In the US, don't dealers buy the cars from the maker? So they are technically delivered? Then the Dealers own them while they sit on their lot? Wonder if the EU has regulations Tesla couldn't get around while selling cars there. Could be some commons sense reason IDK, but probably Elon trying to defraud everyone again. That Elon
It might be lower for them but in general Q2 & Q3 are strong for sales volume https://www.statista.com/statistics/671496/quarterly-vehicle-sales-united-states/
Bought some 3/20/20 215 calls in early June, sold them on the 5th. Would've liked to have sold them on the 3rd but work and forgetting the market closed early pre 4th cost me.
No, its a different cost structure. These were trading at 36.70 per share, but you have to buy a 100 shares in each contract so 1 contract was $3,670. Bought 7 and sold at 52.05, could've done better but shit got in the way like I said. You are betting its over $215 on march 20th (the reality is if you held till March 20th you'd need it to be around $250 due to time decay). Easier to show via a chart below is a March 20 2020 call at 245 with current prices. Every box shows % return.
No, 215 is the strike price meaning he needs the stock to be over 215 on 3/20/20 for them to have value. By buying them in early June he bought them when they were below $215 or what is called "out of the money" so they were priced at about $35 an option. Then since the price has risen over 215 significantly they're "in the money" and they're trading at about $52 an option right now. If he had held them he could exercise them and would have the right to buy 100 shares of the stock on 3/20/20 for $215 a share and then if the price was higher than that he could immediately turn around and sell it for a profit.
Go big or go home. Options trading is way more fun than just stock trading, also considerably more heartbreaking.
Also its not really understood on here but the basic napkin math on Tesla is this: Example: 25k S/X with a $25,000 average margin= 625M 75k 3 with a $10,000 average margin= 750M Gross profit from autos: 1.375 B Teslas costs per quarter are roughly 1.5B each quarter or 6 B a year Opex (R&D+SG&A) = 1.1B a quarter Service 150 M Interest 150 M Income tax etc. 50 M with Q2 production numbers: 17.5k S/X at 25,000 avg margin 77.5k 3 at 10,000 avg margin GP from autos is like 1.2B They wont pull a profit. Now you'll say well how did they pull a profit in Q3 and Q4? Thats because their ASP on the 3 and therefore the margins were significantly higher in Q3 and Q4 when they only sold LR versions to North America.
So going forward heres the story: -Teslas fixed costs will have to stay relatively flat around 6B to 6.5B. -Generate cash from operations and get to 2020 where they add new models like the Y, Semi, Truck, etc. -Can they improve margins and keep the average sales price above 50k while introducing the SR+ and abroad.
Normally I wouldn't but Elon's "leaked emails" were showing their cards. Plus if you know where to look you can kind of keep a pulse on deliveries.
He's saying they are going to stop making cars. That comes across as a desperate attempt to push cars now. There's zero chance they stop making cars. https://electrek.co/2019/07/08/tesla-will-stop-selling-cars-full-self-driving-elon-musk/ Do consumers have limited time left to buy a Tesla car, since prices would have to go up severalfold to balance supply & demand once you solve FSD? — Disruption Research (@DisruptResearch) July 8, 2019 And Musk answered, short and sweet, in one word: Yes — Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 8, 2019
Is the gist of the plan that in the future car ownership will be dead or near dead? Everyone just renting time as needed? I could see that happening in 20+ years
Yea, basically Elon’s thought is Tesla owners would rent out their cars at all times and Tesla itself would have its own fleet.
I could only see that in large cities. I drive 20 miles one way to get to work and pass 2 stop lights and 1 grocery store on the way. Too much land outside of the cities to not always have a car available.
Yup, I know people in Atlanta that use Uber exclusively b/c it is cheaper than owning a car. That's basically the principal of Zip car too. I don't know how fast we'll get there. I think the reasonable approach will be FSD will be available and "buying into" the Tesla Car Share network will be expensive. Then you can have best of both worlds
Right. You live in a rural area. Your kid falls and busts their head open and needs to get to the hospital. Are you going to wait 30 minutes for a car to show up? Fuck no.
When I say big city, I'm talking the heart of NYC, LA, and Chicago. A city like Tampa or Jax isn't big enough to have a robo taxi sitting at the end of your block when you walk outside.
You have sprawl issues in new South cities but I think there is enough density in certain areas for it to work well in Tampa, Orlando, Miami, ATL
Yea the very central downtown areas it would work. But man you're cutting off the majority of the country if people outside of those areas can't buy your car.
I mean we are discussing something that MAY show up a decade from now. Maybe Tesla is the first to solve FSD, therefore just offers subscription services and their business model is completely different. Maybe that has a huge margin and beats the hell out of making cars and so they abandon that. Someone else can fill the selling cars to rural places void it doesn't have to be whoever solves FSD.
looking out my office window in houston i can see approximately 2,500 cars. all of these people will be in rideshare robotaxis in 15 years? not likely.
If that happens the urban sprawl will be insane If you want to read an account of the sprawl that occurred when cars were introduced read the magnificent ambersons Won the Pulitzer in 1910s and is great
Elon believes or says lots of things. I can see a realm where they stop selling cars, but its not worth arguing about because a lot of technological advances would need to happen first for this to happen.
Let's be honest, Elon could say he's going to have day trips to the moon that cost $20 and say "Well it could happen..."
We could (meaning we could argue in circles all day). Ones reusable rockets and solving Fusion. The other is a camera perception equation. I just think if Tesla is the first to get FSD I see a path where they don’t have to sell cars. They become what Uber/Lyft want to be.
They can make money from the Uber side in metro areas and still make money by selling cars to people in other areas. They aren't just going to turn away people from buying their car.
Why would you sell a car that could then compete against you. Why wouldn’t you keep that car to make money for you. One nets you 10k the other can net you 200k.
This is something that will be a segment and not force everyone to use. I know people in ATL that do this now. I know ppl that are bikes/transit only, no cars. He isn't going to take away people's cars