Fair enough. I just think this is classic overreaction. You see this every week in gambling. Looking too much what the team did the week before. Not saying you are doing it, just that the betting public is doing that in this game. They are also doing in the Duke/VT game backing Duke and the Wisconsin/Purdue game backing Wisconsin. Like last week the public was backing Washington at Oregon because Washington beat Stanford the week before and Oregon failed to cover at Washington State. Oregon then buried Washington. Same thing with Iowa/Minnesota the week before. Public backs Minnesota saying why on earth are they getting points when the week before Iowa lost to CMU and Minnesota beat Syracuse. Iowa then buries Minnesota.
Haven't played these yet but so far I like: Purdue-3 UConn-5.5 Vandy+8.5 Iowa State+6.5 BYU-6 ND-7.5 LSU-2.5 TTU+3.5
Anyone know if lsu's center is back? I saw him go down early in both au and uf games and the offense get significantly worse. Lsu also had their rg go out at uf. Playing with pretty much your second string oline and mettenburger on the road in some serious stadiums was a real bad position to be in. I've been high on South carlina being atleast the 2nd best team in the sec all year but this is a tough spot to put down on them. Lsu or nothing assuming the public is on Scar. It's an 8pm kickoff also I think.
night game in baton rouge is the only reason I'm not putting much on this game. I think it's equally difficult to bet on LSU though. SEC in October is generally a bad month for gambling
Western Kentucky -2 Thursday night My buddy in the athletic dept. at Troy said this is one of the weaker teams they have had in a while
troy or nothing for me .. They don't call it the "shave" belt conference because they have an abundance of razors .. to be honest, that line makes the least sense of any this weekend. I'm done with that conference's games, and WKU might cover that easily .. this just has fix written all over it.
My plays this weekend, lots of faves, thoughts?: AZ State -22.5**. Off a bye week, Colorado sucks, dance with the one that brought you. Texas +3**. Texas gets pressure on Jones. Lower scoring game than most think, will take under as well. OK State -23 (1.25 units) -- holy shit up to 27 now Ole Miss -4.5 (1.25 units). I've had the pleasure of watching Auburn this season bc a buddy is a huge fan. They blow. Bama -21 (1.5 units). Probably a sucker bet. Mizzou defense is pretty good. Betting on Mizzou scoring less than a TD with Franklin out and OL in the shitter. Bama is great on the road in SEC. Rutgers -7 (1.5 units). Cuse sucks away from the dome. Rutgers D is legit.
Does anyone have an idea of how often the favorite covers in Thursday night games? I have absolutely no evidence for this but my gut feeling is that it's low. It makes me very wary of betting on ASU, even though they seem like the obvious play for tonight.
Some trends are certainly worth following, but I don't think that is one of them. Maybe if it were home favorites or road favorites, but just favorites I think has to be spurious.
If it goes to 28x, I'd try it. Depends on how much I had on it too. If you bet big especially. Then you'd have 24, 27 and 28 covered.
public, mid-week, road favorites were NOT covering at a clip of 68% from 2000-2010. I lost count of it last year.
See, I think that's a worthwhile trend to look at. But, just saying "favorites" is not, because there's no real explanation. Road favorites makes sense because of the travel on a short schedule, the lack of home field advantage, etc.
good feedback. i hadn't really thought to further filter it but there you have it. anyway, good luck to those who pull the trigger (on either team).
I'm not sure how the rest of the O-line looks this week, but Alex Hurst may not play this weekend due to personal issues. He hasn't practiced all week. Hurst was recently moved to LT to help Mett's protection. Bad news if he doesn't play. That said I took LSU -2.5 earlier in the week so I'm hoping for the best. Just to follow up: If Hurst doesn't play, Miles said likely senior Josh Dworaczyk would return to left tackle where he started and played against Washington.
So, I went to my online banking and saw that someone has stolen my info somehow. I've got some charges that I know I didn't do. So its looking like I won't be placing any plays this weekend which sucks. Guess ill watch the games and the lines and see what I notice so I can learn a little more about some teams for next week.
Yea, luckily I've got that protection shit from the bank so it will just cancel those charges and ill wait on another card to be sent. Still blows.
Happened to me about a month ago. Charged about $500 before the bank figured out i wasn't in Omaha, Tulsa and California in the same day.
made a small play on ASU -22 due to this Polk is officially listed as "doubtful." RB Christian Powell and DE Chidera Uzo-Diribe are both listed as out as are RB Terrence Crowder, DT Justin Solis, ILB Paul Vigo, CB Yuri Wright.
if it is anywhere below 20 i will be HAMMERING oregon az state qb constantly bowing out of pocket with pressure oregon really good at bringing pressure