I've learned a lot over the last year by listening to Jason Beem's horse player Thursday podcasts. He talks about wagering strategies and ticket construction with a different experienced handicapper each Thursday. Plenty of episodes in the archives. Including one with a TMBer if you look back far enough.
Was going to dig more into it this evening. Pretty sure I'll end up on either Essential Quality or Hot Rod Charlie in the Classic, though.
i have never made a dime betting the breeders cup. probably sitting it out. better at $5k beaten claimers.
Thoughts and picks for Breeders Cup Friday... Race 6: Juvenile Turf Sprint - This race seems like it will be pure chaos to me, as I don't really like any of the favorites. I do think this is one of the better group of European horses for this race that I've seen, but even there, I prefer some of the longer priced horses to Armor (7), who is probably the shortest price among the Euros. Twilight Jet (1) will be my top pick, but I could make reasonable arguments for horses like Go Bears Go (3) and Hierarchy (5) among the Euros while horses like Derrynane (11) and Run Curtis Run (12) are the horses that interest me amongst the Americans. All five of those horses are double digits on the morning line. Juvenile Turf Sprint picks: 1. Twilight Jet (1) 15-1 2. Go Bears Go (3) 15-1 3. Run Curtis Run (12) 20-1 Race 7: Juvenile Fillies - It's being billed as a 3 horse race, but even then, I feel like Echo Zulu (6) is a cut above Juju's Map (5) and Hidden Connection (2). If you told me to take a second, I prefer Juju's Map to Hidden Connection. If I was playing the pick 4 that starts with this race, maybe I use Juju's Map as well, but I plan to play the pick 5 that starts the prior race (and will be going 5 deep there), I will try to get through with just Echo Zulu. Juvenile Fillies picks: 1. Echo Zulu (6) 4-5 2. Juju's Map (5) 5-2 3. Hidden Connection (2) 5-2 Race 8: Juvenile Fillies Turf - This seems like the other race that is fairly wide open to me, but I do lean mostly towards the European horses. The two I like the most are Mise En Scene (13) and Hello You (6), and I lean towards the former being the most likely winner in the field. Don't love the draw for her, but I think it can be overcome. I think Malavath (12) is usable as well and I will use her, though I prefer those other two Euros and one of the American horses more than her, so if you didn't want to go 4 deep, she would be the one I would cut. The American horse that interests me is Koala Princess (9). I really like the turn of foot she showed last time out at Kentucky Downs. Juvenile Fillies Turf picks: 1. Mise En Scene (13) 6-1 2. Hello You (6) 10-1 3. Koala Princess (9) 6-1 Race 9: Juvenile - The Champagne was the clear best prep race to me, and the two coming from that race - Jack Christopher (1) and Commandperformance (10) - are the ones I want. Jack Christopher has been phenomenal, and just may be too good for the rest of this field. Frankly, he's been one of the best looking 2YO's in recent years. But he's going to be a very short price (think he'll end up closer to even than his 9-5 morning line), and I'm not wild about taking him at that short price when I do have questions about going longer in distance. His pedigree leans heavily towards sprinting. I'm still using him heavily in multis, but I'll take a small shot against him with Commandperformance. He was finishing well in the Champagne, even if he didn't truly threaten Jack Christopher, and he should improve going two turns. As for the others, Corniche (12) will just have to beat me. Just not enthused with him. The two price horses that could be useful underneath are Oviatt Class (3) and Barossa (8). Juvenile picks: 1. Commandperformance (10) 5-1 2. Jack Christopher (1) 9-5 3. Oviatt Class (3) 20-1 Race 10: Juvenile Turf - The morning line would suggest that this is a wide open race, as the shortest priced horse in the field (Dubawi Legend (14)) is only 4-1, and seven horses of the 14 horse field are single digits on the morning line. But I like Modern Games (1) here, and he is going to be a horse I single. I really liked his win in the Somerville Stakes against a nice horse in Trident last time out, and Charlie Appleby has been on a roll with the horses he has brought over to the States this year. I get why Dubawi Legend will be favored off of his second in the Dewhurst behind Native Trail (who I would regard is the top 2YO in Europe), but he never really threatened Native Trail in that spot, and from talk I've heard coming from Europe, he is still a bit immature. There is also a little bit of a question regarding whether he prefers a firm turf track or not, as his best runs have had a lot of give in the ground. As the favorite, he's a horse I'd be looking to beat, knowing that he may end up the best in this field down the road. I picked Albahr (2) second and Tiz the Bomb (4) third, but I'm just going to go with a win bet on Modern Games. Albahr is the other Appleby in the field, and has shipped to North America to win the Summer Stakes at Woodbine, but he still seems to be regarded as the second string horse. Juvenile Turf picks: 1. Modern Games (1) 5-1 2. Albahr (2) 6-1 3. Tiz the Bomb (4) 8-1 Pick 5 play: Race 6: 1, 3, 5, 11, 12 Race 7: 6 Race 8: 6, 9, 12, 13 Race 9: 1, 10 Race 10: 1
I'm content with taking 13-1 on Twilight Jet. I get Averly Jane being the favorite. I don't get her being bet so far ahead of the rest of the field at 8-5.
Was hoping one of Hierarchy, Go Bears Go, or Derrynane could have got there by the wire when I saw that Twilight Jet wasn't going to be a factor. But none of them ever looked like they truly were going to threaten the winner.
Not going to do any single race betting here. I think Echo Zulu wins, but she is not the type of favorite I want to bet at 3-5 or 4-5. I'll take a shot connecting her in doubles with the 6, 12, and 13 in the next race.
I don't mind him, but he certainly has a bit of a reputation as being the Midwest Baffert, for better or worse.
Both Mise En Scene (13) and Hello You (6) look appealing at their prices. I prefer the former and that will be my play, but both are playable. I like Koala Princess (9) the most of the American-based horses, but when she is being listed at 3-1 or 7-2, I'll pass on that.
That was crazy. Had a Pick 4 that won the first 3 but had 1&2 only for the last race. What happens? Looking like I lose since the Pick 4 was paid out with 4 winning the last race.
You would have been assigned the favorite in the race (which would have been the 3 horse). Anyone that had Modern Games in a Pick 3/4/5 like yourself just had an awful beat. The 4 is being treated as the winner for all bets.
Since I wasn't alive in the multi race bets, I ended up lucking out. I initially bet the 1 to win, but when he was 'scratched' and the 2 (my second choice) was legitimately scratched, I ended up just doing a win bet with my third horse, which happened to be the 4.
Unfortunate, but thanks for the info. Also appreciate your write-ups in this thread. Usually throw a few bucks on races when you post.
Some thoughts for tomorrow. I know I'll miss the first couple Breeders Cup races, so I didn't bother handicapping them. But starting with Race 7: Race 7: Filly and Mare Turf - Not a race I have a strong opinion on, though I don't think all that highly of the American group of horses. I landed on Acanella (3) as I think she'll be the best price of the horses I am looking at, but I would consider Love (6), Loves Only You (8), and Audarya (12) as well. All four of those horses I would use in multi-race wagers. If Love can get back to the form she was in earlier this year, I think she wins, but her past couple starts have been just okay. 1. Acanella (3) 12-1 2. Love (6) 4-1 3. Loves Only You (8) 4-1 Race 8: Sprint - Jackie's Warrior (2) is the best sprinter in the country, and I expect him to show it here. He'd be a single for me. From a single race standpoint, maybe you try to connect him with either Following Sea (1) or Aloha West (5) in an exacta? 1. Jackie's Warrior (2) 6-5 2. Following Sea (1) 6-1 3. Aloha West (5) 8-1 Race 9: Mile - Another race that looks wide open, and will be a spread race for me. I will use a couple of the American horses here in Smooth Like Strait (2) and Hit the Road (8), though I do prefer the former of the two. I also think the two Appleby runners should be used - Master of the Seas (1) and Space Blues (3) - as well as the O'Brien horse in Mother Earth (9). Space Blues is likely your favorite, and it is deserved, but I think he'll be a bit too short for me to take. I'll go with the other Appleby horse for my tepid top pick. But all five of the listed horses I think should be considered in multi-race bets. 1. Master of the Seas (1) 12-1 2. Space Blues (3) 3-1 3. Smooth Like Strait (2) 10-1 Race 10: Distaff - Letruska (6) is the headliner, and she deserves to be the favorite off of the year she has had. But I want to try and beat her, as she wants to be forwardly placed, and she will have to battle with Horologist (7) and maybe Private Mission (1) up on the front end. I think that could soften her up a bit. I don't love Malathaat (3) to be the one to take advantage. She's been good as a 3YO, but she hasn't gotten much faster later in her season compared to when she ran in the Oaks, and I think she needs to take a step forward here if she wants to win. If either Letruska or Malathaat wins, I'll lose. The two that interest me are Royal Flag (2) and Shedaresthedevil (8), and I'll go with Royal Flag as the top pick as I think the pace setup will be more beneficial to her, and I think she'll be the better price (though I have seen enough hype on her where I don't expect to see her go off at her 8-1 morning line). 1. Royal Flag (2) 8-1 2. Shedaresthedevil (8) 4-1 3. Letruska (6) 8-5 Race 11: Turf - I like the two Euros near the outside here - Teona (12) and Tarnawa (13). Tarnawa is the most likely winner in the field and I'd be shocked if she didn't show up with a strong effort. Teona is more of a high ceiling, low floor type of horse, but Teona at her best is very capable of winning this race. I think she's the more interesting win bet of the two, and thus she'll be my top pick. That said, Teona is not a horse I'm looking to get involved in exotics with, as she has 'first or off the board' written all over her. Walton Street (7) is somewhat interesting, but I think he would need both of those other two to show up with a 'B' effort for him to win, and I struggle to see that happening with Tarnawa. 1. Teona (12) 6-1 2. Tarnawa (13) 9-5 3. Walton Street (7) 8-1 Race 12: Classic - If Knicks Go (5) wins, I am going to lose. At a short price, he needs to prove to me that he can handle 1 1/4 miles and that he can handle serious pace pressure that he will receive from Medina Spirit (8). I think those two may duel each other into submission. That leaves the other two logical horses to benefit in Essential Quality (4) and Hot Rod Charlie (3), though even Hot Rod Charlie may be closer to those pace setters than preferable. I like Essential Quality to win, as he is the most versatile horse of the group, and seems to do enough to win almost every time. If he doesn't need to run a fast race, he won't, but if he gets a serious horse to push him (like Hot Rod Charlie in the Belmont), he seems to step it up. He'll run as fast as he needs to to win the race, and typically won't go much beyond that. I think Max Player (9) is interesting underneath, but I don't think he's fast enough to win the race. The only horses I will treat as my win contenders will be my top two. 1. Essential Quality (4) 3-1 2. Hot Rod Charlie (3) 4-1 3. Max Player (9) 8-1
Sounds like this filly is finally ready to start. Has been working bullets. Either at delta or fair grounds for Tom Amoss I picked her out of the OBS two year old sale with the help of my bloodstock guy. I haven’t been this excited ever.
Sounds like the plan is to move the filly to Fairgrounds, have her work in company with one of Amoss better two year olds and then make the call on whether to start at FG or DD. He said she has been beating up on the horses she’s worked with at Indiana grand and delta.
Bourn in the 5th race at delta this afternoon--decided to avoid any cox/assman monsters at FG for first start
i don't--i went last year and bought on stubhub like 3 days before the derby. got millionaires row seats for i think 1200 each. worth it
Nicely done. I saw the Remsen and bet on the winner there, but that was the only race I had the chance to see. Looks like the stakes races were full of chalk, so assuming you made your big moves earlier in the card? I liked what I saw from the top two in that Remsen. The clock wasn't fast, but you can get some real slow times at Aqueduct this time of year - I think the difference between the top two and the rest of the field was more telling of what kind of race it was.
I hit 3 win bets $2k (all in) on Script in the first that paid $8.90 $6k on Nest and $2k on Americanrecoltuon Only reason I signed up for the contest was because I loved script so much
Actually $46,800 I already have an NHC seat so I’m going to take the $10,000Belmont betting challenge entry