I don’t know how safe Rubio is in Florida. I think retaining it as a R seat is a safe bet, but don’t count out the possibility of him getting primaried. Despite him selling his soul to kiss Donald’s ass for four years, of all things the hard right of the party has decided to hate him because he is perceived as not having done enough to protect Trump. Irony is a bitch.
I think that depends upon whether Sununu runs. I think Hassan beats Ayotte again in a rematch. New Hampshire also is getting more blue over time, following the same trend across New England. Biden’s 7.5 margin was solid. Georgia will be a tough fight. Arizona should be fine. I hope Sandoval stays on the sidelines in NV.
I received more stimulus money from a republican senate and president than I will from a democratic one. Dems are an absolute fucking joke.
Who do the GOP have in Georgia to run against Warnock? Perdue already said he wasn’t and I can’t imagine Loeffler would run again.
There will be a line. Didn't Ag Com Gary Black throw his name out there? "Moderate" R with strong rural support.
I dunno about elsewhere, but here Donny T’s little census stunt might keep redistricting from happening before 2022 elections.
I think statewide in non prez years is still possible for Ohio, but in a way you need a candidate with a spine.
There are no good candidates in this state. The Democratic apparatus here is just broken. If Rubio can avoid being primaried he’ll walk to re-election. Like most R’s in this state. Until something drastic happens the only place you’ll see Dems elected will be the cities
Florida I believe. I’ve been borderline shocked to read about a lot of the incompetence and mismanagement post election.
Yeah, speaking anecdotally, in my discussions with the hard core Cuban Catholic GOP crowd Rubio is very unpopular right now. I just don’t know what other turd they could run against him. I’m assuming DeSantis holds out for a presidential run, but if he went for the Senate seat he would wipe the floor with Rubio. It’s gross.
I have no idea, but Georgia is going to be tough no matter who it will be. I certainly think Warnock can hold it, but 2020 also was the first time since the south shifted away from blue dog Democrats that a Democrat has won a Senate race there.
I don’t think he would at this point because it seems the national party is targeting him as Trump’s heir apparent. But if anything should happen to cause him to believe he won’t get the nod, the Senate seat is a good spot to get some Washington experience and beef up the resume. Hopefully, however, COVID-19 does us all one last favor and wipes both he and Rubio out.
He seems to have the level of sociopathy needed to replicate the Trump experiment. Same for Hawley and maybe Wheels.
I’m an optimist, but Eastern and SE Ohio have become impossibly red. When Stark (Canton) is going Trump +20 and Mahoning (Youngstown) goes red for the first time since 1972, it’s a nearly impossible problem. Traditional GOP strongholds in Columbus and Cincinnati are getting very blue, but it’s not enough yet to offset the traditional blue that is now deep red along the PA and WV borders. Tim Ryan has run his career in the Mahoning Valley and can play the Sherrod Brown race game plan, but it’s really tough with DeWine at the top of the R ticket. Hopefully Jane Timken wins the R nomination, because she’s nuts and has the type of arrogance that marrying into a wealthy family provides.
President one with a full year of a pandemic- $1800 President two with like 44 days handling a pandemic- $1400 Seems pretty rational to be angry
Really? I kinda assumed they sat side by side in the public office status hierarchy. Edit: I also think the past year taught us that governors are more “powerful” than we realized Unless I’m mistaken, Clinton, Bush 2, Reagan, Carter all elected POTUS as governors. JFK, Obama, elected straight from Senate. Nixon, Bush 1 had VP experience. LBJ in his own category, Ford obviously doesn’t count. I would think it’s to DeSantis’s benefit to stay the hell out of Washington. Was an interesting/noteworthy move to position himself as a hawk on China last week bc that will be an increasingly important metric in GOP primaries IMO. You don’t often see governors take stances on foreign policy issues like that IMO
Sununu wins going away and he is likely to run. His dad is a fucking lunatic and it pisses me off. They are going to rig the election rules so even if it is Ayotte, its tossup at best.
The only chance Dems have to turn things around in FL is to win back and message to South FL Hispanics. For as terrible a candidate Hillary was she understood this, be blunt and don't highlight 'but some good things were done' like Bernie did during that 60 Minutes interview. Gillum understood this too and did well in his messaging about Venezuela and Cuba and would get torched in replies by out of State Progressives. National Democrats in other States don't see the big deal but it makes that Venezuelan Immigrant with a Masters/Doctorate level education driving an Uber in Miami blood boil. They then tell their eligible voter social circle friends(Cubans, Nicas, Colombians, etc) and that's how you get the Biden Dade county bloodbath. The GOP successfully tied Biden to the Bernie/AOC wing and the dumb voters fall for it. A lot of single issue voters on Latin America Geo Politics. The quickest way for this turnaround is Maduro getting overthrown in the next 2 years and having Biden take credit for it
Agree. Most popular politician in Georgia right now. Same polls as Hillary. Harold Melton is most formidable the GOP can offer up. Collins would be interesting, but Trump is going to throw a fit if he is not the one to primary Kemp.
It depends somewhat on the state on the amount of power. In some states, the Lieutenant Governor carries more real power than the Governor. The Senate also has a much larger national profile. If nothing else, Senators have a better opportunity to run for president because of the length of the term.
lol, we're still blaming Bernie for Florida shifting right for 4 straight years? Bernie deserves 1/100th of the blame compared the limp-dick Democratic party apparatus in that state. There were several long twitter threads about how the Republicans didn't mind knocking on doors during a pandemic and completely out worked them in South Florida. And holy fuck at that grotesque last sentence, just go vote Republican if you believe that is in anyway justified after we've sanctioned them into starvation.
I am not saying the trade off is worth it but it's the only thing that will turn around Florida. Yes the FL DNC is a mess but the level of media influence from WhatsApp, AM Spanish language radio, Univision, etc in that Miami bubble is huge. They are hawkish on Venezuela policy.
Dems moves going forward should should be acting as if Ohio and Florida are solid Red States, because they are. Sure put in the leg work, but don't bank on winning anything of significance there in the next 6-10 years. They are trending the wrong direction.
One thing beerleagueman said that is accurate, however, is that the Cubans get too much of the blame for Biden’s slaughter in Miami-Dade. There is a huge Nicaraguan and Venezuelan contingent that is just as reactionary, and that unholy trio makes it difficult for a Dem to win when all a Republican has to do is call everything socialism and they start drooling like Pavlov dogs.
Ol' DC works at a law firm up my way now. I saw him in court on Friday and I think this is going to be the norm going forward. He's doing everything from misdemeanors to family law.