Official Investing Thread

Discussion in 'The Mainboard' started by Joe Louis, Jul 12, 2010.

  1. WC

    WC Bad Company, ‘til the day I die.
    Donor TMB OG
    North Carolina State WolfpackAtlanta BravesCarolina PanthersCarolina HurricanesUnited States Men's National Soccer Team

    Me reading all this

     
  2. Arliden

    Arliden Well-Known Member
    Donor

    Higher for longer continues.

    With earnings struggling means it’ll be tough slogging for stocks at this valuation level.
     
  3. Gallant Knight

    Donor
    Arkansas RazorbacksHouston AstrosRice OwlsAston Villa

    hope everyone likes the house they're currently in

    jerome can lick my asshole
     
    letan likes this.
  4. Arliden

    Arliden Well-Known Member
    Donor

    Well the markets current path is retightening financial conditions, in turn making the possibility of a hard landing greater.

    I will be curious to see the market narrative by the next Fed meeting.
     
  5. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
    Staff Donor

    haven't looked but bet the odds of a 50 bump went way up this morning
     
    Gallant Knight likes this.
  6. Gallant Knight

    Donor
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    killing the economy and sending hundreds of thousands to the unemployment line so the price of eggs doesn't go up. seriously fuck off jerome
     
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  7. C A N E

    C A N E Let justice be done though the heavens fall
    Donor
    Miami HurricanesMiami Heat

    Maxed my wife’s Ira yesterday in VOO. Sorry for causing the drop.
     
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  8. Gallant Knight

    Donor
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    Margin rates at Schwab are 12% lol
     
    Tug likes this.
  9. Arliden

    Arliden Well-Known Member
    Donor

    I would think so, it was 24% yesterday I’ll have to look later.

    But they don’t even need to raise .50 for markets to reverse course and tighten themselves case in point is mortgage rates. Which have gone from 7 down to 6 on hopes of a fed pause and now we are back north of 6.5%
     
  10. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
    Staff Donor

  11. gordon bombay

    gordon bombay magician's alliance enthusiast
    Donor
    Georgia Tech Yellow JacketsAtlanta BravesAtlanta HawksAtlanta Falcons

    I locked in 5.75% on a 30yr on 1/26, obviously sucks but all things considered I guess I’m okay with it
     
  12. Arliden

    Arliden Well-Known Member
    Donor

    I think in a couple years you’ll have a decent opportunity to refinance.
     
  13. Gallant Knight

    Donor
    Arkansas RazorbacksHouston AstrosRice OwlsAston Villa

    Unless the housing market goes doodoo which seems possible
     
  14. Arliden

    Arliden Well-Known Member
    Donor

    Well I just meant his rate, but yes being underwater would be more complicating.
     
  15. Frankie Carbone

    Frankie Carbone eh che se dice
    Florida State SeminolesNew York YankeesNew York KnicksOrlando CityLazioUnited States Men's National Soccer Team

    Chances of that happening are fairly low
     
  16. Arliden

    Arliden Well-Known Member
    Donor

    what part
     
  17. Frankie Carbone

    Frankie Carbone eh che se dice
    Florida State SeminolesNew York YankeesNew York KnicksOrlando CityLazioUnited States Men's National Soccer Team

    Housing market taking any significant hit. I was more or less furthering your point about refi in the next few years
     
    Arliden likes this.
  18. Arliden

    Arliden Well-Known Member
    Donor

    Gotcha, yea I think for a refi there is a decent chance.

    As far as the housing market goes I think it gets more complicated to answer because there are more variables. I think generally it will vary by region, you are already seeing tech heavy job locations like the Bay Area and Seattle down close to double digits from the spring 22 peaks. I think a lot of those folk were also buying rental properties or covid escapes in places like Boise which has also gotten hit, same with the southwest. Where as the southeast, Midwest, northeast prices have held in more.

    Then, as much as there is talk of tight supply of existing homes (which there is) there is a large wave of new homes coming onto the market. We haven’t hit levels of building like this since prior to 08 and I think prices of new homes will ultimately set the market rather than existing.

    And lastly I think this rosier outlook over the past month or two on the housing market is just the result of markets thinking the fed would pivot and watching mortgages drop from 7% to sub 6% in a couple month span. As we reverse the other way I expect to see not as great data in the months ahead.

    As it stands mortgage payments are way to high for the average consumer and until it balances out I think the housing market will show some region specific weakness.

    This was a good thread on the topic I saw a week ago or so and how it ties into a potential soft landing too.
     
    #29718 Arliden, Feb 24, 2023
    Last edited: Feb 24, 2023
  19. gordon bombay

    gordon bombay magician's alliance enthusiast
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    Georgia Tech Yellow JacketsAtlanta BravesAtlanta HawksAtlanta Falcons

    I’m in Bergen county NJ in an elite public school system, anything is possible but I haven’t seen the home value changes there
     
    Arliden likes this.
  20. Frankie Carbone

    Frankie Carbone eh che se dice
    Florida State SeminolesNew York YankeesNew York KnicksOrlando CityLazioUnited States Men's National Soccer Team

    Home values in Florida in large part are barely moving. Granted there’s a hefty influx of people moving here but housing currently having any meaningful drop in price/value is extremely area specific. There’s no sufficient data available to suggest that’s going to change anytime soon.

    IMO the floor is established and slight variances up or down is the game in the foreseeable future (at least Florida based homes)
     
    #29720 Frankie Carbone, Feb 24, 2023
    Last edited: Feb 24, 2023
    Iron Mickey likes this.
  21. Arliden

    Arliden Well-Known Member
    Donor

    I think the book isn’t closed until affordability is rectified, that can happen in different ways that don’t include prices going down but for now those ways are headed in the opposite direction.
     
    Tug likes this.
  22. NC Wolfpack

    NC Wolfpack Go Pack Go
    Donor
    North Carolina State WolfpackGreen Bay Packers

    In central North Carolina and while homes are on the market a few more days, prices and general availability are not getting better.
     
  23. WC

    WC Bad Company, ‘til the day I die.
    Donor TMB OG
    North Carolina State WolfpackAtlanta BravesCarolina PanthersCarolina HurricanesUnited States Men's National Soccer Team

    Same in Raleigh. Prices dropped a bit last fall, but resisted anything since. Same with supply. I assume it’s just a growth thing, but I’m not a real estate market expert.
     
  24. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
    Staff Donor

    going to be interesting what happens here, we have an obscene amount of housing being built locally, including downtown units. hoping it drops housing value but not optimistic.
     
  25. BigReff73

    BigReff73 Well-Known Member
    Donor
    North Carolina State Wolfpack

    We still buying as much VTI and VOO as we can?
     
  26. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
    Staff Donor

    it never stops
     
    kinghill and TDintheCorner like this.
  27. Sportfan

    Sportfan From Six to Dumptime
    San Antonio SpursHouston TexansNew Mexico State AggiesTexas AandM Aggies

    Im not selling but all my disposable income is going into a money market until QT stops. Then I’ll assess. Yes caveats are markets are forward looking and not always rational, but we have contracting earnings with stagnant inflation while the terminal fed rate keeps ticking up. Seems like a solid time to manufacture some diversification by getting a decent yield to see how things shake out.
     
  28. Bo Pelinis

    Donor TMB OG
    Nebraska CornhuskersKansas City RoyalsKansas City ChiefsBig 8 Conference

    VTI, SCHD for retirement. Money markets for brokerage besides $500 in ZIM
     
    Ty Webb, TDintheCorner and Sportfan like this.
  29. Joystick Izzy

    Joystick Izzy Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Georgia BulldogsAtlanta BravesTennessee TitansNashville Predators

    All my extra money is technically for retirement. So VTI/VTSAX and chill for me always and forever.
     
  30. TDintheCorner

    Donor
    Georgia BulldogsAtlanta BravesAvengersUnited States Men's National Soccer Team

    Same except SWPPX/SWTSX
     
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  31. NothingIsOT

    NothingIsOT Prom pic
    Donor
    Miami MarlinsMiami DolphinsFlorida PanthersDetroit TigersMiami Heat

    You guys credit union, traditional bank or online bank people? I want to do online bank but I hate that feeling if I need more than the online bank atm withdrawal in cash for making it rain at the club.

    Or I got to time things right on escrow down payment day for purchasing a home, because online banks take days.

    So I guess credit union is the middle ground with their shitty app interfaces? I’m trying to take advantage of higher yields with online banking, but I hate having a minimum sitting in a traditional rotting just bc I need security for those traditional bank benefits.
     
  32. Arliden

    Arliden Well-Known Member
    Donor

    Brick & mortar: Wells Fargo
    Online: Ally
    Vegas/international ATM withdrawals: Schwab
     
    BigReff73 likes this.
  33. NothingIsOT

    NothingIsOT Prom pic
    Donor
    Miami MarlinsMiami DolphinsFlorida PanthersDetroit TigersMiami Heat

    What do you do with your paycheck? What function do each perform for you?
     
  34. Arliden

    Arliden Well-Known Member
    Donor

    Tbh most banks are sand bagging raising their yields in bank accounts or savings accounts, money market accounts and brokerage CD’s are yielding far more than your traditional online bank or brick and mortar
     
    Sportfan likes this.
  35. Arliden

    Arliden Well-Known Member
    Donor

    Wells Fargo is paycheck/direct deposit
    Ally was savings account but I don’t use it because of the post above^ (aka they yield 3.4 but I can get 4+ through my brokerage)
    Schwab they refund my atm withdrawals in areas you get hit with atm fees like vegas or international
     
    NothingIsOT likes this.
  36. billdozer

    billdozer Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Clemson TigersCarolina Panthers

    I have a local checking account and Ally for most of my savings. I keep ~$3000 in the checking and put in enough money to cover bills that aren't paid with a credit card in it. The rest goes to Ally.
     
    kinghill likes this.
  37. The Milkman

    The Milkman Send lawyers, guns and money, shit has hit the fan
    Donor

    That trend has never stopped. Max out everything. Especially when the S&P drills pretty soon.
     
  38. Sam Elliott

    Sam Elliott Job title: Assistant Bouncer at the Double Deuce
    Florida State SeminolesChicago BullsGreen Bay PackersTampa Bay LightningManchester United

    Thinking about dumping TGT today before earnings overnight. I don't expect blockbuster results and imagine investors will dump alot to drive the price down.

    I was hoping to see it get back to $200 but I will still make a healthy profit from the pandemic lows if I close out.
     
  39. Whammy

    Whammy Donde es
    Donor
    Alabama Crimson TideVanderbilt CommodoresNew Orleans SaintsChicago BlackhawksAtlanta United

    We are same
     
  40. John McGuirk

    John McGuirk member of the blue tiger club
    Donor
    Auburn TigersAtlanta BravesDallas CowboysDallas StarsDallas Mavericks alt

    Yes, I’m in it for the long game
     
  41. C A N E

    C A N E Let justice be done though the heavens fall
    Donor
    Miami HurricanesMiami Heat

    “Market gains on same sentiment 72 hours ago that caused it to dive”
     
    Ralph likes this.
  42. brolift

    brolift 2sweet
    Donor
    Kansas State WildcatsDenver NuggetsKansas City ChiefsBarAndGrillBig 8 Conference

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    https://www.ft.com/content/64b3d0b6-e0be-4e8c-9b20-c595428267d5

    It has been a bleak year for many investors. Global investors have lost $23tn of wealth in housing and financial assets so far in 2022, according to my estimates. That is equivalent to 22 per cent of global gross domestic product and uncomfortably exceeds the lesser $18tn of losses suffered in the 2008 financial crisis. Hopefully though, next year will not be so bad for assets, because the cycle of global liquidity is bottoming out. Part of my reasoning is that quantitative easing programmes by central banks to support markets are impossible to reverse quickly because the financial sector has become so dependent on easy liquidity. The very act of quantitative tightening creates systemic risks that demand more QE. We track the fast-moving, global pool of liquidity — the volume of cash and credit shifting around financial markets. The impact of the ebb and flow of this pool, currently about $170tn, can be seen in the central bank programmes to support markets through the Covid-19 pandemic — quantitative easing. The latter drove another “everything up” bubble through 2020-21. But as soon as policymakers hit the brakes in early 2022 and triggered a near-$10tn liquidity drop, asset markets collapsed. We focus on liquidity because the nature of our financial system has changed. The markets no longer serve as pure capital-raising mechanisms. Rather they are capital refinancing systems, largely dedicated to rolling over our staggering global debts of well over $300tn. This puts a premium on understanding collective balance sheet capacity to finance debt issues over analysis of the cost of capital. We estimate that for every dollar raised in new finance, seven dollars of existing debts need to be rolled each year. Re-financing crises hit us more and more regularly. Hence, the importance of liquidity. So, what now? According to our monitoring of liquidity data, we have just passed the point of maximum tightness. The two most important central banks driving the global liquidity cycle are the US Federal Reserve and the People’s Bank of China. Think of the Fed as mainly controlling the tempo of financial markets, given the dominance of the dollar, whereas China’s large economic footprint gives the PBoC huge influence over the world business cycle. In short, the stock market’s price-earnings multiple is determined in Washington and its earnings Beijing. The Chinese market enjoyed a large jump in liquidity injections in November, led by the start of an easier monetary policy from the PBoC. Contrary to the consensus view, latest data also show the US Federal Reserve adding back liquidity into dollar markets, despite its ongoing QT policy. Admittedly, the Fed has reduced its holdings of US Treasuries in seven of the past nine weeks as part of QT. But net liquidity provision, benchmarked by moves in the Fed’s “effective” balance sheet, has remarkably risen in six of these weeks. In fact, the Fed added an impressive $157bn to US money markets through its operations. Looking ahead, we project a further pick-up in global liquidity. China desperately needs to boost its lockdown-hit economy, so expect further policy stimulus in 2023. Two other favourable factors are the lower US dollar and weaker oil prices. We estimate that each percentage point fall in the dollar increases the take-up of cross-border loans and credit by a similar percentage amount. The US currency is already down a hefty 9 per cent from its recent peak. The fall in oil prices to below $80 a barrel should also help, reducing the amount of credit required to finance transactions. But there could be more. The US Fed plans to reduce its holdings of Treasury and government agency securities by $95bn per month. But other items are likely to offset some of, perhaps even, all of this. First, the $450bn Treasury General Account, the US government’s deposit account at the Fed, is likely to fall as bills are paid ahead of difficult upcoming debt ceiling negotiations. Second, the Fed’s $2.52tn “reverse repo” facility for providing short-term investment to parties such as money market funds could drop significantly. This is because there are hints that the Treasury will issue more bills, debt of less than one-year maturity, relative to bonds which have longer terms. Third, rising interest rates mean the Fed will pay out more on debt it has issued. This could amount to a whopping $200bn over 2023. The September turmoil in the UK gilt market was a reminder of the risks of financial instability when liquidity is withdrawn. Mindful of such forces, could the Fed be reluctant to push liquidity down too much? One could argue that by winding back its portfolio of Treasuries (“official QT”), but allowing effective liquidity provision to rise (“unofficial QE”), the Fed is trying to have its cake and eat it! Whichever, it surely shows that QT is harder to achieve in practice than in theory. Stealth QE may be back next year and make what looks to be a difficult year feel a tad better.
    https://www.ft.com/content/64b3d0b6-e0be-4e8c-9b20-c595428267d5
    timing the markets is just too tough
     
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  43. Sportfan

    Sportfan From Six to Dumptime
    San Antonio SpursHouston TexansNew Mexico State AggiesTexas AandM Aggies

    Curious how everyone feels like they’re doing vs inflation. I’ve been doing my best to leverage credit card points, buy generic/bulk, and negotiate what I can. I feel like I’ve kept my grocery costs fairly even with the AmEx Blue Cash Preferred and switching to generic items where I can. Nothing too crazy or obsessive but does make a small difference for passive effort.

    Just had a nice “win” of keeping my rent the same vs the 3% increase my complex first sent. Merely took a single email. Since rent is 60% of my bare minimum expenses that really keeps inflation at a minimum.

    Car insurance was the one item that really skyrocketed last year, up 30% YoY. Tried to negotiate and Geico laughed at me.
     
    Ty Webb, construxboy, fish and 4 others like this.
  44. ScFan27

    ScFan27 Well-Known Member
    South Carolina GamecocksNew York YankeesNew York JetsNew York Rangers

    Other than my rent increasing by 10%, I haven’t noticed it too much living in NYC. Everything has always been expensive so paying $2 more for a dozen eggs isn’t killing me. Not a great time to have to pay for a portion of my wedding though!
     
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  45. Lyrtch

    Lyrtch My second favorite meat is hamburger
    Staff Donor

    nothing bad here except in the LUXURY sphere, flights are more expensive

    dodged the rent chaos by buying at just the right time
     
    Sportfan likes this.
  46. jcb-r

    jcb-r Well-Known Member
    Donor
    Rutgers Scarlet KnightsNew York MetsBrooklyn NetsTennessee TitansNew Jersey Devils

    x2
     
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  47. dukebuckeye

    dukebuckeye I’m OK with your low opinion of me.
    Donor TMB OG
    Ohio State BuckeyesCleveland BrownsColumbus Blue JacketsCleveland CavaliersCleveland Indians

    Trying to make more and/or killing my wife.
     
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  48. fish

    fish Impossible, Germany
    Donor
    Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles RamsLos Angeles KingsSouthern California Trojans

    I'll just say that your concern for all things fiscal as it relates to your life is impressive. I'm turning the corner on 50 and naturally more inclined to get my ducks in a row for the end game. I think you're mid/late 30's? Clearly, you are building a very strong foundation. (tips cap)
     
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  49. Sportfan

    Sportfan From Six to Dumptime
    San Antonio SpursHouston TexansNew Mexico State AggiesTexas AandM Aggies

    Sigh Jerome, guess I’m all aboard the money market train now. Gonna be 5% soon enough.
     
  50. C A N E

    C A N E Let justice be done though the heavens fall
    Donor
    Miami HurricanesMiami Heat

    Still sitting on 60% cash - waiting for something.