Well this sucks gotta keep reminding myself I’m still pacing for my best year and just hold on tight I guess.
Took my beating on Wednesday by selling my QID that I had been holding for a month. Got back in Thursday but that did suck. Has been waiting and waiting for hanks dip. The Hebrew Husker , I Guess we both had to sell our inverse to trigger it. I will post hanks weekend update when I log onto my computer.
I'm selling everything this is stupid and I don't mind just eating the loss. No reason to continue just burning money like this with no real knowledge of when it will end. I got scammed O well. Lesson learned
For the first time in 3 days one of my positions is in the green for the day. This is fun, I’m having fun.
you should be selling way OOM puts on MSFT and AAPL right now with elevated premiums. this is just a shake out of those with weak hands.
The Dow gapped higher at yesterday’s open, then started to fall before rallying late in the session. The volatile session was driven by a less than stellar Jobs Report, bullish holiday bias and patterns that appear to be completed. The BLS reported that while 1.4 Million jobs were created in August, it was significantly less than the 1.7 Million in July and 4.8 Million in June. So, the number of new jobs being created appears to be losing momentum. This is a significant issue for the economy as the country is still down 11.5 Million jobs from February. On the positive side, the unemployment rate dropped to 8.4 percent which is the first time since March its been below 10 percent. One thing I noted in the report as troublesome for the longer term was the fact that more than 8 Million people have been unemployed for more than 15 weeks or more. When workers are unemployed for that long, they tend to not go back to work. In other words, these job losses will likely be permanent, which will impact the economy in other ways. Anyhow, the jobs report is behind us and once we get past Labor Day, so will the bullish bias. My data shows the market is more than twice as likely to trade lower the week following Labor Day. The data also shows that trading could be volatile, with the average gain being about half the average loss which was about 6 percent. From a pattern perspective, all the markets I follow have reached their target highs and appear complete. This includes the major European and Asian markets. Yesterday, the Dow finished with a loss of 159 points, closing at 28,133. So, it lost over 1,000 points in two days. That’s impulsive and suggests the top that I have been expecting for several weeks is finally in. The decline was enough to turn my market timing indicators for the Dow and NASDAQ Negative. The broader S&P500 was also down yesterday, falling 3.51 percent. SentimentTrader.com reported that this was only the third time in history the index declined more than 3 percent. The tech heavy NASDAQ lost 5.23 percent as Apple and Tesla got clobbered, losing 8 and 9 percent, respectively. In Thursday’s Comments I talked about how Tesla and Apple were both forming inverse Hockey Stick prices that should lead to lower prices. Tesla is now down 23 percent from last Monday’s pre-market high. The patterns on both stocks suggest the decline is only beginning. Even after Tesla's 23 percent decline, its P/E is still an insane 1,083!!!! Yup, it's only the beginning. I found it interesting to note that Yahoo's web page shows a yearly target of 288.86 for Tesla. Usually they are very optimistic. Tesla closed at 418 on Friday. In Thursday’s Comments I also talked about the 28,290 level on the Dow as being an important level to watch, as a close below that level would mean the Dow has made a lower low, something usually associated with a Bear Market. Friday close of 28,133 with an intraday low of 27,664 satisfied that requirement. So now, unless the Dow can rally back above last Wednesday’s high of 29,163, I MUST assume that the Bear Market is underway. My next short-term target for the Dow is the 26,600 level, with even lower prices likely. This target level is obtained from the lower trendline of the rising channel pattern the Dow has been in since late June. If this trend line is broken, the next level of support is the 23,000 level. Beyond that is the February low. BTW, Friday’s losses would have been far greater if it were not for PPT buying throughout the day. By breaking below Wednesday’s gap opening low of 28,713 and the previous low of 28,290, I am now on Full Red Alert. The Market Timing Indicators on the Dow and NASDAQ have turned Negative. The DMIs for these indexes are also Negative. The Dean’s List remains Positive while The Tide remains Neutral. A positive Up-Down oscillator is keeping the Tide neutral One indicator that hasn’t turned Negative yet is the Sector Ratio. After yesterday’s trading it was unchanged at 22-2 Positive. This is something students should watch as we get further into next week. The top five strong sectors were Leisure, Transportation, Retail, Service, Cap Goods, and Insurance. The two weak sectors were Energy and Semiconductors. There were NO CHANGES to the Model after yesterday's session. The Model continues to hold trial positions of 1,200 shares of TWM, 1,600 shares of DXD, 400 shares of DUST, and $43,379 in cash. The Model continues to look for opportunities to buy shares of inverse index ETFs. Gold (GLD) rose 0.5 points yesterday to 181.64. Gold (the metal) remains on a Neutral Signal. The pattern suggests that wave 3 down is about to begin. This wave could take the metal down to the 1,675 level, which is my current target for spot gold. As long as gold stays below the recent wave 2 high of 1,992.59, I MUST assume that it’s heading lower. HUI, the gold miners index, remains on a Sell Signal. Next week should see the Dollar push slightly lower before starting its Major Wave 3 rally. If this happens, the Euro and physical gold could see a small rally. The rally could be a nice entry point to short gold. No change to Bonds, as Wave 3 down should take prices on TMF below the 28 August low of 38.1. Beyond that is the 5 June low near the 33 level. This means that interest rates are heading higher…something that should contribute to a decline in equities. That’s what I’m doing, h The Model Portfolio is being shown for educational purposed only. The Buy/Sell actions in the Model Portfolio are made based on technical indicators that can and do change frequently and should NOT be considered as recommendations for trading an actual portfolio. Any gain or loss in the Model Portfolio should not be used to predict future performance of the Model.
One of the things students should be watching during the next few days is last Friday’s low of 334.87 on the SPY. The reason I say this is because last Thursday and Friday, the volume on that index was the highest since 11 and 12 June. Before that, you need to go back to 21 and 24 February, just before the market crashed. The difference between these two periods is that in the first case, June, the S&P held the 2-day volume spike low. It did NOT crash. In February, the SPY closed below the 2-day spike low. So, whenever you see two consecutive days where the volume spikes, you must pay attention to the spike low. It can be of critical importance. There’s also another reason I want you to pay attention to SPY 334.87 on a closing basis. During the weekend, I had a chance to look at one of the algorithms I use to highlight a few stocks to trade. I noticed that on Friday, 4 September, the algorithm, which is usually extremely quiet, highlighted 56 stocks as Sells. This is very unusual as it usually only highlights about 2-3, if any. So, I started to look the days prior to Friday. On 3 Sept, it highlighted 39 as Sells. On 9/1 there were 27, so the number of Sell Signals is increasing. Hmmm? I then went back to the two periods where was just starting to rally to see what the algorithm did. For reference, the DMI on the Dow turned positive on 7 April. During the 4 days surrounding 7 April, the algorithm highlighted 21, 19, 48 and 48 stocks. This led to a 5,000 point gain in the Dow into early June before the market took a breather. The algorithm became active again in early July when it highlighter 29 to 31 stocks each day as Buys during the period from 6/30 to 7/6. This led to another 3,000 point gain in the Dow into early September. So, after reviewing this amazing performance, I was anxious to see what the algorithm was doing in February, just before the crash. Here are the numbers: Now remember, this algorithm is usually incredibly quiet. But on 2/19, it highlighted 19 stocks in the S&P 500 data base as Sells. It got up to 25 on 2/21. Then, on 2/24, the day the Dow dropped 1,031 points in one day, the algorithm highlighted 214 stocks as Sells. Less than a month later, the Dow was down over 10,000 points! So, with Thursday/Friday’s volume spike and the algorithm highlighting 56 stocks with Sell Signals, you can be sure I’m watching 334.87 on the SPY this week. That’s what I’m doing, h
Not sure, but I think 335 was the 2 standard deviation move for last week. It bounced and ended the week right at the 1 standard deviation move, so the down move was well within reason. I believe 335 is now the 1 standard deviation move down for this week. So we may bounce out of this hole again, but I am seeing 90% of the S&P 100 down right now. This selling is pretty correlated across the board. DXY made a large move today. Again, gaps below us around 327 that very well could be filled. I will be scalping with tight exits at the extremes. And you are right about the volume. It went from 40M-70M total daily volume to 150M on Friday. Volume came back in a big way.
Soooo I bought 9/11 $120 AAPL calls this morning at 2.20. Not looking good now. Hoping for an afternoon rally or a big bounce tomorrow.....
The dollar is really overbought at these levels, and the VXN dropped on a 4% down day. I wouldn’t be entering shorts at this point.
Think I might take a look at some Apple calls and hope for a bounce after their iPhone release they just announced
So I played my lotto ticket OTM straddle concept on TSLA today. A couple more days like this for that ticker would be great.
You have balls of steel to hold weeklies overnight this week. BA's upside is off the table for me if the market is tanking. I am looking at the 155 level below as the next big support. Weekly 155 puts gave you several attempts at entry today and paid solidly. Only felt good at the last lower high for me, so upside was capped at 50%. Could have played the calls as well from ~160 or when SPY initially bounced off the 335 level. Seeing a massive gap-down in SPY during after hours. We are going lower I believe. Big target that we couldn't break through last month was 319.5. 323 was my death level, but there was a wall at 319.5 that we could not bust through. Any selling through that is very bad news.
no, still needs to have about a 99% drop in price to represent value, not even kidding, if it wants a P/E in line with the biggest car producers it needs to go down about 99%
The markets got hit hard again yesterday, continuing the decline that started last Thursday. The Dow has now lost almost 1,700 points in three days. I believe the decline has a lot more downside to go. The large cap index finished with a loss of 632 points yesterday, closing at 27,501. The NASDAQ and SPX were down 465 and 95 points, respectively. Volume on the NYSE was heavy, coming in at 113 percent of its 10-day average. There were 25 new highs and 24 new lows. In yesterday’s Comments, I talked about the 334.87 level on the SPY as being a critical level that if broken, would increase the possibility of a crash starting in the days ahead. That level was broken yesterday when the SPY closed at 333.21. So now, even though the market could rally today because it is EXTREMELY oversold, I MUST view all rallies as shorting opportunities, as the next decline on the Dow should test the 26,600 level, with 23,000 after that. If the Dow does rally today, it could try to fill yesterday’s opening gap down near the 27,928 level. Anything near or above yesterday’s apparent wave ‘b’ high of 27,837 up to 27,928, the gap low, would be a place where I will be looking to add to my short positions. From a technical perspective, yesterday’s decline appeared to be wave 1 down and part of wave 2 up of Major Wave 3 down. If the market rallies today, it would likely be the ‘c’ wave of wave 2 up which means that wave 3 of Major Wave 3 down should be next. In yesterday’s Comments I also talked about how one of my algorithms was starting to highlight a lot of shorts which in the past has preceded significant declines. I mentioned that the algorithm highlighted 56 stocks with Sell Signals on Friday. That number increased to 102 after yesterday’s session, which tells me the coming decline could be significant. Like I said yesterday, on a typical day, the algorithm is usually quiet, only highlighting 2-3 stocks, if any. When it started highlighting numerous stocks with Sell Signals back in February, it led to a crash of over 10,000 Dow points. The two times it started highlighting stocks with Buy Signals in April and July, the Dow gained 5,000 and 3,000 points. Now the algorithm is becoming active again generating numerous Sell Signals. Please be careful! The Dean's List and the Tide have turned Negative. Students should take a quick look at how short the Dean's List has become. So for months, the List has been long and positive. Now its short and negative. The Dean is trying to tell you something. The one indicator that has not confirmed the move down yet is the Sector Ratio. Even after three days of decline, the Ratio is still 22-2 positive. Energy and Semiconductors remain the two weak sectors. If the market rallies today, and then begins to decline later in the week, I would expect the Sector Ratio to confirm the other indicators as the downside momentum begins to increase. Looking for shorting opportunities. That’s what I’m doing. h
Feels like an important morning, if this is a short lived jump up can’t help but think we are in for some big pain.
Very slightly OOM DKNG call options are addicting when purchased mid-morning. Up over 50% in 15 minutes