Tornado warned storm near Monroe, LA is in an area of poor radar coverage, but ULM has a radar http://wxdata.geos.ulm.edu/ULMradar/index.html
More than likely will fizzle out then over atkins blow up and go on towards clinton in that little nado alley.
Dusting from the looks of it. Winds certainly showed up. NWS is projecting 2-4” today but I’ll believe that when I see it at this point.
I can hear some ice in the trees, definitely a coating of sleet on the ground. Maybe we have an inch in places sheltered from the wind. NWS is sticking to their guns so far for another 2-4". I guess if that does happen it'll be close to the 5" estimate. At least now I know which local meteorologist to trust. One guy said he was concerned about the dry air depressing snow totals during every single one of his discussions about the storm. His totals yesterday evening were ~5-6" but he added the caveat that he thought they were going to be a bit lower in actuality. Nailed it.
I just can't fathom something like this, it's like trying to think about how there could be nothing before the big bang
It's interesting cause we got the snow we forecast, but not the winds. I disagree with how far west the blizzard warning was, but I wasn't here to give my input. The way the nws is going, I think it'll get harder for offices to quickly adjust to changing winter weather conditions. Hopefully I'm wrong
Is this related to the staffing changes? Aren't they reducing the numbers of forecasters on duty or something of that nature? What makes it so difficult to really get a handle on the precip amounts for these winter systems? Are they just so prolonged that any little change has a visible impact on the outcomes? Their snow forecasts this year have been all over the place, generally much higher than what actually happens. Last year the NWS here was very good when it came to predicting the spring thunderstorms. If they said to watch your area, something happened along the lines of what they were forecasting. The winter has been all over the place.
This is probably longer than most ppl care for... I don't think it's staffing related, although there are some offices that are quite understaffed. The downsizing thing is a whole can of worms that'll likely be something to monitor over the next few years...but who knows Winter systems are quite difficult for many reasons 1. shift the track of the system 25 miles and you can drastically change your snowfall totals, esp on banded snow events where small areas get 8-12". A 25 mile variation in track can be the difference between a foot and a dusting. 2. temperatures. Often you'll have warm air aloft that can prevent/delay the transition from rain/freezing rain to all snow, which can significantly lower snowfall. Likewise, a well-known warm layer aloft can cool faster than anticipated, leading to higher snowfall. Etc...many different scenarios 3. Dry air can filter in and just fuck up your forecast with the quickness 4. topography...Black Hills for example: easterly/northeasterly winds on the northern hills can lead to significant snowfall via upslope with subsequent westerly flow in the central and southern hills --> descending, warming air --> snow reduced. 5. overall lift not being well forecast + other things i'm probably forgetting. This guy wrote a paper in 1977 describing "meteorological cancer" = relying too heavily on models and I'm pretty sure he was a wizard. All 3 of these points are huge issues today, both NWS and private. Point 2 is kinda where I was going with my previous post https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0477(1977)058<1036:OFUAG>2.0.CO;2 tldr; things are hard and we're making it harder on ourselves.
Also, there is a definite sentiment throughout the entire weather community that a perfect forecast that is not received or understood by ppl is worthless. However, an okay forecast that is well received and acted upon is preferred, hence such an emphasis on communication lately. And even that communication is not very good at this point; we're not good at highlighting and explaining uncertainty. I have seen some ppl get by just by relying on model guidance and spending more time trying to communicate the forecast. While noble, most mets are not well-trained in effective communication + you can only lead a horse to water so many times...
That day looks interesting. I feel like the panhandle always delivers. Euro and Canadian are slower with the system - lines up with peak daytime heating whereas the GFS is faster with western OK as the prime area. GFS ensemble is closer to the euro, however Either way, this far out there is pretty good agreement with decent moisture return
Is it easy to find out how many day7 areas are highlighted and pan out vs bust? They must have some high confidence to go that far out
I was watching the weather coverage last night and they had the same tornado warning going for a good 35-45 minutes because there could have been a tornado on the ground. Is that at all what you’re talking about or am I completely missing it? Seems like last night the coverage was more precautionary than anything. My county was put under a tornado watch and then a severe warning and we barely got anything.
The data is out there, not sure if anyone has done the work. I tend to perk up when they do anything day 5 and beyond
I suppose, although tv is a different animal and I don't feel entirely qualified to talk about that. My only inside knowledge is if the okc tv market. I do know most tv mets will stay on air as long as there is a warning, esp tornado As to your last point, that's another big problem. Often, most ppl under a watch don't get anything. Getting hit by severe weather, let alone a tornado is a very low probability event. I think we don't do a great job of conveying that info to ppl. I'm probably rambling at this point
Tim Jones at ksnb4. At least with the winter stuff he’s done pretty well. A lot better explanations. The NTV guy sucked. Not sure how the severe coverage is, left for the summer before it really got going up here.
6 years ago today, a big plains outbreak http://www.ustornadoes.com/2018/04/...nation-of-the-april-14-2012-tornado-outbreak/
I actually like it here hah. My kind of slow, small town that is just big enough to have a real grocery store but not big enough to feel like a city.