Interesting, thanks. So with that storm in the screenshot earlier, in the chance it were in a remote place and that was the only radar that was picking up the storm, we're just kind of screwed on seeing any velocity in that instance?
Day 4 outlook from SPC for this Friday. I haven't looked at anything lately, but the models had been hinting at the 16-19th as a bit more active
28 years ago today was the 3/13/1990 outbreak that produced the Hesston/Goessel, KS F5 and the Red Cloud/Lawrence, NE F4 that had a 124 mile long path. https://www.weather.gov/gid/48406
Yes I don’t want to have another plant trip due to a tornado taking out some power lines right before an outage.
Too busy with snow up here to look much. Just taking a quick look, Monday (day 4) looks like it could have some big potential. Today's my actual Friday, so I'll try to look more later over some beers
Nice. Saw y’all are getting hammered by these storm systems up there. We had a bit of thunder late last night.
Yup. We’re getting the rainy end of the system, supposed to get around an inch or so. Hopefully getting rain this early is a sign of a good spring.
Still haven't looked too much. Here's nws Birmingham's afd regarding Monday's threat Spoiler NAM/GFS/ECMWF have taken steps toward a more ominous setup for Monday afternoon and evening. There appears to be less emphasis on a potentially disruptive convective episode Sunday night into Monday morning. This is probably due to a stronger elevated mixed layer spreading in across the region Sunday night which would allow the warm sector to move inland more rapidly. Disagreement remains regarding the finer but crucial details for the evolution of the surface to 850mb response to the upper-level trough. This will make or break the potential for tornadoes. Currently the solutions range from a tornado outbreak, shown by the NAM, to a lower tornado threat on the GFS/ECMWF. However, confidence continues to increase in the potential for large to very large hail due to steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear. Our updated products will reflect an increase in the severe weather threat, particularly for large hail, with an acknowledgement of an upward trending but still uncertain tornado potential [\spoiler]
Already got my schedule set to stay in the office Monday. Been a long time since a good severe weather day to watch. Luckily fed computers don’t block stuff like that anymore
The onion is blocked at work here lol. No idea Monday is my wife's birthday and it's my Sunday. So I'll likely not be watching too closely
ESPN was unblocked from the DOI network for some reason. I took that as permission to spend time building my brackets
Let's take a tour of the SPC risk categories over the next few days Today, hail and wind are the main threats with tornados possible in Texas Spoiler Sunday Spoiler Monday, with significant severe probs outlined. SPCs outlook reads similar to the Birmingham afd Spoiler Spoiler: SPC Monday The timing of a shortwave trough will play a critical role in severe potential on Monday across TN, MS, AL and GA. At this time, the NAM appears to be too slow and more amplified with this wave over MO compared to the ECMWF and GFS which show it over central KY or Middle TN at 00Z Tuesday. As a result, severe potential looks quite different amongst the models. For example, the latest NAM shows an extremely volatile setup over middle TN and northern AL clearly favoring strong tornadoes. However, the most likely solution appears to be a blend of the ECMWF and GFS, both showing a faster and lower-amplitude shortwave, as well as less low-level shear with relatively veered 850 mb flow. The most probable scenario appears to be for isolated, potentially significant severe storms from Middle TN into northern AL and GA, dependent on how much destabilization occurs especially in TN. Models also indicate substantial storm coverage across much of southern GA into northern FL, possibly in the form of an MCS, with mainly wind damage potential given unidirectional flow. Given the potential for significant severe storms, a categorical upgrade is possible in later outlooks once predictability increases and the centroid of severe coverage is better established.
Here's the wave that will produce our storms on Monday (digging into southern California from the Pacific).
Monday's threat still looks like it could be a potentially bigger event. The models are in fairly good agreement with a possibly significant tornadic environment. Also, looks like a cap plus morning storms getting out of the way quickly should help for the afternoon too
I do not have a good feeling about tomorrow. Anyone in AL and south central TN needs to make sure they have a plan in place now. Where will you go, do you have good shoes, where will your kids go. I wouldn't fuck around. Hopefully this thing won't pan out or will hit very rural areas. Or it busts completely.
Checking in from Birmingham. We are long overdue for a major outbreak and the air today has an unsettled feel to it that I haven't noticed in a long time Tomorrow is probably going to suck
Got too much family in that area to get excited for this event. Hope it busts. What are you seeing on this to make it look like a high end event?
Update from SPC mentions possibility of strong tornadoes with any supercells that become dominant. Gotta bet we see an upgrade to moderate tomorrow with that language
Well, most of the models have honed in on this without a lot of big change for days. Plus, the Euro now shows a bigger event. Shear is very good, instability is good, the orientation of the overall wind shear favors more isolated supercells. As always, the devil is in the mesoscale details tomorrow, but it looks potentially big. Even just one significant tornado can change the perception of the day. See El Reno 31 may 2013 or the 20 may Moore tornadoes. Hell, those storms changed the entire perception of that year. Wasn't all that active beyond those days
The best thing one can do to prepare is make a plan. Know where to get good weather info be it tv mets, nws, or whatever. Just know what you need to do now so that if the shit hits the fan, you can just react, not think Some good advice in here to plan: https://www.ready.gov/tornadoes Way better to have a plan now and not need it, than wing it later. /Preaching
BHM here. My mom's having knee replacement surgery tomorrow. I'm hoping I can make it back home before the shit hits the fan.
If I were to target anywhere, I'd probably hang out in Decatur, AL and see how the day evolves. Caveat - I don't think I'd ever chase in the southeast.
I would expect one or both of the satellite mesoscale sectors over the area tomorrow. Would give satellite updates every minute
Checking in from Chatt Seems like we are right on the enhanced to slight line. Is that correct or am I an idiot? I moved here from the mid-Atlantic and never had to worry about these things. Although my second spring here was the April out break of 2011 and I've never been more scared in my life.
Storm is partially headed right at Dallas and the serious shit seems to be heading around Dallas to the south.
That RGB product is so amazing. I haven't seen anywhere offer it on one of the free sites. It's a shame.