A quick look at the models and such would seem to indicate that the threat may expand a bit westward into MS. Some of the hi-res models indicate the potential for storms to form in NE MS before moving into northern AL/southern TN.
Looks like we will be out of the worst stuff but a lot of family and friends are going to be right in the shit
There is still some uncertainty with how tomorrow evolves. The MCS (mesoscale convective system) in SE TX was always a possibility/forecast. It has looked like that it would not limit the northward transport of moisture and instability tomorrow into the risk area, but it is not 100% certain. This is where it's best to watch the obs, radar, satellite, etc without solely focusing on the models. Your trusted tv mets + NWS/SPC will be doing just that.
Moral of the story: if you're hope that this will bust for your or friends/family safety, you're on team MCS. Just go and fuck up that moisture return and leave as much shitty clouds + cold pool in your wake.
The upstream (west of the threat area) soundings via 00Z (7pm cdt) weather balloons show very steep lapse rates - temperature drop with height. Steep lapse rates are a key ingredient for severe weather, especially large hail. Even if the tornado threat doesn't materialize, there will likely be >2" hail tomorrow.
Now that is a beast of a supercell in TX earlier tonight. You can almost get a sense of the rotation just through this picture. Think barber pole
I didn't plan this, but here's the radar exactly 4 hours later. That MCS is dying (now in eastern LA). Not really worried at all about it or it's effect on tomorrow. Based upon the recent hi-res models + obs, I continue to be worried. Edit - Forgot to mention this, but that fine arching line from southern OK into northern TX is our front/dryline that will affect the risk area tomorrow. Spann answered the question in the chat I linked above, this does not look like 4/27/2011, because that's a generational outbreak. But if you get one of these things coming down your road, it's your 4/27. I will not be surprised to see an upgrade to Moderate. It looks likely that this could be a small-scale regional outbreak. Let's all just hope this busts
I should probably go to bed. The new Day 1 outlook is out. They stayed with enhanced, but did pull it back west a bit. Overall risk Spoiler: tornado Spoiler: hail
Still an enhanced over largely the same area. Discussion does mention possible upgrade pending mesoscale trends today. Mentions >2" hail and tornados as primary hazards
Does this big blob of shit do anything to stabilize the atmosphere? Looks like it’s drifitng towards the enhanced region
Read the outlook again from the spc and I assume that’s exactly what they expect it to do. Head northeast and avoid the enhanced zone for the most part
It's possible, but those storms were expected. It's really a matter of how quickly the low clouds give way allowing the atmosphere to fully realize it's potential instability
Think the tornado threat is settling over north central Alabama. Southern Tennessee could be a little messy.
The dreaded PDS. Every single one out here in the last 5 years has busted. Hoping the same for today if it comes.
Going to be streaming abc Birmingham all afternoon I guess. Looks like shit is coming together in a bad way for folks in Alabama.
Man, I hope this isn’t as bad as it looks. Local guys are saying 4-6 time frame for Huntsville metro area. I selfishly hope they follow the same track they normally do.
Can’t wait for the tweets going off about how they cut into “the voice” to warn people of large wedge Nader.
Those are the same people who say the tornado came "out of nowhere" when they're interviewed on local tv with their house gone behind them
Make sure you have spanns twitter open for all the dumb rednecks complaining about him being on air all afternoon and evening. His snarky replies are awesome if you can catch them before they get deleted
Anyone got a good link to the best station to watch later? And to those in the danger zone today. Stay safe.
Hope so. I always tell myself that the mountains push everything back towards the County. No idea if there’s anything to that but it makes me feel better.
We’re right up next to a mountain that sits directly in the direction the storms always come from. I tell my kids that the mountain will protect us....probably bullshit but they like it.
We always used to tell ourselves Rainbow Mountain pushed the twisters north into Monrovia. Sure enough, no matter what color the western sky was, the storms went north.
There's a ton of videos from the 4/27/11 Super Outbreak of tornadoes going over mountains in Alabama.