He's what I would lean towards. Anything better than 2-1 is good value on him, and I think most likely that is what is going to occur given the betting trends.
Lol some friends who stayed until the last race somehow were invited to the after party with Belinda stronarch also Claudia from Gulfstream one of the nicest people I’ve ever met
Those say Danny Pish owns the horses. He's the trainer you use right? Does he just list the horse in his name, or is it just wrong on Equibase? What's your current stable?
Probably won't play much of the undercard tomorrow at Belmont - it is the least appealing Belmont Stakes undercard I've seen since they went to the new stakes schedule format, and I'll be working during the races anyways. But the Belmont itself should be a good race, and it is a much improved field from the Preakness. This isn't a race that I would try to get too creative with exotics - this sets up more as a straight win bet type of race given there are 5 major contenders, and 3 horses that appear to be up against it (I maintain that Overtook has a bright future, but thinking more late 2021 or 2022 for that to manifest itself, not this weekend). I could see a scenario where I bet any of the top five horses (with the possible exception of Hot Rod Charlie) depending on how the betting plays out. Here is my value line for the Belmont: 1. Bourbonic: 49-1 2. Essential Quality: 5-2 3. Rombauer: 5-1 4. Hot Rod Charlie: 6-1 5. France Go de Ina: 49-1 6. Known Agenda: 9-2 7. Rock Your World: 4-1 8. Overtook: 32-1 My guess is that I will most likely end up betting one of Rock Your World or Known Agenda. I think Essential Quality is the most likely winner, but I think he ends up going off at under 2-1 at the end of the day, which is just too short of a price for me in a field like this. If I had to make a pick now, it would be Rock Your World, as there isn't much speed to challenge him, and the Belmont is a race that I prefer to have horses forwardly placed. Pedigree suggests the added distance shouldn't be a problem, though I don't think the distance will get any of the top five beat outside of maybe Hot Rod Charlie.
For the Manhattan, I am intrigued by the 5 horse, Master Piece. It's a step up in class for him, but speed figure wise, he is as fast if not faster than anyone in the race. In his two American races, he has ran a 102 and 103 Beyer, compared to the favorites like Domestic Spending and Colonel Liam, who have topped out in the 99-100 range. And he has the same running style as Domestic Spending, from the same trainer in Chad Brown. I don't think he puts him in here if he doesn't think he has a real shot with him. He's currently 13-1, and while I figure he drops a bit from there, I don't see him being any lower that 8-1 or 10-1, and I am happy to take a shot with him at those odds.
Mandaloun is working his way to a 3YO of the year resume without actually finishing 1st in his races.
My harness horse won won on her 2nd time out. My other two owners wanted to sell i didn’t. 2 against one I lost.
Message from the people who board my mates/foals to my bloodstock guy yesterday. Apparently the practical joke filly I have is pretty nice
Also have a Practical Joke weanling, who is the sire of Wit who is probably the best two year old Wit and Double Thunder will probably face off in the Saratoga Special this weekend
If a race gets moved off turf, is it still raced at the same distance but on dirt? If not, is there a way to know the distance beforehand?
Better angle of what happened: I had forgotten that this had happened to Firenze Fire a couple years ago.
I'm a little interested in Cross Border (7) in the Sword Dancer, though I do think Tribhuvan (1) is the most likely winner. In the Travers, I don't know if I want to have a ton of money against Essential Quality (2), but Midnight Bourbon (1) may have a pace advantage in the race, and I don't think Dynamic One (4) is impossible either. I may just key Essential Quality in an exacta with those two, putting more weight on Essential Quality on top.
At some point, a price horse has to win today. The longest price to win so far today was 6-1, and the second longest price was 2.7-1.
That maiden winner from the 2nd race (Jack Christopher) is a runner, that's for sure. Pretty sprint heavy pedigree, though.
Oh well essential quality was most likely winner but if I’m betting 2-5 it needs to be better than that
I exacta boxed Essential Quality, Midnight Bourbon and Dynamic One and marginally lost money with the win. Haha