Official Investing Thread

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by Joe Louis, Jul 12, 2010.

  1. Arliden

    Arliden Well-Known Member
    Donor

    Chinese president Xi is set to have an economic speech tonight. The thought is he might set some new reforms and open up China a bit, but given the current climate who knows what he will say.
     
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  2. WillySaliba

    WillySaliba Well-Known Member
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    Philadelphia 76'ersArsenal

    Ehh they still manipulate currency so ultimately it’s just a volatility marker.
     
  3. lechnerd

    lechnerd They say Monaco is a sunny place for shady people
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    Texas AandM Aggies alt

    I’m excited about Merck.

    I own calls with a 62.5 strike price and 1/19 expiration.

    MRK has languished for a while now but I think they are poised to break out because of Keytruda. This is a monster cancer drug that is testing very well.

    Interestingly MRK is trading like a small biotech in the sense that as Keytruda goes they go. They have a number of other products as you would expect for $154 billion company. But none of that seems to matter. All everyone is focused on is Keytruda. And I’m ok with that because this drug is a superstar.

    It has a number of indications but the biggest by far is lung cancer (2nd biggest cancer killer, ~150k+ every year). It is approved for pts with > 50% PD-L1 (a marker found on tumors). In spite of this limited indication it’s still generating >$1 billion/yr in revenue.

    Earlier in the week they announced a “significant” increase in overall survival in a study treating pts with >1% PD-L1. This now potentially opens up Keytruda to the vast majority of lung cancer pts not just those with >50% expression of the tumor marker.

    We don’t know from MRK’s press release what “significant” means but I would highly doubt they use that word unless it truly is significant. A cancer conference this weekend will be the site of the data release. The other great item to note is the study is measuring overall survival, the gold standard for evaluating a medicine treating cancer. Finally and last but not least, this phase 3 study is testing Keytruda as monotherapy, meaning no need for chemo. One pill of Keytruda every 3 weeks, that’s it. What a HUGE advance in medical treatment.

    The FDA under new leadership has been speedier regarding new drug approvals and indications and I think if this weekend’s data is as good as advertised MRK could get approval relatively soon.

    The best part of Keytruda however is the future. Not many drugs can treat multiple conditions or cancers but this is a rare exception. It is already approved for a handful of different cancers AND there are currently over 500 different FDA trials in place many involving other companies that are testing their drug with Keytruda (trying to hitch their wagon to a bright star). Further highlighting its keystone-like importance earlier in the week a company named Incyte announced the failure of a trial involving their drug paired with Keytruda vs Keytruda alone. The study showed no change and Incyte got killed. Simply failing to align with Keytruda has huge ramifications.

    Keytruda’s biggest competition is Opdivo made by Bristol Myers who has had a rough week since the latest Keytruda news was announced. Opdivo is also pulling in $1 billion per year but while Keytruda is growing 30% qtr over qtr, Opdivo is mostly flat.

    This weekend there is a cancer conference where MRK will present their data explaining just how significant the Keytruda results are. I expect the stock to continue to climb in the short and long term barring any adverse Trump macro events.
     
    #8753 lechnerd, Apr 12, 2018
    Last edited: Apr 12, 2018
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  4. Vinegar Strokes

    Vinegar Strokes Fire Izzo
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    Michigan State SpartansDetroit PistonsDetroit LionsDetroit Red WingsDetroit Tigers

    Which website is best for Roth IRA? Vanguard or Fidelity? And can I just make a one time deposit of $5500.00 each year?
     
  5. Detlef Schrempf

    Detlef Schrempf Back to Back to Back AAU National Champs
    Donor

    Not a fan of fidelity, so Vanguard and yes.
     
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  6. Vinegar Strokes

    Vinegar Strokes Fire Izzo
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    Michigan State SpartansDetroit PistonsDetroit LionsDetroit Red WingsDetroit Tigers

    Thanks and from what I read there are little to no fees if you use the vanguard mutual fund options? Thinking of lowering my 401k contributions, and maxing out a Roth IRA every year.
     
  7. Detlef Schrempf

    Detlef Schrempf Back to Back to Back AAU National Champs
    Donor

    Are you hitting your match on your 401k? What’s your income level?
     
  8. Frankie Carbone

    Frankie Carbone eh che se dice
    Florida State SeminolesNew York YankeesNew York KnicksOrlando CityLazioUnited States Men's National Soccer Team

    I would max what they match before allocating any money to the Roth
     
  9. Vinegar Strokes

    Vinegar Strokes Fire Izzo
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    Michigan State SpartansDetroit PistonsDetroit LionsDetroit Red WingsDetroit Tigers

    Yes, I’ll still contribute enough to hit the employer match in the 401k. And I’m below the $120k limit
     
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  10. Joystick Izzy

    Joystick Izzy Well-Known Member
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    Sounds like a solid plan, especially if you have shitty 401k options with high ER’s
     
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  11. Detlef Schrempf

    Detlef Schrempf Back to Back to Back AAU National Champs
    Donor

    Who’s your 401k provider Vinegar Strokes ?
     
  12. The Banks

    The Banks TMB's Alaskan
    Donor TMB OG
    Oregon DucksGreen Bay PackersDetroit Red WingsBayern Munich

    I like to pay $500/month January-November then basically have $500 allocated to Christmas shopping in December.
     
  13. Vinegar Strokes

    Vinegar Strokes Fire Izzo
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    Michigan State SpartansDetroit PistonsDetroit LionsDetroit Red WingsDetroit Tigers

    Principal. Kind of indifferent about it.

    Yep, will probably do something similar after I make the initial investment in year 1.
     
  14. joe-

    joe- yesterday is a hard word for me
    Donor TMB OG
    Kansas City RoyalsDSA

    why don’t you guys like fidelity for your IRAs
     
  15. joe-

    joe- yesterday is a hard word for me
    Donor TMB OG
    Kansas City RoyalsDSA

    also - do any of you use the Robinhood app for trading?
     
  16. Frankie Carbone

    Frankie Carbone eh che se dice
    Florida State SeminolesNew York YankeesNew York KnicksOrlando CityLazioUnited States Men's National Soccer Team

    I have fidelity for my SEP. I’m not sure of the preferential opinion against it
     
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  17. Detlef Schrempf

    Detlef Schrempf Back to Back to Back AAU National Champs
    Donor

    Had a buddy who was a wholesaler for them for a long time, he was not a fan of theirs and he left on good terms.

    Also don’t like what they do with their TDF’s see the article I posted above.
     
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  18. Frankie Carbone

    Frankie Carbone eh che se dice
    Florida State SeminolesNew York YankeesNew York KnicksOrlando CityLazioUnited States Men's National Soccer Team

    They were more aggressive than most, granted the market was booming so I can see some of the idea behind it. I have my portfolio under my own discretion so it works for me
     
  19. Detlef Schrempf

    Detlef Schrempf Back to Back to Back AAU National Champs
    Donor

    They’re fine if you’re choosing your stuff, the reality for many 401k participants is they don’t and they just roll with a TDF.

    Market booming and getting more aggressive rather than sticking to fundamentals is how you get buried in another dot com bubble or 2008 scenario though and depending on your age when that happens, the last thing you can afford is for your target date fund to get colaught with its pants down 3-4 years from your retirement.
     
  20. Frankie Carbone

    Frankie Carbone eh che se dice
    Florida State SeminolesNew York YankeesNew York KnicksOrlando CityLazioUnited States Men's National Soccer Team

    No, I agree. The exposure could have been a recipe for disaster but they were able to make quite a bit more for their clients while the market showed no signs of slowing down. The dip in February was a good wake up call for them
     
  21. Houndster

    Houndster Well-Known Member
    Donor TMB OG

    I use it and like it a lot

    A brokerage account is last in order of investment priority though
     
  22. tmbrules

    tmbrules Make America Great Again!
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    Good article regarding Merk and Keytruda

    lechnerd

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-merck-is-betting-on-one-big-cancer-drug-2018-04-16
     
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  23. lechnerd

    lechnerd They say Monaco is a sunny place for shady people
    Donor
    Texas AandM Aggies alt

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  24. lechnerd

    lechnerd They say Monaco is a sunny place for shady people
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    Texas AandM Aggies alt

    To say their data at the cancer conference over the weekend was a success would be a massive understatement. Bristol Myers getting punished as a result.


    [​IMG]
     
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  25. allothersnsused

    allothersnsused Wow that’s crazy
    Donor
    Virginia CavaliersAtlanta BravesAtlanta HawksWashington Football TeamChelsea

    What is the best method of trading ADRs? I hold almost everything in index funds but I like to pick a few stocks here and there with "play money". I usually just use RobinHood but after reading this article https://www.bloomberg.com/news/feat...maker-betting-big-on-american-sports-gambling I wanted to try and get in on William Hill before the potential supreme court ruling.

    Looks like there are two different ADRs - WIMHF and WIMHY. What the hell is the difference? Are there any horse socks? Is anybody listening to me?
     
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  26. WillySaliba

    WillySaliba Well-Known Member
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    Philadelphia 76'ersArsenal

    Yes, sort of. Read that book the Joystick guy pushes so he gets some commission.
     
  27. lechnerd

    lechnerd They say Monaco is a sunny place for shady people
    Donor
    Texas AandM Aggies alt

    I’m running hot.

    I’ve owned SHPG for a while and it was languishing but now it is the darling of the entire stock market.



    It’s not done running either.

    Just a little back story real quick. Shire is the company that created adderall and vyvanse. Relatively recently they decided to become a rare disease company for a variety of reasons and shockingly sell their neuro division which basically was the sole reason for the company’s creation and success. They way over extended and bought Baxalta for $32 billion. Stock dropped from a high of ~$230 down to ~$120. Fast forward to two weeks ago and Japanese drugmaker shocks everyone and says they are interested in buying Shire. Per U.K. rules they have 30 days to shit or get off the pot. Today they release a statement saying they are offering about $200/share for Shire. Stock had been ramping up since they announced their interest and there was a massive short squeeze. All good right? Well no more than an hour after Takeda releases their offer, Shire puts out a release saying they’ve rejected three Takeda offers over the last two weeks including the $200/share offer because the offers undervalued their company. Both have moved the negotiations to the court of public opinion by releasing their statements. Now FF another hour this morning and Reuters is reporting that Allergan is now in talks with Shire to buy them. Hello bidding war.

    Unfortunately I’m close to flat in the stock but I don’t think it’s done running up. Not even close.
     
  28. lechnerd

    lechnerd They say Monaco is a sunny place for shady people
    Donor
    Texas AandM Aggies alt

    Day was going a little too well. Allergan has backed out.
     
  29. Struggler

    Struggler Well-Known Member
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    Ohio State BuckeyesCincinnati RedsCincinnati Bengals

    ONCE is over $81 at close today.
    MGEN gets bought tomorrow.
     
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  30. Cheshire Bridge

    Cheshire Bridge 2017 & 2019 National Champions - Clemson Tigers
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    Clemson TigersAtlanta BravesTiger WoodsCollege Football Playoff

    Can't you just buy William hill stock?
     
  31. allothersnsused

    allothersnsused Wow that’s crazy
    Donor
    Virginia CavaliersAtlanta BravesAtlanta HawksWashington Football TeamChelsea

    They're not traded in the US - they're only traded on the LSE. It's apparently very difficult to buy foreign stock directly, as best I can tell. That's what I was asking - if there's an easier way.
     
  32. Cheshire Bridge

    Cheshire Bridge 2017 & 2019 National Champions - Clemson Tigers
    Donor
    Clemson TigersAtlanta BravesTiger WoodsCollege Football Playoff

    Try Robin hood. I had some Greek shares on there before they merged with tradeking...
     
  33. lechnerd

    lechnerd They say Monaco is a sunny place for shady people
    Donor
    Texas AandM Aggies alt

    Merck got a double upgrade to Goldman’s Conviction buy list this morning. It’s running.

    [​IMG]
     
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  34. lechnerd

    lechnerd They say Monaco is a sunny place for shady people
    Donor
    Texas AandM Aggies alt

    Deal looks like its going to get done. Takeda was very desperate, they made 5 offers without a single counter by Shire.



    Hopefully I get paid off later today.
     
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  35. tmbrules

    tmbrules Make America Great Again!
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    Chipotle (CMG) - up 20% or $67 on the day

    Wow
     
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  36. Beachy Toast

    Beachy Toast He wants you too, Malachi.
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  37. tmbrules

    tmbrules Make America Great Again!
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    Just saw where Southwest Airlines is down 10% since their accident a week or two ago and down 18% YTD.

    Always thought Southwest was a well run airline. Buffet has previously talked about investing in airlines. Might be a good time to scoop up some stock on the bad news.

    thoughts?
     
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  38. Beachy Toast

    Beachy Toast He wants you too, Malachi.
    Donor
    Chicago White SoxChicago BearsChicago BlackhawksKansas State WildcatsMontreal Impact

    $SNAP getting crushed today.
     
  39. Corky Bucek

    Corky Bucek Placeholder for a Custom Title
    Staff Donor TMB OG
    Auburn TigersLos Angeles LakersLos Angeles RamsAnaheim DucksManchester UnitedLos Angeles Angels of Anaheim

    Big :shocker: here
     
  40. ned's head

    ned's head Well-Known Member
    Donor

    This may be a weird question. Are there any good resources on planning for a future income reduction? Not necessarily an early retirement scenario, but my wife and I may look to change professions completely in the next couple of years and would like to make the most of our current income situation.

    We're debt free and in the market, but I'd be curious to know if there are any books out there on preparing for this.
     
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  41. Beachy Toast

    Beachy Toast He wants you too, Malachi.
    Donor
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  42. WillySaliba

    WillySaliba Well-Known Member
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    Philadelphia 76'ersArsenal

    I don't know about a book. My guess would just be how you are allocated. You'd just want more cash until you ramp up your income. I am not entirely sure if you plan on joining a cult, making soap in your basement or opening a BB. Regardless I am sure there is a lot you can do while you are still employed to hopefully offset a lot of your overhead up front. Again, that's me not knowing what you are doing but it's easy to set money aside for at least those expenses up front to mitigate. More or less, create a solid budget now and track your spending as best as possible.
     
  43. lechnerd

    lechnerd They say Monaco is a sunny place for shady people
    Donor
    Texas AandM Aggies alt

    Going to throw another rec out for Merck.

    The pharmaceuticals had been stuck in a sell the rumor buy the news type of rut ever since pharma bro wrecked the sector. The whole lot became low-hanging fruit for politicians to attack and run against and is one of the few areas where both sides of the aisle are in agreement.

    Watching the IBB and XBI struggle as a result and there was no lifeline.

    Fast forward to this week and word about Trump’s plan to lower drug prices begins to leak out. Normally it’s buy the rumor sell the news but when it’s planned negative news (in this case govt. regulation on drug pricing) the saying is reversed; sell the rumor, buy the news. Today was the news with the President’s announcement. Combine that with the lack of teeth today had and the whole industry was set for liftoff. After the PC in the rose garden the HSS Secretary moves indoors and takes questions. There he mentions “years” regarding a timeline on implementation of these new protocols.

    So not only do they lack substance but they will be incredibly delayed.

    The only thing that could derail the IBB and XBI today was allowing Medicare to negotiate drug prices but they didn’t go there. As a result I think this sector easily will fly up 10% in the near term. The Sword of Damocles has finally been removed from the drug companies for the foreseeable future.

    Merck is best in breed as outlined earlier and I’m excited about where it’s headed. In June the next big cancer conference (ASCO June 1-5) will occur and Merck has been teasing some more big Keytruda data. MRK is going to fly.
     
    #8793 lechnerd, May 12, 2018
    Last edited: May 12, 2018
  44. hudson

    hudson Oh, you know...stuff.
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    Favorite stock right now is teladoc. Bought it at 28.70 and currently up to 47.85.
     
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  45. Frankie Carbone

    Frankie Carbone eh che se dice
    Florida State SeminolesNew York YankeesNew York KnicksOrlando CityLazioUnited States Men's National Soccer Team

    Thoughts on DBX?
     
  46. Jimmy the Saint

    Jimmy the Saint The future is a benevolent black hole
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    Penn State Nittany LionsGreen Bay PackersChelseaHartford WhalersPhoenix Rising

    Mad at myself for not getting some more Apple when it dropped towards $160.
     
  47. lechnerd

    lechnerd They say Monaco is a sunny place for shady people
    Donor
    Texas AandM Aggies alt

    I like it.

    Stock is at 52. Go back 12 months, tons of support in this area.

    Only concern I have is the price of oil rising because I don't think any of the airlines have been hedging.
     
  48. Detlef Schrempf

    Detlef Schrempf Back to Back to Back AAU National Champs
    Donor

    I think oil in general is a good place to be, I really liked marathon a couple of weeks ago, and still like it as it’s moved past it’s 52 week high.
     
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  49. Rabid

    Rabid Fan of: DQ Treats
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    Minnesota Golden Gophers

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  50. Detlef Schrempf

    Detlef Schrempf Back to Back to Back AAU National Champs
    Donor

    Consumer debt is terrifying right now especially the non securitized and auto sectors. High yield isn’t worth shit right now, and even investment grade debt funds have exposure here that no one wants to talk about.

    Disclaimer: I used to manage a team of analysts in the auto finance field, and I would run as far away as possible from it.
     
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