Week 2, where John Q Public gets rich.

Discussion in 'Gambling Board' started by theel, Sep 4, 2011.

  1. Black Falcon

    Black Falcon Carnivore and Voyeur
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  2. dblplay1212

    dblplay1212 Well-Known Member
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    Alabama Crimson TideNew York YankeesJacksonville Jaguars2pacSneakersFormula 1

    I'm guessing Vegas thinks OSU, AU, and UGA are better than they showed yesterday. That said, I'll be on USCe and MSU as soon as I can.
     
  3. Nantucket

    Nantucket Northeastern Elitism+Alabama Downhome Sensibility
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    Alabama Crimson TideNew England Patriots

  4. dblplay1212

    dblplay1212 Well-Known Member
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    Alabama Crimson TideNew York YankeesJacksonville Jaguars2pacSneakersFormula 1

    I don't think they are a TD off, but I thought MSU and USCe would be favored by 4-6 instead of 1-2. AU and UGA are both at home, though.
     
  5. Nantucket

    Nantucket Northeastern Elitism+Alabama Downhome Sensibility
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    Alabama Crimson TideNew England Patriots

    yeah on a neutral field i think they would be. But home field is worth about 4 points for both UGA and AU. Gotta be careful not to overreact to week 1. I'm gonna take advantage of the day off tomorrow to have a long look at the openers, but I wouldnt be in a huge hurry to bet S.Carolina
     
  6. Black Falcon

    Black Falcon Carnivore and Voyeur
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    Well lets see... OSU lost to Sacramento St. . Aub should have lost to Utah St. SC should be a 2 td fave @ GA. Lines are fucked up this week.
     
  7. dblplay1212

    dblplay1212 Well-Known Member
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    Alabama Crimson TideNew York YankeesJacksonville Jaguars2pacSneakersFormula 1

    theel, you're putting too much stock into Week 1.
     
  8. Nantucket

    Nantucket Northeastern Elitism+Alabama Downhome Sensibility
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    Alabama Crimson TideNew England Patriots

    there aren't too many DD road favorites in the SEC outside if teams playing Vanderbilt. Dont get too carried away. One week does not a season make. Wisconsin is the beneficiary of the ESPN hype train right now too, so don't let that sway you.

    with all that said, lines look to be on the move from what you posted, MSU especially.
     
  9. King_Of_Expo_Park

    King_Of_Expo_Park Well-Known Member

    Those aren't actual lines....
     
  10. Joey Freshwater

    Joey Freshwater Slingin The Pipe Since 75
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    Alabama Crimson Tide

    These are where I'd place my lines if I could change them.

    Wisconsin -14.5
    MSU -2.5 (I think this line was about right, just looking at what Auburn lost and State has)
    SC -1/Pick (I think S. Carolina got saved by E. Carolina being horrible in that last quarter and a half. Georgia is better than what they did against Boise, but not a lot better)

    I think a lot of people put a lot into Week 1 but I don't see these being that far off. The only one that is a bit much is Wisconsin, but Mississippi State and South Carolina look to be around where they should be. Favored but not heavily favored.
     
  11. Black Falcon

    Black Falcon Carnivore and Voyeur
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    I put shit for stock in the lines. Watched a ton of week 1 football and if capped these lines are as off as any I have ever seen. Have several as much as a TD off.
     
  12. King_Of_Expo_Park

    King_Of_Expo_Park Well-Known Member

    Tennessee
    Louisville
    Mizzou

    Stand out to me initially
     
    theel likes this.
  13. Black Falcon

    Black Falcon Carnivore and Voyeur
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    We're either gonna get paid or fucked this week. Hope it's paid.
     
  14. King_Of_Expo_Park

    King_Of_Expo_Park Well-Known Member

    Something that may be of interest...

    Teams that didn't cover week 1 vs teams that did cover

    Arizona @ Ok St -14.5
    FIU @ Louisville -4
    Hawaii @ Washington -3
    SDSU @ Army +10
    Miss St @ Auburn +6
    Stanford @ Duke +20
    Cincy @ Tennessee * -6
    USM @ Marshall *
    NMexSt @ Minn -18.5
    Cal @ Col +4
    Temple @ Akron +13.5
    Ore St @ Wisc * -18.5
    UNLV @ Wazzu * -14
    ULL @ Kent St -9.5
    Virginia @ Indiana +7
    BYU @ Texas -6
    Mem @ Ark St -14
    Hou @ UNT +22.5
    ND @ Michigan * +4.5
    BC @ UCF -6.5

    Bold = team that covered...* = game either pushed or was called early...(I don't see a line for the Marshall game yet). There's 12 home teams that failed to cover playing teams that did. I would imagine that there's some value here.
     
  15. Joey Freshwater

    Joey Freshwater Slingin The Pipe Since 75
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    Alabama Crimson Tide

    What'd you end up going for the day on Saturday?
     
  16. King_Of_Expo_Park

    King_Of_Expo_Park Well-Known Member

    3-2-n/a..but the n/a would have been a loss more than likely so I was saved by the bad weather.
     
  17. Joey Freshwater

    Joey Freshwater Slingin The Pipe Since 75
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    Alabama Crimson Tide

    Nice, I should have split my big parlays into smaller ones. I had a 12 and a 10 lol. Still went 15-3 for the day. Just had a loss in both parlays. I was 2 points from hitting my 12. BYU should have kicked that fucking field goal at the end.
     
  18. King_Of_Expo_Park

    King_Of_Expo_Park Well-Known Member

    yeah, I mean anything in the black is a decent day. I should have taken that Miami of Oh game I mentioned...15-3 is elite stuff...
     
  19. Joey Freshwater

    Joey Freshwater Slingin The Pipe Since 75
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    Alabama Crimson Tide

    Ha, Yea, I stayed away from it. 15-3 is a lot of luck ha. Texas scoring a late touchdown covered. E. Carolina scoring late covered. So I had a lot of luck going on Saturday, won't put those numbers up again all year ha.
     
  20. King_Of_Expo_Park

    King_Of_Expo_Park Well-Known Member

    why does ND get so much respect? I don't bet their games any more, they've burned me too many times (taking them and they blow it)..but they're going on the road and I didn't see anything that makes me think Michigan won't win that game.
     
  21. Joey Freshwater

    Joey Freshwater Slingin The Pipe Since 75
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    Alabama Crimson Tide

    Michigan is my big pick this week. I think they will dismantle ND. A home game at night....oh noes
     
  22. TAS

    TAS 20_ _ TMB Poster of the Year
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    ND is favored? WTF

    by 4.5? WTFF
     
  23. Nantucket

    Nantucket Northeastern Elitism+Alabama Downhome Sensibility
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    Alabama Crimson TideNew England Patriots

    don't be mislead by the ND score from this week. They absolutely dominated in terms of moving the ball, but a lot of weird things happened in that game. I was on USF and glad to get the win, but I'd urge caution. I know that several people hit that number for ND as soon as it came out
     
  24. Alshon

    Alshon Well-Known Member
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    South Carolina Gamecocks

    I agree with this. Notre Dame turned the ball over 5 times Saturday, but still had over 500 yards of offense. Michigan was fortunate to have 2 defensive touchdowns in that game (one which was a 94 INT return), or that could have been a completely different game. People always seem to overreact based on what happened in the previous week. Will be keeping an eye on the line movement in this one.
     
  25. Joey Freshwater

    Joey Freshwater Slingin The Pipe Since 75
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    Alabama Crimson Tide

    I watched ND and they did move the ball. But I think a night game in Michigan has to be a plus. If ND stays favored I'll drop a unit or two on Michigan to make it interesting for me.
     
  26. Black Falcon

    Black Falcon Carnivore and Voyeur
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    I'm all but convinced these 3 plays a sucker bets.

    Stan -21
    Wisky -20
    Mich +4

    Public is pounding these plays with the lines being very slow to move. Ironically the teams they'll be playing are the only 3 that lost to DDRDs this week. Prob gonna play all the short lines this week.
     
  27. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta BravesAustin FC

    I hope stanford and wisc aren't sucker bets... I will be on both of them.
     
  28. Black Falcon

    Black Falcon Carnivore and Voyeur
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    That's how it works. Not sure if you cap games or not but look at both games and come up with what you believe is a fair line or how many points it would take for you to bet on Dook or Oregon St. If it's within a TD of the Vegas line then one of us is doing it wrong.

    Seriously not trying to scare anyone off of any plays. I'm not a professional gambler so take any of my suggestions with a grain of salt, I sometimes pick losers just like everybody else.
     
  29. comrade static

    comrade static i love french fries
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    Oklahoma City ThunderPhiladelphia EaglesTampa Bay BuccaneersOklahoma SoonersBarAndGrillBig 8 Conference

    they feel/look like sucker bets to me. too good to be true type of lines
     
  30. Joey Freshwater

    Joey Freshwater Slingin The Pipe Since 75
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    Alabama Crimson Tide

    I may be dumb but I took a few games. Could be sucker bets on some of them, but I just feel these coming. Again I went 15-3 last week so I'm probably just feeling a little too high on my own picks but whatever.

    Thursday:
    Ok St -14.5 (Arizona is a good team, but I think Oklahoma has enough offense to pull away late)

    Friday:
    Louisville -4 (FIU is a pretty decent team but at home, I feel like Louisville can win by more than 4)

    On Saturday I put together a 5 team parlay I feel pretty confident on.

    TCU -2 (off a loss, defense was thrashed, they will respond by stopping an Air Force triple option attack)
    Wisconsin -22 (they will pour it on given the chance)
    Tennessee -7 (at home should be able to cover the 7)
    Texas -7 (BYU was only in the game last week because Ole Miss let them in, Texas is better than Ole Miss)
    Northern Illinois -6 (bought the points)
     
  31. Joey Freshwater

    Joey Freshwater Slingin The Pipe Since 75
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    Alabama Crimson Tide

    Would love some input on my picks and if you guys could refer some more. Stanford confuses me, VA Tech scares me, Ohio St seems easy, Oregon will take out last weeks loss on a mediocre Nevada team and will pour on points for the voters(Same with TCU)
     
  32. Alshon

    Alshon Well-Known Member
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    South Carolina Gamecocks

    I'd be careful with TCU. AF played shitty last week and bascially admitted they were looking ahead to TCU. Huge game for AF. The last few meetings at AF have been very close, and that's when TCU was dominant. Senior QB Jefferson is a good quarterback. I'll probably go with the senior lead team as a home dog against a green TCU team.
     
  33. Black Falcon

    Black Falcon Carnivore and Voyeur
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    Not saying this won't happen but remember VT after they lost to Boise last year, they lost to JMU. You have to think Oregon just had all hopes of a title dashed. There is very little chance they can get to #1 or #2 even if they run the table. Beware of the let down. Also, fwiw, waaaaaay too many people think they will rebound this week and destroy Nevada although it could very well happen. BOL either way.
     
  34. King_Of_Expo_Park

    King_Of_Expo_Park Well-Known Member

    They beat them pretty bad last season, no?
     
  35. Alshon

    Alshon Well-Known Member
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    South Carolina Gamecocks

    Yeah, this series has been a lost closer in Colorado though.
     
  36. TLAU

    TLAU Dog Crew
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    Auburn TigersAtlanta BravesAustin FC

    I like Oregon a lot. Loss Hangover aside, Nevada lost every bit of offense they've had for the last 3 years when they've been good. They are about to plunge back into the lower-tier WAC which even a sour grapes Ducks team should be able to handle. Not to mention a new QB making his 2nd start in Oregons hostile enviro
     
  37. King_Of_Expo_Park

    King_Of_Expo_Park Well-Known Member

    I think the tcu over might have some value
     
  38. Black Falcon

    Black Falcon Carnivore and Voyeur
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    Nevada's been a decent team since Ault came back in 04. No doubt Oregon will win and score some points but I don't think they can stop Nevada *edit consistently. Over may be a good play as well.
     
  39. CC

    CC Waiting for moments that never come
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    Miami HurricanesLos Angeles Dodgers

    I'm digging that parlay
     
  40. Joey Freshwater

    Joey Freshwater Slingin The Pipe Since 75
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    Alabama Crimson Tide

    Yea. Some iffy picks like TCU and trusting Texas after barely covering last week. I feel pretty good going into Saturday. Ill feel better tomorrow night if Ok St covers so I know my luck is still going. Louisville on Friday better not break up the good luck I've had lately ha.
     
  41. CC

    CC Waiting for moments that never come
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    Miami HurricanesLos Angeles Dodgers

    :blowup:
     
  42. King_Of_Expo_Park

    King_Of_Expo_Park Well-Known Member

    alright...might have to chase...in Chuck D voice/ I ain't goin out like that...
     
  43. Black Falcon

    Black Falcon Carnivore and Voyeur
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    Week 1= 6-0 I know, :meh: . Same here.

    Week 2 plays=
    Ore St. +20
    Dook +20.5
    AF -1
    Nev +26.5
    Cin +4.5
    Georgia +3
    BYU +7
    ND -3

    Miss St -5.5 Way too many people on Auburn imo. Should have been a trap bet, don't think it is.

    A very rare parley for me:

    Cin ML
    Georgia ML
    BYU ML
    1U to win 20U

    Input is always appreciated but I've already locked in these plays so there's no going back.
    BOL this week guys. :beerchug:
     
  44. King_Of_Expo_Park

    King_Of_Expo_Park Well-Known Member

    I like every one of those but Tennessee and Auburn (I didn't see your MSU) obviously.
     
  45. Black Falcon

    Black Falcon Carnivore and Voyeur
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    Glad to hear it. Thank you.
     
  46. Joey Freshwater

    Joey Freshwater Slingin The Pipe Since 75
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    Alabama Crimson Tide

    Well, Louisville fucked me on my good luck but that's fine. 16-4 on the year. Have a 5 game parlay tomorrow, and some singles. Will be interesting to see how it all plays out.
     
  47. CC

    CC Waiting for moments that never come
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    Miami HurricanesLos Angeles Dodgers

    Need mizzou to pull it off here :pray:
     
  48. Clubber Lang

    Clubber Lang High Potentate
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    went in on these 4

    Pending 9/10/11 4:30pm College Football 351 South Carolina -2½ -115* vs Georgia
    Pending 9/10/11 8:00pm College Football 374 Central Florida -7 -125* vs Boston College
    Pending 9/10/11 8:00pm College Football 375 Notre Dame -3 -125* vs Michigan
    Pending 9/10/11 7:00pm College Football 387 Georgia Tech -10½ -118* vs Middle Tenn State

    I don't think Vegas has picked up on Tech having 2 good option QB's this year, already up by 21 at the half. And as much as I hate to say it, Michigan's gonna need more than 1 recruiting class to get better talent in on D.
     
  49. petey23

    petey23 Well-Known Member
    Chicago BlackhawksUSA RugbyMaryland TerrapinsPhiladelphia FlyersMinnesota WildMilwaukee Brewers altNebraska Cornhuskers

    Just sweating out the Notre Dame game right now to hit my parlay.
    Iowa St. +7 vs. Iowa....check
    Toledo +19 vs. Ohio St........check
    NMSU +23 vs. Minnesota.....check
    S. Carolina -3 vs. Georgia.......push
    Notre Dame -3 vs. Michigan.....pending
     
  50. TAS

    TAS 20_ _ TMB Poster of the Year
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    you're golden. michigan offense is complete crap at this point