FSUsem's 2019 Bowl Season Thread -- Starring: The Sheet Vol. 2

Discussion in 'Gambling Board' started by FSUsem, Dec 19, 2019.

  1. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Hate when people claim a lost bet was the right side....but.....

    Good god what an atrocious set of refs and what an atrocious call on 3rd and 2 to play action roll out when youve torched them for 220+ on the ground already....
     
  2. GovNole

    GovNole Well-Known Member

    Yeah...you have to run the ball there.
     
  3. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Staying off the Independence Bowl. Miami should kill them on paper. La Tech should kill them based on motivation. -6.5 is an extremely cheap price for Miami considering all the blue chip talent you're getting. +6.5 is generous for a Group of 5 team playing essentially at home against a Power 5 team running on fumes. No idea which Miami team is going to show up. Not gonna bother with guessing.
     
  4. KJROD20

    KJROD20 the ends will justify the means.
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    I'm considering the overs in both games (I'm seeing both at 49.5 on DK) and maybe Pitt -12, but leaning no or only a partial unit on that.
     
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  5. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    **Eastern Michigan +13
     
    #55 FSUsem, Dec 26, 2019
    Last edited: Dec 27, 2019
  6. All_Luck

    All_Luck OK. Cool Husk em!
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    Love your work. BOL during this bowl season!
     
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  7. KJROD20

    KJROD20 the ends will justify the means.
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    Didn't end up taking Pitt but that 1st game over went real well. :blech:
     
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  8. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    you too!
     
  9. skiedfrillet

    skiedfrillet It's not a lie if you believe it.
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    I snagged under 20.5 midway through the 3rd and was sweating bullets that last Pitt drive after LA Tech didn’t knee it 3 times
     
  10. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    ***Temple/UNC Over 53.5
     
    #60 FSUsem, Dec 27, 2019
    Last edited: Dec 27, 2019
  11. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    That shot up quickly this morning. Seeing 54s and 55s now. I'd still play it at that number.
     
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  12. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    ***Wake Forest +4
     
    #62 FSUsem, Dec 27, 2019
    Last edited: Dec 27, 2019
  13. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    not to hijack but just reminding all of us tryin to get rich off this sheet that dogs in bowl games who cover have a good percentage of winning outright. I like to do "1 unit" on the +4 and then 0.5 unit on +ML. I don't have the percentage handy for how often the Dogs covering win outright but the number was high enough that it was a no-brainer several of the past few years.

    UAB and EMich only two that have covered but lost SU this year. Other 5 dogs have won SU
     
  14. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Hey man, all input more than welcome. Everyone else free to jump in too. And you're absolutely right.

    Since 1980, the favorite has won but the underdog covered in 26% of the regular season games. In bowl games that drops to 14%. This is despite the favorite covering roughly the same 48% of games in both regular and bowl season. The ROI on betting the underdogs outright has been more profitable 5 of the last 6 years than betting the underdog with the spread.
     
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  15. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    No play on the Texas Bowl for me. I'd lean Texas A&M and the over. Jimbo normally excels in spots like these. Also, unranked teams are generally a good play in bowl season against ranked teams.
     
    #65 FSUsem, Dec 27, 2019
    Last edited: Dec 27, 2019
  16. KJROD20

    KJROD20 the ends will justify the means.
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    I had to make my picks yesterday (was at my parents in NJ, I live in NY). I'm on:

    UNC -6 (woo)
    Wake +4
    OK St +6.5
    Air Force -2.5

    Good luck to everyone today.
     
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  17. CUAngler

    CUAngler Royale with Cheese
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    Got the dub to start the day. I have no faith in wake but at least we can’t lose.
     
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  18. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Ha, just was saying the same about Wake re: lacking some faith. I even have less faith in Michigan State’s offense. First one to 13 wins.
     
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  19. CUAngler

    CUAngler Royale with Cheese
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    True. They are tough to watch. My pessimism is more so rooted in conference affiliation.
     
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  20. The Hebrew Husker

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    lol wow
     
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  21. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Sitting out the Holiday bowl as well. Line seems sharp. Iowa would seem to have the motivational advantage but tough to back that offense.
     
  22. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    ****Air Force -2.5
    *****Air Force/Washington St. Under 70.5
     
    #72 FSUsem, Dec 27, 2019
    Last edited: Dec 28, 2019
  23. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Wow that's a rough loss for over bettors.
     
  24. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    A little early

    *****LSU/Oklahoma Under 76
    *****Clemson/Ohio St. Under 63
     
  25. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Bowl picks are 8-5, up 5.2 units
     
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  26. All_Luck

    All_Luck OK. Cool Husk em!
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    Keep it up. Nice job cappin the WSU/AF game
     
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  27. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    This year System A and B are each 10-7 ATS (59%). When all 3 agree, 4-2 ATS (66%). When A & B agree, 6-3 ATS (66%). Good numbers so far with vol. 2.
     
  28. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    ***Penn State -7
     
  29. KJROD20

    KJROD20 the ends will justify the means.
    Boston Red SoxBoston CelticsNew York RangersSeton Hall Pirates

    Good day yesterday, let's keep rolling today.

    PSU -7
    ND -3.5
    OU +14
    OSU ML

    Plus I put in a 7 team ML parlay with a DK free bet I had, so if PSU, ND, and LSU just win SU, that'd be a nice bonus.

    FSUsem I'm interested in your thoughts behind the unders in both semis.
     
  30. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    ****Oklahoma +14
     
  31. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    No play for me on the Champs Sports bowl but I lean Notre Dame. Not sure if they care much about this second-tier Orlando bowl after losing their O coordinator when they were in the playoff last year...but if they do they should roll Iowa State.
     
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  32. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    All we're hearing about is how great the 4 QBs are. Maybe this is the reason the totals are 5+ points higher than the projected O/U Avg number (despite it typically being within 2-3 points). The reason isn't because of pace, we're dealing with 4 teams who all rank outside the top 45. While we're obviously dealing with 4 elite offenses, I think all 4 DLs have the advantage over the OLs on paper. The totals seem inflated.
     
  33. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Saturday, December 28
    ***Penn State -7

    ****Oklahoma +14
    *****LSU/Oklahoma Under 76
    *****Clemson/Ohio St. Under 63
     
    #83 FSUsem, Dec 28, 2019
    Last edited: Dec 30, 2019
  34. Dildo Dawgins

    Dildo Dawgins Well-Known Member
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    Everyone on Reddit and Twitter is all over tOSU and I already placed max bets on Clemson (ML and -2). :ohdear:


    Oh well I really like those under picks and thanks for the AF/Wazzu picks.
     
  35. The Hebrew Husker

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    This should make you feel good about your bets haha
     
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  36. Dildo Dawgins

    Dildo Dawgins Well-Known Member
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    That and the fact the line has moved to -2.5.
     
  37. Corky Bucek

    Corky Bucek Placeholder for a Custom Title
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    Well this Under and OU bet don’t look good
     
  38. GovNole

    GovNole Well-Known Member

    Under still has a small shot as at some point you have to think LSU will let off the gas and run clock.
     
  39. GovNole

    GovNole Well-Known Member

    Yeah...the under is toast. Oklahoma defense is Swiss cheese.
     
  40. FSUsem

    FSUsem The Original User #2
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    Well that under can be written off. Terrible play.
     
  41. Malik Zulu

    Malik Zulu your girl chose me

    Live bet is fucking 98
     
  42. The Hebrew Husker

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    I took LSU -13 about a week ago, I played the under thinking the over was one of those “too easy” type bets....oops.
     
  43. GovNole

    GovNole Well-Known Member

    Took 2nd half under 34. Was sweating the last few minutes but made up a little for the game under.
     
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  44. asmith2021

    asmith2021 Member

    This last under helped out. On to Monday
     
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  45. letan

    letan Just looking for the gator board
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    What’s everyone think about the championship game line?
     
  46. Tommy Callahan

    Tommy Callahan Well-Known Member
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    I’m not betting against LSU again I’ll say that
     
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  47. FearMySpear

    FearMySpear Crafty Veteran
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    Opened at 4 on my book. Already at -5 where I just put 10 units on it
     
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  48. FearMySpear

    FearMySpear Crafty Veteran
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    Think it will get to 7
     
  49. Tommy Callahan

    Tommy Callahan Well-Known Member
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    Although looks like the sheet will be Clemson? Especially at the value from +14 on a?
     
  50. GovNole

    GovNole Well-Known Member

    I'm probably taking Clemson. Think line will be inflated due to them dominating a depleted Oklahoma team today. Hope it gets to 7 but think it'll probably be 5 -6
     
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