They could be exciting and win 28. They probably need to figure out how to get Plumlee back, but it’s definitely possible
I think 30-35 wins. Think Cade will be a beast, Bey will have his hot and cold games and I think Ivey like any rookie guard will have growing pains as he gets better. Improved team, more fun team but I think one more season until playoffs
Only a bunch of injuries could make this season not exciting for me. I don't care how many games we win.
Defense and rebounding going to be a big issue and offense will be inconsistent on such a young team. I really would not be shocked if Noel ends up starting just to add some D to that lineup
He had 10/8/4 shooting 50% playing only 24 min last game. He showed enough end of past season that I'm not going to worry about a couple preseason games.
In his game story Edwards used the phrase "live-ball turnovers" and mention Killian doing well off the "live dribble." What does the qualifier "live" add to either. Are there deadball turnovers? Is the dribbling other than live dribbling? This is going to be the new "lob threat," isn't it?
Live-ball turnovers is a relevant term. Statistically speaking, there's a significant difference between a steal (live-ball turnover) and a pass out of bounds (deadball turnover). One leads to a fast break opportunity. The other leads to the ball being taken out of bounds 15-30 seconds later. Throwing the ball out of bounds 10 times is frustrating, but isn't really hurting your defense. Allowing 10 steals is likely going to kill you. I'm not sure what the point of specifying "live dribbling" is.
Thank you, that makes sense. Are there teams that have a quantifiable difference between live-ball and dead-ball turnovers? I mean, aside from Houston and their 16.5, last year the best turnover team averaged 12.1 and the worst was 14.8. Are there teams that average 5 live-ball and 8 deadball turnovers vs teams that average 9 live-ball turnovers and 5 deadball turnovers? Or players with big differentials at positions where you'd expect the other?
I have no clue. I just see it mentioned somewhat frequently whenever you have playoff games where announcers are hammering the number of turnovers and nerds on Twitter are saying "not all turnovers are the same..." or whatever. I don't know what the difference is from a season-wide standpoint, but that kind of stuff probably does vary frequently from one game to the next and is relevant to differentiate in that kind of setting.
From a basketball standpoint, it seems mostly useful for a coach to quantify why a guy needs to be more careful with the dribble or gets into bad positions passing, or other teachable things. From an in-game standpoint, it may explain why TOs have or haven't hurt as much as you'd think, in part. Then again, some deadball turnovers come off of good scoring opportunities, which hurt more than some live-ball turnovers that end up with a center waiting for a guard to come pick up the ball from him. To be clear, I'm not criticizing you for explaining this to me. It's an interesting topic.
All turnovers are similarly bad offensively because it means you aren't getting a shot at the basket during those possessions. How you got there doesn't really matter from a statistical standpoint on that end. But there is a clear difference on the other end if the other team starts a possession off a steal or if they start by taking it out of bounds. It's no different from the idea that part of benefit of getting to the FT more often is you generally get to start with a set defense instead of scrambling. I think within the next 5 years we'll see a rise in statistical stuff in game that separates the "live turnovers" from "all turnovers" in some form or fashion. I think there will be a push to do it, and at some point it will become normalized like stats such as OBP and OPS slowly but surely making their way onto MLB broadcasts. And, along with that stuff being mentioned more often for teams, we'll start seeing it mentioned more with players in terms of the kinds of turnovers they commit.
Doesn’t stating that Killian is doing well off the live dribble indicate he’s making proper decisions off the bounce vs catch and shoot? So therefore he is being an effective creator? (Note I haven’t watched any of the preseason but Vinegar Strokes told me Cade is now a bust and Killian isn’t bc of his 20 point explosion)
That's the idea, yes. I guess my point is there is a distinction between a "live ball turnover" and a "turnover". By definition, I'm not sure how any dribble isn't a "live dribble". If someone is dribbling and picks it up, he is no longer dribbling. Thus, every dribble is "live".
I think we are going to be pretty bad this year. Hopefully Cade takes a jump forward, or it will be a long year.
Cade takes it to rim and faces good contact that should be a foul, no call. Ja gets ball dribbles it up court and purposefully runs into Boggy who isn't even leaning into him and foul called. It's ridiculous the call differences between stars and when is Cade going to start getting some calls?
And Ja flops and gets a foul on Duren when he got all ball. NBA is so hard to watch sometimes when "stars" are playing
Did you just tune out the end of last season or do you actually care what happens in preseason? Genuine question
Of Detroit recent high prospects Cade is far down the list of ones I worry about, behind possibly only Mo. He's in his 2nd year and will have some rough patches but he showed a sustained stretch he can be a high level player already
This will be an interesting year. Think we will see nights when the team looks really really good, when Cade is clicking and Ivey looking good. Think some nights Vinegar will say everyone on the team is a bust
I did some proprietary analytics and my numbers are telling me that Vinegar Strokes will post significantly less ITT from tonight until February, which means we will have a good start to the season. He will make up ground to end the year, but his post totals will be lower than previous years making this season a success.
Let's put things in perspective for opening night (James Edwards III post incoming) - We have Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, Saddiq Bey, and Jalen Duren on the roster who are all young af or younger. - Stewart, Hayes, Livers, and Bagley (he sorta counts) are also young guys on the roster with varying ceilings but could at least be solid playoff rotation pieces later. - We have tons of cap space and assets. Three years ago we were maxed out in the cap, possessed minimal assets, and our young core was Luke Kennard, Sekou Doumbouya, and Christian Wood. - The Milwaukee Bucks went 33-49 in Giannis' third year. - The Phoenix Suns were 34-39 in Booker's fifth year. This tank-style rebuild, which we all wanted, is (and was always going to) take a few years. This season is for watching Cade take over games late, Ivey doing insane shit, Duren doing things no 19 year old should be able to, and Bey taking another step. Meanwhile, we pray for another young guy or two to pop. Again, only injuries can derail a very fun season. If it ends in top lottery odds one last time, uhhhn sweet...?
This is a good assessment. I don’t understand people expecting this team to be competitive or even worrying about tanking. We’re definitely headed for the lottery. Enjoy the games and hope for ping pong ball luck. Unless we bring back Plumlee then it’s natty time
Give me a 30 win team where Ivey, Cade and Duren look good and Bey looks improved over a 35-40 win team rellying on Burks, Bogdanovich and Noel. Not saying don't play those three guys because I think they will help along the young guys, but end of the day the young guys playing well and improving is what is important this year