CFB Week 5

First glance side leans

I like Troy +20 will definitely take it if I can get it +21
UGA- 7
Vandy +10
Alabama -28
Cal +15.5
Ok State -11
Iowa +3.5

 

They're in a really tough spot for sure. Plus weird shit in football and in general happens in Lubbock. Passing on this game. Would love to take Ok State on the rebound, esp at -8, but I do think TTU is somewhat improved but I can see this going either way.

 

I decided to quit being a bitch and look at that the play objectively, so I took Ok State -9 as well.

 

Best CFB Week 5 bets

Spoiler

Best CFB Week 5 bets
Clemson's defense will be a tough challenge for the Hokies this weekend. Mike Comer/Getty Images
10:39 AM ET

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Our experts are back with their Week 5 college football picks. Every Thursday, Phil Steele, "Stanford Steve" Coughlin and Chris Fallica will pick two common games and as many wild-card games as they choose. It's all here in one file for your perusing pleasure.

Here are the best bets for Week 5 of the college football season.

ATS record:

Phil Steele: 3-6 in Week 4 (11-21 season)
"Stanford Steve" Coughlin: 3-2 in Week 4 (11-7-1 season)
Chris Fallica: 5-2 in Week 4 (16-14 season)

Note: Lines from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Wednesday morning.

Common games


No. 5 USC Trojans (-3.5) at No. 16 Washington State Cougars (Friday)

Steele: USC has taken on my No. 4 toughest schedule so far, facing Western Michigan, Stanford, Texas and California. Washington State is undefeated, but it has only seen an FCS foe and my No. 48-, No. 113- and No. 122-ranked pass efficiency defenses. Now the Cougars must handle my No. 4-rated pass efficiency defense. The Trojans have 11 sacks, while Washington State has allowed 14. Although the Cougars average 44 points per game, they had only 21 offensive points in regulation versus Boise State. USC has won its past five trips to Pullman by an average of 33 points per game, and the projected temperature is 76 degrees, so the Trojans will enjoy this trip.


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ATS pick: USC
Score: USC 34, Washington State 24




CFB betting look for Week 5: Can Iowa move on from heartbreak?
In Week 5's college football look-ahead, Will Harris examines the psyche of both Iowa and Michigan State heading into this week's matchup, while also taking deeper looks at surprising Wake Forest and USF.

• 
  How Vegas ranks top 25 CFB teams
  Which college football teams are strongest in the eyes of Vegas experts? Phil Steele provides his updated ratings for the top 25 teams in Week 5 of the college football season.

Coughlin: There might not be a better atmosphere this weekend in all of college football. I've played in Pullman and could not have more respect for the Washington State fan base. This matchup intrigues me because each offense has the skill to control the game. USC has a lot more balance, seeing as how the Trojans average 306 yards in the air and 185 on the ground. The Cougs, however, are led by quarterback Luke Falk and are averaging more than 430 yards through the air and 71 on the ground. While much has been made of the Trojans' health and how banged up they are, I still feel like they have enough athleticism to disrupt this Mike Leach offense. I'll say the road favorite covers.

ATS pick: USC
Score: USC 38, Washington State 27

Fallica: It is a great time to get a discounted line on the Trojans, and I think they will play a game closer to the one they played against Stanford earlier this year. This game has been pointed to as an upset trap, so expect Southern California to be ready, despite a myriad of injuries, and win comfortably.

ATS pick: USC
Score: USC 38, Washington State 24



No. 2 Clemson Tigers (-7.5) at No. 12 Virginia Tech Hokies

Steele: Clemson beat Virginia Tech by only seven points in the ACC title game last season, but the Tigers did lead 35-14 late in the third quarter. Virginia Tech is putting up 40 points per game this season and gaining 507 yards per game on offense, but it has taken on four defenses that combine to rank No. 117 overall. The Hokies now face the best defense in the country, a unit that is holding foes to 202 yards per game below their season average. Clemson is battle-tested and has taken on my No. 8 toughest schedule. Last week was a flat spot for Clemson, allowing the Tigers to get fully charged for this one and win by double digits.

ATS pick: Clemson
Score: Clemson 27, Virginia Tech 13

Coughlin: I'm not sure there have been two teams that have surprised me more than the Hokies and Tigers this season. Both teams average more than 500 yards of offense and give up less than 11 points per game. Plenty of people -- including me -- have said the SEC is Bama and everyone else, but I've started to hear the same about the ACC: It's Clemson and then everyone else. I don't agree with that, as I think the Hokies are a legit threat. They are led by quarterback Josh Jackson, who has thrown for more than 1,100 yards with 11 touchdowns and just one interception. When you add in the fact they saw Clemson late last season in the ACC title game, I think the Hokies have a shot to pull off the upset ... or at least cover the spread. We'll take the home 'dog here.

ATS pick: Virginia Tech
Score: Virginia Tech 28, Clemson 27

Fallica: I'm not a fan of the side, but I do think there are reasons to expect a high-scoring game. Clemson has some injuries in the secondary, and the emergence of Travis Etienne as a game-breaking threat gives the Tigers a chance to hit on a lot of long scoring plays. These two teams played a 42-35 game in last year's conference title game, and the Hokies' offense hasn't showed any slowing down, despite the loss of so many impact players. While the Clemson defense will get stops, the tempo of Virginia Tech is bound to result in some scores. I think the line is about right, but think 51.5 is a tad low.

Pick: Over 51.5 points
Score: Clemson 35, Virginia Tech 28



No. 24 Mississippi State Bulldogs at No. 13 Auburn Tigers (-9)

Steele: Last season's game was in Starkville, and Auburn led 35-0 at the half en route to a commanding win. Mississippi State has the No. 10 defense in the country statistically, but take away the 87-yard loss versus Louisiana Tech and the Bulldogs are allowing 4.8 yards per carry against FBS teams. That is what they allowed last season, and Auburn's backfield is fully healthy. Quarterback Jarrett Stidham went to Death Valley three weeks ago and took on the best defense in the country, and he has thrown for 291 yards per game and completed 70 percent of his passes since. Auburn's defense is holding foes to 240 yards per game below their season average, which is the best mark in the country. Finally, Auburn is at home coming off two effortless games, while Mississippi State is playing its third marquee game in a row and traveling for a second straight week.

ATS pick: Auburn
Score: Auburn 31, Mississippi State 13

Fallica: FPI has this at about a 4.5-point line, so I'll take the points expecting a bounce-back effort from what I still think is a decent Mississippi State squad that just found itself in a bad spot last week. Auburn won't find points nearly as easy to come by as it did last week versus a dreadful Missouri team. Since 2014, Dan Mullen's team has been a 'dog of six or more points 10 times, and MSU has covered eight of the games and won five outright. If you extend that stretch to the final two instances in 2013, you get 10 ATS wins in 12 games. There's no love lost between staffs, and I'll gladly take the 'dog here to keep it close, if not win outright.

ATS pick: Mississippi State
Score: Auburn 26, Mississippi State 24

Friday games


Nebraska Cornhuskers (-6.5) at Illinois Fighting Illini

Fallica: We kind of figured Illinois would struggle offensively this year, but Nebraska has been nearly as bad, ranking 98th in expected points (Illinois is 108th). The Illini did a good job at home defensively against Ball State and a good Western Kentucky offense. No quarterback has thrown more interceptions than Tanner Lee's nine, and only three Power 5 quarterbacks have a QBR worse than Lee (one of them is Illinois' Chayce Crouch, who may not get the start). Still, with the direction things appear headed in Lincoln, I wouldn't be racing to lay points here against a team that should play better than it did in a blowout loss to USF in its last game. Keep in mind that Nebraska has a few injuries and a short turnaround versus a team which was idle.

ATS pick: Illinois
Score: Nebraska 27, Illinois 23

Saturday games


Arizona State Sun Devils at Stanford Cardinal (-17)

Steele: Stanford is known for great defense, and Arizona State is known for giving up a ton of yards and points. Last season, Stanford held opponents to 73 yards per game below their season average, and Arizona State allowed foes 79 yards per game more than what they came in averaging. Stanford allowed 20 points per game, and Arizona State was at the 40 mark. The surprising stat, though? In 2017, Stanford is allowing opponents 21 yards more than they average, and Arizona State is holding foes to 32 yards below their season average -- and both have played tough schedules. Both lost to San Diego State, with Stanford allowing 358 yards and Arizona State just 353. Arizona State might be allowing 4.7 yards per carry, but Stanford is giving up 4.9 per tote. I think Arizona State keeps this closer than expected.

ATS pick: Arizona State
Score: Stanford 38, Arizona State 28



Northern Illinois Huskies at No. 19 San Diego State Aztecs (-11)

Steele: A surprising stat for me is Northern Illinois ranking third in the country in yards per play allowed at 3.6, the same as Clemson. Clemson was coming off two huge wins last week and took a breather against Boston College, as the game was tied at seven in the fourth quarter. This is the Aztecs' spot for a breather now, as they just upset two Pac-12 teams and won a huge rain-delayed Mountain West opener against the Air Force option, with a potent Mountain West offense on deck in UNLV. Northern Illinois already won in Lincoln and is fresh off a bye, and the Huskies will be playing their "A" game.

ATS pick: Northern Illinois
Score: San Diego State 20, Northern Illinois 16



Marshall Thundering Herd at Cincinnati Bearcats(-4)

Steele: These two last met on the field in 2008. Both saw long bowl streaks end last season but made my most improved list this year, meaning I think they'll make it back to a bowl. Cincinnati is coming off a tough road trip and playing a fifth straight week with a bye on deck. Marshall is fresh off a bye. These teams are close on offense, but Marshall has the edge on defense and special teams. The schools are only 149 miles apart, and Cincinnati has a first-year head coach while Marshall coach Doc Holliday is 38-18 over the past five years. Marshall did put up 451 yards on a tough North Carolina State defense, and wide receiver Tyre Brady is averaging 19.6 yards per reception. Marshall has delivered a pair of winners for me in this column, so let's ride the Herd again.

ATS pick: Marshall
Score: Marshall 24, Cincinnati 23



Akron Zips (-2) at Bowling Green Falcons

Steele: I am aware that Akron has lost four straight trips here by 27 points per game, but Akron did go 3-1 on the road in its only bowl year under head coach Terry Bowden, and I expect the Zips to contend for one this season. Bowling Green's home crowd does not figure to be intimidating, and Akron led a much tougher Troy team on the road last week late in the fourth quarter. Ohio State transfer running back Warren Ball takes on a Bowling Green rush defense that is allowing 244 yards per game and 5.3 yards per carry. Bowling Green is allowing 194 yards per game above what their opponents normally average. The Falcons did switch quarterbacks last week, going from James Morgan (43 percent) to Jarret Doege (62 percent), but still put up only 284 yards against Middle Tennessee.

ATS pick: Akron
Score: Akron 31, Bowling Green 23



San José State SpartansSan José State at UNLV Rebels (-13.5)

Steele: UNLV was a 45-point favorite over FCS team Howard in their opener, but lost outright. All people know about UNLV is that it lost to Howard, so they think the Rebels must be a poor team. Naturally, the benefit is that you get great line value on them until people actually catch on. You know the old adage: Buy low, sell high. Since that loss, UNLV was an 8-point 'dog at Idaho and won by 28, and a 41-point 'dog at Ohio State and lost by only 33. The Rebels should be a larger favorite than the 13 points they are favored by. San Jose State is giving up 565 yards per game and will struggle against an underrated and potent offense.

ATS pick: UNLV
Score: UNLV 48, San Jose State 27



No. 15 Oklahoma State Cowboys (-9.5) at Texas Tech Red Raiders

Coughlin: I know it's hard to forget how the Pokes looked last week when all eyes were on them and they got taken to the cleaners by the Horned Frogs at home, but let's think about this for a second. If Mike Gundy is as good of a coach as I think he is, he has the trust of his team and, most importantly, his players' undivided attention. The Cowboys still can accomplish all of their preseason goals. The winning team in this matchup has scored at least 45 points in eight of the past 10 contests. That dates back to 2007, when Oklahoma State won 49-45. While the Red Raiders come in averaging around 26 points allowed per game, they haven't seen anything close to what the Cowboys have on the offensive side of the ball. I'll take the road favorite here.

ATS pick: Oklahoma State
Score: Oklahoma State 48, Texas Tech 35



Northwestern Wildcats at No. 10 Wisconsin Badgers (-15.5)

Coughlin: All right, Purple Cats from Evanston ... this is our last date if you let me down. I'll leave it at that. Both teams are coming off a bye week, and it's pretty evident the Badgers will be the better team when they line up at Camp Randall. Last time we saw the Badgers, they destroyed BYU. Their offense looks legit behind quarterback Alex Hornibrook, as they are averaging more than 500 yards and 43 points per game. But I just like the familiarity that Pat Fitzgerald's team has with Wisconsin. It's a division opponent, and the Wildcats have won two of the past three. I'll take the road 'dog here.

ATS pick: Northwestern
Score: Wisconsin 31, Northwestern 20



Colorado Buffaloes at UCLA Bruins (-7)

Coughlin: I still am trying to figure out how the Bruins gave up 58 points to Stanford, which is about as one-dimensional as a team can be. The Bruins' head coach is supposed to be a defensive guy. UCLA ranks dead last in the nation among 129 FBS teams in rushing defense after getting torched for 405 yards on the ground during that 58-34 loss to Stanford, and it is giving up a ridiculous 307.5 rushing yards per contest. I just trust the Colorado coaching staff more here.

ATS pick: Colorado
Score: Colorado 38, UCLA 35



South Carolina Gamecocks at Texas A&M Aggies(-9)

Fallica: Texas A&M is in a tricky spot here. The Aggies just won an emotional overtime game over rival Arkansas and have Alabama in College Station next week. After a promising start, South Carolina lost to Kentucky and lost star Deebo Samuel to injury in the process. After struggling with Louisiana Tech last week, this could be a good spot to back the Gamecocks as a big 'dog, as Texas A&M is in the midst of a 2-10-1 stretch against the number and is 1-8-1 ATS with three outright losses in its past 10 games as at least a touchdown favorite. Since Johnny Manziel left, the Aggies are 2-7 as an SEC favorite against teams not named Arkansas. FPI sees about six points of value here, too.

ATS pick: South Carolina
Score: Texas A&M 34, South Carolina 31



Miami (OH) RedHawks at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-21)

Fallica: Chuck Martin was a longtime assistant to Brian Kelly, so I don't think Kelly will pour it on this week. The Irish are off back-to-back road wins over Power 5 teams and have another one next week at North Carolina, so this isn't a game that the Irish will likely be fully amped up for emotionally. Under Kelly, Notre Dame is 1-4 ATS and 2-3 straight up following the Michigan State game, including a loss to Duke last year as a 21.5-point favorite. As a 20-point dog under Martin, Miami is 7-2 ATS and 13-5 overall as an underdog. With bigger games ahead, this looks like a potential "rest" game for the Irish.

ATS pick: Miami (OH)
Score: Notre Dame 38, Miami (OH) 21



Air Force Falcons at New Mexico Lobos (PK)

Fallica: New Mexico has covered in its past five versus Air Force, winning the past two years outright as a double-digit 'dog. The Lobos match up well with the Falcons, and with Air Force having a trip to Navy next on the slate, it gives further incentive to back the Lobos, as winning the CIC Trophy is the top priority for the academies.

ATS pick: New Mexico
Score: New Mexico 37, Air Force 31



Vanderbilt Commodores at Florida Gators (-9.5)

Fallica: I've been on the right side of all three Florida games this season, and I'll try to keep that streak intact this week. The Gators have had a very trying first month of the season. Hurricane Irma aside, they've dealt with suspensions, got blown out by Michigan and then mounted improbable finishes in games against Tennessee and Kentucky. I don't know how much is left in the tank this week after that stretch, and they have a meeting with LSU next week. It's hard to give nearly double digits to an offense that has trouble scoring points. Florida has won 21 games under Jim McElwain, and nine have been by one score. Also, in its past 24 games as a home favorite, Florida is 7-15-2 ATS. The Gators have had better teams the past two years against a worse Vanderbilt team and managed to beat the Commodores 13-6 as 14-point favorites and 9-7 as a 20.5-point favorite. Vandy will be out to show that it is a lot closer to the team which started 3-0 than the one which was blown out last week by Alabama.

ATS pick: Vanderbilt
Score: Vanderbilt 20, Florida 17

 

Texas -4
Ok State -9
Vandy +10
USC -3
UGA -7
Troy +21

YTD 21-16-1

 

Phil Steele might need to consider reworking his algorithm.

 

Auburn/Mississippi State line is at 8 if the side gets to 7.5 I buying it down to 7, or I will just wait till it drops to 7.

 

added aTm -7, Ole Miss +28, and Auburn -7 (-130). Looking to add some. TTs today as well.