Just for clarification here, how far out are you looking geographically when you say "around Denver"?
In this scenario though, 1 year later, same holdings are held but they are now losing money to their initial position. So they paid taxes on unrealized gains, would they now get this money refunded? I’m sure I know the answer and this is where I have a hard time buying into this policy.
What people are calling a wealth tax is really just a flavor of mark to market taxation. Mark to market is not a new idea. While I don’t have an answer to your question off the top of my head, these are issues that have been resolved and often in a fair manner (despite the implication of your post). Former representative David Camp (R-MI) even floated mark market to taxation on derivatives about a decade ago. I believe his proposal was annual recognition of gains and losses based on market price.
This is a fascinating thread and again I’m just perplexed by people who are perfectly ok with other people not being able to do what should be simple things … like buying a home… because of some sort of income gap issue without any self awareness to how ridiculous it all is. like to too many people it’s outrageous people want to….live and work. Man what a crazy woke ass concept
Not sure what you're getting on about, but my only contribution was to propose that they be taxed if the underlying asset was pledged as collateral. In that case, there would be cash available to pay the tax.
If only it were that simple. It's hard to believe anyone in here is excited that people can't purchase a home. The problem is that it's an incredibly complex fix that's going to create winners and losers. You see a lot of critiques about NIMBYs on here, but in my city there are entire dilapidated blocks where residents are protesting new housing projects because of concerns of gentrification.
lol, we have some of that here in Nashville as well. My favorite people are the ones that want a developer to demo an old house, rebuild as a small 1200sq/ft SFH and sell it for under $200K to keep the “neighborhood together.”
This is a cool program, but I can’t believe they only built a SFH vs. a duplex or HPR. Same lot size as other HPR’s on the same street. https://www.newschannel5.com/news/nashvilles-first-community-land-trust-home-is-completed
I live in Sarasota, and it’s apeshit here. bought my house around five years ago, and my neighborhood is at least twice as expensive now. It’s wild.
Yeah Sarasota seems like the last place in Sarasota County that would be under the radar from a real estate perspective
It’s growing exponentially at this point, and there’s something new opening all the time. Pretty fortunate to buy when I did. But yeah, the surrounding cities are all really hot now too - north port, nokomis, englewood, Osprey.
Colorado is the only non-coastal state I could imagine living in. I’m not cut out for what Bo Pelinis is talking about, but not because of the weather or anything like that; I legit can’t live in a flat place.
Yeah, I’m never gonna make it out of the rent cycle. https://fox5sandiego.com/news/business/san-diego-now-5th-most-expensive-rental-city-in-us-report/
Sure hope those homebuilders who cancelled people's contracts to sell higher don't get stuck with the bag! My BIL had a hell of a time selling his place in the last month. Had to do two price reductions on a 5 year old house that's in good shape.
I put an offer (close to $30k over list price) in on a 3 bedroom, 2.5 bath house on Saturday morning. The seller's realtor was calling around yesterday to let people know they had an offer for $80k over the list price plus waiving inspection/appraisal, and asking others if they wanted to match or submit a new offer. This morning, the same house was re-listed, but at $45k over the original list price.
I am curious how large of an impact the rising mortgage rates are going to have on home sales. We have already seen a significant cooling off here in Texas and I anticipate the increased supply coming to further depress raising home prices.
Yea quite a bit of new construction is scheduled to come online shortly and multifamily permits are moving. Lumber prices are cratering making new home construction more profitable. Add to that an expected % of new construction customers under contract with low earnest money commitments who budgeted for their house at 4% mortgage rate, when it may be closer to double that. In those cases I expect buyers to surrender earnest money and walk away from those homes freeing up even more supply. This could get bloody.
That may be a Texas/hot market anomaly… a lot of builders I know hedged/just stopped building. I don’t think they’re going to risk on just bc lumber is cheap when gas is $5/gal, the economy is in limbo, etc. I think low inventory will continue to be an issue, keep prices fairly steady in most markets. “Bloody” would likely be an effect of a greater economic pullback, in which case buyers and sellers could likely both be “distressed”.
i'd be shocked if we saw any substantial decline in prices just slowing gains closer to historical averages
Things seem to be selling pretty fast still in the city, but none of that is really new construction. I've always wondered if dfw is a different dynamic since a decent chunk of folks seem to be paying cash, but it will be interesting to see play out
A couple friends in real estate have said the signals in the DFW market are already happening. We were looking to buy and in May we started seeing houses with prices reduced in an attempt to sell now. Home sales slowed significantly in May which is part of why RedFin just laid off 8% of their staff. I talked to one guy today who said rates are pricing buyers out of the market.
I mean even if a house that should have sold for 500k went for 600 at the bottom of rates to today you end up paying more per month now if it falls all the way back down. And many people still have the elevated price in their head I know that isn’t rocket science to a single person in that thread but damn explaining it to some in person has been tough
We hit a 22 year low for mortgage demand this week fwiw. Not as many people are going to be selling their home they have a 2.875% to buy a new home at 5.5%. Some, sure, but that's a huge increase and severely takes the shine off the idea of moving. So that takes homes that would normally be on the market off the market, lowering supply, but you also have lower demand. Weird spot for the market.
I think the problem with your example is it’s scope. We saw houses selling for 200-300k over asking price and at the moment very few people are expecting rates to settle at 6 and stop rising. Some are saying rates could hit 7-8%. What we saw the past 12 months was simple economics, high demand with very limited supply. With rates rising, demand is going to slow; and with more supply coming online, that’s going to send prices the other direction, meaning a pull back from peaks. I doubt it’s huge but I bet it’s noticeable.
I’m sure different parts of the country are hit differently. But I know a bunch of people who moved from their first house to second that still wouldn’t be “forever home.” Well now they are going to be staying in that house for a lot longer because of rates, which then shrinks the amount of houses available to jump into the next bracket. If you are planning on paying cash for your next house then it will be just fine. All others is gonna be a wild ride and I’m not liking the side of it I’m going to be on
Absolutely, people buy based on their payments and the massive increase in mortgage payments is going to cool the market. And that’s a month old I think it’s an over 42% increase now.
1/3 of homes sold over the last year went to investors and they are less rate sensitive bc it's just a business cost to them and they roll it into the rent. So many people priced out of buying have to rent so that market is still strong. I wouldn't be surprised to see the % of sales going to investors increase over the next year.
I bought a condo in the Kansas City area a month ago. At the time I bought it, there were thirteen condos on the market in KCMO and literally all the surrounding suburbs. The housing market is so barren/absurd it seems that many moved toward condos as a replacement and now that’s about empty too.
As a renter for at least the next ~2 years, your last point is my concern. So long as people are forced to rent, investors can continue to raise rent at renewal.
I see supply side issues continue. Lots off ppl aren't going to sell as Dbl alluded to bc their rates would go up 2pts. Harder to upgrade
Got an unsolicited text yesterday from a “local real estate investment company” asking if I want to sell my house
I get these daily. Some asking if I’m interested in selling my “vacant land.” I never even had vacant land; built a home with a builder in a planned community where I bought the land with the build. Those texts are bullshit.
I agree there will be less people upgrading or moving for convenience, however these conditions won’t impact people who are relocated, evictions, and other home sales. Back when rates were last in the 5-6 range in the early 2000’s people were still buying homes, as i worked for a home builder at the time. It’s all a bit relative. My guess is we see buyers stop the overpayment process that has been so dominant for the past 6 months.
People in the early 2000s didn't have a current home locked in at 3% so sure they were still selling to buy a new one. Moving from 5% on house A to 5% on house B is way different than going from 2.75% on house A to 5.5% on house B. Who is buying a home after being evicted from a home?