Warm greetings to my fellow tmb dems… Spoiler: Thoughts -Not getting blown out was huge in this economy and should pay dividends going forward given how much our politics focuses on “narratives.” -Trying to stay positive but potentially losing NV/WI/GA senate seats along with Lake taking AZ stings. Those states now represent the GOPs only road to the WH. -FL/OH gone forever. Good riddance. No reason to ever post about them again. Sorry old friend herb.burdette -No offense but I think a lot of people are being too dismissive of DeSantis’s chances against Trump. He is our George W. Bush now and we need his ass to healthy, and for guys like Pence/ Pompeo/Youngkin to dilute the antiTrump bloc. Another failed Trump run will solidify millions of younger voters to our camp.
No. 0% chance of that happening as many states have passed “sore loser” laws which prevent independent runs for losing primary candidates. What worries me is Trump getting in early and losing all momentum by the time DeSantis announces this spring. Trumps ego can’t take another loss. If polls show Ron winning IA/NH/NV, I think Trump will feign an illness and bow out even if he’s still a little ahead nationally. Then it’s basically coronation time…
I don’t think Trump is capable of winning the presidency again. DeSantis worries me. Not because I think he’s a capable candidate but because the right has gotten dumber and moderates have proven their ability to forget the absolute worst shit.
Stop giving "moderates" the benefit of the doubt. Their evil asses wouldn't vote for it they weren't in favor of it. They're just trash
Biden could pass out during the debate and be mired with a shitty economy and I’d still watch returns fairly confident we’d win against Trump. Even half of the GOP seems done with him now. Desantis is a whole different problem. He’s young, has a young family which might endear him to fellow gen x/ millennial swing voters compared to 82yo Joe. He’s also a far more effective communicator than Trump. And while he may not be able to accomplish a fraction of what he has in FL due to the filibuster, it’s not hard to envision a world in which he gets lucky with the economy and rides a 8year wave. ALOT of progress will be lost if we don’t see another Dem Prez until ‘32. Terrifying thought
We need to quit with the naivety. “Too dumb” doesn’t exist for the GOP. Desantis is more electable than Trump right now. Very long way to ‘24.
But is it? Even after election night ‘18, we all pivoted quickly to ‘20 in early ‘19 and the top candidates for each side (moderates for Biden; progressives for Bernie/Warren) stayed relatively consistent and set the stage early for what was to come. If Trump foolishly announces next week or even in early Dec this whole thing is thrown into hyperdrive. Arrogant take, buddy. Elections are binary choices. DeSantis is the new rockstar for GOPers and has the whole Murdoch machine behind him. If he gets the nomination all he has to do is beat an 82yo whose own party is lukewarm about him running (not to mention a very unpopular VP). Couple that with the states Ron needs just (potentially) elected Republicans, I genuinely don’t get how you can be so flippant about his candidacy. The only person I see stopping him is Trump and he seems to be doing everything he can to throw the match. Guess we’ll see…
My hope is trump neuters him even if he somehow prevails. I’m certainly not laughing off desantis. But we also have no idea how he will handle the national / presidential race spotlight.
Once upon a time jeb was the next king. Rubio too. Lights get real bright when you aren't just going on Fox news
Fetterman won PA. Even in todays world you can get away with not speaking. If the media loves him that’s what he needs
What are you arguing exactly? That historical data shows Desantis is guaranteed to fade? Trumpism has changed GOP politics. Citing some previous race with establishment candidates the base never really wanted is just silly. Guys like McCain, Santorum, Romney, Huckabee or whoever never got close to building the hype DeSantis has in this new landscape. Just like Trump showed in ‘16, once you become the nominee the GOP will line up behind you, period. And like ‘16 we’re going to have a vulnerable candidate (not as polarizing as Hillary I grant you, but still not someone the country seems thrilled about re-electing at present).
youre hand waving two literal presidential primary winners. Realize how captured by the moment you are.
I’ve heard Trump speak plenty prior to his presidential run and he was dumb as fuck. None of that matters.
Remember when Rudy was the juggernaut of the future gop with historically high approval ratings and spent years as the perceived front runner
There’s nothing hyperbolic about my assertion, nor did I say it was a fait accompli Desantis wins. And its not “captured by the moment” to acknowledge Trump’s support has been fading while DeSantis’ has been rising. Don’t misunderstand me, I already despise Ron more than Don which I didn’t think was possible a year ago. But the fact is while many of us have been pleasantly surprised by Biden and consider his to be a successful presidency, very few people seems to want him to run again. That gives a non-Trump candidate a strong chance imo in ‘24. If you disagree, cool. Hope you’re right.
Remember when Trump did the “retard arm” move making fun of a handicapped journalist? That should have been it for him.
disagree. he's a complete fucking lump but he's the benefactor of a ton of "positive" and "alternative to trump" propaganda from media outlets. he's got insane name recognition and who knows how that'll play out. he's basically a nexus point for chuds and neocons to reunite for R's. There's probably a bunch of over-thinking libs and centrists who think they're cosmopolitan for giving him a chance (same way that there were real, breathing dems who thought it would be cool to vote for trump to 'shake things up') Will he absolutely fold the moment he's on stage with Trump? Definitely. The strategy is then to not put himself on that stage
"he was a top lawyer for the navy seals!" ad was such weird framing that I had no idea whether they were getting, like, unlawful orders or doing unlawful things or were being instructed for how to report normal or not-normal things. Or if the seals were beating their wives or getting DUIs and Ron was meant to get them out of it or whatever that meant. Or maybe he handled, like, navigating banal things for them like Wills or whatever? Then they made it sound like he was effectively commanding missions in that ad. But it sounds great and like a big plus for a lot of people when it could mean a bunch of things. Also it seems weird that he's like a year removed from that and definitely-not-drinking with high schoolers
ill probably regret these words but Desantis aint the kind of guy who would win the swing states to get to 270 sure, he'll dominate the states Republicans are already a shoe-in for, but he aint gonna be able to win enough in PA or Michigan to sway the election
Yeah, I don’t think many posters itt realize how quickly things seem to be moving in chud cyberspace. Bricktop the white was on point about keeping an eye on those politics forums on sites like Texags/Tigerdroppings etc. Those forums were once a literal haven for Trump cultists. As in he can do no wrong, period. Nowadays it seems there’s half a dozen posts every hour arguing vehemently for Desantis with less and less pushback form the Trumpers. Many seemed almost resigned to it, saying “I’ll be happy to vote for either.” lol. And while I agree it’s only a small sample, the wheels do seem to be somewhat turning against the Donald. I pray he can hold on just one more time…
I understand that the chuds are desperate for a cult of personality to swear fealty to and that they've chosen DeSantis as that person. But that doesn't make him a threat to win a national general election in its own.
As it turns out when your entire platform for six years is nothing more than "what position will piss off the libs?" it doesn't win elections even when things are grim.
We just have a disconnect on this point. If you said doesn’t make him a lock to win I’d agree. But if Desantis wins the nomination he’s a huge threat to win the general, especially when matched up against an 82yo man whose own party is begging him to hang it up.
DeSantis reminds me a lot of Rick Perry. Popular big state gov who everyone had high expectations of until the debates when he had to show substance and couldn’t. The difference is he’s inheriting a totally different party and media machine that seems hellbent on pushing him over the line. Hearing fox describe him as a moderate on election night blew my mind. The only good thing I’ll say about him is that I don’t think he’d try to overthrow our government. I think he’s a run of the mill politician that took a chance at adapting to the whole fake trump schtick and it paid off.
Perry came off like he had a legitimate mental disability - I haven't seen that much of Desantis but he's allegedly intelligent. That doesn't mean he is bereft of horrible opinions and policy decisions - just that he's supposedly very smart.
DeSantis off the cuff comes across similarly. Watch the Crist debate and it really seemed like something was wrong with him. He’ll get demolished in debates. Best case is he and trump both run and split the maga vote, and someone who knows what they’re doing comes in to skate by on a few good performances
You’re out of your mind if you think dessntis isn’t a major threat to win the general. It’s too early to say but probably more so than even trump given what happened during the midterms.
Why not? Is your assumption that Trump is going to be loyal to the party he’s been a part of so his whole life? You’re probably right. He handles perceived slights so well.
I know this is the hottest of takes right now, but someone like Brian Kemp seems more likely to me than DeSantis.
I’m not saying desantis wins the primary but he’s got all the clout he needs to win at this point today if he does
Oh for sure. He’s the heir apparent. I just think a 20pt win or whatever it was has more to do with how red Florida is now and how bad his opponent was. He wouldn’t win by this much in the purple Florida of old. The gay community in Miami alone would have seen to it.
Will Trump run 3rd party irregardless of what happens with the republicans in an attempt to stay out of jail?
I posted this yesterday and there would be so many promises and deals made of pardon to keep him out of jail, though I’m not legal enough to know which of any, crimes he could be pardoned for.
I think this conversation is arguing different things. Of course DeSantis is a huge threat to win the primary and potentially the presidency - we live in hell. However, DeSantis’ current popularity isn’t necessarily a great barometer of his national popularity because he’s a low energy complainer that Trump may significantly outshine. It’s not impossible for DeSantis to overcome it, but he’ll have to show skill that he hasn’t shown to date.
No way he’s showing any kind of weakness. If anything, he’d just go on tour crowing about how it was stolen from him and burn the whole thing down. Have you not paid any attention to him?