Anybody else see these lines as being retarded? Wisky -18 v Oregon State. MST -2 v Aub. SC -1.5 v Georgia Several others as well. All these are at least a TD off imo. WTF? http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/?s=513
I'm guessing Vegas thinks OSU, AU, and UGA are better than they showed yesterday. That said, I'll be on USCe and MSU as soon as I can.
I don't think they are a TD off, but I thought MSU and USCe would be favored by 4-6 instead of 1-2. AU and UGA are both at home, though.
yeah on a neutral field i think they would be. But home field is worth about 4 points for both UGA and AU. Gotta be careful not to overreact to week 1. I'm gonna take advantage of the day off tomorrow to have a long look at the openers, but I wouldnt be in a huge hurry to bet S.Carolina
Well lets see... OSU lost to Sacramento St. . Aub should have lost to Utah St. SC should be a 2 td fave @ GA. Lines are fucked up this week.
there aren't too many DD road favorites in the SEC outside if teams playing Vanderbilt. Dont get too carried away. One week does not a season make. Wisconsin is the beneficiary of the ESPN hype train right now too, so don't let that sway you. with all that said, lines look to be on the move from what you posted, MSU especially.
These are where I'd place my lines if I could change them. Wisconsin -14.5 MSU -2.5 (I think this line was about right, just looking at what Auburn lost and State has) SC -1/Pick (I think S. Carolina got saved by E. Carolina being horrible in that last quarter and a half. Georgia is better than what they did against Boise, but not a lot better) I think a lot of people put a lot into Week 1 but I don't see these being that far off. The only one that is a bit much is Wisconsin, but Mississippi State and South Carolina look to be around where they should be. Favored but not heavily favored.
I put shit for stock in the lines. Watched a ton of week 1 football and if capped these lines are as off as any I have ever seen. Have several as much as a TD off.
Something that may be of interest... Teams that didn't cover week 1 vs teams that did cover Arizona @ Ok St -14.5 FIU @ Louisville -4 Hawaii @ Washington -3 SDSU @ Army +10 Miss St @ Auburn +6 Stanford @ Duke +20 Cincy @ Tennessee * -6 USM @ Marshall * NMexSt @ Minn -18.5 Cal @ Col +4 Temple @ Akron +13.5 Ore St @ Wisc * -18.5 UNLV @ Wazzu * -14 ULL @ Kent St -9.5 Virginia @ Indiana +7 BYU @ Texas -6 Mem @ Ark St -14 Hou @ UNT +22.5 ND @ Michigan * +4.5 BC @ UCF -6.5 Bold = team that covered...* = game either pushed or was called early...(I don't see a line for the Marshall game yet). There's 12 home teams that failed to cover playing teams that did. I would imagine that there's some value here.
Nice, I should have split my big parlays into smaller ones. I had a 12 and a 10 lol. Still went 15-3 for the day. Just had a loss in both parlays. I was 2 points from hitting my 12. BYU should have kicked that fucking field goal at the end.
yeah, I mean anything in the black is a decent day. I should have taken that Miami of Oh game I mentioned...15-3 is elite stuff...
Ha, Yea, I stayed away from it. 15-3 is a lot of luck ha. Texas scoring a late touchdown covered. E. Carolina scoring late covered. So I had a lot of luck going on Saturday, won't put those numbers up again all year ha.
why does ND get so much respect? I don't bet their games any more, they've burned me too many times (taking them and they blow it)..but they're going on the road and I didn't see anything that makes me think Michigan won't win that game.
don't be mislead by the ND score from this week. They absolutely dominated in terms of moving the ball, but a lot of weird things happened in that game. I was on USF and glad to get the win, but I'd urge caution. I know that several people hit that number for ND as soon as it came out
I agree with this. Notre Dame turned the ball over 5 times Saturday, but still had over 500 yards of offense. Michigan was fortunate to have 2 defensive touchdowns in that game (one which was a 94 INT return), or that could have been a completely different game. People always seem to overreact based on what happened in the previous week. Will be keeping an eye on the line movement in this one.
I watched ND and they did move the ball. But I think a night game in Michigan has to be a plus. If ND stays favored I'll drop a unit or two on Michigan to make it interesting for me.
I'm all but convinced these 3 plays a sucker bets. Stan -21 Wisky -20 Mich +4 Public is pounding these plays with the lines being very slow to move. Ironically the teams they'll be playing are the only 3 that lost to DDRDs this week. Prob gonna play all the short lines this week.
That's how it works. Not sure if you cap games or not but look at both games and come up with what you believe is a fair line or how many points it would take for you to bet on Dook or Oregon St. If it's within a TD of the Vegas line then one of us is doing it wrong. Seriously not trying to scare anyone off of any plays. I'm not a professional gambler so take any of my suggestions with a grain of salt, I sometimes pick losers just like everybody else.
I may be dumb but I took a few games. Could be sucker bets on some of them, but I just feel these coming. Again I went 15-3 last week so I'm probably just feeling a little too high on my own picks but whatever. Thursday: Ok St -14.5 (Arizona is a good team, but I think Oklahoma has enough offense to pull away late) Friday: Louisville -4 (FIU is a pretty decent team but at home, I feel like Louisville can win by more than 4) On Saturday I put together a 5 team parlay I feel pretty confident on. TCU -2 (off a loss, defense was thrashed, they will respond by stopping an Air Force triple option attack) Wisconsin -22 (they will pour it on given the chance) Tennessee -7 (at home should be able to cover the 7) Texas -7 (BYU was only in the game last week because Ole Miss let them in, Texas is better than Ole Miss) Northern Illinois -6 (bought the points)
Would love some input on my picks and if you guys could refer some more. Stanford confuses me, VA Tech scares me, Ohio St seems easy, Oregon will take out last weeks loss on a mediocre Nevada team and will pour on points for the voters(Same with TCU)
I'd be careful with TCU. AF played shitty last week and bascially admitted they were looking ahead to TCU. Huge game for AF. The last few meetings at AF have been very close, and that's when TCU was dominant. Senior QB Jefferson is a good quarterback. I'll probably go with the senior lead team as a home dog against a green TCU team.
Not saying this won't happen but remember VT after they lost to Boise last year, they lost to JMU. You have to think Oregon just had all hopes of a title dashed. There is very little chance they can get to #1 or #2 even if they run the table. Beware of the let down. Also, fwiw, waaaaaay too many people think they will rebound this week and destroy Nevada although it could very well happen. BOL either way.
I like Oregon a lot. Loss Hangover aside, Nevada lost every bit of offense they've had for the last 3 years when they've been good. They are about to plunge back into the lower-tier WAC which even a sour grapes Ducks team should be able to handle. Not to mention a new QB making his 2nd start in Oregons hostile enviro
Nevada's been a decent team since Ault came back in 04. No doubt Oregon will win and score some points but I don't think they can stop Nevada *edit consistently. Over may be a good play as well.
Yea. Some iffy picks like TCU and trusting Texas after barely covering last week. I feel pretty good going into Saturday. Ill feel better tomorrow night if Ok St covers so I know my luck is still going. Louisville on Friday better not break up the good luck I've had lately ha.
Week 1= 6-0 I know, . Same here. Week 2 plays= Ore St. +20 Dook +20.5 AF -1 Nev +26.5 Cin +4.5 Georgia +3 BYU +7 ND -3 Miss St -5.5 Way too many people on Auburn imo. Should have been a trap bet, don't think it is. A very rare parley for me: Cin ML Georgia ML BYU ML 1U to win 20U Input is always appreciated but I've already locked in these plays so there's no going back. BOL this week guys.
Well, Louisville fucked me on my good luck but that's fine. 16-4 on the year. Have a 5 game parlay tomorrow, and some singles. Will be interesting to see how it all plays out.
went in on these 4 Pending 9/10/11 4:30pm College Football 351 South Carolina -2½ -115* vs Georgia Pending 9/10/11 8:00pm College Football 374 Central Florida -7 -125* vs Boston College Pending 9/10/11 8:00pm College Football 375 Notre Dame -3 -125* vs Michigan Pending 9/10/11 7:00pm College Football 387 Georgia Tech -10½ -118* vs Middle Tenn State I don't think Vegas has picked up on Tech having 2 good option QB's this year, already up by 21 at the half. And as much as I hate to say it, Michigan's gonna need more than 1 recruiting class to get better talent in on D.
Just sweating out the Notre Dame game right now to hit my parlay. Iowa St. +7 vs. Iowa....check Toledo +19 vs. Ohio St........check NMSU +23 vs. Minnesota.....check S. Carolina -3 vs. Georgia.......push Notre Dame -3 vs. Michigan.....pending