Color Code: Spread/Total Columns: Red = underdog covered, under hit, Green = favorite covered, over hit O/U and System Columns: Red = loss, Green = win No color = push
It is setup just like years past. There are two total systems, the off o/u and def o/u. The systems project what the total should be based on the offenses and defenses. The average is, of course, the average of the two which is generally near the total for the game. There is one system pulled from FoxSheets called SF Power. My systems are the system A and B columns. The main difference between the two is that System B factors in strength of schedule. The values in the columns represent what each system thinks the spread should be. In the spread and total column, the number in parentheses is the opening number. If there are no parentheses then obviously it hasn't moved or has moved back to the opening number. All lines are from Pinnacle. If anyone has any more questions, let me know and I'll be happy to help.
Past Six Years: System A is 134-95 ATS (58.5%) When A&B agree, the side has gone 94-61 ATS (60.6%) When all 3 agree, the side has gone 51-30 ATS (63.0%)
Held off on going too high on App St due to lame duck interim coach who's already been told he's not gonna get the gig next year
Heard something on sportstalk radio the other day that only one team won a bowl game last year with an interim coach and that was FSU who was heavily favored over southern miss. Something to keep in mind
FSUsem so, what do you do all year away from the board? Assuming you don't have a lurking handle. You post picks thruought the ear anywhere?
That's what was missing from seeing the score then seeing the recommendation for them at +7.5. thanks!!
I don’t think the sheet is dependent on the games that happened. Usually it’s one sheet for the full bowl season. Sem posts his picks when he makes them, and keeps track of the record in the thread.
I assume the diff columns are showing what your system’s differential from the posted line is? Not the actual line your system is generating?
Its actually the latter. Its generating what it thinks the line should be. Ststem b factors in strengths of schedule, which is why you typically see some line regression in the power 5 vs group of 6 games with system B.
San Diego State's QB is fucking awful. Why didn't someone tell me this before I picked them in my bowl pick em?
Very interesting line movement. Vegas only moved the spread 1.5 point to Toledo -7 but moved the total an entire 12 points down to 56. Strange. Essentially vegas is saying with the FIU QB the final score will be Toledo 37, FIU 31. Without the QB somehow the final score will be 31-24, with a 6 pt drop for Toledos team total.
I did read the weather is expected to be crazy with like 40-50mph winds and people have been hammering the under. I got it at 59 late last night.