NHL Thread: Roy is War

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by CF3234, Sep 14, 2017.

  1. bro

    bro Your Mother’s Favorite Shitposter
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  2. Gunners

    Gunners Nicking a living
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    Watch the Caps and get 4 hours of sleep, sure why not
     
  3. Gunners

    Gunners Nicking a living
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    Could we please start this fucking game

    /talkingtomyself
     
  4. CF3234

    CF3234 Fan of: Bandwagons
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    :pray:
     
  5. CF3234

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  6. The Banks

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    Stars out here floppin
     
  7. Truman

    Truman Well-Known Member
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    Mizzou lost to UMKC last night. Blues losing to the Coyotes might be more embarrassing
     
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  8. DeToxRox

    DeToxRox Uncle T
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  9. DetroitNole

    DetroitNole Well-Known Member
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    Interesting that this happens mid game

     
  10. Corky Bucek

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    1000/1000 night for the Ducks: Ryan Getzlaf gets his 1000th points and then the Ducks get the franchise's 1000th victory
     
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  11. DeToxRox

    DeToxRox Uncle T
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    If Bertuzzi doesn’t test positive too, I quit
     
  12. zeberdee

    zeberdee wheel snipe celly boys
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    how are you testing guys in the morning and playing games that same day before you have results?
     
  13. DeToxRox

    DeToxRox Uncle T
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    It seems unwise, especially for the one team with the idiot holdout
     
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  14. teel

    teel Schiano Man
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  15. The Banks

    The Banks TMB's Alaskan
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    They need to test like 3 times a week right? And can’t test of players days off, so there’s only so many days available. Detroit was on a back to back so I could see it lining up where they had to test on one of the two days.
     
  16. miles

    miles All I know is my gut says, maybe
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    It's kind of funny they gave Zegras a 10 minute misconduct for this (That didn't matter, because the game was over) but the league is hyping the celebration all over social media today.

    More stick tosses after OT winners.
     
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  17. DeToxRox

    DeToxRox Uncle T
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    Every 72 hours
     
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  18. miles

    miles All I know is my gut says, maybe
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    Also Anaheim has won 8 in a row what is happening
     
  19. miles

    miles All I know is my gut says, maybe
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    Other random surprise: The only two worse offensive teams thus far in the season other than the Islanders are the Blackhawks and Coyotes.
     
  20. The Banks

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    True or False:

    Both McDavid and Draisaitl finish their careers top 10 in total points

    McDavid is about to turn 25 and has 603 points
    Draisaitl just turned 26 and has 539 points

    9th place (whom both would have to pass) is Joe Sakic with 1641 points

    Note: Ovie (1346) and Crosby (1326) could/should also be up there
     
  21. tigerbishop11

    tigerbishop11 call Tyrone
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    McDavid easily, Draisaitl I would guess not
     
  22. The Banks

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    The past 3 years Draisaitl is at 1.60 PPG, McDavid is at 1.71.

    Obviously he won’t keep up the pace in his early/mid 30s but in 10 years at 36 that would put him at 1851. So he has room for drop off plus he’d still have more years after that. And who knows, his production may increase from where he’s at for a few years. He’s at 2.2 this year.
     
  23. Bankz

    Bankz Well-Known Member
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    I need to apologize to Illinihockey because for years he’s said Jeremy was the worst coach in hockey and my reaction was to roll my eyes. But clearly he wasn’t wrong
     
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  24. Bankz

    Bankz Well-Known Member
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    Goodness at that save from MAF
     
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  25. soulfly

    soulfly Well-Known Member
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    Hello darkness my old friend.
     
  26. ohhaithur

    ohhaithur e-Batman
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    DeBrincat kicked Pumpkin's ass too

    I call Gourde Pumpkin and you should, too
     
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  27. soulfly

    soulfly Well-Known Member
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    I honestly should’ve known better. Seattle sports do be doing Seattle sports, though.
     
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  28. Gunners

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    My life is fucked up for many reasons following this game
     
  29. Gunners

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  30. miles

    miles All I know is my gut says, maybe
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    Grubauer owes Colorado's defense a lot of money
     
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  31. IHHH

    IHHH Well-Known Member
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    it’s a bit premature for panicking my friend. Vegas was not normal.

    you can also go back to the canucks but not sure they are doing any better
     
  32. The Banks

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    Never understood the Grubauer hype
     
  33. CF3234

    CF3234 Fan of: Bandwagons
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    There may not be a team in worse shape than the canucks. It's between them and Chicago imo.
     
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  34. ohhaithur

    ohhaithur e-Batman
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    I'm very pro-analytics but how is this possibly an 11% chance of a goal?

     
  35. Truman

    Truman Well-Known Member
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    The angle. Closer to the redline, the more the Shooting % goes down.
     
  36. ohhaithur

    ohhaithur e-Batman
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    upload_2021-11-18_9-21-46.png

    One of the best goal scorers in history just chilling with the puck 20 feet out and having a pass available to him while three defenders watch: 0.08 expected goals (Kane had another shot too so it's even less than that)
     
  37. ohhaithur

    ohhaithur e-Batman
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    That has to be considered an overwhelming flaw in the xG system. There's no goalie in the world that saves that sequence, he was left out to dry
     
  38. miles

    miles All I know is my gut says, maybe
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    The fact that the goalie is massively out of position doesn't factor in. It's basically just a high danger chance shooting percentage*(1-the chance that he misses the net) + or - a little proprietary blend of math.
     
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  39. The Banks

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    I wouldn’t say a pass is available to him. Seattle has the pass covered and the goalie is 100% committed to Kane. 1 in 10 of scoring there seems about right
     
  40. The Banks

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    Likelihood of missing the net goes up though
     
  41. ohhaithur

    ohhaithur e-Batman
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    Right, but "can't buy a save" is ridiculous to describe yesterday. All four goals yesterday involve a Blackhawk with nobody between him and the net.

    Jones: Basically an empty-netter thanks to a defensive lapse
    Kane: Clean look as shown above
    Cat: One-on-one breakaway behind a defender
    Empty Netter

    Seattle's defense was abysmal yesterday. And so was their offense in the first period
     
  42. CF3234

    CF3234 Fan of: Bandwagons
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    It is the flaw in xG. It's not adjusted based on the shooter and does miss things like this perfect passing play. Overall, it's one of the better predictive measures of who "should" win a game, but it still has its flaws. This is one of them.
     
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  43. ohhaithur

    ohhaithur e-Batman
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    So then how can you use that to judge a goalie?
     
  44. miles

    miles All I know is my gut says, maybe
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    FWIW some models have started adjusting for shooting talent.

    I don't know if this one does tbh.
     
  45. miles

    miles All I know is my gut says, maybe
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    FWIW I don't think xG are much more than an interesting note when viewed in a one game sample. It's only over a large sample size when you can start to draw any conclusions from them.

    I was really just using it as an example that Grubauer has been total ass this year. (He leads the league in goals allowed above expected)
     
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  46. The Banks

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    He way over-committed would be my only argument. It was a great 1-2-3 by the offense.
     
  47. IHHH

    IHHH Well-Known Member
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    i know, that was the joke.
     
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  48. The Banks

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    NHL goalie should save that Kane opportunity 19/20 times. (Just based on the still frame)
     
  49. Illinihockey

    Illinihockey Well-Known Member
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    I think hockey metrics are still very crude and I’m not sure if there’s a great way to refine them. It’s not like baseball or even basketball. I think they are especially not useful in very small sample sizes (like single game xG)
     
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  50. ohhaithur

    ohhaithur e-Batman
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    I don't have any metrics to back it up but I can guarantee you that Kane is scoring more than 5% of the time when he gets to play with the puck before shooting 20 feet out