Why would you ignore the market cycle? Covid 2020 gives you a plain as day "bottom" for all asset classes during global panic. Go back with perfect hindsight. What asset class would you buy? And if you think central banks are eventually going to have to pivot back to looser monetary policy (b/c duh and lol at hiking much above what they're at now without breaking global financial markets), then what asset would you buy? Or just realize that the 200 WMA of btc is up and to the right and dollar cost averaging into an asset that performs orders of magnitude better than damn near any other asset class during loose monetary policy is a pretty simple thesis.
I’m still in on Gevo. Planning on building sustainable aviation fuel plants that will start up in 2025.
I should’ve dumped more into SGML Quite literally the only company I went deep diving on, and it’s up like 220%
You told me about them in June and I saw it was already up a lot and that scared me. well damn, 16 -> 26 since June 28th:
Social Security has a $3 trillion surplus. Claiming that its the cause of government insolvency is the opposite of, "it's just math."
Lol at boiling his thesis down to entitlements. I hear a lot of talk about interest expenses on debt and fiscal dominance.
Question for those who are accumulating cash. Where are you keeping it? High yield savings? Money market fund such as SWVXX?
not sure i could possibly be in a worse mood right now. about 18 months ago i invested in a 5 acre lot in the seattle area. it went under contract earlier this year and the people pulled out in april. we went back to market in may, got a better offer, got an update on 9/15 that they were set to close on 8/15. and i guess they called on monday and wanted to extend closing FOR A YEAR. was set for a 18x return. now it's probably dead until 2024. the fed is just killing everyone and everything right now.
Eh, closing on a deal next Friday. Got it for under market although maybe it will be for over market after the recession, lol.
Fourth deal with a projected exit this year and 0 have closed. Redi’d one last month and got a whopping $8k back. If they all had closed at even like 80% of what was projected it would’ve been 7 figures. At least I won’t have an enormous tax bill next year but fuck my life
We are going to end up closing one deal after February of this year when we probably do 6-8 per year usually. And even that might be on the ropes with the debt markets where they are. And I don’t think much is changing until late Q1 at the earliest. Hibernation.
I think Q1 might be optimistic sounds like another 1.25% in hikes by end of January. feds doing a great job of not fixing inflation and killing the economy. Good job
Thought we got really lucky on that deal. It will prob still sell somewhere around that multiple, but not for another 12-24 months. On the bright side, the group that backed out for all of the entitlements and zoning issues ironed out, so the next dd should be easier if you do want to get in some private equity real estate deals and qualify as an accredited investor, PM me and I can get you in touch with the group I’ve invested with.
But does the pref accrue as of the date of making a capital contribution, or does it only begin to accrue upon deployment of my capital contribution? My question was mostly in jest looking for a place to park cash and earn 8-15% in a down market.
No, and I think not having long exposure during that lead time will be particularly risky this time with a more violent move up….96th percentile for worst liquidity conditions in global history can create some unseen reflexivity
My co-worker just told me, "you need to stop investing. we're getting crushed in this market" What a shortsighted view.
It's like, people know you're supposed to buy low and sell high but then they're too paralyzed with fear to buy when things are low because that's when shit is scary. Human psychology is wild.
I'm just happy I've been retirement investing once a month and not all at once so I can dca on a lot of the stuff over the course of the year.
How much earnest money does the buyer stand to lose? I'd work a deal that requires a large option premium and grant them a 1 year option to buy.