Was thinking we might get to 3700ish if BTC fell to the 52-53k range but idk if we get there anymore either
Got a good chuckle out of this. Who could’ve seen this coming?!?!? Hillary being afraid is fun too. Yes it will undermine currencies and the dollar; glad she understands.
my overall point is still right babe, even if inflation has been a little hot it's a global issue unrelated to what the crypto worlds argument was for why the alternative scenario is also much worse, especially seeing how the US economy has rebounded comparitively
Inflation is unrelated to the rapid expansion of central bank balance sheets, which is the crypto world’s argument. If you actually believe that, then you’re in for a hell of a next 10+ years.
And? Perhaps we should define “unrelated.” Because every non-dipshit macro investor thinks you’re 100% wrong.
you know theres lots of analysis of this, like it's very easy to look up the historical relationship both US and globally regarding it and it's relationship with inflation just one example! https://libertystreeteconomics.newy...f-central-bank-asset-purchases-and-inflation/
The Economist claiming nobody saw inflation coming is reminiscent of our intelligence agencies and law enforcement claiming that January 6th was unforeseeable.
Lol. You know there’s lots of analysis of this that reaches the complete opposite conclusion! Also I got to “didn’t reach inflation targets” and stopped. Inflation shows up in a whole hell of a lot of places that aren’t some random dumb manipulated basket of goods. Better hope you never want to buy a house, own equity, buy cars, go to school, or own countless other assets that seem to have quite the correlation to central bank money printing. It’s also hilarious that you linked a report from the fucking NY Fed. Central bankers deny effect of central banking actions! More at 11! For as often as you like to dismiss anything from anyone remotely connected to btc, well pot/kettle.
im glad you did your normal "you can't measure inflation anyways!" swerve. nostalgia at all time highs.
we just spent a decade testing the monetarist theory of inflation about as directly as you can, it was already discredited but now everyone has moved past it except for the crypto sphere ideology that requires it to be true https://www.investopedia.com/articl...t-quantitative-easing-lead-hyperinflation.asp
Some stuff you won't read: https://www.lynalden.com/money-printing/ https://www.lynalden.com/inflation/ https://seekingalpha.com/article/4345426-paul-tudor-jones-compelling-case-for-owning-bitcoin Alden, PTJ, Dalio, Druckenmiller (the list is endless really) have all made very public comments about central bank actions driving asset inflation. Dismissing their arguments as gold bugs is quite funny.
What'd bitcoin do during that 10 year period? How about real estate? Education? SP500? Nasdaq? Ya know, the stuff people might actually want to buy.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/11/sta...gering-the-dollars-global-reserve-status.html “If they want to do all this and risk our reserve currency status, risk an asset bubble blowing up, so be it. But I think we ought to at least have a conversation about it,” Druckenmiller said. “If we’re going to monetize our debt and we’re going to enable more and more of this spending, that’s why I’m worried now for the first time that within 15 years we lose reserve currency status and of course all the unbelievable benefits that have accrued with it,” he added. “I can’t find any period in history where monetary and fiscal policy were this out of step with the economic circumstances, not one,” Druckenmiller said during a”Squawk Box” interview. Druckenmiller told CNBC he has “no doubt whatsoever that we are in a raging mania in all assets.”
the Alden stuff you've shared before and it's not remotely coercive reading the PTJ slideshow and he starts quoting Friedman, so again, these are just monetarists which is fine we don't have to pretend otherwise or get defensive when I point this out
Oh man PTJ quoted Friedman! You got me. That definitely makes him and every other multibillionaire asset manager wrong about the underlying thesis. Here's a thread listing roughly a million assets that have gone up at higher rates than the SP. So sure, there's no inflation if you ever want to actually buy anything. You're right. We can move on.
never said the bold fwiw, just that the monetarist explanation (as co-opted by the BTC people) is not remotely accurate
that thread is lit though, i can't explain how little i care about luxury inflation as it explains for sports team costs or old rare ferraris. haralabob did this same spiel where he cried about ultra high end art prices. it IS a great argument to increase progressive taxation dramatically though, then the .001%'ers won't see such spikes when it comes time to buy the family a MLB franchise
You linked a paper by the NY Fed saying they can't hit inflation targets, clearly implying inflation is super low and they can't hit it despite all their money printing. It takes some true mental gymnastics to think central banks' actions are "unrelated" (again your word, having no relation) to the ridiculous increases in asset prices.
I wouldn’t worry too much over the dollar losing its reserve currency status. All the possible alternatives are experiencing their own existential crises’.
the central banks lever regarding inflation is interest rate changes and the requisite unemployment it causes, not "money printing" the bold is you doing a great jump to conclusions though, not remotely true! just that they're un correlated measures.
And this is where you lose the argument and resort to your politics. It's not "luxury inflation." Inflation shows up in assets that rich people have/own that can actually keep pace with the monetary expansion. SP500? Yep. Tech stocks? Yep. Real estate? Yep. Art? Yep. Luxury items? Yep. And who doesn't own any of that stuff? The lower/middle class who live paycheck to paycheck with no assets to actually keep pace with inflation. So uhhhh cool if your solution is more taxes. But maybe start by acknowledging the initial cause.
Yes my politics (and ideology) do come into play same as yours. If the outsized growth is tied to rich people assets in our economic environment where real wages are rising for the lower half of the economic strata the solution to me is increasing taxation on the wealthy who see passive wealth growth outpacing even the real wage growth, but the overall net benefit to the economy is positive as we're the only country in the OECD with gdp growth outpacing pre-pandemic levels and have seen a rapid rebound in employment. Easy correction to make!
the alternative is continuing wage stagnation for the bottom half, higher levels of unemployment, below par GDP growth, on and on. that's a bad alternative!
Let’s just find common ground in agreeing that almost everyone is fucked. Good thing I’m #Blessed and have my nest egg in a JPEG of a cartoon monkey to fall back on.
Did I miss something or is this you acknowledging that central banks' actions are "related" to some asset price inflation? That's my argument. I'm not even advocating for the "alternative" because I don't think central banks really have any alternative (nor do i care to advocate for any position; I only care about what I think will happen). I've said this before and will repeat it now: I think it's mathematically impossible for GDP to grow in a way that satisfies outstanding debt and entitlements (medicare, pensions, etc.). Their only option is to inflate. Hiking interest rates in any material way will be short-lived, a mess in the markets, and politically unpopular. So I position myself accordingly. But I don't ignore what I consider to be the fact that QE or "money printing" is responsible for driving various assets much higher.
low rates in a booming economy leads to high returns on investment in stocks, yes. this exacerbates inequality based on what you said regarding who owns what. like 1/3rd or less of our current inflation is related to this necessary action. it is a necessary component to get the recovering economy to full employment which has enormous benefits to the labor class as tight labor markets lead to real wage growth. this is pretty much the consensus view of modern economists. the QE aspect is largely if not completely irrelevant. the debt hawkishness rhetoric is just more of the goldbug/monetarist nonsense.
if the biggest fear of this form of inflation fear mongering is my 50k watch now costs 60k literally no one cares
Again, this is you reducing it to some rich person problem when it's decidedly not. Even your beloved CPI just hit like 30+ year highs. Does literally anyone care about ever being able to afford a house? Do any of these fall outside of your $50k watch hypothetical?
Housing prices are inflated due to regulatory capture of the capacity to build and deny increased density. This is simple stuff. Fed ain't able to deal with that. Also, poor goldbugs.
Your theme in explaining away inflation is to blame it on literally anything but more money flowing into the system, leading to increased demand for a limited supply of goods/assets. Supply chains, regulatory capture of housing, etc. I could argue that Rolex watches cost more because there's a steel shortage. True enough in part. Just the same with your offered explanations. But I don't ignore that the fed contributes across the board.
I hope you guys bought at 4k. You'd already be seeing 6% gains. I didn't add anymore. I'm not as bullish as I was, which means that we're headed to 100k BTC and 10k ETH in the next couple months.
Perth Heat has 4 players with wiki pages; who the fuck is their “Chief Bitcoin Officer”? Oh. Never mind. It’s this guy: http://www.patrickosullivandp.com/tvc-perth-heat at giving a shit what he has to say on the matter of Bitcoin’s future.
Lol. You should try to be more upset about this story. But since you insist on being a jackass about it.... they've been around since like 1989 and are affiliated with the Rays: “The partnership between the Perth Heat and the Tampa Bay Rays has become an incredibly valuable piece of our development system,” Tampa Bay Rays Director of Minor League Operations Jeff McLerran said. “Perth has become a true home away from home for our players and staff.” Liam Hendricks from the White Sox is an alum, and they've sent plenty of players to the MLB https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Major_League_Baseball_players_who_played_in_Australia). They're the most successful team in the country: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Perth_Heat Oh and they created a Chief Bitcoin Officer as part of their adoption of a bitcoin standard (duh). I don't give a shit what he says about btc's future (project much?), but you'd probably learn something by listening to the CEO and the CBO talk, so here: https://stephanlivera.com/episode/322/ In other news, Commonwealth Bank, Australia's largest bank serving 6.5 million people, will allow customers to buy/sell/hold btc starting next year. And here's a quote from the CEO that might upset you too: "We see risks in participating, but we see bigger risks in not participating,” Comyn said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in Sydney." Links: -https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-11-18/biggest-risk-of-crypto-is-missing-out-warns-top-aussie-banker -https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/australias-largest-bank-to-integrate-bitcoin-services-in-app-2021-11-02 -https://fortune.com/2021/11/18/commonwealth-bank-australia-ceo-matt-comyn-crypto-market-risk-investment/
I wanted to figure out salaries. It’s pretty murky. So went to the team wiki. I don’t care that anyone came through to MLB or that there’s a Rays partnership. It’s hilarious that there’s now a “CBO” and he’s basically been their social media handler.
Cool. A business implementing a btc standard might need someone to handle that aspect of the business (wild thought I know), but keep making whatever point you're trying to make about the news. This is eerily similar to the restaurant in Canada a year+ ago moving to a btc standard (when the price was like $16k) and a few people itt being super dismissive. Maybe recognize it for the obvious broader global trend that it is, instead of doing the whole "it's just a small business! It's just a small country! It's just a small baseball team! It's just a small public company!" thing.
boys let’s talk about what’s important here, my portfolio took a hit this week and I’m still not rich. wtf
Look at the math. Put $100 using 100x leverage on a low or mid cap. If it doubles, you get 20k. If it goes down, you only lose your $100. Imagine being in crypto and not being retired yet lmao