Past Seven Years: System A went 148-118 since 2012 (55.6%) When A&B agree, the side went 100-76 ATS since 2012 (56.8%) When all 3 agree, the side went 56-36 ATS since 2012 (60.9%)
Sorry for the delay this year, but I made some tweaks to The Sheet. It resulted in a slight increase in System A since 2012 to 58.2% and a larger increase in System B to 54.3%. System A still is purely statistically based, now focusing on more advanced metrics. System B is also a much more complex form of schedule strength. System A and B are entirely my own. The SF Power system is a line from FoxSheets that I've found significant in the past. The values in each column for each system represent what that system thinks the line should be. So System A thinks Buffalo should be favored by 11.9 points. Since the actual line is Buffalo -6.5, System A believes there's 5.4 points of value on Buffalo. None of these systems take into account intangibles like coaching changes, players sitting out, injuries, travel advantages, weather, etc. Make sure to always keep these in mind before just following The Sheet blindly. In the spread and total column, the number in parentheses is the opening number. If there are no parentheses then obviously it hasn't moved or has moved back to the opening number. All lines are consensus lines from SportsInsights. If anyone has any more questions, let me know and I'll be happy to help.
Couple notes on the data: -System A loves Ohio St and Clemson, others arent really close. Unfortunate they arent playing in a final. -Not as scared of MAC teams as I thought it would be
Just a heads up for FAU game tomorrow. https://www.espn.com/college-footba...nds-three-starters-cheribundi-boca-raton-bowl
Never thought I'd start a bowl season by betting 3 straight MAC teams Central Michigan's defense should be in the backfield all afternoon. Normally I'd play the moneyline on this small of a dog but points may be at a premium so I'll take the FG+. Don't hate a ML play though.
Sheet suggests maybe this should be a bigger play but Liberty hasn't played anyone, including losing to Rutgers. A little hesitant putting more units on them. Liberty should be able to move the ball through the air at will as long as the weather doesn't get too shitty.
Staying away from the Boca Raton bowl due to FAU missing over 2400 scrimmage yards, 15 TDs, and possible more due to suspensions/illness/sitting out.
I'll be on the -105 moneyline. Really like the way FIU matches up, especially in the rain. Love this Sheet play.
Staying away from the Las Vegas bowl. I lean Boise, especially with Washington's LT and TE sitting out for the draft.
This minor System A Sheet play on App State goes against a couple of bowl season rules with popular favorites and big spreads, but UAB is just....not good. Wish I got it last night at 16.5 but I think this line will get bigger throughout the afternoon.
That means all three systems (A, B, SF) favor one side of the line. Not necessarily the team that's in bold, but whichever way the systems are leaning. So System A has SD St -0.4. This doesn't mean play SDSt but rather SD St should only be favored by that much so its saying there's value on Central Mich at +4. The other two systems also favor Central Mich.
The Off O/U number is the O/U predicted based on pure offensive numbers and Def O/U works the same way. The Avg O/U is just the average of the two. Haven't found much statistical significance other than when the Avg O/U is off by 4+.
Don't blame anyone for jumping on the -125/-130 ml instead of the points. Speaking of points, I'd lean to the over as well. On paper it doesn't look like BYU will need to punt.