowl: Eastern Michigan (+4) receiving 31 percent of spread bets against Old Dominion.

3. Dec. 23, Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl: Navy (+3.5) receiving 27 percent of spread bets against Louisiana Tech.

4. Dec. 26, St. Petersburg Bowl: Miami Ohio (+12) receiving 28 percent of spread bets against Mississippi State.

5. Dec. 27, Motel 6 Cactus Bowl: Baylor (+8.5) receiving 31 percent of spread bets against Boise State.

6. Dec. 27, National Funding Holiday Bowl: Minnesota (+6.5) receiving 22 percent of spread bets against Washington State.

7. Dec. 28, New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Northwestern (+5.5) receiving 21 percent of spread bets against Pittsburgh.

8. Dec. 30, Franklin American Mortgage City Bowl: Nebraska (+3) receiving 32 percent of spread bets against Tennessee.

9. Dec. 31, College Football Playoff semifinal: Washington (+15.5) receiving 33 percent of spread bets against Alabama.

10. Jan. 2, Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic: Western Michigan (+7.5) receiving 28 percent of spread bets against Wisconsin.

11. Jan. 2, Allstate Sugar Bowl: Auburn (+4) receiving 26 percent of spread bets against Oklahoma.

Unranked teams vs. ranked opponents
For years, I have argued that ranking systems are flawed across all major college sports. Fans and media alike often tout the talent of a team based on their standings in the national rankings, but what do these rankings really tell us?

The Associated Press Top 25 rankings are formulated in a survey of 65 sportswriters and broadcasters from across the country. Most fans believe, based on the knowledge and insight of these media members, the ranking system is accurate. I disagree. Most of these writers are focused on a specific team or conference, and can't possibly watch every other team across the nation.

As an example, LSU is ranked 19th in the latest AP poll, yet the Tigers would likely be favored against half the teams listed above them. In fact, several oddsmakers I spoke with argued that LSU would be favored against No. 5 Penn State. Clearly this is a flawed metric, yet casual bettors place an inordinate amount of value on these rankings.

Fans often overrate teams when they see any type of ranking next to a school, and it's clear that these rankings are imperfect because we occasionally see unranked schools listed as road favorites against ranked opponents. Being a successful contrarian bettor means always questioning mainstream narratives and capitalizing on these types of widely accepted opinions. When a ranked team plays against an unranked opponent, oddsmakers understand casual bettors will act on instinct and take the ranked team almost every time. Since they anticipate this one-sided action, sportsbooks will shade their opening number to force casual bettors to take a bad number when backing the ranked team. This has historically created value for opportunistic bettors.

During the 2016 season, unranked schools went 111-92 ATS (54.7 percent) against unranked opponents. It's interesting to note there were nine instances in which the unranked team actually closed as the favorite, but the more compelling takeaway is the performance of unranked teams during bowl season.

Since 2005, unranked teams have gone 43-32 ATS (57.3 percent) in bowl games played against ranked opponents. When they're also offering contrarian value and receiving less than 50 percent of spread bets, that record improves to 40-28 ATS (58.8 percent).

AP Top 25 Poll Is Overvalued
CRITERIA ATS RECORD UNITS WON ROI
Unranked Team vs. Ranked Team 43-32 (57.3 percent) +8.60 +11.5 percent
Unranked Team vs. Ranked Team, Against Public 40-28 (58.8 percent) +9.64 +14.2 percent
Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine records

There are currently seven unranked teams facing off against a ranked opponent but, surprisingly, only three of them are being ignored by the majority of public bettors.

1. Dec. 28, New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Northwestern (+5.5) receiving 21 percent of spread bets against No. 23 Pittsburgh.

2. Dec. 28, Russell Athletic Bowl: Miami Florida (+3) receiving 41 percent of spread bets against No. 16 West Virginia.

3. Dec. 30, Hyundai Sun Bowl: North Carolina (+3.5) receiving 35 percent of spread bets against No. 18 Stanford.

Buy low on bad ATS teams
Investors familiar with the concept of "buy low and sell high" may be surprised to learn sports betting is no different. Teams never offer more value than they do after a loss and, conversely, the most favorable time to bet against a team is after a victory.

For bettors, the term "loss" may seem ambiguous since our strategies typically focus on underdogs, who are often able to lose the game while still covering the spread. But what happens when the same teams repeatedly burn bettors? What happens when these teams fail to cover the spread, and bankrolls suffer? When bettors start to lose money faster than Antoine Walker as the casino, panic sets in and bettors begin to overreact. They vow to never let those same teams burn them again. That's when opportunistic contrarians can capitalize on these artificially inflated lines.

My research found that bettors have historically overreacted to teams that have performed poorly against the spread (ATS). Since casual bettors are unwilling to take teams that have consistently failed to cover the spread, oddsmakers shade their lines to account for one-sided public betting. Once again, by capitalizing on public perception we're able to extract contrarian value.

Teams with an ATS winning percentage of less than 50 percent have gone 120-96 ATS (55.6 percent) during bowl season. This figure was somewhat misleading since games featuring two teams with losing ATS records would always result in a 1-1 ATS record. By eliminating all duplicates, the record improves to 88-64 ATS (57.9 percent).

When we look at teams that have performed horribly against the spread, our records improve considerably. Since 2005, teams with an ATS win rate of 33 percent or less have gone 30-13 ATS (69.8 percent) during bowl season. That includes a 19-6 ATS (76 percent) record when they're receiving less than 50 percent of spread bets.

Bowl Teams With Poor ATS Winning Percentage
CRITERIA ATS RECORD UNITS WON ROI
ATS Record <50 percent 88-64 (57.9 percent) +20.05 +13.2 percent
ATS Record 3 percent 30-13 (69.8 percent) +16.26 +37.8 percent
ATS Record 3 percent, Receiving <50 percent of spread bets 19-6 (76.0 percent) +12.65 +50.6 percent
Closing lines from Pinnacle were used to determine records
Duplicates are hidden since they will always result in 1-1 ATS record

There are seven teams who finished the 2016 regular season with an ATS winning percentage of 33 percent or lower: Baylor (3-9), Boise State (3-9), Maryland (4-8), South Alabama (3-8), Southern Mississippi (3-8), TCU (3-9) and Texas A&M (4-8). Surprisingly, four of these teams are actually receiving the majority of spread bets at our contributing sportsbooks. That means there are only three "buy-low" candidates that are also providing bettors with contrarian value.

1. Dec. 27, Motel 6 Cactus Bowl: Baylor (+8.5) receiving 31 percent of spread bets against Boise State.

2. Dec. 30, Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl: South Alabama (+13) receiving 47 percent of spread bets against Air Force.

3. Dec. 30, AutoZone Liberty Bowl: TCU (+1) receiving 24 percent of spread bets against Georgia.

At the time of publication, there are 15 teams offering value during bowl season with Northwestern (+5.5) and Baylor (+8.5) the only teams fitting multiple contrarian systems. That said, it's important to realize that these lines and betting trends are always subject to change, so make sure to check ESPN Chalk's Live Odds page over the upcoming weeks for latest information.

 

Spoiler: ESPN Early Bowl Betting Guide

• 
  Will HarrisSpecial to ESPN.com

In the end, the preseason favorites took home the hardware in every Power 5 conference save the Big Ten, where the preseason favorite (Ohio State) represented the league in the College Football Playoff anyway. Plenty of drama occurred along the way despite few surprises at the finish.

Now it's time to look ahead to the bowls, the playoff and what lies ahead for college football's most dysfunctional conference. Here's our early betting look at bowl season, including early wagering opportunities.

Games of interest

Miami Hurricanes (-3) vs. West Virginia Mountaineers

We love the way Mark Richt prepares his teams for the postseason, as he's a master at making sure the players don't do too much or too little in all those bowl practices and peak at just the right time. After Richt's successful 8-4 debut with a lot of underclassmen in the lineup, enthusiasm around the Miami program is as high as it has been in years. This team will be excited to play, and the Canes look like a rapidly maturing outfit with a good chance to put it together and play their best game of the year in the bowl. A solid partisan crowd could be a difference-maker.


West Virginia has a good defensive team with good chemistry, but the offense is thin at receiver and has struggled to move the ball through the air. The Mountaineers' fate was determined early, as they headed into the last week of the season essentially guaranteed no better or worse than this bowl berth and third place in the Big 12. The team is 2-0 and 1-1 against the spread post-Oklahoma, but hasn't played with the same edge since that whipping at the hands of the Sooners.


Nebraska Cornhuskers (+3) vs. Tennessee Volunteers

We were hoping that Iowa would be the designated instrument with which to fade this Tennessee team in turmoil, but Nebraska will probably suffice. Huskers backers will get a top-notch bowl coach, improved team health and a squad that thinks this Music City date with Tennessee is a bigger deal than the Vols do. Tennessee is a fractured team drifting further apart despite the efforts of a few outstanding leaders. The bottom line in this program is that no one believes anymore.

Years of the same dogmatic message have yielded the same mistakes again and again, and now neither the players nor the fan base is really buying what Butch Jones is selling any longer. Instability in the administration might save Jones' job temporarily, but this was a sinking ship long before the Commodore broadside punched a hole in the hull.


Mississippi State Bulldogs (-12) vs. Miami (OH) RedHawks

This price is only in check because the Bulldogs have scuffled against the three physically inferior teams on the schedule this year. But South Alabama, Massachusetts and Samford were a long time ago, and this team has notched wins over Texas A&M and Ole Miss since then. The youthful lineup has shown steady progress, and the team was playing with a lot more confidence in November. Nick Fitzgerald may be just a sophomore, but he's already the second-best quarterback Dan Mullen has had at State.

A 6-6 MAC squad isn't the most inspiring opponent for an SEC West team that was on top of the college football world just two Novembers ago, and it's not hard to see the Dogs showing up with something less than their A-game. But if they do manage to bring start-to-finish focus to the bowl prep, Miami will be outmanned. There's a significant rosterwide size and speed differential, and that means that with sufficient desire to win, State can take this one along the lines of 49-14.

Early playoff outlook
The committee made Clemson the No. 2 seed, but the oddsmakers see Ohio State as the favorite, installing the Buckeyes as 3.5-point chalk. In the other semifinal, Alabama lays Washington 15.5, the largest price on any game on the postseason slate. Here's the how the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook sees the foursome's chances of winning it all:

Alabama 2-5
Ohio State 7-2
Clemson 7-1
Washington 18-1

The quarterback talent in this group is striking. Clemson's Deshaun Watson and Ohio State's J.T. Barrett are seasoned vets and leadership hall of famers. Washington's second-year man Jake Browning is a top-five efficiency guy and ace deep-ball artist, while Alabama's Jalen Hurts is the unflappable freshman with the gliding speed. All four offenses have a capable running game to boot, but the winners might be the defenses that manage to affect the talented opposing quarterback the most.

The question for Washington is whether the team can find a way to protect Browning. The Huskies' offensive line is the team's weak link, and it was exposed against USC. Don't count the Huskies out automatically, though. Chris Petersen and his staff can tell from the film that the Huskies will need creative answers when it comes to blocking Alabama's defenders, and they have the playmakers to manufacture some offense despite losing the battle at the line of scrimmage. The Huskies won't be able to sustain drives, but this bunch is explosive, and if they can find just a small handful of big plays on offense, the defense might be good enough to keep Washington in the game. This 2016 Huskies team hasn't been tagged as an underdog until now, and Petersen is just 5-5 taking points at Washington, but at Boise State he was 6-1 ATS as a 'dog, with five outright victories.

The other semifinal poses the question of whether Ohio State can improve its biggest weakness -- the downfield passing game -- enough to capitalize on Clemson's biggest weakness, which is a secondary that's had assignment and coverage issues at times. It's also a rematch of the 2014 Orange Bowl, where Clemson served Urban Meyer his second loss at Ohio State. Dabo Swinney remains the only coach besides Lloyd Carr to get the best of Meyer in a bowl game.

Bowl selection winners

Auburn Tigers

An 8-4 record doesn't usually land you the most coveted SEC bowl slot and a date with a conference champ and blue-blood program, but no SEC team save Alabama won more than eight games in a down year for the league. Auburn had the worst head-to-head record within the pool of 8-4 teams, all of which ended the season on a low note. But Auburn and a healthy Sean White at quarterback would be favored over Florida, Tennessee or Texas A&M right now. Not counting its turn as a semifinal game in 2014, the Sugar Bowl hasn't been decided by single digits since the 2012 game between Michigan and Virginia Tech. That should change, as I think two good teams put on a high-scoring show that comes down to the wire.


USC Trojans

The Trojans weren't even division champs, but they played like they were down the stretch and -- like Auburn -- landed what is traditionally their league's biggest prize.

Gator Bowl

For the second time in three years, the 70-year old bowl game now officially and temporarily dubbed the TaxSlayer Bowl hosts an SEC fan base starved for post-New Year's bowl action. Two years ago, Tennessee hadn't played in January since 2008, and Vol fans came in droves to this bowl to watch their team demolish Iowa. The Wildcats played in January in their last postseason appearance, in Birmingham, Alabama, in 2011, but they haven't played in a traditional New Year's Day bowl since the 1998 season. A fired up Big Blue Nation will invade Jacksonville in force.

Teams with high Academic Progress Rate scores

We wrote last year: "The inclusion of 5-7 teams adds a new wrinkle to handicapping the bowl season. It will be interesting to see how many of these teams play with something to prove after having to hear how they don't really deserve a bid ... at least one team will get mad about proving its worth because of this, and it's the handicapper's job to find it."

Well, the three 5-7 teams were 3-0 straight up and ATS last year, and there's no question that the general scorn for the "bloated" bowl season motivated these teams, two of the three significantly. The above still applies, but slightly less so now and still less so as we go forward. Last season was the time to really pursue that angle, and as 5-7 teams steadily become an established fixture in bowl season, the players will stop hearing that they don't belong and fewer and fewer teams will be fueled by it in any meaningful way.

Bowl selection losers

Air Force Falcons

Air Force was 9-3, won the Commander-in-Chief's Trophy, finished the year with five straight wins and beat Boise State the last week of the season, but the Mountain West's three most desirable bowl assignments went elsewhere. The Falcons were left with an uninspiring matchup with a 6-6 South Alabama team. San Diego State and Wyoming will play non-Power 5 conference big shots in Houston and BYU, while Boise State gets a crack at a Big 12 foe in Baylor. This is definitely a situation to watch, as Air Force players have vented their frustration as freely as their fans.


Temple Owls

Not only did Temple lose head coach Matt Rhule, the Owls also got the short end of the American's bowl selection process despite winning the league's championship. Most of the league's affiliated bowls are in Florida (or off the coast of Florida), but instead of drawing a destination game in a warm climate that would excite players and fans alike, the Owls were served leftovers, forced to return to Annapolis, Maryland, and the same stadium in which they played their last game. At least it will bring back good memories. But the bowl blew this one doubly because if the Owls must go to the Military Bowl, they could at least have been matched up with northeast rival Boston College and former head coach Steve Addazio instead of Wake Forest.

Texas A&M and Tennessee

Dreams of relevance end with four losses, bowl matchups with unranked underdogs from Big Eight country and a postseason commute instead of a destination.

Interim coaches take the stage
So far Temple, South Florida, Western Kentucky, Houston and Baylor will have lame duck interim staffs coaching their teams' bowl games. That list is sure to expand, and those games warrant special attention. Teams in that circumstance rarely play their middling B-game. They typically either rally around the interim staff and prepare and play like they're on a mission, or they fracture and turn in a C performance indicative of indifferent preparation. We'll be watching all of these teams closely to get an accurate read; all we can tell you for now is that you can bank on Baylor coming to play with a purpose. When handicapping these situations, don't forget the assistants. Staffs are often shorthanded and juggling responsibilities, and there are frequently first-time playcallers in a coordinator role.

Chalk bits
Temple lost to Army to open the season, then rattled off 12 straight covers to take home college football's ATS crown.

Colorado began the season with 10 consecutive covers, but finished with back-to-back ATS losses.

Baylor, Boise State, South Alabama, Southern Mississippi and TCU all ended the season 3-9 ATS and are the only bowl teams to cover fewer than four games.

Both Quick Lane Bowl participants, Boston College and Maryland, failed to beat an FBS team with a winning record this year.

Some teams are running into familiar foes they didn't expect to see again. Popeyes Bahamas Bowl entrants Old Dominion and Eastern Michigan played both this September and last, with the Monarchs winning both times. New Mexico and UTSA split a pair of games in 2013 and 2014.

Houston's win over Louisville was the Cougars' only cover in their last seven games, but opposing sideline boss Rocky Long of San Diego State is just 3-7 straight up and ATS in bowl games.

Utah's Kyle Whittingham is 9-1 in bowl games, and only Petersen has beaten him.

The Ohio Bobcats saw every game save the opener go under the total, and bowl partner Troy might be a willing participant despite a reputation for warp-speed offense. The Trojans have gone under in seven of their past nine games, even without once facing a total in the sixties.

Louisiana Tech and New Mexico have both seen 10 games go over the total, while 11 of Pittsburgh's have done the same. Arkansas State has been the biggest under team in a bowl, sending just two games over the total all year.

No bowl team has failed to cover a road game this year, while Wisconsin, Minnesota, BYU and Temple are all perfect versus the number away from home.

 

Saturday, December 17th

***SD State +4
***App. State +1
****Arkansas St. +6
**Arkansas St./UCF Under 49.5

 

Spoiler: Scouts Inc Picking Every Bowl Game

• Steve Muench
• Kevin Weidl

Wouldn't you love to know how every college football postseason game will play out?

Or better yet, what if you got TWO picks for each of the 41 bowl games?

Scouts Inc. analysts Steve Muench and Kevin Weidl assess and predict a final score for every game (except for the three bowls that Weidl is broadcasting).

All times Eastern.

Gildan New Mexico Bowl: New Mexico vs. Texas-San Antonio

(2 p.m., ESPN, University Stadium, Albuquerque, New Mexico)

Muench: Texas-San Antonio gave up an average of 4.35 yards per carry this year, and the Roadrunners are going to have a tough time slowing down a New Mexico offense that leads the FBS in rushing yards per games and per carry, especially with running back Tyrone Owens expected to return from a foot injury that sidelined him for the regular season finale. Pick: New Mexico 35, UTSA 24

Weidl: How well the Road Runners can limit the Lobos' No. 1-ranked rushing offense will play a critical role in the outcome of this game. No pick -- in the broadcast booth for the game

Las Vegas Bowl presented by Geico: Houston vs. San Diego State
(3:30 p.m., ABC, Sam Boyd Stadium, Las Vegas)

Muench: San Diego State running back Donnel Pumphrey is electric with the ball in his hands, and Houston's reaction to the coaching change as well as the disappointing loss to Memphis in the regular season finale is a wild card. That said, a Houston defense that has surrendered fewer yards per carry than any other FBS team besides Alabama and features true freshman defensive tackle Ed Oliver slows Pumphrey and gets the Cougars the win. Pick: Houston 35, San Diego State 28

Weidl: The time off before the game will allow Houston's dynamic QB Greg Ward Jr. to come in healthier than he has been since the beginning of the year. On the flip side, look for the Coogs' defense led by freshman standout DT Ed Oliver to slow the Aztecs' ground game down just enough to pull out a close victory in recently promoted Major Applewhite's first game as head coach. Pick: Houston 27, San Diego State 24

Raycom Media Camellia Bowl: Appalachian State vs. Toledo
(5:30 p.m., ESPN, Cramton Bowl, Montgomery, Alabama)

Muench: Toledo's Logan Woodside is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country, and running back Kareem Hunt is a tough hard-nosed runner. But as explosive as the Rockets' offense is, Appalachian State's run-heavy offense will limit Toledo's possession by controlling the clock, and its aggressive 3-4 defense will give the Rockets' offensive line enough problems for the Mountaineers to eke out a win. Pick: Appalachian State 28, Toledo 27

Weidl: Look for the Mountaineers' ability to run the ball with RBs Jalin Mooreand Marcus Cox to allow them to sustain drives and keep an explosive Toledo offense off track just enough to pull out the victory in an entertaining battle that comes down to the wire. Pick: Appalachian State 37, Toledo 35

AutoNation Cure Bowl: UCF vs. Arkansas State
(5:30 p.m., CBS Sports Network, Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Florida)

Muench: UCF has struggled to run the ball with any kind of consistency, and a Red Wolves' pass rush led by defensive ends Chris Odom and Ja'Von Rolland-Jones is more than capable of pressuring freshman quarterback McKenzie Milton into making some critical mistakes. Arkansas State has the edge in momentum, as the Red Wolves won seven of their last eight games after opening the season with four straight losses. Central Florida ended the season on a two-game slide. Pick: Arkansas State 24, UCF 20

Weidl: Expect a low-scoring battle as both squads have struggled to find consistency on offense. I give the advantage to the Knights though due to the coaching edge under first-year head coach Scott Frost, who will have his team motivated to be back in a bowl after a winless 0-12 campaign in 2015. Pick: UCF 24, Arkansas State 16

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: Southern Mississippi vs. Louisiana-Lafayette
(9 p.m., ESPN, Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans)

Muench: Louisiana-Lafayette running back Elijah McGuire has an above-average blend of vision, foot speed and determination, which doesn't bode well for a Southern Miss run defense that allows an average of 4.7 yards per carry. That said, the Ragin' Cajuns don't have the consistent passing attack to prevent the Golden Eagles from loading up against the run. Southern Miss quarterback Nick Mullens is an efficient passer with the weapons to move the ball against Louisiana-Lafayette and he'll be as healthy as he has been in a long time. Pick: Southern Miss 35, Louisiana-Lafayette 31

Weidl: The Ragin' Cajuns come into the game with the momentum, but the Golden Eagles' advantage at quarterback with veteran Mullens will be the difference in a high-scoring affair. Pick: Southern Miss 42, Louisiana-Lafayette 30

Dec. 19

Miami Beach Bowl: Central Michigan vs. Tulsa
(2:30 p.m., ESPN, Marlins Park, Miami)

Muench: Central Michigan quarterback Cooper Rush faces a Tulsa pass defense that gave up some big plays against Cincinnati in the regular-season finale, and he's more than capable of taking advantage if the Golden Hurricanes don't clean up their mistakes. Tulsa still gets the nod though, as the Chippewas are going to have a tough time slowing running backs James Flanders and D'Angelo Brewer who have both rushed for over 1,300 yards this year. Pick: Tulsa 42, Central Michigan 35

Weidl: Despite a strong showing by Rush, the Hurricanes' potent offense will be too much for the Chippewas to keep pace with. Pick: Tulsa 52, Central Michigan 35

Dec. 20

Boca Raton Bowl: Memphis vs. Western Kentucky
(7 p.m., ESPN, FAU Stadium, Boca Raton, Florida)

Muench: Western Kentucky wide receiver Taywan Taylor is an above-average route runner with the burst to produce after the catch and threaten downfield. Making matters worse for a Memphis pass defense that surrendered 487 yards to Houston in the regular-season finale, the Hilltoppers will move Taylor around and put him in motion, making it tougher to scheme against him. The Tigers counter with Anthony Miller, who has caught 10 passes for more than 150 yards in three of his last five games. Western Kentucky still gets the comfortable win thanks to Taylor and its superior defense. Pick: Western Kentucky 45, Memphis 35

Weidl: Expect a high-scoring affair as both offenses can strike quickly. The edge goes to the Hilltoppers, who are more suited on defense to make enough stops to be the difference. Pick: Western Kentucky 41, Memphis 35

Dec. 21

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl: BYU vs. Wyoming
(9 p.m., ESPN, Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego)

Muench: Losing quarterback Taysom Hill to an elbow injury in the regular-season finale is unfortunate for BYU. It's not enough to give Wyoming the win though, as Tanner Mangum is a capable backup who started 12 games in 2015 and will have had close to a month to prepare. Look for 220-pound back Jamaal Williams to put up big numbers against a vulnerable Cowboys run defense. Pick: BYU 28, Wyoming 17

Weidl: BYU will be without Hill, but Mangum is a seasoned backup and will do a solid job. Ultimately, the Cougars' stingy defense will slow down Wyoming RB Brian Hill enough to pull out a victory in a relatively low-scoring affair. Pick: BYU 24, Wyoming 20

Dec. 22

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl: Idaho vs. Colorado State
(7 p.m., ESPN, Albertsons Stadium, Boise, Idaho)

Muench: Instead of going in the tank after losing his starting job to freshman Collin Hill, Colorado State quarterback Nick Stevens elevated his play when Hill went down with a season-ending knee injury, and the efficient passer finished the season 14th in the FBS with a 65.5 completion percentage. The Rams' ground game that features a deep backfield will take pressure off Stevens and keep the Vandals off balance. Pick: Colorado State 42, Idaho 28

Weidl: The Vandals will play inspired in their first bowl appearance since 2009. However, the Rams offense behind Stevens, who has provided a spark late in the year, will make enough plays late to give Colorado State the win in a game much closer than the experts think. Pick: Colorado State 33, Idaho 28

Dec. 23

Popeyes Bahamas Bowl: Eastern Michigan vs. Old Dominion
(1 p.m., ESPN, Thomas A. Robinson National Stadium, Nassau, Bahamas)

Muench: While both offenses should have success moving the ball, quarterback David Washington and running back Ray Lawry give Old Dominion the edge. Washington's 28-to-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio is impressive, and Lawry is an instinctive runner with deceptive burst. Pick: Old Dominion 38, Eastern Michigan 31

Weidl: The Monarchs get a close victory and end a breakout season with six consecutive victories. Pick: Old Dominion 37, Eastern Michigan 28

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl: Louisiana Tech vs. No. 25 Navy
(4:30 p.m., ESPN, Amon G. Carter Stadium, Fort Worth, Texas)

Muench: Navy's option attack will test a Louisiana Tech run defense that looked vulnerable over its last two games, and the Midshipmen's commitment to the ground game will help limit the explosive Bulldogs' possessions by eating clock. They are still going to come up short though. Louisiana Tech quarterback Ryan Higgins, who has thrown for over 400 yards five times this year, is mobile enough to overcome breakdowns in the protection and accurate enough to hit star receivers Trent Taylor and Carlos Henderson. Pick: Louisiana Tech 42, Navy 31

Weidl: The Midshipmen suffered a big blow with season-ending injuries to QB Will Worth and running back Toneo Gulley in the conference championship. Adding to it, the Bulldogs' defensive strength is stopping the run, and the extra time to prepare will allow them to make just enough stops to get the win in a high-scoring battle. Pick: Louisiana Tech 42, Navy 38

Dollar General Bowl: Ohio vs. Troy
(8 p.m., ESPN, Ladd-Peebles Stadium, Mobile, Alabama)

Muench: Ohio's run defense has been outstanding this year, allowing an average of just 2.9 yards per carry, and its front four will make it difficult for Troy running back Jordan Chunn to find room. Trojan quarterback Brandon Silvers picks defenses apart when he gets into a rhythm, and no team has given up fewer sacks than Troy this year. However, an Ohio pass rush led by defensive end Tarell Basham has been one of the best in the country and will make it tough for Silvers to get comfortable even if they don't rack up the sacks. Pick: Ohio 21, Troy 20

Weidl: Troy's Chunn will be the best player on the field, but look for the Bobcats' defense to keep him in check enough to get the win. Pick: Ohio 20, Troy 16

Dec. 24

Hawai'i Bowl: Hawai'i vs. Middle Tennessee
(8 p.m., ESPN, Aloha Stadium, Honolulu)

Muench: The availability of Middle Tennessee quarterback Brent Stockstill, who missed the last three games of the season with a shoulder injury, is worth keeping an eye on. The Blue Raiders get the win regardless, and running back I'Tavius Mathers is the biggest reason why. Mathers is a shifty runner who has rushed for over 1,500 yards and 16 touchdowns, and he faces what has been one of the most porous run defenses in the country. He's also an above-average receiver, so the Warriors must keep tabs on him when Middle Tennessee drops back to pass. Pick: Middle Tennessee 49, Hawai'i 28

Weidl: The Rainbow Warriors will ride the legs of RB Steven Lakalaka and the rest of their stable of running backs to victory. Pick: Hawai'i 42, Middle Tennessee 35

Dec. 26

St. Petersburg Bowl: Miami (Ohio) vs. Mississippi State
(11 a.m., ESPN, Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, Florida)

Muench: It's tough to pick against quarterback Gus Ragland, who led a Miami (Ohio) squad that had lost its first six games to six consecutive wins after he took over as the starter in the middle of October. He's tough -- he tore the ACL in his right knee in April -- and he's smart. That said, as well as the RedHawks have defended the run, they are going to have a tough time slowing a Mississippi State ground game that ranks 10th in the FBS in yards per attempt and features quarterback Nick Fitzgerald. Fitzgerald is a first-year starter who flashed as a passer late in the season and will benefit from the bowl preparation. Pick: Mississippi State 31, Miami (Ohio) 21

Weidl: The motivation factor for Mississippi State combined with a solid RedHawks defense will keep this one close, but look for Fitzgerald to eventually make enough plays in the second half to get the win. Pick: Mississippi State 45, Miami (Ohio) 24

Quick Lane Bowl: Maryland vs. Boston College
(2:30 p.m., ESPN, Ford Field, Detroit)

Muench: Full disclosure, I played for Boston College defensive coordinator Jim Reid when he was the head coach at Richmond, but I'd like to think that I'd still take the Eagles because of their defense. A Boston College run defense that's surrendering an average of 3.1 yards per carry will bottle up Maryland running back Ty Johnson. The Terrapins are going to have a tough time keeping quarterback Perry Hills upright thanks in large part to Eagles defensive end Harold Landry, who is tied for the FBS lead in sacks with 15. Finally, Landry leads the FBS with seven forced fumbles, and Hills lost two fumbles on strip-sacks despite missing time with injuries. Pick: Boston College 21, Maryland 17

Weidl: Maryland gets the win behind the big-play ability of Johnson and Hills, who will benefit from the time off to heal a shoulder injury that limited him since early in the season. Pick: Maryland 20, Boston College 13

Camping World Independence Bowl: NC State vs. Vanderbilt
(5 p.m., ESPN2, Independence Stadium, Shreveport, Louisiana)

Muench: Vanderbilt sophomore quarterback Kyle Shurmur is coming off an impressive performance against Tennessee. He'll need another strong showing for the Commodores to get the win, because a North Carolina State run defense that's tied for seventh in the FBS in rushing yards allowed per carry will get into gaps and make it tough for Vanderbilt to run with any consistency. The problem is that's unlikely considering the ability of North Carolina State's front four, starting with defensive end Bradley Chubb, to get after the quarterback. Pick: NC State 21, Vanderbilt 14

Weidl: This one will come down to how well Vandy can establish the run behind RB Ralph Webb against a stout Wolfpack front seven and if NC State is able to limit the self-inflicted wounds that have plagued them all season. No pick -- on the broadcast for the game

Dec. 27

Zaxby's Heart of Dallas Bowl: Army vs. North Texas
(noon, ESPN, Cotton Bowl, Dallas)

Muench: North Texas dropped four of its last five games, while Army ended the season with consecutive wins, including its historic victory over Navy. Mean Green starting quarterback Mason Fine missed the final two games of the season, and whether he plays is an unknown at this point. Plus, Army quarterback Ahmad Bradshaw is unlikely to throw four interceptions again, so expect a different game then when these two teams met in October and North Texas beat Army by 17. Look for Army to clean up the mistakes that led to North Texas running back Jeffrey Wilson gashing them earlier in the year, take better care of the football and get the win. Pick: Army 31, North Texas 24

Weidl: North Texas's struggling run defense will pose no match for the Black Knights' second-ranked rushing attack. This one has potential to get out of hand quickly. Pick: Army 42, North Texas 17

Military Bowl Presented by Northrop Grumman: No. 24 Temple vs. Wake Forest
(3:30 p.m., ESPN, Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis, Maryland)

Muench: Temple's swarming run defense held Navy to 168 yards on 44 carries in the American championship game and will frustrate a Wake Forest ground game that ranks 100th in the country in rushing yards per game. Haason Reddick is an explosive edge, and the Owls should have some success pressuring quarterback John Wolford who has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns this year. There is some concern about the coaching change and how it may affect the players, but I expect the Owls to finish strong with an 11-win season on the line and a four-year starter at quarterback in Phillip Walker. Pick: Temple 31, Wake Forest 17

Weidl: Head coach Matt Rhule left for Baylor, however, Temple is a senior-laden team with the leadership to keep them focused. The Owls continue to get it done with a swarming defense and physical ground attack. Pick: Temple 30, Wake Forest 10

National Funding Holiday Bowl: Minnesota vs. Washington State
(7 p.m., ESPN, Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego)

(Editor's note: These Holiday Bowl picks were made before the news that multiple Minnesota players had been suspended, and the team was threatening a boycott of the game.)

Muench: Minnesota's Rodney Smith is an underrated back with the balance and vision to give a Washington State defense that had some problems defending the run late in the season problems and keep the score close. The Cougars win in the end though, as quarterback Luke Falk bounces back from his disappointing finish to the regular season and gets back to picking defenses apart with quick decisions and above-average accuracy. Pick: Washington State 35, Minnesota 31

Weidl: Minnesota's defense keeps this one close, but Falk will make enough throws late in the second half to get the victory. Pick: Washington State 27, Minnesota 23

Motel 6 Cactus Bowl: Boise State vs. Baylor
(10:15 p.m., ESPN, Chase Field, Phoenix)

Muench: While the Bears should come ready to play with new head Matt Rhule evaluating the roster, it's going to take more than a strong effort to beat the Broncos. A Baylor team that lost its last six games and surrendered 35 or more points in five of those games is going to face a Boise State offense that features one of the most versatile backs in the country in Jeremy McNichols in addition to fielding two 1,000-yard receivers in Thomas Sperbeck and Cedrick Wilson. Pick: Boise State 35, Baylor 27

Weidl: The Broncos tandem of QB Brett Rypien and the versatile playmaking of McNichols will be too much for a Baylor team that has nosedived in the second half of the season. Pick: Boise State 49, Baylor 28

Dec. 28

New Era Pinstripe Bowl: No. 23 Pittsburgh vs. Northwestern
(2 p.m., ESPN, Yankee Stadium, Bronx, New York)

Muench: Pittsburgh is going to have a hard time matching up with Northwestern receiver Austin Carr, who is an above-average route runner with the quickness and toughness to produce after the catch. However, Pitt's pass rush will make it tough for quarterback Clayton Thorson to get into a rhythm with defensive end Ejuan Price leading the way. While the Wildcats' run defense ranks 36th in rushing yards allowed per game, expect an inspired effort from Panthers big back James Conner, who bounced back to rush for over 1,000 yards this year and declared for the draft. Pick: Pittsburgh 42, Northwestern 35

Weidl: This will be one of the best games of the bowl season. Northwestern gets a late fourth-quarter drive from Thorson to pull off a win. Pick: Northwestern 31, Pittsburgh 30

Russell Athletic Bowl: No. 16 West Virginia vs. Miami
(5:30 p.m., ESPN, Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Florida)

Muench: As well as West Virginia's defense has played at times, it's going to have a tough time slowing a balanced Miami offense that averaged 38 points over the last four games of the season. Quarterback Brad Kaaya has a plethora of weapons, including receivers Stacy Coley and Ahmmon Richards, in addition to tight end David Njoku. Running back Mark Walton has rushed for over 100 yards in three of his last four games and is much tougher to tackle than his 205-pound frame would suggest. Pick: Miami 31, West Virginia 24

Weidl: These teams match up well, and in a close game the special teams could play a big factor. Advantage Hurricanes, who will pull off a late victory and carry the momentum of a five-game winning streak into the offseason for Mark Richt. Pick: Miami 26, West Virginia 24

Foster Farms Bowl: Indiana vs. No. 19 Utah
(8:30 p.m., Fox, Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara, California)

Muench: Indiana quarterback Richard Lagow has thrown multiple interceptions in five games including the regular-season finale, and he faces a Utah defense with the ability to pressure him into mistakes and then turn those mistakes into turnovers. Defensive end Hunter Dimick is a powerful pass rusher, and free safety Marcus Williams is a playmaker with four picks. There are concerns about the way the Hoosiers will react to the resignation of head coach Kevin Wilson. Pick: Utah 28, Indiana 17

Weidl: Utah's opportunistic secondary will force a few turnovers from Lagow who has struggled as a decision-maker. That will be the difference in a relatively low-scoring battle. Pick: Utah 24, Indiana 20

AdvoCare V100 Texas Bowl: Texas A&M vs. Kansas State
(9 p.m., ESPN, NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas)

Muench: I'm concerned about Texas A&M's ability to slow Kansas State's ground game, but the Aggies have the talent up front to get the job done and plenty of time to prepare. More important, the time off also gives the most important player on each side of the ball time to get healthy. All-world defensive end Myles Garrett has been hindered by an ankle injury, and the dual-threat quarterback Trevor Knight missed two of the last three games with a shoulder injury. Finally, Texas A&M has done a good job of covering kicks and is capable of preventing Kansas State's talented return men from making a momentum shifting play. Pick: Texas A&M 28, Kansas State 24

Weidl: After a 6-0 start and fizzling down the stretch, how motivated will the Aggies be? The Wildcats' stingy defense will play well, and they will find enough success on the ground to get the victory. Pick: Kansas State 30, Texas A&M 27

Dec. 29

Birmingham Bowl: South Florida vs. South Carolina
(2 p.m., ESPN, Legion Field, Birmingham, Alabama)

Muench: A South Florida team that averages 43.6 points per game didn't just lose its head coach when Willie Taggert took the Oregon job. It also lost its playcaller, and that's reason for concern. In addition, South Carolina has exceeded expectations in Will Muschamp's first season, and key freshmen like quarterback Jake Bentley should benefit from getting the extra work in leading up to the bowl. However, Bulls quarterback Quinton Flowers is one of the most dangerous players in the country. His ability to make plays with his feet and his arm will lead South Florida to the win. Pick: South Florida 35, South Carolina 27

Weidl: True freshman Bentley has a bright future and will need to play extremely well for the Gamecocks to keep pace with a high-powered Bulls offense led by Flowers. No pick -- on the broadcast for the game

Belk Bowl: Arkansas vs. No. 22 Virginia Tech
(5:30 p.m., ESPN, Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, North Carolina)

Muench: No FBS team gave up more rushing yards per carry than Arkansas this year, and while Virginia Tech's isn't the most explosive ground game, it's efficient enough to keep the chains moving. The Razorbacks also have to be careful about loading up against the run considering quarterback Jerod Evanshas the weapons, starting with receiver Isaiah Ford, to make them pay. Finally, it's hard not to believe that Arkansas head coach Bret Bielema forgetting to put the Hokies on his final ballot for the coaches' poll won't provide them with a little extra motivation. Pick: Virginia Tech 35, Arkansas 27

Weidl: An underrated matchup that will come down to the wire. I give the advantage to Virginia, behind dual-threat Evans who will make enough plays with his legs for them to pull off the victory behind a crowd that will be tilted in the Hokies' favor playing in Charlotte. Pick: Virginia Tech 33, Arkansas 30

Valero Alamo Bowl: No. 12 Oklahoma State vs. No. 10 Colorado
(9 p.m., ESPN, Alamodome, San Antonio, Texas)

Muench: Oklahoma State quarterback Mason Rudolph is a sound decision-maker with above-average touch, and he's in complete control of the Cowboys' offense. However, Colorado's pass defense is one of the best in the country, and it made two of the best quarterbacks in college football (Washington State's Luke Falk and Washington's Jake Browning) look average late in the season. In addition, the hope is the extra time off will give Buffaloes quarterback Sefo Liufau, who sustained a lower body injury in the Pac 12 championship game, enough time to heal. Pick: Colorado 24, Oklahoma State 21

Weidl: Expect to see an inspired Colorado team that hasn't gone bowling since 2007 and wants to put a cap on a highly unexpected season. The Buffs get a win behind a strong defensive effort and a secondary that can match up with the Cowboys' perimeter. Pick: Colorado 31, Oklahoma State 28

Dec. 30



AutoZone Liberty Bowl: Georgia vs. TCU
(noon, ESPN, Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium, Memphis, Tennessee)

Muench: Bulldog running backs Nick Chubb and Sony Michel have the power, speed and quick feet to put up big numbers against a TCU run defense that stumbled over the last three games of the season. In addition, Georgia head coach Kirby Smart and his staff will have had more than a month to prepare freshman quarterback Jacob Eason who has the arm strength to develop into an elite starter. Finally, the Horned Frogs' instability at quarterback is a significant concern. Pick: Georgia 30, TCU 21

Weidl: The Dawgs lean on a healthy Chubb and Michel while generating a few turnovers from TCU QB Kenny Hill to pull off the victory. Pick: Georgia 20, TCU 14

Hyundai Sun Bowl: No. 18 Stanford vs. North Carolina
(2 p.m., CBS Sun Bowl, El Paso, Texas)

Muench: This matchup comes down to whether North Carolina quarterback Mitch Trubisky or Stanford running back Christian McCaffrey has the bigger game. Expect both to play well. Trubisky is one of the most accurate passers I've watched on tape this year, and he's got the quick feet to buy time in addition to the quickness to scramble for yards when he tucks and runs. McCaffrey has the vision as well as the burst to make the most of any seams, and he gets the nod over Trubisky against a Tar Heel defense that struggled to slow the run late in the season. Pick: Stanford 31, North Carolina 28

Weidl: McCaffrey puts a punctuation on a great career against a Tar Heels run defense that continues to struggle this season. Pick: Stanford 35, North Carolina 28

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl: Nebraska vs. No. 21 Tennessee
(3:30 p.m., ESPN, Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee)

Muench: The availability of Nebraska quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr, who could miss this game with a hamstring injury, or whether he's 100 percent if he does play, will obviously play a big role in the outcome. He's an inconsistent passer, but backup Ryker Fyfe isn't nearly as experienced or mobile. If he's healthy and plays well, look for Nebraska to get the win against a Volunteers team that surrendered more than 400 yards rushing in two of its last three games. At this point Nebraska is reportedly preparing as if Fyfe will get the start, so look for Tennessee quarterback Joshua Dobbs to continue his strong play and lead the Volunteers to the win. Pick: Tennessee 28, Nebraska 24

Weidl: Dobbs puts a cap on a great career in front of a heavy Vols crowd in Nashville. Pick: Tennessee 49, Nebraska 37

Nova Home Loans Arizona Bowl: South Alabama vs. Air Force
(5:30 p.m., Campus Insiders, Arizona Stadium, Tucson, Arizona)

Muench: A South Alabama defense that gives up an average of 212 rushing yards per game and 4.8 yards per carry doesn't match up well with an Air Force option attack that runs the ball more than any other team in the country and has four players who have rushed for over 600 yards this year. Also keep an eye on Falcon strong safety Weston Steelhammer. He is a playmaker with six picks, and Jaguars quarterback Dallas Davis has thrown more picks than touchdowns this year. Pick: Air Force 35, South Alabama 21

Weidl: Air Force wins comfortably by forcing a few turnovers from Davis and controlling the clock on the ground. Pick: Air Force 41, South Alabama 17

Capital One Orange Bowl: No. 6 Michigan vs. No. 11 Florida State
(8 p.m., ESPN, Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens, Florida)

Muench: Florida State running back Dalvin Cook's vision, balance and burst make him one of the best backs in the country, but Michigan's outstanding defense will make it tough for him to find room to work and frustrate quarterback Deondre Francois. The Seminoles were also tough against the run, so it could be another long day for Wolverines running back De'Veon Smith, who has averaged fewer than 3 yards per carry in two of his last three games. Expect a defensive battle. The Wolverines get the win because they win the turnovers and special teams -- a Florida State punt coverage unit that's one of the weakest in the country statistically would be wise to kick away from electric return man Jabrill Peppers. Pick: Michigan 21, Florida State 17

Weidl: After going through some growing pains early in the season, Florida State played extremely well down the stretch. The Seminoles will be real players in the CFB playoff hunt next year, but the Wolverines' defensive advantage in the trenches will be too much to overcome in this one. Pick: Michigan 27, Florida State 23

Dec. 31

Buffalo Wild Wings Citrus Bowl: No. 20 LSU vs. No. 13 Louisville
(11 a.m., ABC, Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Florida)

Muench: Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson is going to make plays. He's too talented to shut down for four quarters, but a Tiger defense led by safety Jamal Adams has the team speed to prevent him from taking over the game and pressure him into making the kind of mistakes that plagued him late in the season. Louisville has been stout against the run and is capable of slowing LSU's ground game of Derrius Guice or Leonard Fournette, who is day-to-day with an ankle injury. Don't expect as big a gap in the final score, but look for the Tigers to follow Houston's blueprint and get the win. Pick: LSU 24, Louisville 21

Weidl: Anything can happen when the Heisman Trophy winner steps on the field. However, look for the LSU defense up front to overwhelm a Cardinals offensive line that was exposed down the stretch. Pick: LSU 35, Louisville 27

TaxSlayer Bowl: Georgia Tech vs. Kentucky
(11 a.m., ESPN, EverBank Field, Jacksonville, Florida)

Muench: Both of these run-heavy offenses should have success moving the ball on the ground. Kentucky will do it with its two 1,000-yard rushers in running backs Stanley Williams and Benny Snell Jr, while Georgia Tech's option attack is led by quick quarterback Justin Thomas. Three different Yellow Jackets have rushed for over 500 yards, including Thomas. I'm taking the Ramblin' Wreck because Thomas is more experienced than Wildcats quarterback Stephen Johnson, and Thomas showed he can beat in SEC team in a bowl game, as he was named the Orange Bowl MVP following the 2014 season. Pick: Georgia Tech 34, Kentucky 30

Weidl: Both teams lean on the ground the game and should be able to find success. Look for an improved Wildcats defense to create a few turnovers to give them the edge in what could be the quickest game of the bowl season. Pick: Kentucky 33, Georgia Tech 28

Jan. 2

Outback Bowl: No. 17 Florida vs. Iowa
(1 p.m., ABC, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida)

Muench: An Iowa defense led by leading tackler inside linebacker Josey Jewelland disruptive defensive tackle Jaleel Johnson, who has 10 tackles for loss, has been tough against the run down the stretch (holding Michigan to 98 yards on 35 carries is a performance that stands out). Florida's talented secondary will shut down the Hawkeye passing attack, but injuries have taken their toll up front, and the Gators surrendered more than 200 yards rushing in each of their last three games. Look for talented Iowa running backs Akrum Wadley and LeShun Daniels Jr. to lead the Hawkeyes to the win. Pick: Iowa 21, Florida 17

Weidl: The Gators' defense will eventually overwhelm the lack of playmakers for the Hawkeyes and force a few turnovers to set them up with favorable field position to get the win in a game where points will be at a premium. Pick: Florida 17, Iowa 10

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic: No. 15 Western Michigan vs. No. 8 Wisconsin
(1 p.m., ESPN, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas)

Muench: Wisconsin wins the battle in the trenches on both sides of the ball to hand the Broncos their first loss of the year. Western Michigan quarterback Zach Terrell is coming off an outstanding season and Corey Davis is one of the best receivers in the country, but a Badgers' pass rush led by outside linebacker T.J. Watt will have enough success disrupting Terrell. The Badgers' offensive line headlined by left offensive tackle Ryan Ramczyk will have success creating seams for the backs, starting with Corey Clement. Pick: Wisconsin 31, Western Michigan 21

Weidl: We've seen this movie before and expect a much more inspired Broncos team behind Terrell and Davis, who will make enough plays to pull off the upset. Pick: Western Michigan 23, Wisconsin 21

Rose Bowl Game presented by Northwestern Mutual: No. 9 USC vs. No. 5 Penn State
(5 p.m., ESPN, Rose Bowl, Pasadena, California)

Muench: Penn State's offensive line made strides, yet the Nittany Lions still haven't done a great job of creating seams for one of the best backs in the country in Saquon Barkley, and quarterback Trace McSorley's mobility has masked vulnerabilities in the pass protection. The Trojans have given up some big plays in the passing game and big plays have played a big role in Penn State's success. However, look for USC to slow Barkely, pressure McSorley into making some mistakes with a pass rush that started to heat up late in the season and the secondary to make enough plays for the Trojans to get the win with Jim Thorpe Award winner Adoree' Jackson leading the way. Pick: USC 31, Penn State 28

Weidl: Look for a great quarterback duel between Sam Darnold and McSorley, but it's the USC defense that will make enough stops late to get the Trojans the win in an exciting game loaded with big plays. Pick: USC 38, Penn State 34

Allstate Sugar Bowl: No. 14 Auburn vs. No. 7 Oklahoma
(8:30 p.m., ESPN, Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans)

Muench: Auburn surrenders an average of just 15.6 yards per game thanks in large part to defensive end Carl Lawson and defensive tackle Montravius Adams. Lawson and Adams will give the Sooners problems, but Oklahoma's balanced offense gets the nod in this strength-on-strength matchup. Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon form one of the most talented backfields in the country, while the mobile Baker Mayfield is the most efficient passer in the country, and Dede Westbrook is one of the most dangerous receivers in the country. That's a lot of firepower, and the Sooners' ability to move the ball against the Tigers' talented defenses eases concern about their ability to slow Auburn's run game. Pick: Oklahoma 35, Auburn 30

Weidl: The time off will allow QB Sean White and the rest of the Auburn team to get healthy. The physicality of the Tigers, particularly on the defensive front, will keep an explosive Sooners offense in check long enough to get the victory. Pick: Auburn 34, Oklahoma 29

Dec. 31

College Football Playoff semifinal at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl
No. 4 Washington vs. No. 1 Alabama
(3 p.m., ESPN, Georgia Dome, Atlanta)

Muench: Alabama had better not overlook a well-coached Washington team with an explosive offense and a talented defense, or it's in real trouble. That said, it's hard to believe that head coach Nick Saban allows that to happen, and as long as they don't come out flat, the Tide will get the win for the same reason they win most games. They will shut down the run with their dominant defensive front led by Jonathan Allen and turn the Huskies into a relatively one-dimensional offense. The expected return of corner Marlon Humphrey, coupled with Alabama's ability to rattle quarterback Jake Browning with four pass-rushers, eases concerns about the Tide's ability to match up with the Huskies' talented receivers, starting with John Ross. Pick: Alabama 31, Washington 21

Weidl: The Washington defense will keep this one close early on. However, the Tide's dominance on the defensive front will eventually allow them to find room on the ground against a worn-out Huskies defense to pull away in the second half. Pick: Alabama 34, Washington 13

College Football Playoff semifinal at the PlayStation Fiesta Bowl

No. 3 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Clemson
(7 p.m., ESPN, University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Arizona)

Muench: It's tough to pick against Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson who has made a number of big plays in critical situations this year and shined against Alabama in last year's national championship game. However, look for Ohio State's defense to lead the Buckeyes to the win. The Tigers haven't been as effective running the ball this year as they were last year, as the production of running back Wayne Gallman has dipped and Watson has yet to break the 100-yard rushing mark -- something he had done four times at this point last year. That's unlikely to change against a Buckeye run defense that surrenders an average of 3.3 yards per carry. Of course, Watson is capable of beating most defenses with his arm and the weapons he has at his disposal. However, he's thrown multiple interceptions in four games this year, and he faces an outstanding Ohio State pass defense that has picked off 19 passes, returning seven for touchdowns. Pick: Ohio State 31, Clemson 28

Weidl: This is by far the hardest game to pick. Expect this game to come down to ball security. If Clemson doesn't turn the ball over it will win. However, the Buckeyes are third in the FBS in turnover margin, and it's their defense behind their speed and playmaking ability that will make the difference in a close battle that comes down to the wire. Pick: Ohio State 27, Clemson 24

Jan. 9

College Football Playoff National Championship
No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 3 Ohio State
(8 p.m., ESPN, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida)

Muench: The last times these two teams met in the playoff, former Buckeye and current Dallas Cowboy running back Zeke Elliott gashed what had been a stout Alabama defense for 230 yards and two touchdowns on the way to an Ohio State 42-35 win. Look for the Tide to do a much better job containing running backs Mike Weber and Curtis Samuel this time. One of the reasons that happens is Ohio State isn't nearly as much of a threat to stretch the field with quarterback J.T. Barrett and this receiving corps as they were last season. Pick: Alabama 28, Ohio State 24

Weidl: Meyer vs. Saban Round 5. This will be a close and low-scoring contest, but the Tide get the victory behind a historical defense that will overwhelm the Buckeyes up front and make life rough on Barrett. Saban gets his fifth national championship in eight years and sixth overall. Pick: Alabama 23, Ohio State 17

 

SD State is now +5 at most books which puts them in the all 3 systems agree category.

 

Terrible weather for the first bowl game. Very high winds. Line quickly moving up this morning to New Mexico -9 and the total down to 57.5 from its opening number at 64.

 

Tempted to buy the over 54.5 in this new mexico game. Started out at 64. Not sure the wind is worth a 10 point swing. New Mexico's strength is the run so it shouldn't affect them much. Only worried about UTSA scoring enough.

 

I'm always intrigued how all these difference %s are reported. For comparison here's what sportsinsights has in realtime:

Out of 26,060 tickets, New Mexico is getting 60% of the tickets and 60% of the money. The over is getting 75% of the tickets and 75% of the money.
Out of 29,301 tickets, Houston is getting 62% of the tickets and 66% of the money. The over is getting 79% of the tickets and 57% of the money.
Out of 9,923 tickets, Arkansas St. is getting 52% of the tickets and 67% of the money. The under is getting 55% of the tickets and 76% of the money.
Out of 10,996 tickets, App. St. is getting 53% of the tickets and 55% of the money. The over is getting 80% of the tickets and 93% of the money.
Out of 8,639 tickets, ULL is getting 53% of the tickets and 52% of the money. The over is getting 83% of the tickets and 74% of the money.