1) There's a finite number of satellites in known orbits that can take a finite number of images per day. If you know where they are you can do a certain amount of masking what you're doing. 2) So far most of what we've seen Ukraine do has been defensive and defense is always easier; you're closer to your supply lines, you know the area, you know where your fallback positions are, and generally you need significantly fewer people to do it successfully. The ratio of offensive vs defensive numbers to guarantee success have been pretty static for millennia. Yes, Ukraine has excellent intel and good artillery now, but they're still at a major disadvantage in terms of pure numbers and armored vehicles, and if they over extend that disadvantage can turn really quickly. Not saying that will happen, but it's a concern of mine.
With the NATO constellations constantly watching does that eliminate the issue of an ambush of any scale? never mind. Already asked and answered.
I answered a bit of this responding to Illini but; it makes it substantially harder but not impossible. An armored ambush, maybe, although again if you know where satellites are there are ways to avoid them. But you can put a ton of infantry guys with anti-vehicle weapons in a semi truck, or put recoiless rifles on a pickup truck. Lets you move fast and its easier to mask and puts you on more or less equal footing with Ukrainian guys in Humvees or MRAPs. The bigger issue would be doing it without NATO signals picking it up and/or maintaining contact to coordinate.
How quickly are those captured guns/vehicles being put to use Ukraine from Kharkiv counter attack? Estimates are 250 or so pieces of equipment in various forms of readiness were captured very quickly it seems
Well, that's a possibility too. But generally, I don't give the benefit of the doubt to extremely wealthy people when they're spewing propaganda from a country engaged in genocide.
That particular one wasn't used, just transported to the front, so no time at all. Getting a new barrel may be harder.
Well, yes, but he also needs liquidity right now because his stupid antics got him into a deal he can't talk his way out of. I'd be shocked if he wasn't taking Russian money.
Ukraine will shoot it until it breaks or they run out of shells more likely to run out of shells first
Yeah I know but I wonder if we are doing something to make new barrels happen. Everyone keeps saying the Russians haven't even had access to proper materials since sanctions back in 2014.
Ukraine's metallurgy industry is probably mostly toast or captured by Russia, so they probably can't make them right now. Other than them (and Russia, obviously), wikipedia is telling me China, NK, and Romania make 152.4 mm and other Warsaw Pact caliber artillery tubes. There might be (*probably is*) some black market stuff coming from China or NK, but I'm guessing Romanian industry is working overtime making replacement barrels for Ukraine.
Sounds about right. I’m sure there are volunteers, but based on the effort we’ve seen, I would guess the circumstances this soldier described fits the bill for a solid majority of the Russian fighting force, even before the partial mobilization.
The texts that were released recently in relation to his Twitter lawsuit show just how stupid and impulse driven all the rich people in Musk’s contact list (as well as Musk himself) are. They’re all idiots.
stunningly if you shell a dudes town and kill his friends and neighbors they react to protect their tribe #heartsandminds
Not great if true. I did not click to see the photo fwiw. (Russians using chemical weapons that make you bleed from your eyes)
chloropicrin is some nasty fucking shit. That said, it's a pretty common broad spectrum herbicide and insecticide, and is probably pretty widely used in agricultural areas of Ukraine. Let's hope - hope - that if these guys were indeed exposed to it, it's from some other source. (Fighting next to a barrel or other storage container of it or something and the barrel got hit). God help us if the Russians have started using chemical weapons. edit: SDS on it https://labelsds.com/images/user_uploads/Chloropicrin SDS 7-17-19.pdf
What’s happening to Russia with 5th tier USA equipment and zero air support has to be eye opening for China…all the We SpEnD ToO MuCH oN DeFEnSE people got it so so wrong
Last two weeks has really seen a 100x increase in “Ukraine strikes Russian position with precision weapon” videos NATO weapons are scary
could be wrong, but i dont think the criticism that the US spends too much on military spending is related to the materials, logistics, etc. not being "good". in fact, the russian army being exposed as such a fraudulent force (clearly not "near peer") if anything further underscores that the prioritization of military spending is perhaps too high.
ehh that I’m not sure since Russian air defenses while not having worked against drones or Himars is absolutely effective against planes, cruise missiles, and helicopters that Ukraine has thrown at it Now F35’s that would be different
Looks like our intelligence sources are finding credible information pointing to Russia considering nuclear options.
I think if this war drags on very long into 2023 then that’s when we start to see Ukrainians trained on F-15s and F-16s.
you don’t think the quantum of spending has anything to do with the excess capacity in technology and material to send it for free to an ally in their war
we know Ukraine has lost 30+ fighter pilots, not sure how many they can spare for this type of training it’s a long putt to be a pilot just give ‘em drones and air defenses
I may be wrong, but I dont think all or even most of this stuff is free. I believe we are lending them the money to buy equipment. What percentage, I’m not sure. The value of of military spending when applied to strategic situations like this and power projection spillover it creates (as you mentioned with China) is real and tangible. We have facilitated the crippling of Putin’s power base. China’s expansionist calculus has changed. It can also be true that this value creation doesn’t have a one for one correlation with our military budget being as high as it is. Law of finishing returns and all that. It can be both.
6 months to train. Seeing a lot of smoke about Ukrainian pilots secretly training on US jets so don’t think many people would be surprised.
1. are you really that naive? You think when the dust settles we are actually going to make the Ukrainians pay the American government billions of dollars? Give me a break. I’ve got a bridge to nowhere to sell if that’s really your baseline. 2. The value of our spending of course isn’t subject to power laws but when combined with our innovations engines and overall ingenuity it delivers a clear and sustainable warfare advantage. Anyone that thinks otherwise is ignorant , foolish, or willfully blind.
I recently saw a credible documentary where an old F-14 with the help of an F-18 defeated 2 fifth-generation enemy fighter jets and eluded a battery of SAM’s