Is there anyone you guys feel is a regrettable take? I look down the list and wonder if Coogan is a guy with any shot at seeing the field. But he was a guy they grabbed when the wheels were falling off the class. Full disclosure Im purely going off of rankings.
I am much less worried now that the admin seems to be on board processing kids through medical and early graduation
I think Coogan's tape is pretty solid and he had I believe legit offers from OSU, LSU, OU. The only guy that really stands out to me that I am not that high on is Will Schweitzer which means he will probably be a star. Since Rees' father came over to help scout they seem to be identifying 3 star guys a lot better. Rarely do we get a guy and I question 'Why?' which happened a lot in the early Kelly classes. Some of these kids might not pan out but usually I see what the staff is going for with some of these lower rated players, they usually have some sort of elite athletic trait and just need to be coached up (Onye, Tucker, Alt)
Was bored and ranked/listed the recruits so far. Didn't really disagree too strongly with Rivals/247 aside from a couple of prospects. Spoiler 1. Blake Fisher - 5 Star - Top 25 2. Lorenzo Styles - 4 Star - Top 50 3. Rocco Spindler - 4 Star - Top 100 4. Gabriel Rubio - 4 Star - Top 100 5. Prince Kollie - 4 Star - Top 100 6. Ryan Barnes - 4 Star - Top 150 7. Deion Colzie - 4 Star - Top 150 8. Tyler Buchner - 4 Star - Top 150 (His throwing motion still terrifies me) 9. Philip Riley - 4 Star - Top 200 10. Caleb Johnson - 4 Star - Top 200 11. Pat Coogan - 4 Star - Top 250 12. Cane Berrong - 4 Star - Top 250 13. Joe Alt - 4 Star - Outside Top 250 14. Jayden Thomas - 4 Star - Outside Top 250 15. Chance Tucker - 5.7 3 Star 16. Kahanu Kia - 5.7 3 Star 17. Logan Diggs - 5.7 3 Star 18. Jason Onye - 5.7 3 Star 19. Justin Walters - 5.6 3 Star 20. Mitchell Evans - 5.6 3 Star 21. Will Schweitzer - 5.5 3 Star 22. Joshua Bryan - Yes - Kick it through uprights please Guys left on the board: Donovan Edwards - 4 Star - Top 50 Kevin Gilliam - 4 Star - Top 100 Ceyair Wright - 4 Star - Top 150 Byron Cardwell - 4 Star - Top 250 Audric Estime - 4 Star - Top 250
yeah that 2017 class had studly 3 stars: MTA, JOK, Hinish, Drew White, Doerer, Armstrong. Getting 6 our of 11 3 stars to perform well and a further 2 (michael Young, McCollister) to transfer to make room is just a crazy score. Just leaves Gibbons (still an okay depth piece), Genmark Heath(decent on special teams) and Wardlow(who also tried to transfer) thats a lot better than the 2018 class i was more excited about. 2019 looks nice though early on
The coaches are just flat out better at evaluating then they ever were under Weis/first 5 years of Kelly. The 3 stars of the last 3 classes have been just different types of dudes and it shows on the field. I do think they have whiffed hard at DB but that's been covered up for now by scheme/transfers/etc. I mean are we really that upset about guys like Walters, Coogan, Onye, Kia, Schweitzer? I think these guys are going to play for ND
I think its more a general idea. Some of those guys were takes when recruiting was reeling and maybe now they could be shooting higher, but I agree with you. They are much better at identifying than in the past. Book Kyren JOK Hinish MTA Lewis Kiser Liufau All 3 stars, and outside all making huge impacts.
Even if they miss, those kids are getting processed so the overall talent on the team has risen considerably from say the 2009-2014 period Kelly is figuring it out
Agreed completely. Recall, at the time he was offered and accepted, Hamilton was ranked in that area. Our staff did a great job of recognizing his talent before the sites did. Then, between camps and his senior season, his rankings blew up. This year, with COVID, a lot of those guys that the staff was able to ID before the pundits, haven't had as many chances to prove themselves against other top prospects. There are no camps and very few, of any, teams who travelled to match up with other strong programs. Many played shorter seasons, and many didn't play at all. Without having any data in front of me, my guess is this year's rankings are seeing much less upward mobility.
Lol, get ready for a Levar Ball type of parental interference. His parent got a white coach fired for not getting his team. The next coach quit after a year. He'll be a good get, and Brey seems like he's outta fucks to give. Like someone else said, you can't pass on local talent like that.
totally forgot about having the coach fired at riley. just re-read the SBT article and it calls out his mom (definitely missed this at the time, not knowing who this kid was). let's hope it works out (assuming he comes to ND). having two local kids as part of the 2021 class could b great
I grew up with his mom (few years older but same HS) and his father is a local legend. He's a bit of a selfish kid that blames others. I know a lot of refs that say the exact same thing. Good kid but doesn't maximize talent. Still a get ND has to have.
Probably gonna have format issues but let's see Spoiler Questions teams need to address if they want to make the College Football Playoff 8:00 AM ET Bill Connelly ESPN Staff Writer Each offseason, I write what I call the "ifs list." I take all of the top national title contenders (using the offseason betting odds) in college football and ask myself how many "ifs" it would take me to make them national champions. How many key holes do they have to fill? How many questions do they need to find good answers for? Granted, this year's exercise, which took place in the weirdest offseason of most of our respective lifetimes, was a bit off-kilter, referencing players who wouldn't even end up playing (hello, Jamie Newman) and schedules that wouldn't actually come to fruition. Still, going through this exercise creates a hierarchy of sorts. The top teams might need only one or two ifs to break right, but others might need a lot more. This offseason exercise serves a purpose during the season, too. Using the Allstate Playoff Predictor as our guide -- and ignoring, for now, all 2020-specific "if a certain number of games don't get canceled"-style qualifiers -- let's see how many ifs it takes us to create champions out of the current field. Jump to a team: Alabama | Ohio State | Clemson | Wisconsin Notre Dame | Oregon | Florida | Indiana | BYU | Cincinnati Texas A&M | USC | Northwestern 1 'If' Alabama Odds of reaching the CFP: 90% If ... the pass rush actually starts to get home. Since allowing 48 points to Ole Miss, Alabama has allowed a total of 41 points in its past three games and should be able to pin Kentucky down on Saturday. The Tide are back up to 12th in defensive SP+ -- not Bama-like, but close, and good enough when you've got the best offense in the country. But against College Football Playoff-caliber teams, they might need a little extra something, and the pass rush is the most obvious candidate for improvement. The Tide rank just 99th in sack rate and 102nd on passing downs. This leads directly to their biggest issue: They're only 65th in passing downs success rate and 123rd in third-and-long (third-and-7+) success rate. They can't get off the field when they get the chance. Now, Bama still sometimes rushes the quarterback in productive ways -- it's 43rd in pressure rate, and linebacker Christian Harris has forced 10 incompletions or interceptions -- but nothing beats a negative play, and Bama needs more of them. Ohio State CFP odds: 59% If ... the pass defense shows up at some point. Ryan Day's Buckeyes have been able to ease into 2020, slowly unfurling one strength at a time and overwhelming opponents without much effort. They've won their first three games, including two against SP+ top-40 teams, by an average of 46-23, and they haven't even gotten around to defending the pass yet! That's going to happen at some point, right? Surely? The Buckeyes are 91st in passing success rate allowed and are struggling to force obvious pass situations. Despite having a pair of dynamite corners in Shaun Wade and Sevyn Banks, new defensive coordinator Kerry Coombs has chosen to mostly play a pretty passive zone coverage. That's something a team like Indiana could take advantage of -- Hoosiers quarterback Michael Penix Jr. is averaging just 5.9 yards per pass against man coverage this year but 9.1 against zone. Is this the week Coombs gets more aggressive? Or is this going to be an actual problem the rest of the season? Clemson CFP odds: 43% If ... the safeties lock things down. Clemson's offense averaged 37 points per game in Trevor Lawrence's absence, and now the Tigers' star quarterback is back in the lineup. I can't even pretend to be concerned about the offense. The defense, however, has one particular concern. One of my June ifs for Clemson was "If ... a young safety corps doesn't suffer too many glitches." That has turned out to be a sporadic issue. Clemson is 99th in marginal explosiveness allowed, a measure that looks at the magnitude of an offense's successful plays and adjusts for field position. In standard downs situations, where offenses can theoretically either run or pass, the Tigers rank 110th. Corners Sheridan Jones, Derion Kendrick and Andrew Booth Jr. have been dynamite, but when safeties Nolan Turner, Lannden Zanders and Joseph Charleston are lined up as primary cover men, they're allowing more than 17 yards per completion and 9.9 yards per attempt. To say the least, that's something Alabama or Ohio State could take advantage of in a theoretical CFP. 2 'Ifs' Wisconsin CFP odds: 55% If ... the big-play battle shifts a bit. Wisconsin's defense has been ruthlessly efficient thus far, ranking a distant first in success rate allowed. The offense, powered by quarterback Graham Mertz's great start, ranks 26th in success rate, too. Great combination. The Badgers do have an explosiveness problem, though. According to Sports Info Solutions' explosive play rate measure -- the percentage of plays gaining 12+ rushing yards or 16+ passing yards -- opponents are making more big plays than they are: 13.0% (72nd) to the offense's 11.5% (81st). Do you think that might be costly against Indiana on Dec. 5? Against Ohio State in a theoretical Big Ten championship game? If ... the dominance translates this time. The Badgers exploded out of the gates last year, too, and that didn't stop them from losing two games to Ohio State by a combined 72-28. A CFP bid might not require a Big Ten title game win over Ohio State, but a title run will require enough upside to take down someone from the "1 If" category. Notre Dame CFP odds: 48% If ... FGs turn into TDs (and vice versa). As stirring as Notre Dame's win over Clemson was two weeks ago, the Irish could have won comfortably had they not lost a fumble at the goal line and settled for five field goals. EDITOR'S PICKS Can Indiana really be a football school, big tests for mid-majors and more to watch in Week 12 Week 12 college football best bets: No. 7 Cincinnati visits UCF Connelly: Top-10 vs. Top-10 games with huge spreads are rare Notre Dame ranks 74th in goal-to-go touchdown rate and 66th in success rate inside the 10. The defense ranks 58th and 90th, respectively. If you're giving your opponent touchdowns while you're settling for field goals, it adds up in a hurry. If ... blitz downs produce fewer explosions. I define blitz downs as second-and-22+ or third-and-5+. They're the most obvious passing situations. Notre Dame's defense has been awesome overall, but the Irish rank just 80th in blitz down sack rate, and opponents are gaining 20+ yards on 12% of blitz downs (102nd). Considering the QBs left on the schedule -- UNC's Sam Howell, probably Clemson's Trevor Lawrence, maybe Alabama's Mac Jones or Ohio State's Justin Fields -- you can see why that might be an issue. Oregon CFP odds: 32% If ... the pass rush shows up. Oregon has one sack in two games and ranks 122nd in the FBS with a 1.7% sack rate. Star end Kayvon Thibodeaux is making plays against the run, but he is credited with just one pressure in 21 pass-rush attempts. The Ducks are blitzing on 29% of opponent dropbacks (52nd), but they aren't getting anywhere, and it's contributing to some big-play issues. This hasn't been costly yet -- the Ducks beat Stanford and Washington State by a combined 78-43, after all -- and they might be more successfully aggressive when they have to be. But it's a box they still need to check. If ... "something from nothing" continues. The pairing of offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead and quarterback Tyler Shough has thus far produced a high completion rate, lots of third-and-manageables and 39 points per game. The key has been their ability to turn short passes -- often from almost triple-option-esque RPO (run-pass option) passes to the perimeter -- into big gains. As opponents get more familiar with this attack, will the low-risk big plays continue? Florida CFP odds: 18% If ... the run defense achieves competence. Doesn't seem like too much to ask. The pass rush has rounded into form and taken the pass defense with it, but the Gators are still getting gashed on the ground. Arkansas' Trelon Smith and Rakeem Boyd gained 174 yards on 20 carries last week, and Georgia backs gained 151 in 15 the week before. Florida ranks 97th in rushing success rate allowed and 68th in rushing marginal explosiveness. Defending the pass might be the most important thing in today's game, but minimal run competence is still required. If ... the defense gets off the field when it can. The pass defense isn't glitch-free, however. Even with Brenton Cox Jr. (23 pressures, two sacks, eight forced INCs/INTs) taking the pass rush to a better place, Florida still ranks 91st in passing downs success rate allowed and 96th on third-and-long. The Gators' offense is otherworldly and will give them a chance in any game, but Alabama's offense ranks first on passing downs, Wisconsin's second and Ohio State's third. Danger! Indiana CFP odds: 2% If ... third-and-medium becomes its friend. On third-and-7+ this season, Michael Penix Jr. and the Indiana offense have generated a 38% success rate, which is 12th in the country. Penix stands tall in the pocket and absorbs pressure, and he makes some killer throws to Ty Fryfogle, Whop Philyor and Miles Marshall. In a small-sample quirk, however, the Hoosiers third-down success rate with between 2 and 7 yards to go is only 35% (109th). Penix is just 6-for-16 passing, and only two of these incompletions were on long throws. IU's timing has been strangely off, and it's ending a lot of drives before they start. If ... the big plays get smaller. The IU defense has been fun and aggressive, forcing three-and-outs on 39% of drives (12th) and allowing only 1.4 points per drive (15th). But the Hoosiers are 98th in marginal explosiveness allowed and have allowed six gains of 30+ yards in four games. As the degree of difficulty increases, this could become a much bigger issue. IU has only two "ifs," but they'll be devastating if they aren't righted quickly. 3 'Ifs' BYU CFP odds: 23% If ... Zach Wilson is worth the hype. Wilson has been phenomenal, producing a top-10 Total QBR rating and a passer rating over 200. If the Cougars manage to buck all previous trends and sneak into the CFP field despite a lack of power-conference status, he'll have to continue raising his game. An early-December battle with San Diego State should help -- the Aztecs have the best pass defense he'll have faced to date. If ... the pass defense responds when challenged. BYU is 42nd in passing success rate and 10th in passing downs success rate, and while the Cougars have been fine, we have no idea how they will perform against an elite passing game because they haven't faced one. That's not to say they will definitely fail, but we don't know that they will make many stops. If ... the Cougars get help. The CFP committee has not yet shown any interest in placing a non-major program anywhere near a top-four position. But if enough things happen -- if Alabama wallops Florida, if Notre Dame beats Clemson again (or loses twice), if Wisconsin slips, if the Pac-12 champ isn't unbeaten -- then at some point the committee might not have a choice. We'll see just how much has to happen, though. Cincinnati CFP odds: 12% If ... Desmond Ridder's passing-downs magic continues. The fact that the Bearcats are sixth in defensive SP+ is impressive but not completely surprising -- they've been awesome on that side of the ball for a while. More surprising? The UC offense is ranked 25th. Ridder has an even scarier run threat than normal (10.7 yards per non-sack carry), but he's also completing 67% of his passes and ranks 13th in Total QBR. And the Bearcats are 11th in passing downs success rate. If that continues, Cincinnati will continue to dominate. If ... the red zone is friendlier. The offense does, however, rank 90th in first-and-goal success rate and 33rd in goal-to-go TD rate. The defense, meanwhile, ranks only 37th in goal-to-go situations. Again, settling for field goals (and preventing your opponent from doing the same) is a surefire way to lose in the CFP. This is an area for possible improvement. If ... they get help. See BYU above. Texas A&M CFP odds: 9% If ... easy scores become a thing. Jimbo Fisher's Aggies have undeniably improved of late, but with three of their next four opponents ranked in the SP+ top 50, it would behoove them to figure out how to create some easy points. They're 89th in marginal explosiveness, and their average of 4.2 gains per game of 20+ yards ranks 77th. If ... the red zone becomes their friend. Big plays are doubly vital when you aren't great in the red zone. A&M scores TDs on only 64% of its goal-to-go situations (98th) and has allowed them 100% of the time. Not great. If ... the pass defense either stops bending or stops breaking. The Aggies are 25th in defensive SP+, but they're stuck between identities. They're not incredibly efficient or disruptive (56th in success rate), and they're not brilliant at big-play prevention (48th in marginal explosiveness). You probably need to be elite at something on one side of the ball or the other, and A&M is merely just good at a lot. play 1:14 Making the case for A&M to make the CFPSEC Now analyst Matt Stinchcomb makes the case for how Texas A&M can get into the College Football Playoff. USC CFP odds: 4% If ... late-game Kedon Slovis plays all game. Opponents are often forcing Slovis to settle for shorter passes, and drives eventually bog down -- the Trojans are 17th in yards per drive but 44th in points per drive. But in the last half of the fourth quarter, he has led four touchdown drives and completed 79% of his passes. So, uh, do that all game. Easy, right? If ... they throw out the short-yardage playbook. The Trojans have attempted five fourth-down conversions per game so far, most in the country. Great! The problem: They're only 6-for-10 overall, and all four failures have come on runs up the middle on fourth-and-1. You've got an offense built on passing and spreading the field, so maybe stick to your identity on the most important play of the drive? If ... the run defense improves, a lot. Arizona State's DeaMonte Trayanum and Rachaad White combined for 24 carries and 160 yards, then Arizona's Gary Brightwell went for 21 and 112. This was a massive issue last season, and early indications haven't been favorable. Northwestern CFP odds: 3% If ... the run game provides anything at all. Under new offensive coordinator Mike Bajakian, the Wildcats have an actual identity: They run the ball a lot and move with reasonable tempo, and QB Peyton Ramsey makes the occasional big throw on passing downs. The problem: The run game still stinks. They're 118th in rushing success rate, and Ramsey has to make too many bailout throws. Northwestern's awesome defense doesn't require a ton of points, but can the offense score enough against teams like Wisconsin? If ... there are at least a few big plays. Northwestern is averaging 2.8 gains per game of 20+ yards. Only eight FBS teams average fewer. Again, the bar is low here, but it's higher than that. If ... the pass rush provides a bit more oomph. The Wildcats are fifth in defensive SP+ and are as dominant as ever in the red zone, but against a high-level quarterback such as Fields or Mertz, pressure is a must, and that hasn't really been in the Wildcats' DNA. They're 118th in blitzes per dropback and 105th in sack rate.
They’re a COVID cancellation away from not being eligible for the b1g championship. I don’t see them getting into the playoffs
They've been on Wisconsin since day one. I mean I think they're good, but before games were canceled, ND was the favorite. I get that if they win the B1G and they're in, but that would require beating Northwestern, Indiana, and Ohio St. I know one of those things aren't like the other two, but still. I would put Wiskys chances of beating OSU about the same as ND beating Clemson again.
Yeah they are obviously a pretty good team but there's a lot standing in their way. They have a road game at Iowa in addition to the games you mentioned, plus they are hanging by a thread with Covid as laxjoe said. I'd give them maybe 55% odds to even make the BIG championship game and much less than that to win it. I suppose they could get in as a 1 loss runner up but that seems like a stretch. 55% just feels like a typo almost.
1 year with the increased schools limit and then he trains for 2 years and has 3-4 years left when he comes back
because there was absolutely zero risk he comes to ND for 2021 (no scholarship count) and he's a great special teams player...he might decide to stay and not go on a mission he comes to ND for 2021 (no scholarship count) and he's a great special teams player and he decides to go on his mission and it still doesn't count towards the scholarship so no loss
i usually don’t like this but it seems perfect this year, more time to get ready for the next Saturday. I will just take the afternoon off.
I meant I will take the Friday afternoon off. But today will be an off day too, i have a nice night out with the gf coming up.
I am pretty excited though, this place is right in my city and I have never been inside the hotel. Pretty much the only positive about COVID is that we can’t go anywhere but we visit our own city instead. We never do that normally. The food is supposed to be incredible, we have to eat in our room though.