Official Investing Thread

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by Joe Louis, Jul 12, 2010.

  1. Stagger Lee

    Stagger Lee Crazy. Sexy. Cool.
    Staff Donor TMB OG
    Georgia BulldogsTexas RangersCharlotte HornetsCarolina PanthersGrateful DeadWu-tang

    I don't think there is a right answer. Just keep some kind of documentation that you can use to give the IRS a roadmap of why/how funds were moved. Receipt and contemporaneous notes should work. If your HSA/Payflex account offers an online mechanism to save/upload pics/receipts, you could certainly use that. I'm a tax lawyer, and I don't even keep sophisticated records in this area. Just a manila envelope filled with my receipts and a handwritten ledger of reimbursements

    Even with all the enforcement money being pumped into the agency, I don't think the IRS is going to be pushing any resources into looking at whether a few HSA charges or reimbursements were proper. There's going need to be other significant flagged issues for them to even start an examination.
     
    The Hebrew Husker likes this.
  2. kinghill

    kinghill Cool American Flavour
    Donor
    Miami HurricanesMiami MarlinsMiami DolphinsMiami HeatPoker

    ok Fidelity sucks. Retirement fund with .5 expense ratio? Bunch of scam artists
     
    DuffandMuff and Sportfan like this.
  3. billdozer

    billdozer Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Clemson TigersCarolina Panthers

    That's whatever your company selected. I have Fidelity and the highest we have is 0.38, which is the target date funds. Otherwise I have 0.07 and 0.01 funds.
     
  4. The Blackfish

    The Blackfish The Fish in Black
    Staff Donor TMB OG
    Alabama Crimson TideIndianapolis ColtsBook Club

    Same. Definitely a company problem not fidelity. Fidelity started the zero expense ratio funds
     
    Bo Pelinis and billdozer like this.
  5. The Milkman

    The Milkman Send lawyers, guns and money, shit has hit the fan
    Donor

    yikes
     
    Bo Pelinis likes this.
  6. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
    Staff Donor



    transitorryyyyy
     
    Sportfan likes this.
  7. Chumbolone

    Chumbolone Wigglin’ my toes on a mink rug…
    Indiana HoosiersNotre Dame Fighting IrishChicago CubsIndianapolis Colts

    Bought some NTSX this morning.
     
  8. Arliden

    Arliden Well-Known Member
    Donor


    Related visual dipiction:

     
  9. The Hebrew Husker

    Donor
    Nebraska CornhuskersSeattle MarinersColorado AvalanceWWENebraska Cornhuskers alt

    Is this a long term play or no? Admittedly haven’t looked at this at all yet, but always interested in what other people are seeing.
     
  10. Chumbolone

    Chumbolone Wigglin’ my toes on a mink rug…
    Indiana HoosiersNotre Dame Fighting IrishChicago CubsIndianapolis Colts

    Long term, taxable accounts.
     
    The Hebrew Husker likes this.
  11. Andy Reocho

    Andy Reocho Please don't get lost in the sauce
    Staff Donor TMB OG
    Kansas JayhawksKansas City RoyalsKansas City ChiefsNewcastle UnitedBig 8 ConferenceFormula 1

    Ty Webb BWC - not sure if you’ve seen anything on $MMTLP since the fuckery, but I got this today from sofi



    upload_2023-1-12_14-4-15.gif
     
    BWC and Ty Webb like this.
  12. Ty Webb

    Ty Webb Living rent free in Jigga's head
    Donor
    Nebraska CornhuskersChicago CubsChicago BullsDetroit LionsChicago BlackhawksTiger Woods

    Thanks for sharing. Haven’t received anything from TD yet.

    Everything makes sense though. We now own private company that isn’t traded. Going to get some old school stock certs.
     
  13. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
    Staff Donor

    dunno where else to put this but helping my parents with wills and estate planning, also going to do my own as i'm lazy and haven't done it yet

    Quickens willmaker seems great for basically 95% of people.
     
    kinghill and Chumbolone like this.
  14. Arliden

    Arliden Well-Known Member
    Donor

    just use chatgpt
     
  15. Chumbolone

    Chumbolone Wigglin’ my toes on a mink rug…
    Indiana HoosiersNotre Dame Fighting IrishChicago CubsIndianapolis Colts

    In the spirit of attempting to understand both sides of this debate, what’s the counter argument to this data point specifically, if there is one? How does team transitory respond to this?
     
  16. Arliden

    Arliden Well-Known Member
    Donor

    oh it has nothing to do with transitory or not, it was related to a comment I made a while back regarding pricing of the SP500 and how it’s basically been a “price” side of the P/E equation so far.

    My post was more to try and help people understand why markets are valued roughly where they are today and what drives that.
     
    #29366 Arliden, Jan 13, 2023
    Last edited: Jan 13, 2023
    Chumbolone likes this.
  17. Chumbolone

    Chumbolone Wigglin’ my toes on a mink rug…
    Indiana HoosiersNotre Dame Fighting IrishChicago CubsIndianapolis Colts

    What am I misunderstanding then, bc the twitter comments seem to imply impending doom in contrast to those who believe we’ll avoid a recession/soft landing?
     
  18. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
    Staff Donor

  19. Arliden

    Arliden Well-Known Member
    Donor

    Sorry I was in Vegas over the weekend, so lets see how I do framing this question.



    The crux of this debate was centered around how long you believe the word "transitory" is supposed to last.

    I don't disagree that inflation is transitory, what I did disagree with was that inflation would only last a few more months and why inflation was rising in the first place.

    We started discussing inflation being transitory in here June of 2021 with inflation that month coming in at 5.4%. Most of the folks proclaiming transitory at the time were very firm in their beliefs that it was all just from past supply chain bottlenecks from shutdowns and that the 5.4% number would be close to the top. But it wasn't, which led to Powell abandoning the word transitory in November of 2021.

    Why I agree that inflation is transitory for two reasons:

    1. Mathematically in the way inflation is compared it is transitory in nature, for example in the second half of 2023 it will be extremely hard to have higher headline CPI numbers than the 2022 multiple month stretch of 8-9% inflation.

    2. Central bank reaction function. Whenever you have bouts of inflation this high, they go into restrictive policy in an effort to bring inflation down.


    Transitory was a policy error, it was an incorrect belief on how long inflation would last and that 5 trillion in fiscal stimulus, not supply chain bottlenecks, was what was driving that inflation. Ultimately those two incorrect beliefs led to a central bank reaction function that was delayed and with already high inflation left itself exposed to external shocks, ie war in ukraine, to drive inflation to even higher levels.

    This results in a panicked reaction of a central bank that raises rates at one of the fastest paces in US history.

    So yes, inflation is coming down and will pretty precipitously this year because of the two points (1., 2.) I mentioned above. The question for 2023/2024 is what will the be the result of going from 0% to 5% interest rates in a short time do to an economy that has been very strong. Unprofitable tech stocks are the quickest to rerate, housing has followed that coming to a halt (KB homes with a 68% cancellation rate last quarter), but the rest of the economy takes longer to digest rate increases (12-18 months). No one knows the answer yet to that question, I have a belief but it remains to be seen if that is the right one.
     
  20. g8r

    g8r Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Florida GatorsBoston Red Sox

    “The world is transitory” if you wait long enough…..lyrtch probably
     
    Ty Webb and NothingIsOT like this.
  21. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
    Staff Donor

    There's basically no argument anymore that inflation wasn't transitory the fed made a mistake pr wise because people wrongly assumed it would be like two months and didn't know what it meant.

    Similar to the recession nonsense a few months ago
     
    Chumbolone and The Guglia like this.
  22. TAXTAXTAX

    TAXTAXTAX Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Florida State Seminoles

    In my understanding:

    transitory = temporary supply constraints

    structural = oversupply of money resulting in artificial demand > productive capacity
     
  23. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
    Staff Donor

    No.
     
  24. Arliden

    Arliden Well-Known Member
    Donor

    Way I think about it is you can have temporary supply constraints and I believe a temporary oversupply of money as well.

    Structural to me has less to do with money and more to do with things like age demographics (lots of young families moving into their first homes buying appliances, goods, etc), a reversing of off shoring manufacturing and on-shoring production for higher labor costs, tech will always be deflationary, and high energy costs due to things like a lack of capital expenditure.

    All those structural things are in essence "transitory" but they can last for a decade. The long term global trend is disinflation but you can have moments in time 5 years, a decade, whatever where you get inflationary pockets.
     
    construxboy likes this.
  25. Sportfan

    Sportfan From Six to Dumptime
    San Antonio SpursHouston TexansNew Mexico State AggiesTexas AandM Aggies

    I usually have CNBC on in the background but gotta say this whole Davos week is so disgusting I said fuck it and flipped to Bloomberg.

    It’s boring but I don’t feel as gross so I think I’ll stick with it moving forward.
     
    steamengine, shawnoc and jcb-r like this.
  26. Sportfan

    Sportfan From Six to Dumptime
    San Antonio SpursHouston TexansNew Mexico State AggiesTexas AandM Aggies

  27. Jay Jay Okocha

    Donor

    My experience has been companies with strong balance sheets post COVID.

    It’s been the ultimate phase of talking people into spending less money by the Fed.
     
  28. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
    Staff Donor

  29. C A N E

    C A N E Let justice be done though the heavens fall
    Donor
    Miami HurricanesMiami Heat

    Stop normalizing crypto
     
  30. jcb-r

    jcb-r Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Rutgers Scarlet KnightsNew York MetsBrooklyn NetsTennessee TitansNew Jersey Devils

    Can't wait for the inevitable pullback once Papa Powell starts talking next week.
     
  31. Seavie

    Seavie Loading tweet...
    Donor TMB OG
    Alabama Crimson Tide

    Question please regarding excess Roth IRA contributions:

    -I got married in 2022. We're going to be married filing separately for 2022. I just learned that this puts me over the income limit to be able to contribute to a Roth IRA. Apparently that max is only 10k in this situation. Had no idea.
    -I contributed my max of 6k. So my total excess contribution is 6k.
    -I need to remove my excess of 6k, which is simple enough.
    -The tricky part for me is I'm actually down on what that 6k is invested in right now. Obviously I don't want to sell at a loss to be able to withdraw. But I think I have to.
    -I'm reading that if I've taken a loss on my excess contribution, I might be able to subtract said loss from the amount I have to withdraw.

    Anyone have any experience with this?
     
  32. billdozer

    billdozer Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Clemson TigersCarolina Panthers

    If you don't have a traditional IRA, read these:

    https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=366215
    https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=374189
     
    Seavie likes this.
  33. Seavie

    Seavie Loading tweet...
    Donor TMB OG
    Alabama Crimson Tide

  34. billdozer

    billdozer Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Clemson TigersCarolina Panthers

    I don't think so. I think it's just forms, but I'd ask your investment firm to be sure.
     
  35. Sportfan

    Sportfan From Six to Dumptime
    San Antonio SpursHouston TexansNew Mexico State AggiesTexas AandM Aggies

    Thought this was a pretty nuanced, yet not over-complicated look at the 4% rule.

     
    wolfpck, Lyrtch and construxboy like this.
  36. Baseballman86

    Baseballman86 Well-Known Member
    Alabama Crimson TideAtlanta BravesAtlanta Falcons

    I think I've posted this before, but we recently got a pretty significant pay bump so I wanted to ask again.

    my wife is a teacher and will retire at 55 with her teacher's pension. My stretch goal is to have the option to retire with her at that time. My 401K is on track to have plenty by the time I'm 65, but I need to fund the gap between 55 and when I can withdraw penalty free. That's 20 years from now. How would y'all prioritize investing? Does the traditional advice still hold even though I'm trying to fund that gap prior to penalty-free withdrawals?

    Basic stats below:
    -Home is locked in at 3%, we aren't moving
    -215K base HHI, my target bonus is 20% but we don't always get one
    - currently contribute 11% to my 401K and get 7% match. I believe 13% would max me out
    - we have one small rental house with a modest cash flow
    - I contribute about 1k per year to HSA but never use it
    -kids private school is our largest expense, we've got that for 8 more years on oldest and 11 more on youngest.
    -currently have about 2200 a month "extra" to invest however makes sense. I do index funds, traditional savings and also play around with some alternative investments with maybe 5%-10% of it.

    I had always planned on doing rental properties and trying to build that to the point of sustaining me at 55, and I still plan to pursue that, but don't want to miss other, easier pathways.
     
    letan and DuffandMuff like this.
  37. Sportfan

    Sportfan From Six to Dumptime
    San Antonio SpursHouston TexansNew Mexico State AggiesTexas AandM Aggies

    It sounds like you should be able to retire well before 55, and you’re doing everything just fine based on what you laid out above.

    What’s the non 401k nest egg looking like?
     
    Baseballman86 likes this.
  38. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
    Staff Donor

    is it safe
     
  39. Baseballman86

    Baseballman86 Well-Known Member
    Alabama Crimson TideAtlanta BravesAtlanta Falcons

    Not great. Wife's is all through her pension, but beyond that we've got the rental house, about $15k in cash savings, maybe $10k in an online brokerage, and maybe another $10k in stuff like crypto, P2P lending, bourbon, etc.
     
  40. Bo Pelinis

    Donor TMB OG
    Nebraska CornhuskersKansas City RoyalsKansas City ChiefsBig 8 Conference

    I'd prob toss some cash into a money market fund every month while rates are at 4%. SWVXX at Schwab is currently paying out 4.27%. Enough where it'll add up but you won't really miss it idk. Segregate it in your head but have access to it if you have an emergency.
     
    JohnnyChimpo and Baseballman86 like this.
  41. Joystick Izzy

    Joystick Izzy Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Georgia BulldogsAtlanta BravesTennessee TitansNashville Predators

    You can take money out of your 401k if you retire early without a 10% penalty. Look up "substantially equal periodic payments" and how to apply it to a 401k.
     
  42. billdozer

    billdozer Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Clemson TigersCarolina Panthers

    Look up Roth conversion ladders. Popular in the FIRE community. I would max out tax advantaged before taxable.
     
    Baseballman86 likes this.
  43. zachary

    zachary <3
    Donor
    UTSA Roadrunners

    I have had a SoFi account for a couple years now and I rarely mess with it. Have some small money going in stuff like QQQ and VTI but I am thinking of investing a larger sum of roughly $10,000. I probably should speak to an investor but also for some odd reason trust people on here. Any recs on what to invest in? This is basically free money, vacation money, etc.
     
  44. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
    Staff Donor

    is this retirement focused or do you plan to need it in the next 5 years?
     
  45. zachary

    zachary <3
    Donor
    UTSA Roadrunners

    nah not retirement focused. i would probably use it in the next 5 years more than likely.
     
  46. billdozer

    billdozer Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Clemson TigersCarolina Panthers

    Then savings account or CD
     
  47. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
    Staff Donor

  48. Sportfan

    Sportfan From Six to Dumptime
    San Antonio SpursHouston TexansNew Mexico State AggiesTexas AandM Aggies

    I feel like these hikes are more about sending a message than anything a 25bp increase truly impacts. They just don’t want to signal any easing will happen soon.
     
    Arliden and gordon bombay like this.
  49. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
    Staff Donor

    after i started learning about this stuff realizing so so so much of it is just vibes broke my brain
     
  50. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
    Staff Donor

    like consumer sentiment and inflation expectations are two of the most important things to track