Anyone bet baseball on a regular basis? If so what do you look for? Pitching matchups, home field etc?
Opening Day Yankees Cleveland Milwaukee Pittsburgh Atlanta Cincinnati Colorado Miami KC SD White Sox Astros Seattle
No Runs Scored 1st Inning +391 NY/TOR CLE/DET MIN/MIL 1st Homer of 2021 Judge +1700 LeMahieu +2500 NY/TOR U7.5 SF/SEA U8.5
Similar question but does anyone have a good site for specific matchups and splits? I always find fangraphs hard to navigate. It’d be nice to find matchup history and splits for player props
Nothing like taking the Dodgers over because it is a game at altitude. And then getting to watch them bash the ball at Coors
I’m here with 2 people. Collectively, we bet on Seager, will Smith, and Muncy to hit a HR. They all have hit to the warning track tonight. No HRs tonight. Brutal
saw blazers +10.5 earlier and deposited a couple bucks. moved down to +8.5 in the process and still took it :| now on blazers +650
so oregon sportsbook offers these "either team by 1-5" bets. essentially you're getting a 10 point margin at a way better price than the spread, especially if it's like 3 points like this blazers-bucks game was. what's their angle here? i bet it only every once in awhile because i feel like i'm missing something obvious
is it a sucker bet? i don't quite understand how they can price something like, for example, bucks -3 vs the blazers at +180 for "either team by 1-5" obviously the bucks just crushed portland but that's just the most recent example in my head
i'm too poor and casual for them to matter for me, so unknown oregon's legal betting app sucks the biggest ass, so probably low. they don't allow same game parlays (ie spread and over) anymore presumably because they were getting killed on them. they also don't allow multiple ingame bets on the same thing, ie you get 1 live spread bet per game
It's a sucker bet like every bet is a sucker bet. The average margin of victory in the NBA is 12ish right now. That's why it's the way it is
But if it’s a spread that is -5 or less and it’s better than -110 it’s definitely a better deal. The thing is it’s probably $50 or less and it’s not like it’s 100% I’m sure it’s still profitable for them while giving edges here and there
why don't the spreads reflect this*? is it to suck money out of people like me? edit: *they don't seem much different from when i've looked for the past ~10 years. i don't keep records, though
I disagree, if it's -5 that means there's an 50% chance that the favorite wins by more than 5 but doesn't say anything about the underdog winning by more than 5. Of the remaining 50% there's a good chance the underdog wins by more than 5
Just ran some numbers and it seems like about 27% of games have margin of victory of 1-5 heading into this year. I'm guessing about 22-24% this year so +300 is probably fair value
i definitely would not have guessed that the median/average margin of victory would stay more or less constant as teams have gotten more and more aggressive about hunting 3s nfl spreads are so damn tight and there is all of this noise about how it's the hardest sport to bet on, but that data makes it seem like it's pretty similar in difficulty to the nba
Dennis Schroeder got pulled with 5 mins left :( But that might be my best score all year. I play single or 3 entry contests so payouts all look around the same amount of I entered others.
i only watch probably 40 blazer games a year at this point but there still seems to be some value in knowing the substitution patterns for a given team. and also just kind of how the team plays, how they go on runs, etc. obviously this requires a shitload of time investment if you're watching one team, let alone like a half-dozen and just anecdotally, the live spread algorithms in the last 5 years, particularly in the last 2ish, have gotten much sharper. i specifically remember an okc-clippers game from like 2015 where the game was tied going into the 4th, durant and westbrook didn't play, but the live spread was like okc +21. that type of thing just doesn't happen anymore :|
I've been messing with totals and that's way more successful for me. Agreed on the algorithms but they seem less sharp on o/u.
California is a progressive state with it's track record on marijuana laws, but is slow as fuck on the sports betting laws is so annoying. I've seen the Native American casinos pushing for on site only legislation at there places and I am negative nancy and see this happening.
I use these two sites mostly to get a feel for how I expect the game to develop http://www.espn.com/nba/hollinger/teamstats https://www.teamrankings.com/nba/stat/4th-quarter-points-per-game (just an example page, there are a ton of resources)
Went 0-3 in NHL (lol) but had minimal juice plus one + money. Thankfully that was offset by a parlay of Dodgers -1.5, Giants +105, White Sox +113 that paid +594. I rarely bet or hit parlays so that was nice.