a quick look at the forecasted pattern next week looks a bit more typical. Less amplified pattern helps keep moisture around. Back in April we had a quick succession of potent systems, but they were very amplified and scoured moisture out. Couldn't recover before next one arrived.
No need to worry man. Tulsa is protected by a Native American curse of sorts that prevents us from getting any *major 'naders. You good, bro.
James spann relies wayy too much on the wpc. Said half an inch for bham all wk today. Got shit. And even his 4pm update said half an inch later tonight. Radar aint shit in MS and certainly not for bham Yayy no rain for 3+ wks during rainy season yayy Frauudster
Swim is a crazy person in real life, right? He's going to murder a neighborhood kid for knocking over his rain gauge.
Yes. Montgomery wont even get a drop. And east al as well. Good job spann. Good job wpc you dumbasses. Half inch with more elsewhere? Nice job.
That has absolutely nothing to do with the truth. It's a prediction based on models. There is no 'truth'. They can't tell your the future, something minute could change and nuke the model. They look at conditions, and predict what could happen based on the model output.
Meh. Spann specifically over shoots it. Wpc shows dark green (.25-.5) and hes like yeah everyones gonna get at least a half inch to an inch. As opposed to 'hey we are in a foot deficit for the last year we need this shit and some might not get anything but cross your fingers' Go to alabamawx.com click the 4 o clock update. 'rain totals half inch and up'. And like 80% of the state has had .05 or less. Just lazy
I'm not a met, I can't tell you what they see that makes them think that. Saying they are lying is why people die during severe weather outbreaks and don't take heed of the forecast. They tell you what they think they see based on the models they get. Local conditions differ. Small things change and nuke the prediction. Forecasts are forecasts. Unfortunately, we can't sample atmospheric conditions at real time.
Yeah i really dont think 3-4 hrs changed all that much from the 4pm update looking at the map. That was friday night laziness. I didnt say anything about his severe coverage. Think he over compensates that tbh
Save your breath tig. The whole world has been out to get swim since this fine board came into existence. Just sit back and laugh with the rest of us.
We've interacted a number of times swimmy. But honestly I just don't give two fucks about reading about some (nonexistent) rain in Birmingham in a thread about severe weather.
To get back on track, there was someone in here recently that popped up saying they were learning to / enjoyed following the models for severe weather. Anyone remember who that was
Just drove through Canton on the way to a cycling rally, will try to see if I can take some good pics on my way home this afternoon.
I suck at life, missed my turn and by the time I realized it had gone to far so I took a different route home. Impressive damage though for sure.
I think these are newer/different videos than the ones I shared from YouTube. I'll definitely check them out ASAP http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/spcousom/
Dodge City area looks like the spot to be tomorrow. South central and eastern Nebraska looks like a hail threat.
Enhanced pushed up into E NE where those storms went through last night. Is this due to an outflow boundary they put in? I thought the concern earlier this week was the capping further north, must not be an issue anymore? SPC doesn't seem to mention it.
With the storms last night and the sun shining it's pretty humid here in Lincoln. Could get wild later.
And they just went moderate and increased Tornado probability for the tx panhandle and w Oklahoma. Also reintroduced the 5% Tornado to my area in Nebraska and bumped the enhanced a little further west. Interesting.
That's a great area for strong tornadoes. A whole lot of nothing in that part of the states. Hoping to see a monster spinning out in a field later tonight
Mesoscale Discussion 0730 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CDT Tue May 16 2017 Areas affected...eastern tx/ok panhandle...western ok Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 161819Z - 161915Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will develop across the eastern TX/OK Panhandles over the next few hours. Tornadoes are expected with this activity, along with very large hail and severe wind gusts. Tornado watch will be issued by mid afternoon. DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery suggests large-scale forcing for ascent is spreading across the southern Rockies, per marked increase in showers and thunderstorms over western/central NM. Downstream, dry line has mixed east and is becoming well defined over the TX Panhandle/South Plains region with substantial boundary-layer cu immediately east of the dry line. Towering cu, and a few attempts at glaciation, are noted over Hutchinson/Hansford/Ochiltree Counties. There is increasing confidence supercells will develop across the eastern TX/OK Panhandles by mid afternoon with subsequent movement expected into western portions of OK/southwest KS into the evening. Environmental conditions appear favorable for tornadoes and very large hail as steep lapse rates are evident on 12z soundings and surface dew points have now risen into the mid 60s. Environmental conditions appear favorable for a few strong tornadoes. PDS incoming?
Twitter seems to be buzzing with the possibility. Last few times people have been talking shit about the forecasts, at least the folks I follow seem to be hyped.