Well, for a few years I had a twitter account where I posted plays...I think some people here followed..not completely sure...Anyway, I no longer have access to that account so I guess this is as good as any place to keep track of season long bets. Week 1 (picks were posted in one of the threads here)...since I don't know the kind of money people are playing with, I'll just assume every bet is to make $100 (where juice is -) or for $100 (where juice is +) ... starting with $5000 week 1: +440 week 2: +1050 week 3: -295 week 4: +119 week 5: -10 week 6: +168 week 7: +827.50 week 8: +583 (132-115; 53%)
week 1 Baylor +9 (w) +100 Baylor +4 (w) +100 Baylor +160 (w) +160 Ole Miss +4 (w) +100 Midd Tenn St +14.5 (w) +100 ECU +21 (w) +100 Indiana -6 (l) -110 Colorado +7.5 (l) -110 Michigan o60 (n/a) 0 RESULT: +440 (6-2)
week 2 @ √ PICK: UT -5 ... Cincy covered easy. Tennessee failed to cover (depending on where you caught the line). Tyler Bray is set to take the next step. Bearcats a little overwhelmed in Neyland. Line is already at -7. Recommend this to -9, not that I expect it to get there.
I followed you on Twitter. Always solid. If you don't mind me asking, why don't you have access to that account now?
I can't remember the password and the email associated with the account was deleted a long time ago...when I still knew the password..now I'm pretty much screwed with that unless it just hits me some random day.
I probably will...but the people following won't know anyway...I'd have to build the list back up..right now, this is adequate.
@ Line: ASU -7.5 Game is a bit intriguing..Neither team covered in week 1. Missouri offense looks inefficient compared to recent years..Defense is better than average. Playing at ASU isn't that tough but the heat could be a factor. Pac teams suck OOC. I believe ASU is an unranked home team favored over a ranked team. Thinking the value is with the devils, but I don't trust them... Initially leaning toward missouri...now I'm probably staying away. X no action
@ Line: Stan -20.5 Stanford covered while Duke lost outright. Stanford traveling across the country. Luck is the best qb in the country...public loves the cardinal this year...they're a solid team, probably no more than 2 losses. They don't mind running it up. For all these reasons, I think Duke is the only play possible in this game. Haven't taken it...might not in the end, but Stanford is a definite no play. X no action
@ Line: Louisville -4 You might notice a trend, almost every game I'm looking at features a road team that covered week 1 facing a home team that lost ATS. My focus is always on value and finding where it lies. I think both of these teams are on the rise, but on the rise in the sun belt is a little different than on the rise in the big east. FIU coach should probably be at miami now...Louisville qb is little guy who started as a walk on...this is fiu only road game in first five...ty hilton is probably the best player on the field..louisville ol outweighs fiu dl by an average of 302 to 262... √ L (FIU DL was dominant athletically despite size differential. Charlie Strong is in over his head) Pick: Louisville -4
For some reason your helmet pictures aren't working correctly. But when I right click and open picture in new tab, they show up just fine. Weird.
Yeah I have no idea what the deal is with that...so when I get to my computer I'll try something different
@ Line: SDSU -10 So, SDSU beat the line by 2 against Cal Poly while Army lost by 23 as a 10 point dog. Northern Illinois is comparable to SDSU in terms of talent. I would imagine Army is better than Cal Poly, though I'm not up on FCS teams. Army is probably bottom 20 FBS teams this year, but..and this is key, you have a west coast team traveling to the east for a 12pm start. In the NFL, this sort of thing is money. CFB is more determined by physical talent, meaning a far superior team can over come that, but it's still a factor. SDSU has a beast QB, but they gave up 150 yards to CP on the ground. Army just put up 300 on the ground against NIU. Army defense is a bit slow and I would think SDSU will rack up points. Line is moving toward Army, as some places have it at 9.5 now. X no action
@ Line: Miss St -7 Alright, continuing the theme...Miss St pummeled Memphis, giving backers an easy ATS victory. Auburn is lucky to even have a win, the cover wasn't going to happen a good 3 minutes into this game. Problem for Auburn is that they had no answer for the Utah St ground game, and seemed to get pushed around all day. Now they get Miss St? That's a bit of a step up there. Even in the decisive victory, Miss St defense seems to be a bit vulnerable itself. Now they travel to the farm or the plains or whatever they call Auburn. Auburn has done well in SEC openers, they haven't done well covering as a favorite of more than a TD, luckily they aren't the favorite here. I have to wonder is Miss St really ready to be a road favorite against an SEC team that isn't Kentucky or Vandy? But what did anyone see out of Auburn that makes you think they will slow the Bulldogs down? Personally, I think a TD is pushing it, and unless this line comes down a couple points, I will probably end up with the Tigers on the ticket. Too good to pass up. √ W got the ML win as well. Pick: Auburn +7
I am pretty sure that Cal Poly runs a triple option offense, similar to what Army runs. Rich Ellerson, Army's HC, came from SLO a few years ago.
@ Line: NYG -3 This game stands out to me. I guess we'll see how my senses are for the 2011 NFL season, but coming out of the preseason I feel like the Redskins are the most under valued team in the league. The Giants on the other hand, I can't really get a read on. Some games they look good others not so much. They go as Eli goes. And I don't think he's going very far. Since it's opening week, and quite frankly the NFL is a freaking rubic's cube to figure out, I'm playing all NFL games this week at half what I outlined in the OP for CFB. So bet to win $50 (- juice) or bet $50 to win (+ juice). √ W (this has me pretty excited because I had it penciled in all preseason and it hit..easy. Think I'm riding with them all season) Pick: WAS +3
I would have to guess Army does it better or with better players. Though admittedly I have no idea what is going on at Cal Poly.
@ Line: Bama -10 Alabama toyed with Kent St and got the cover all while turning the ball over 5 times. Penn St meanwhile showed Indiana St who is boss, but not quite enough. Alabama hasn't played a game like this, true road game OOC, since maybe UCLA 10 years ago or so it'll be interesting to see how they respond. Penn State is pretty good ball club, usually good for 2-3 losses and 10 or so wins. QB questions still need to be answered, but that's both teams to be honest. Alabama's defense is without question the best that PSU will face all season. Same isn't true for Bama. But it should be enough to cause problems. No action yet..line is actually on the move down. Might have to lock it in soon, but I'm just not quite ready to yet. No chance I take Alabama though. There's not much support for that side. X no action
@ Line: Wisconsin -21.5 I don't know if this qualifies as a ATS loser vs ATS winner...Wisconsin did cover the earlier line vs UNLV (32.5) but pushed the most common number (34)....But we know Ore St lost outright to Sac St, which is about as negative as you get going into week 2. Even if you say Wisc didn't cover, everybody watching the game feels that they could have named their score. The troubling thing for Badgers fans has to be their defense which let UNLV get 17 points. Ore St has a much better offense than UNLV but under Mike Riley they suck on the road OOC. The line has already gone up 2 points. I don't trust Wisc to not give up backdoor. I don't trust Ore St to keep Wisc in the 50's. I think I'll pass on this one. Went into it thinking Ore St might be a play but I almost talked myself into Wisconsin which means I will sit it out. X no action
I don't use units or anything like that. A game is either action or no action. If a play is worth let's say 8 units and another is worth 1...why not make the 8 unit a 9 unit and just skip the 1? So, if I have action on it means it was one I weeded out if you will. If you really want some kind of breakdown, think of it like the √ are 5 units or more and the X are 4 units or less...where the X get eliminated for me.
@ Line: So Car -3 Neither team covered. SoCar looked bad in the first half, but got it together and for all intents and purposed should have won ATS. Defense made splash plays and stepped up when needed. Offense was entirely different with Garcia. Georgia lost and seemed to be thoroughly dominated by Boise. For my money, Boise is better top to bottom than SoCar and Murray did play admirably. Mark Richt is on his way out if they don't turn it around. SoCar hasn't been a road favorite against an SEC team (not vandy or Kentucky) in over 12 years. Not sure they deserve it here either. Not sure we'll see this line get any higher, in fact if anything I'd guess it might close at -2. Value on the Bulldogs, not locked in yet. X no action
@ Line: Ohio St -19.5 Both teams covered last week. Toledo vs FCS school, OSU vs a MAC foe. Toledo is no Akron. Their offense is about as good as you'll find at that level. Toledo OL averages 298 vs an OSU DL that averages 293, should allow for some drives resulting in some points. Game is set for a 34.5 - 15.5 score. OSU still has issues with the suspension, guys might be overlooking another "mac" school. Would be surprised if Toledo isn't mid 20's. Thinking about the over as well, but I'm more comfortable with betting sides than totals. √ W Pick: Toledo +19.5
Louisville 2H -3.5 (W; +100) Tennessee -5 (W; +100) Rutgers +10 (W; +100) Auburn +7 (W; +100) Auburn +220 (W; +220) Toledo +19.5 (W; +100) Stanford 2H -10 (W; +100) WF +120 (W; +120) Washington -5.5 (W; +100) Redskins +3 (W; +100) Redskins -3.5 +200 (W; +200) Rams o43 (W; +100) Bears o40.5 (W; +100) Chargers 2H -6 (W; +100) Cowboys +6.5 (W; +100) Cowboys 2H +6.5 (W; +100) Broncos o42.5 (W; +100) Broncos 2H -3 (W; +100) WIN: +2040 Louisville -4 (L; -110) Missouri +300 (L; -100) Ohio St 2H -7 (L; -110) Iowa u43.5 (L; -110) Duke +21 (L; -110) ND -3 (L; -110) Seahawks/Rams/Redskins/Colts ML parlay 84-1 (L; -10) Chiefs 2H -3.5 (L; -110) Dolphins +7.5 (L; -110) Dolphins +300 (L; -100) LOSS: -990 RESULT: 18-10 that's it for the week. (until something loses and I chase it in a panic) (which I did)
I look forward to following this all season long. Do you do any of the college pick'ems on Yahoo/ESPN?
@ Line: o/u 49 A word of caution here. I'm awful picking totals. I mean awful. I mean if you took my record for the past 5 years, it's 8 games below .500...and .500 is already below the magical .523. It's bad. But, I do some times get hunches and feelings and desires to play one of these things, it's like crack for my addiction. Now with all that aside, I am heavily leaning to the over in this game. I recognize it as a square play, based solely on last week's TCU game vs Baylor, but when a team scores a bunch and looks like it couldn't stop 11 of us, I mean how do you not jump on it? Well, it's not something I've played yet. Maybe someone will talk me off the ledge. Just putting it out there that I'm looking at this. X no action
printsofla. It might be private, I don't know...if you can't see it, I can just post those picks here.
Have you kept track of your ATS record the last few seasons? If I remember correctly I think you hit 60% or above like 2 of the last 3 years right?
Yeah..last year I think I eeked out one or two games below .500. The three years before that were 2007: .623 2008: .684 2009: .553 2010: .488 talk about shattering an ego Need more 2008s...fewer 2010s
@ Line: o/u 43.5 Well, this series has gone under 7 straight times. You have to go back to 2003 for the last time the total in this game went above this year's number. Thing about trends like this, I always say ride em till they lose. I honestly don't know if anyone just looks at my picks and bets them blindly. No matter what you think of a person's opinion that isn't wise. This total is great example. The under trend is enough for me to take it. Just know if you follow this one, there isn't much else behind it. Obviously, Iowa lost a few pieces on offense and ISU offense isn't very potent, things that also point to an under. √ L Pick: u43.5
I look at a bunch of websites...that game (stanford) is being touted as the biggest lock on all of them....I already had an initial lean to duke...there isn't any new info on the teams themselves.