AZ-Oxford is only approved for under 70s here so given the rollout will likely go to 55-69 and other essential workers over the next few weeks. Moderna and Pfizer are now going to be kept for the over 70s. J&J and AZ (from the end of March) will likely be for the under 50s to get us nice mass immunity. I think 50%-60% will be enough when all is said and done.
Awfully generous/optimistic. Have to account for people no longer practicing proper social distancing and masking with the psychology of vaccination. Contributes to the effective R0 as well.
Is the end goal for herd immunity completely eliminating the disease or is the end goal to eliminate the severe outcomes/hospitalizations
Given that we’ve only eliminated one disease through vaccination, and the likelihood of vaccine hesitantcy topping out how much of the population gets the vaccine, covid is likely to become an endemic. The good news is vaccines can be updated and there’s some thought that it will become much less severe over time.
Can you explain the last part? Do you mean the vaccine reactions will be less severe or that the disease itself will become less severe? My science background again is based on Ms Frizzle as well as The Andromeda Strain by Michael Chricton.
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/...-with-us-forever-heres-how-well-live-with-it/ COVID-19 will likely be with us forever. Here's how we'll live with it. Eventually, the virus could become a much milder illness—but for now, vaccination and surveillance are critical to end the pandemic phase.
Don’t know if I should post this here or in the Biden thread or both. But, the cdc coming out and saying it’s safe for teachers to return to work without being vaccinated is such bullshit. I know it’s not it but it does make me feel like what some republicans said would happen is happening. How is it all of a sudden safe for teachers to return less than. 2 weeks into this administration. Nothing has really changed. We see these variation coming here and all of a sudden it’s safe to throw my wife and kids in a Petri dish. I hope I misunderstood the statement.
Assume he was referring to this https://www.cnbc.com/2021/02/03/cdc...fely-reopen-without-vaccinating-teachers.html
I’ll see if I can find quote. It was on CNN and I forget who the woman from the CDC was but basically she said teachers didn’t need to be vaccinated for it to be safe for them to return.
yes this was it. I like that in the article the Press Sec walked the statement back. My wife being a teacher and having to daughters in school makes me overreact when it comes to people wanting to open up schools before we are 100% ready.
students at my school are generally good about masking up but they eat lunch in their classrooms, many of which don’t have windows. how is that safe?
Here's an article from a few months ago that explains it visually. Assuming masking, spacing, and ventilation, classrooms can be pretty safe, and teachers are more likely to be spreaders than recipients https://english.elpais.com/society/...N_ogNuoQr2yR7dVBgw6OekMr4OHQxkP5s0IszXiNlnvoA
It’s based off of a study completed January 26 and reflects the scientific consensus. That study is here: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2775875 and obviously reflects more than 6 days’ thought into the question. Obviously the big question is whether any particular school can actually operate in accordance with the CDC guidelines. But for those that can, the evidence doesn’t support closure and it would be inappropriate for CDC to advise otherwise.
I’m going to say this in this thread because while I don’t post here as much as before this was never the technical/professional one. Fuck that shit. I just read an article about a 9 year old kid passing away from Covid. His parents tested negative and believe the only place he could have gotten it was at school. So as illogical as I’ll sound i will say it. Until my wife and kids can get the vaccine fuck opening schools up. If there is a one in a billion chance that they can get sick and die from something preventable I’d rather not take that chance. I understand that’s illogical but that is how I feel. I don’t want to be in the place those parents of the nine year old are currently in.
As a parent I understand the feeling but it's not a very good risk calculation Children die in cars, pools, at home, from accidents and from communicable diseases. Tragic, and uncommon to the point it is seen as some offense against the natural order, but nonetheless there are dangers in the world. We take reasonable measures to reduce those risks; however, kids still ride in cars, cross streets, swim, play at home or in the yard, etc. And FWIW a vaccine won't completely protect your family either, it'll just reduce the risk
I have absolutely no judgment regarding your risk calculus and decision. My two year old has been in school (a small school that goes from preschool through 12th grade) since October and it’s something my wife and I wrangle over all the time with every bit of shitty news about this pandemic. At the same time, school closure has huge negative impacts to a lot of students and their families. Failing grades are up 85% at the largest school district in my area, and that’s after direction for exceedingly lenient grading policies, and the impact isn’t just on the students. So CDC can’t take a zero risk tolerance perspective on the issue, even when individual families can and should think about their own risk tolerances separate from the CDC guidance.
Preventing transmission in school settings will require addressing and reducing levels of transmission in the surrounding communities through policies to interrupt transmission (eg, restrictions on indoor dining at restaurants). this is where it falls apart imo
Any mention of day care facilities? We just had to put our 8 month old in day care and not too keen about it.
I’ve lost one child and almost lost another had a third in the hospital with what they thought was meningitis. I do everything I can to minimize my kids risks in everything I can. I don’t drink and drive. They wear seatbelts. My car has air bags on top of air bags. I don’t own guns. I taught them to swim etc so to me a vaccine is just another safety measure. One that will help me feel more comfortable with sending them back to school. Irrational yes but it’s how I feel. fwiw I feel this way for the reason I stated but I understand why some feel differently. This are just my irrational ramblings.
Yes and no. Clearly the safer the community, the safer the school is, and current policies are woefully inadequate at shutting off activities that do contribute to community spread with very little societal benefit (a perfect example being indoor dine-in service). But if opening schools - those that can do it following guidelines, at least - doesn’t actually impact community transmission rates, what is the benefit of closure, and how does that benefit weigh in light of the negative impacts?
Your own personal experiences are obviously affecting your risk assessment, which is understandable. Condolences, BTW. I've known a few families that have lost children and from the outside I can't fathom how painful it must be for all involved. I hope I die before any of my brats. You wrote that you read an article where a child died of a probable school-related covid exposure. One of the downsides of having so much information at our fingertips is that we tend to see bad stuff that happens far away, then extrapolate it to our own lives and inflate risks that are otherwise low and that we might not otherwise think about, and thus have our own perceptions/beliefs altered and maybe even cause us to change our behavior. One example is child abductions - they occur rarely, and the rate has declined over the years, but you'd never know it by the way the media covers the issue. Overall homicide rates are down by half over the last 30 years too, and there are still far too many, but national coverage makes us think that things are going to hell. Same with shark attacks, bat bites with rabies, peanut allergy deaths, etc. Anyway blah blah tl;dr semi-sensational coverage in the 24-hour news cycle might be a factor in your risk assessment, especially coupled with your personal experiences.
this is my thing. We are told there are strains at are more contagious and thus deadlier. We are told that the CDC death prediction has raised by about 40-50,000. These seem to be tucked up predictions. But, after I’m told those things I am also being told it’s okay for my wife and kids to return to school without vaccinations? Those things seem to contradict one another. I am just saying is make sure if you’re trying to open up schools do everything you can to make it safer and vaccines are one such thing.
FWIW I realize that and I am acknowledging that it’s illogical and irrational. Like I said vaccines are just a thing like a seatbelt (using your car accident example) that adds a level of protection. Schools should reopen but everything that can be done to make them as safe as possible should be done. I’m told how dire the situation is on one hand and on the other I’m told it’s okay to throw my wife and daughters in a Petri dish.
very few schools are equipped to follow guidelines with fidelity imo. for a lot of us good ventilation just doesn’t exist. kids have to eat so there are prolonged periods without masks. distancing can be problematic too. anecdotal but my hall neighbor has a 30 minute lunch period with 16 kids. she doesn’t have windows. her only ventilation is keeping her hallway door open and whatever broke ass hvac system a 20 year old school has. that’s a ticking time bomb. i think this discussion started with the assertion that vaccinating teachers isn’t a prerequisite to opening safely. i just don’t see it having lived this since October closures are negatively impacting a lot of kids- disproportionately marginalized kids, so I do get the sense of urgency.
FWIW I'd be more concerned that your wife and kids might be vectors of transmission to more at-risk people in the community because of their school interaction than I would be concerned about them being adversely affected by the virus itself, unless any of them has an underlying condition that might inflate their otherwise very low risk. In general, kids might end up bringing it home asymptomatically and unknowingly infect their grandparents
i think they should pause vaccinating any other groups indefinitely until they get through teachers. outside of that, dont open up schools
This also stands out: “In addition, all recommended mitigation measures in schools must continue: requiring universal face mask use, increasing physical distance by dedensifying classrooms and common areas, using hybrid attendance models when needed to limit the total number of contacts and prevent crowding, increasing room air ventilation, and expanding screening testing to rapidly identify and isolate asymptomatic infected individuals. Staff and students should continue to have options for online education, particularly those at increased risk of severe illness or death if infected with SARS-CoV-2.”
agree with your entire post, except for this, which I think is a function of bad headline clipping. CDC’s assessment incorporates adherence to the guidelines, which as you noted, lots of schools won’t be able to do.
i imagine a lot of teachers would refuse the vaccine anyway. lotta prolific facebookers in this profession. but at least some of us could get stuck
my youngest gets sick really easily. She is the one who the docs thought has meningitis. My oldest beat leukemia. They might be low risk but there is a risk and (for me) it’s not one worth taking.
Yes this is where my outrage came from. I just think everything that can be done to make it safer should be done.
adding to this- I’m more uncomfortable around a groups of colleagues than a group of middle schoolers.
hope you’re wrong and I can’t see you being right. But, that might have something to do with my wife being a teacher and me having faith in them because of her.
Georgia's been powering through and the schools have been open pretty much the entire year. And employers are making employees be in the office so good stuff going on. Government for the few.
Great job Zuck. When people like Sheryl Sandberg and other shithead executives are asked about qanon they also need to answer for letting anti-vax groups flourish. I think it's been discussed some but have there been legit efforts to reach out to minorities about the safety of the vaccine? Spurrier did a psa about getting it which I'm hoping will somewhat convince the idiots in this state that it's safe.
state super of edu just said 76000 of 120000 teachers/school staff would opt for the vaccine in SC 76000 is slightly under our weekly allotment of vaccines
I'm pretty sure that some pain killers are supposed to be avoided before either shot. Let's go to the experts pperc RonBurgundy