Week 7 College Football

Discussion in 'Gambling Board' started by Debose4Heisman, Oct 7, 2012.

  1. bro

    bro Your Mother’s Favorite Shitposter
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    1. 10/13/2012 3:30 PM College Football 169 Stanford* +255 vs Notre Dame
    2. 10/13/2012 9:00 PM College Football 175 Tennessee U* +130 vs Mississippi State
    3. 10/13/2012 8:00 PM College Football 189 Ohio State* -17 -110 vs Indiana
    Risking $5.00 To Win $72.94
     
  2. captbunch

    captbunch Fan of: Texas Tech, Texas Rangers
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    it is...now Purdue is -2.5
     
  3. FriendsofJtyler

    FriendsofJtyler I strenuously object
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    Purdue is definitely going to be a play for me especially with the public backing an overrated Wisconsin team that is not a good road team.
     
  4. captbunch

    captbunch Fan of: Texas Tech, Texas Rangers
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    me too
     
  5. GuyOnA_Buffalo

    GuyOnA_Buffalo Orphans, Cougars & What Not
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    The WVU line on Betus just dropped from -6x to -4x in the last hour. :feelsbadman:
     
  6. FriendsofJtyler

    FriendsofJtyler I strenuously object
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    Going to be at ACL this weekend so going to lock stuff in earlier this week.

    Most likely what I'm rolling with, and will add some:

    LSU -2.5 (2x)
    Purdue -2
    ASU -22
    Texas A&M -7
    BYU/OSU under 37.5
    Virginia Tech -9.5
    Vanderbilt +8.5
    Texas Tech +4
     
  7. FriendsofJtyler

    FriendsofJtyler I strenuously object
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    Some trends to keep in mind if you are backing South Carolina this weekend:

    - LSU is 19-2 SU in its last 21 games
    - LSU hasnt lost a home game since 2009
    - LSU hasnt lost 2 straight since 2008
     
  8. hamsterdam

    hamsterdam I wish I knew how to quit you.
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    down from 6.5 to 4 on mine. shit.
    Oh well more reason to stay away
     
  9. GuyOnA_Buffalo

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    I already took it at 4. Thought it would keep climbing. Damnit, this is the typical game I like to bet the dog. Oh well, I'm locked in to WVU. I may buy out of it before gametime, but who knows?
     
  10. FadeMe

    FadeMe Well-Known Member
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    Not that it's a big deal because Riley Nelson has starting experience, but Taysom hill is out of this game as well with a torn ACL.
     
  11. King_Of_Expo_Park

    King_Of_Expo_Park Well-Known Member

    With this line, they're all but saying Texas Tech is going to win the game
     
  12. captbunch

    captbunch Fan of: Texas Tech, Texas Rangers
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    As a fan, I hope that happens. As a gambler, I hope that happens
     
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  13. FriendsofJtyler

    FriendsofJtyler I strenuously object
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    Exactly why I'm riding their coattails. They are way smarter than me.
     
  14. GuyOnA_Buffalo

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    Pretty much all I do is bet against the public. But I can't see tech keeping this within 10.
     
  15. Joey Freshwater

    Joey Freshwater Slingin The Pipe Since 75
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    I will probably do a few cheap $5-10 parlays to make this weekend interesting. I doubt I touch the Alabama line. We should cover but its just a rule to not bet your own team. Though with no James Franklin it does seem like a no brainer.

    Any games you guys suggest for a parlay. I'm looking to do a few 4-5 game parlays to go with a few single plays.

    I know parlays are sucker bets but ill never forget last year I put $5 on a 12 team parlay. Knowing I'd lose just to make the first week of football even more interesting. I hit 11 of the 12 and the last game I needed them by 4 and they had the ball, in field goal range with 2 minutes left up by 2. They went for it on 4th and 1 so they could run the clock out. I was disgusted.

    It was something dumb like $5 to win $39,000+ or something. I've forgotten the exact number because I drank myself to death over it. So I've been chasing parlays in hope to get one right just to say I did. The biggest I've ever hit was a 6 team.
     
  16. FriendsofJtyler

    FriendsofJtyler I strenuously object
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    So Oregon State is going to roll out Cody Vaz as their starter, on the road, at a hostile venue, at high altitude against BYU.

    What's Vaz done in his career? 6-17 for 48 yards. So most likely Oregon State is going to try and establish the run game right? Guess who has the #1 rush D in the country?

    BYU

    :grinch:
     
  17. FadeMe

    FadeMe Well-Known Member
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    I like BYU a lot. Should be a low scoring game.
     
  18. captbunch

    captbunch Fan of: Texas Tech, Texas Rangers
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    Line
    Now BYU -6
     
  19. Joey Freshwater

    Joey Freshwater Slingin The Pipe Since 75
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    What's the over?
     
  20. Nantucket

    Nantucket Northeastern Elitism+Alabama Downhome Sensibility
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    locked in:

    LA Tech +8.5 (max play, second this year after ULM vs Auburn)
    Tenny +3.5
    Iowa St +7.5
    Rutgers -7

    buying low and selling high on those dogs
     
  21. hamsterdam

    hamsterdam I wish I knew how to quit you.
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    why la tech? they have to have one of the worst defenses in cfb.
     
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  22. Joey Freshwater

    Joey Freshwater Slingin The Pipe Since 75
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    Does the under seem like the play on the BYU game? BYU has burned me a few times when picking the spread but they play solid defense as does Oregon St. When with Nelson coming back they shouldn't score more than 24 points and I dont see Oregon St scoring more than 10 or so with a backup who's only played football for less than 2 years.

    Also, the Auburn/Ole Miss O/U set at 49.5 seems over would be the play right? Ole Miss is 58th in the country in total defense while Auburn is 77th.

    Ole Miss is giving up 28ppg with one shutout coming against Tulane which kind of skews the stats. While Auburn is giving up 24ppg.

    I guess they are banking on people taking the over because Auburn doesn't have a quarterback but surely they can get 10-14 points on Ole Miss and Ole Miss should be able to score pretty well on Auburn's defense.
     
  23. Nantucket

    Nantucket Northeastern Elitism+Alabama Downhome Sensibility
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    It ranks near the bottom, but they have been able to force turnovers and I think TAMU will oblige them there. The LA Tech offense is just as good if not better than TAMU. Big spot here for LA Tech with a national spotlight and a legitimate chance to go undefeated on the year. This was going to be a large play in Week 1 before the game was postponed, and the spot lines up nicely again in Week 7.
     
  24. wes tegg

    wes tegg I'm a Guy's guy, guys.
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    What do folks think of Utah State +2.5? I've liked that team all year, but I really haven't watched SJSU play yet.
     
  25. TLAU

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    You know we only got 7 on arkansas right? who had previously given up 40s-50s to most of their opponents... just sayin. and that was at home. We could go the whole season without scoring an offensive touchdown on the road.

    I'm also leaning to taking the Under again in the AU/OM game. Due to my statement above. Our defense is playing better. wes tegg does Freeze have a history of running up the score or would he sit on a 24-3 lead?

    I think Under in the BYU game is solid. Oregon state plays tough D. Riley Nelson is HORRIBLE. Not sure I would bet on BYU but that's just me. Guy is aweful.
     
  26. wes tegg

    wes tegg I'm a Guy's guy, guys.
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    He does not, but after last week I doubt he'd take the foot off the gas. I'm not touching anything to do with that game.
     
  27. FadeMe

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    I think I'm going to touch all over Ole Miss. I think they win this game BIG! Auburn is horrible, plus they've been pretty bad on the road, and historically they're bad with kickoffs that start before lunch.

    Since Chizik arrived and not counting the anomaly that was 2010, Auburn is 2-8 on the road in regular season games. They are 0-3 in games that start at 11 AM. They average scoring 16.4 ppg in those 10 away games while allowing 33.5 ppg in those same games. They haven't scored more than 16 in their last 5 away games. In the 11 AM games, they average allowing 36.6 ppg.

    I know Ole Miss isn't as strong defensively as say LSU, but Arkansas's defense was terrible and had its way with Auburn. I see no way Auburn can stop Ole Miss's offense given their struggles against spread offenses since chizik's arrival.

    I think Ole Miss rolls in this game. 34-16
     
  28. wes tegg

    wes tegg I'm a Guy's guy, guys.
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    I hope you're right, but don't discount the WAOM factor. Objectively, though, I think it's a solid bet looking at the numbers and trends. These are just the two teams I follow the closest, so I'm staying out of it. I hope the rest of you make bank off of it!
     
  29. FadeMe

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    I don't usually make a habit of betting on Auburn games because I can never truly see them without a shade of orange and blue. But they're just bad, really bad right now.

    Plus, I think Ole Miss is a different team under Freeze. They play hard; they look like they believe in the system. In the Bama game, they had this look like the game was never out of reach and kept fighting. And I think this is a game Ole Miss can and should win. It's their chance to win an SEC game and end that streak. Big motivation right there.
     
  30. steamengine

    steamengine I don’t want to press one for English!
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    You think Maryland can keep it within 10 but Tech can't?


    Sat, Sept 1

    1-0 (0-0)
    Sat, Sept 15

    2-0 (0-0)
    Sat, Sept 22

    3-0 (0-0)
    Sat, Sept 29

    4-0 (1-0)
    Sat, Oct 6


    5-0 (2-0)
     
  31. FriendsofJtyler

    FriendsofJtyler I strenuously object
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    Anybody have any updated leans?

    I like Vandy more and more. Sandwich game for Florida. Vanderbilt is 9-0 ATS over the last 2 years at home. Florida coming off biggest win of their coaches career.

    Likely going to roll with OSU/BYU under. Both playing #2 QB's, both have very stout defenses. Under is a low number but I see like a 17-10 type game.

    LSU is still my favorite play on the board. USCe has been patted on their back all week and are walking into a sleeping giant this weekend that has one of the best home records in college football over the last 3-4 years and simply doesn't lose back to back games under Miles. If LSU beats Florida (which they were doing for more than half of that game) this line would be a touchdown in favor of LSU. Tons of value here.
     
  32. 20/20/20/20

    20/20/20/20 running thru the house with a pickle in my mouth
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  33. 20/20/20/20

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    Plays

    Alabama -21
    Notre Dame-7

    like Texas +3 but not sure if I will play it or not
     
  34. hamsterdam

    hamsterdam I wish I knew how to quit you.
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    do it.
     
  35. FriendsofJtyler

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    Oh lawd.
     
  36. rockportraider

    rockportraider Well-Known Member

    What are your picks this weekend?
     
  37. TLAU

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    Too add to Fademe's figures, in AUs last 4 SEC games, McCaleb has scored as many TD on KO Returns as the rest of the Offense altogether.

    Waiting to see what the AU Team Total is and will probably take the Under. especially if it is over 14-17ish. judging by the Total being 48.5 and spread being 6, they are gonna have to put AU TT around 21 or so since they normally make it coincide with the total/spread.

    AU TT Under 21/21.5 will be a pretty big play
     
  38. TLAU

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    Not buying the LSU -3 just because of home field advantage and trends under les miles. this might be the worst team he's had that I can remember. OLine is not very good and offense relies to much on a dominant run game being able to move the chains and wear down the defenses. They just aren't doing that this year and UF showed that you can shut that offense down by forcing Mett to beat you in the air. I feel like USCe's defense can and will hold LSU to 2TDs or less. Now you can't really handicap "Honey Badger Plays" but that would be the only way I see LSU winning the game.
     
  39. 20/20/20/20

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    Posted in the very next post.
     
  40. captbunch

    captbunch Fan of: Texas Tech, Texas Rangers
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    Good luck
     
  41. 20/20/20/20

    20/20/20/20 running thru the house with a pickle in my mouth
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    What do you guys think about the Indiana/Ohio State total? I have it at 61 right now.

    Interesting to see the total at less than what OSU scored on Nebraska last week, especially when Indiana usually plays high scoring games. Indiana has a capable offense and absolutely horrid defense (same story for them for years now).
     
  42. FadeMe

    FadeMe Well-Known Member
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    Completely agree. They may prove me wrong, but I don't think can beat anyone when the game is on his shoulders. South Carolina is better in all three facets of the game. I'll take USCe and the points.
     
  43. TLAU

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    I feel more comfortable taking USC getting a FG and buying the half to +3.5 than relying on LSU's team to win a game at this point in time
     
  44. Nantucket

    Nantucket Northeastern Elitism+Alabama Downhome Sensibility
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    ironic sequence of posts here
     
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  45. Joey Freshwater

    Joey Freshwater Slingin The Pipe Since 75
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    That total is a bit weird. Ohio State seems to score a good bit and Indiana plays at a tempo where they seem to score too. Indiana's defense is horrible. I would think Ohio State scores somewhere in the range of 48-51 while Indiana may score 10-17. Ohio State's defense hasn't been a wall my any means this year, even letting UAB go up and down the field on them. I'd say the over seems like the play but it is fishy to see it at 61.

    As for LSU, as much as I want to take South Carolina I'm just not sure. South Carolina hasn't proven to me that they can win a big game, be patted on the back and then go win another big game the following week. Maybe Spurrier has coached them up but remember in 2010 they beat Alabama and lost the next week. I think South Carolina is the better team right now and they do match up with LSU by being able to control the line of scrimmage and make Mettenberger beat them passing but I just have a feeling they fold this week. You add that with the fact Miles has done well not losing back to back games and the game being played in Tiger Stadium, it just has all the makings of an LSU win.

    I'm looking at a lot of plays right now, UAB looks like it will make the cut. Catching +13.5 @ Houston who really hasn't impressed at all. They are being given the play because of past teams success and the fact UAB hasn't been a historically good program but UAB has been solid this year. I really wouldn't be surprised to see them win outright in this game.
     
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  46. TLAU

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    ND stanford is definitely an odd line. Thought it would be a lot closer to 3. think i saw it at 8/9 the last couple days
     
  47. FriendsofJtyler

    FriendsofJtyler I strenuously object
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    LSU hasn't been held to fewer than 2 TDs, at home, since 2009. And now a South Carolina team that gave up 13 points to Vanderbilt (103rd in points) and 17 to Kentucky (107th in points) in their two road games is going to do the same or better against LSU? Yikes. I think you are grasping here.
     
  48. TLAU

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    They put up 41 on UF last year and 7 this year. I know it's only one game, but being an away game and UF improving 1 year can't be the sole explanation for a 34 point differential. Their offense is the worst it has been in a looooong time. They got in the endzone against AU once... on the goalline a 2nd time, but twice would still be pathetic.
     
  49. TLAU

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    and let's be honest here, the Vandy game was 1st of the year and Vandy's superbowl. Anyone that watched the UK-USC game knows they were sleepwalking in the 1st half and didn't give 2 shits about that game
     
  50. TLAU

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    and if we're comparing prior "look ahead" games from this season, LSU only outgained Towson by 100 yards, had less 1st downs, and 10 minutes less possession.