Definitely high risk/high reward. Kid is a sophmore with only 1 year of actual playing experience. Too many holes to fill to take such a gamble with #7 pick. Roll with Goff and get value with #7 pick
The extra picks they got help fill those holes. This isn't a quick turnaround, it's not like taking someone on D to fill a hole over a QB is going to make us that much better next year. Lance has the talent and potential to be special. He for sure is a gamble but one I'd take at 7. I like him more than QB in next years class minus one. And I think there is a decent chance we pick in similar spot next year. Extra picks also let's you take Lance this year and worst case in 2 years if he looks like he is going to be a bust you can add another with extra picks without selling the farm to do so.
I wouldnt mind seeing them trade Goff for more picks and drafting Lance. I'm not a salary cap expert but wouldnt the salary cap take a beating with Goff and Lance?
I love that the local beat writers got absolutely owned during the whole coaching search, and Stafford trade rumors. Even the shitty Tigers guys broke trade news.
Dont get your hopes up on drafting a qb this year. Goff is on the roster for 2 years before he can be cut. Holmes pushed the Rams to trade up for him. If they loved a qb expected to be available, I think they would have taking a different trade offer with more immediate picks. Outside of something like Wilson surprisingly dropping, this is a roll with Goff for a year and see if he can recapture '17-18 success. If not, they'll be picking high again next year with more ammo to trade up to address the position.
I don’t think you dismiss a QB out of hand. The Lions are clearly thinking long term, so if there is a guy they like, they will take him. They took Goff to get another first. That isn’t a ringing endorsement of how they view him as a talent.
And having Goff two years doesn't mean anything in terms of drafting Lance. He was going to sit a minimum one year anyway most likely since he hasn't played in a year and making a huge competition jump. I was expecting us to sign Tyrod Taylor if we drafted him. Goff is just the guy instead. Even if within two years Lance shows he's ready, you can cut Goff in one year eating half his salary in dead cap or in two years with no penalty. Goff pans out, cool trade him in 2 years for more picks. If not, no big deal he ate time while your rookie developed and dump him in 2 years no penalties. Would mean 2 more years of high picks too
That's a fine plan if that's how the team looks at it. There's a lot of grey area in the "panning out" part of that though. Significant chance he doesn't pan out in any real way, but he's just good enough to win 5-6 games and put us out of franchise QB range in future drafts. Or, even worse, he's a poor man's Stafford and the front office likes him enough to keep him around despite everyone else knowing we'll never win shit with him here. The connection with Holmes weirds me out. Probably just paranoia, but I wish we left Goff out of the deal and taken immediate picks.
I'm worried about how front office views Goff too. I personally think you take a QB, but starting to think they won't
Rookie contracts are very manageable these days. Panthers drafted Derrick Brown at 7 last year, and he had a cap number of $4.2M, it appears to increase about $1.1M each year. You also get the fifth-year option.
So what is Goff's skillset? Accurate, weak-armed game manager who has some mobility? Because if I know the Lions, he's going to be our QB for the next 6 years.
From Breer • Both Washington and Carolina had offered their first-round picks and then some. The Panthers’ first-rounder is eighth (that wound up being the highest pick offered) and their proposal came with a later pick. Washington packaged a third-round pick with the 19th pick. • The Colts discussed packages of picks and players, but never actually wound up offering their first-rounder, the 21st pick. • The Niners talked to the Lions in Mobile, but at the time were a little lukewarm and never made an official offer. They’d planned to circle back with Detroit after the weekend, but when things escalated Saturday and the Lions called back, the price had gone beyond what they were willing to offer (in part because they’re fine going forward with Jimmy Garoppolo). My sense is the 12th pick was never going to be offered. • The Broncos discussed a pick swap with the Lions that would have equated to a late first-round pick, but it wound up becoming clear to Denver that they weren’t playing in the neighborhood where this was going. • The Patriots and Bears both checked in. New England was willing to package a second-rounder with a player to get Stafford, which, when added to the Patriots’ absence on a list of preferred destinations (something my buddy Tom Curran reported on Sunday) quickly eliminated Bill Belichick & Co. from the chase. • And finally, late Friday, the Jets checked in. The Lions circled back with New York on Saturday, but talks didn’t go very far.
Peter King What the Lions thought. New coach Dan Campbell and new GM Brad Holmes had this in common: They both wanted Goff, and not just as a bridge quarterback. As director of college scouting for the Rams when Goff was picked in 2016, Holmes favored him inside the Rams draft room—and still does, I’m told. Campbell, I’m also told, liked Goff not just as a bridge quarterback but as the Lions quarterback of the future.
I don’t buy the Goff as QB of the future talk, but it’s not something being too worked up about until after 2021 plays out.
That's the negative part of this trade for me, despite the haul, is that it could cost us a future QB because they view Goff as that
The Carolina thing has me twisted around and I'm not sure what to think of it. Seems the two explanations for doing the LAR deal over taking the 8th pick now are... - They think Goff is as good as the QBs they might pick at 7 (either because they think Goff is really good, or they think the QBs at 7 aren't) - They knew Stafford wanted LAR and didn't want CAR so they sent him where he wanted to go Not entire sure I feel great about either scenario, and I'm guessing they both came into play. The Goff thing is such a big risk if they feel that way.
Could be as simple as they don't love anyone at 8 and given the fact a lot of the guys in this draft who are options either opted out (Parsons) or played limited or no season (Lance) they wanted more picks when they had more time to evaluate players. They also could have viewed the offers similarly and decided to go with where Stafford wanted to go. I love the trade currently but it all depends what we do in the draft
Assuming the Rams are pretty good the next couple years, and there is no reason to think they won't be, it is the choice between a couple future picks in the 20s or the 8th pick. This year I don't love the options at 7-10 and DetroitNole makes a good point that scouting and evaluating is going to be way fucked up, so I can see taking the 2 future picks.
Then again, I'm forgetting a key component of this deal: it's the fucking Lions. Of course they fucked it up and will continue to fuck it up. That's what these assholes do. Shame on me and every one of you who had even a glimmer of hope that things would be different this time around.
Holmes still thinks Goff is an asset and fleeced the Rams for an additional pick. Only explanation that makes sense.
Trading your starting QB for the 8th pick (and presumably Teddy Bridgewater and another day 3 pick) would have also been long term thinking.
This isn't based on film study and only on the statistical aspect of Goff's performance, as well as the performance of the offense around him. This does not paint a particularly great picture for his chances of turning things around.
Early MG2 power rankings for players I would pick #7 (assuming Lawrence and Wilson go 1 and 2, and are thus off the board)... 1. Ja'Marr Chase, WR 2. Penei Sewell, OT 3. Justin Fields, QB 4. Rashawn Slater, OL 5. DeVonta Smith, WR 6. Trey Lance, QB 7. Micah Parsons, LB 8. Jeremiah Owusu-Karamoah, LB 9. Caleb Farley, CB 10. Zaven Collins, LB I don't want to pick Waddle in the top 10. Parsons would be higher (maybe fourth?) if his background wasn't so shaky. Slater kind of seems like a wild card where the people who like him love him and think he's worthy of the top 5, while others have him more in the late teens.
I, personally, wouldn't want Slater at WR. I value size on the outside as much as anyone but that is extreme.
Birkett mentioned the Lions being in a prime trade back spot now with everyone knowing the Panthers likely want a qb at #8
On the other fucking hand, I read this and have hope: https://touchdownwire.usatoday.com/2021/01/31/detroit-lions-jared-goff-matthew-stafford-sean-mcvay/ The second page has some film.
I would be interested in who wants to trade up to 7 to take Lance or Fields ahead of the Panthers. Would Washington? Indianapolis isn't going to draft a QB to fit their otherwise win-now mode. Denver? Chicago? Looking at the rest of the first round there doesn't seem to be many candidates.
The whole trade down conversation starts with how far a team is willing to move back. We may have been able to do something last year (or maybe not, who knows?), but Quinn made it clear didn't want to move beyond the top 5-6 picks. Most teams that pick that high don't want to trade back into the mid/late teens or early 20s. I would hope we're willing to consider doing that, and if we are maybe that leads to a WFT or IND trade, although I kind of doubt those teams would be willing to pay that price for #7 when they weren't willing to do it for Stafford.
We should still take a QB. There are 4 QBs projected in the top 8-10 this year. You don't get that much top end depth in every draft (I think 2018 is the only time in at least 20 years we saw 4 QBs go top 10, although Rosen sucked and Lamar Jackson should have been taken higher), and if this rebuild is truly looking at 2-3 years from now, it's the obvious correct move at #7.
One out of the box trade candidate would be New Orleans. They're known to be willing to do a lot of outside the box stuff. They're $100M over the cap currently, and they current seem to be planning on Taysom Hill as their future QB. Campbell and Aaron Glenn both know their personnel really well. What if they called and offered something like #28 and some combination of vets (Lattimore, Ramczyk, Davenport, and Baun are four examples I'm thinking of off the top of my head) and/or future picks to get their future guy? Rumors have been that they were going to take Mahomes four years ago in that draft before KC jumped them.
I'm happy to consider it, but if we don't love the 7-10 range in the draft and the few teams who would be looking for a QB would be looking at the 4th best QB and likely a project in Lance, I don't see a line of people looking to move up 7. They're better off trying to get ATL's pick so they can decide between Lance and Fields if they're both there at 4.
I think they liked what Jameis showed them in practice according to everything I've read. Think Jameis is starting in NO next year unless someone gets desperate enough to give him a big contract they can't match with their cap