I think people would support your opinions more if you added some legitimate due diligence. The “he doesn’t believe in covid” theory is a toddler action
I'm adding context to his "he got the mortgage call right" frame for the take. It's the exact same but with much more recency.
Also sitting on a tarmac firing off. Think Burry gets way too much attention for largely being an idiot since he got one right call so admittedly biased against anything he whispers being mainstream news because of a movie.
Personally I think the consumer balance sheet being strong is done with. People got roughly 3 grand from December 2020 to March 2021 that is gone by now, everything is more expensive particularly food and fuel, wages haven't kept pace with inflation, and now the Fed has gone and tightened borrowing costs at the fastest pace I believe in history. This doesn't even hit on the fact that most folk have gotten at least a 20% haircut in their bond, equity, or crypto position.
I agree with your logic and it confuses me too, but it’s a fact and not a take that Americans have more cash on hand than pre pandemic and I think it might be record cash on hand period. This is just like Bank of America and other banks reporting total dollars in checking accounts and savings accounts. The money is there.
Sure all the indicators are basically dogshit for the next 6 months, but have you considered I’d really prefer for the market to not dust off another 20%?
people realizing they may have missed the boat on record high housing prices and trying to sell before a recession
Bingo. Friend just did this with another ~10 months remaining on their new build. You can add wanting to get out ahead of further interest rate increases as well.
Curious how long we will be in this fun cycle where stocks creep up in between bad inflation numbers then tank 10% when they come out.
I think the inflation numbers will come in lower tbh, commodities are considerably off their highs across the board and that will alleviate pressure. I think how the market reacts to tomorrows jobs number will be interesting to watch. I think we are in an environment where bad news is good news for the stock market and with that good news is bad news for stocks.
I know nothing makes sense but a strong jobs report with recession fears should be positive. Day is still young.
I’m no Fed man but raising rates to combat this type of inflation seems like the wrong tactic. Or is that just me?
Pent up demand + liquidity + rapidly raising wages due to low employee supply + clogged supply chain = raise rates? Seems like unclogging the supply chain and letting pent up demand ease would make sense before changing rates idk
thats what everyone smart (which is people who agree with me) has been saying it'd be very dumb to throw a 75 on top of this, the previous 75 was dubious enough this one would be REALLY dangerous
75 is still priced in for the July meeting (and it will be 75). The bigger thing than this job report has been the drop in commodities, which should help the inflation problem. Next week’s CPI will be very interesting and dictate the forward guidance of the Fed.
That’s what I’m telling myself. I mitigated well with amzn this week but lost control of a near +8% week with aapl.
Do yall go with term or whole life insurance? The way I'm looking at it , I can obviously do much better in the equities market than investing in a whole life insurance policy. I'm thinking term and take the extra $550 that it would cost a month for whole and put that in the market. I know you never get your term $ back, but you don't get any other type of insurance premiums back either for the most part.
I've been told by a few people I trust that you shouldn't use insurance as an investment vehicle. Get term.
think this is month 3 of this sentiment, but with gas prices down there is light at the end of the tunnel. Still all but guarantees at least one more 75bp hike.
SCHX (VOO for Schwab basically) and SCHD are my two right now. But I’m right sizing my portfolio for retirement since I historically was heavy VGT, individual tech stocks and ICLN.