The less respect Oregon gets in the BCS the more I like them to anally penetrate these weak Pac12 teams. Although them calling off the dogs in the 2Q of the ASU game makes me want to avoid taking them for the whole game. @ -46 I think they will probably have a 1st Half line of ~31. And if that is anywhere close to the 1H line that comes out they can take all my money
Yea I agree. I understand why the line dropped. Sharps saw value in Wake +14 at home, a team Clemson has struggled with in the past. This is as square as it gets and might bite me, but I have to pull the trigger. We've been a covering machine the last month.
ending 4 Team Parlay Pending 10/25/12 7:30pm College Football 105 Clemson -13 -110* vs Wake Forest Pending 10/26/12 8:00pm College Football 108 Louisville -4½ -110* vs Cincinnati U Pending 10/27/12 12:20pm College Football 193 Mississippi +5½ -110* vs Arkansas Pending 10/27/12 8:00pm College Football 205 Michigan +3 -120* vs Nebraska
Hillis was absolute shit against NCST in the first half, and once Devin Burns came came in Maryland "kind of" woke up on offense. Burns may also be a better fit in that offense as C.J. Brown, 1st string QB who went down preseason, is a mobile guy who can run the read option. Hillis is a statute and does not provide that type of mobility. Even if Hillis is out i don't see how BC wins this game. This is the worst BC team in the last 10 years. However, this game screams trap as i suspect the public will be ALL over Maryland.
Two weeks ago it was WVU/TT Last week it was Ok State/ISU This week I really think the trap line is UW/OSU. That line is begging for Oregon State money and the public is going to walk right into it. You have a Washington team that just got demolished by Arizona at home as only 4 point underdogs against an undefeated #8 Oregon State team? Line screams Washington winning straight up. I'm rolling with Washington +4
I posted the numbers of auburn ATS as a home dog at night when they played LSU. I think it was like 8-2 since 2000. I got auburn today at +14. I'll probably lose because Johnny Football should light up the defense and we can't score with them
Colorado is +70,000 at 5dimes. I kind of want to put something small on it just because 700/1 is ridiculous for a football game.
I disagree. But it's not like it's something I would be expecting to hit. I know how bad Colorado is. But a $2 bet on it could win $1,400 if the unthinkable happens.
I'm not saying I disagree with you but IF the public is going to walk right into it wouldn't that mean this line is only gonna get better as the week goes on unless it gets pounded by some sharp money the other way? Line is at +4 1/2 - +5 right now in most places. Also worth noting is that Mike Riley is 10 times the coach Sark is and historically OSU rarely loses games like these.
If it moves like the Texas Tech/WVU line did it will go down. That line opened at 5 and was down to 2.5 or 3 by kickoff. Too hard to predict. Unless it move to 6 or below 3.5 there isn't really any value waiting. 4 and 5 aren't key numbers.
Anyone else like Arizona this week? If it goes back to 7 at my book I may jump on it. USC is 0-4 ATS on the road this year. They didn't cover at Syracuse, Stanford, Utah, or Washington. Now they have to go on the road and play an Arizona team gaining confidence that is very solid at home - and they have to do this a week before their biggest game of the season, a huge home game against Oregon.
Will be on Arizona and probably ML also. Scott is a very good QB. SC offense is very underwhelming, especially if you make them beat you with extended drives.
You should take what I say with a grain of salt but I think Arizona +7 or better is a real good line... I tend to think we've got a pretty good shot of winning outright so that money line could be a decent play. Arizona hasn't lost to USC by more than 7 since 2006... 5 straight and counting. This has the makings of a classic trap game for USC... Some USC players are already chattering about Oregon next week. Obviously USC has considerably more talent and depth than Arizona but I think the Wildcats will be more focused, more hungry, and will have the home crowd/intangibles on their side. Between OSU and Stanford the Wildcats have had a couple close, frustrating 4th Quarter/OT losses to solid teams - I think the sting of those games will be a motivating factor. Also, Rich Rod is a better coach than Kiffin... that can't hurt. If USC gets their power run game going (entirely possible) Arizona will probably be in trouble.
Ill try and get the wrong team favored numbers tomorrow. On the road in San Antonio for work and have been busy
Thoughts on Arkansas St @ UL Lafayette -4? I'm leaning Arky St. ULL is still starting its backup. And their defense is weak against teams who can run the ball. ULL has given up 572 yards rushing in its two losses while only giving up 206 in its four wins. Ark St leads the Sun Belt and is 21st nationally in rushing.
I doubt I'll bet but my gut feel is ULL. These reasons: - ULL's starting RB was out sick last week and will be back. - Arkansas State is 0-5 SU in their last 5 trips to Lafayette and just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games against the Ragin Cajuns. GL with the bet.
Anybody have any thoughts on the Duke/FSU game? Line opened at FSU -25.5 and has moved to -28, but almost 66% of the action is on Duke.
Have locked in Michigan +3 for 2 units and South Carolina -13.5 for 1 unit. Not a ton else out there that I like. Might be a light week for me, but I really like those two I already played.
I locked Maryland at +2 and like Arizona +7 and Washington +5. I'd probably do either at a half point lower, too. I like Duke, but the public action scares me away.
Know nothing about Maryland other than they lost their starting RB and starting and backup QBs. bc is bad, but are they that bad?
I'd be very hesitant backing a road team with a QB making his first career start even if is against Boston College.
I went ahead and took Arkansas St +4. It's moved down to +3.5 -120, which makes me think it might move to 3 soon.
Even after playing some pretty decent offenses, Maryland is giving up only 20 a game. And, BC has an atrocious offense. I think Maryland ought to be a 3.5 favorite.
Fat Jack sent out early picks for Saturday which he rarely does. One of the times he did was when he picked Tech over WVU. Anyway, he's had a really good year, mainly due to NFL, but he's 11-2 last two weeks in college. He sent out Texas Tech +7 Colorado St -6.5 Then, ten minutes later, he sent out Arkansas -6 Playbook has been solid in NCAA this year ... 5* Oklahoma 4* Tennessee 3* Miss. St.
captbunch Do you have any lean on the total? My initial thought was over, but the more I look at it, the more I like the under.
just saw this and had no lean on total. Going to hedge 2H tho bc ark state should be up way more and I can see ULL putting some points up 2H
Agreed. This game has a bad feeling to it. Ark St has left a lot of points on the field, and Broadway is starting to heat up.