Update to this situation: Gazprom has shut off Nord Stream 1 that was providing gas to Europe and looks like it will be out for an undetermined amount of time. so in the tl;Dr form: Putin is squeezing Europe heading into winter with gas flows. Germany/Europe has bid up LNG Cargos (liquified natural gas) all summer in an order to fill their storage tanks (which are now 85%+ full). LNG is not as free flowing as the oil market is, so there are significant price arbitrages globally. For instance in the US it costs $9 mmbtu because nat gas is a by product of fracking and therefore plentiful in the US. Where in Europe and Asia it is not, Europe being a wealthy established market secures LNG at whatever the cost driving up the price globally and out bidding Japan and China. This rise in price globally means smaller less wealthy nations like Pakistan lose out on natural gas supplies and end up suffering the most. Now the question that will evolve over the coming months is can Europe (specifically Germany and France) survive the winter with full storage and no nord stream flows? I’ve seen differing opinions but ultimately it will come down to how cold of a winter will it be, does nord stream 1 ever turn back on, and what kind of demand reduction can the citizens of Europe pull off. While this is occuring the ECB is looking at hiking rates .75% Ultimately this will reverberate globally through the value of the dollar and most likely an economic recession for Europe come winter.
Am I wrong for thinking politicians just shouldn't be allowed to trade at all? Forget disclosure or time limits or whatever, you and anybody in household period just shouldn't be allowed to make any active trades while in office. Anti capitalism I guess but this shit is ridiculous. Career politician is a path to generational wealth.
No you aren’t wrong. I think support for this is overwhelming. Funny how it never seems to pass into law…
iirc the bill to ban it and spouses of electeds has the votes (currently at least) and is on the schedule for pre-midterms
yeah he's a complete charlatan who seemingly had his mind fully broken (if he ever was tethered to reality) by covid. his denialism was CRAZY before he just wiped his twitter completely.
Have mine with Bask. Currently getting 2.2% should get a nice bump around the next fed rate hike this month
I think I'm going to buy a cheap OTM put expiring in like 6 months just to compensate for the mental drain of all the red. SPY too expensive, any other recommendations?
Doesn’t seem like the hikes are helping but as someone who might be looking for a house in 2023, keep raising them rates!
How's that work though? Unless you're paying cash, rising rates are going to bring down home prices, but your new mortgage payment (and long-term interest) are going up too. Won't it come out in the wash, more or less, give or take? I guess you could refi years down the line when things normalize though.
Uhhhh rates are just now getting back to “normalized” territory. I’d be happy if they hold here and housing prices continue to fall.
Gotta say today was the first report that spooked me a bit. Powell doesn’t have any other mechanisms but to just keep hiking rates. I’m all fine with the impending recession but to my amateur eye this feels like it could last a while.
I mean the trend is still down, it was just above estimates. Their tool is a blunt hammer but it will effectively do its job it just takes time and yes it will ultimately probably lead to a recession. Again like a broken record here but that’s why mislabeling it transitory last fall was bad. Instead of smaller hikes to slow this ball we are now looking at our 3rd .75 bp hike in 4 months.
What are you considering normal? They are the highest they been since 2008. We spent 10 years between high 3s and mid 4s. We're low 5s now.
The current effective rate is 2.33 From December 08 - December 15 it was nearly 0 https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FEDFUNDS
Sure but that's going back a long way to find "normal". I'd say the 5 years prior to 2020 are better to look at than 20 years ago.
I don't disagree but I'd argue the 10 years prior to 2020 had set a new normal. It was a full decade, not a small blip.
low rates of the last 12 years was due to a failure in fiscal recovery from the '08 recession so we relied way too much on monetary mechanisms to limp out of it wouldn't 100% bank on returning that climate
Going back to the 70s I'd say around 7% is "normal". You stating 3s is normal is like my parents in the 80s saying 13s is normal. Both are silly. https://www.rocketmortgage.com/learn/historical-mortgage-rates-30-year-fixed Rates to start each decade per the above link 1970s - 7.31% 1980s - 7.48% 1990s - 10.13% 2000s - 8.06% 2010s - 5.14% 2020s - 3.72%
They've been on a downward projection for 40 years. There's been brief spikes followed by more down. I think we'll eventually settle back in the 4-5 range that we were in from 2010-2020. More than anything I just hope we can get some stability. That massive jump in 6 weeks earlier thos year sucked bad.