Better odds: super outbreak it'll be hyped to Or Normal severe weather system with some winds and maybe a few marginal tornados
My guess is somewhere in between. I'm big on time of the year/location where the system is located being a good predictor of how big the outbreak is. Late February in the Arkansas/Dixie alley area has plenty of history with big time outbreaks. If this system was in the southern plains or midwest i'd predict a bust. The opposite being true if this was the same location in late may. I'd assume it would be a bust, that's where the traditional outbreaks occur in the southern plains. TLDR; If you go by history vs. meteorology, this could be a decent system saturday
I started looking at this last night at work. Will continue tonight . Better than the shit we actually have going on
I hate it when people with broadcast journalism degrees are allowed to relay weather to folks across the country. That's what you see at TWC. Give me people with meterology degrees relaying the weather news. I know people give Reed Timmer shit about hyping systems but dude has a PHD from OU, he knows what he's talking about.
I'm absolutely not predicting saturday to live up to this system, i'm just saying early season storm in the Arkansas/Dixie Alley area has a history. I mean shit, look at the area outlined by Reed Timmer and the convective for 2/5/08. Exact same area. Fun Fact: I saw my first tornado during this outbreak and have been obsessed ever since. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Super_Tuesday_tornado_outbreak
Will be reading more about this soon. I'm trying really hard not to get on the hype train on this. Just starting to look at stuff at work... But it's looking like something.
Just from an overall synoptic/large scale look, this Saturday looks rather similar to the super Tuesday outbreak
Yep, senior year of college saw an EF-3 out my back door. It was an elephant trunk that hit a manufacturing plant. Couldn’t believe what I was watching. I was so ignorant to storms I didn’t even know it was supposed to rain that day. Let alone being in the bullseye of a high risk outbreak.
A somewhat technical review of the event from an SPC perspective with an emphasis on the uncertainty around the event. Pertinent for many events https://www.spc.noaa.gov/publications/evans/sup-tues.pdf
Nice SPC overview. Page auto refreshes every 5 minutes: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/public/swodyoverview.html
I'm excited for a two day stretch where temperatures are above 0. Storm season can't come soon enough. Can't wait to hear thunder again
That period of time when a storm is approaching, you can see the huge anvil, it starts to get dark and the wind picks up with the thunder in the distance
I did not, but my we printed one to hang at the office and other for me at home. Well, it's actually an aluminum print. That's the upper air building. Dome has the dish that tracks the radiosonde/balloon after launch.
If you jinx me while I'm at work this weekend motherfucker I will come up there and just drag my nuts across your face on the bball court. If a tornado or winds take out the mabelvale line again i'm going to be fucking pissed.
Slight risk today...one storm to really watch now west of Hattiesburg as it moves into a favorable environment
Spc discussion mentions the possibility for some strong tornadoes in the southern are of the 15% box for Saturday
Haven't had the chance to look at much since the other night. Good chance of a squall line with potential for more discrete supercells too. big wind threat in addition to tornadoes
I should clarify, there will be severe weather for sure. Biggest issues I see with respect to isolated supercells is the lack of any appreciable cap, and when coupled with a strong cold front/large scale lift, will likely yield lots of storms that could destructively interact with one another. Certainly will have a tornado threat that accompanies the squall line. Big question is will discrete storms get going ahead of the line without a bazillion storms going up at once
Have adjusted northern severe probabilities to reflect the possibility that buoyancy, and certainly surface-based instability, may be retarded at higher latitudes.
We just got above 0 for more than a day at a time for the first time since December so thats been neat.
Storms are also going to be moving at 60mph. Even if you can see it from your chasing boat, it'll be gone so quickly
Some of the short-term/high resolution/CAMs (convection allowing models) show a more robust warm sector with a more favorable plume of instability up into Kentucky. Will be interesting to see if that verifies. A quick look at the vertical profiles (soundings) from these models gives the impression for a bigger severe threat. Especially south into northern LA
VORTEX-SE is operating for this storm. They plus a bunch of nws offices began 6 hourly balloon launches across the region. Should be a big help. https://blog.nssl.noaa.gov/vortexse/ NWS offices are white, vortex SE are green and yellow