found this on a forum and decided to share since there are a handful of bowls left in december. if you win the 1H bet you call that a W for the game and move on. Basic Chase system, so as far as record keeping is concerned, if you lose the 1H but win the 2H it counts as a WIN (1-0) in the records. Check this out. Last season I decided to play 1H unders in all bowl games. What I found out was that I was 19-15. Big whoop right, that's only +2.5 units. Well, I started digging further. December, the 1H unders were 16-7, in January, they were 3-8. Not satisfied, I took it a step further. I looked at the 2H unders. I found out that games that went over the 1H total, mostly went under the 2H total. So, here's the gist, if you play 1H under and win, great. If you play the 1H under and lose 1 unit, then play the 2H under for 2.1 units. If you did this last year, you would have been 32-2 for 25.4 units. That's a little insane. The two losses to this "system" last year was Baylor/Washington which had 59 and 64 points in each half and NC St/Louiville which hit the 2H over by a point. I looked back at 2010-11 bowl games. That season yielded a 28-7 record for 4.8 units. 2011-12 was too perfect, I wouldn't expect it continue. The breakeven point on this system is 27 wins and 8 losses. For each win, you cash a unit, for each loss, you'd lose about 3.3 units. Of course, you could modify it to win less profit with the 2H under if you wish or bail on 2H depending on how the game is going. Shootouts like the Baylor/Washington game might need to be avoided. System is 8-0 so far this bowl season
Cliffs: Bet the 1H Under for the game. Win = Good for you, on to the next game Lose = Bet 2X your 1H bet on the 2H Under Giving it a test run today, as I have been skeptical hippo so far. But an 8-0 start in 2012 and 32-2 record in 2011 has made me feel obligated to at least try it for some little $15-20 bets
There is a 10% chance of this being 8-0 even if you just assume each half's o/u is a 50/50 chance independent of the other half.
That said, I took the 1H under in sjsu/bg just for fun even though this system seems pretty silly (as all systems thqt make certain plays with no regard for what the line is are).
9-0. Our 75% chance of success wins again. He says the break-even point is 27-8 though which is 77% so there needs to be some underlying value in the under of all bowl half totals for this to have a positive expected value.
starting off with a W definitely gave me enough confidence to ride the system out unless it starts tanking. Capt just do 1H under and maybe you'll win both. I would take actual handicapping knowledge before following a system though. and FWIW I'm playing probably $20 a game here which is minimum bet basically.
Maaaaaay sit out on the Baylor game though. I honestly think the Under is the pick in the game just because how could you not love both teams to score in the 40s. just seems like EVERYONE is on the Over. So may sit that one out during the 1st half and just hope 1H Over hits and play the 2H Under small or something as the back half of the chase. Locked in Cincy Un31.5 let's see if the streak continues
well guess the system is at 10-1. should have stuck to original plan to sit out the 1H of baylor and play 2H.
yea I like the Under in the Vandy game regardless. Account on 5D doesn't have enough in it to cover the other 3 games because of a way too big bet on Vandy -7 so hopefully 1H Under in Vandy game hits
Yea I am planning on continuing through the NCG unless it tanks. Just the 1H unders in a very insufficient sample size did much better in December than January
1H vandy looked good end of 1Q then that offensive explosion. 2H Un 28 (buy) looks good considering the whole game total was 53 and this puts the whole game total at 70
I'm getting it. I missed the 1H as i was trying to get vandy before the game started. I feel like the turnovers caused a lot of those points
2H under easy hit. no clue what the updated record is. didn't have enough available $ to get on USC Under 1H but it looks to be easy lock 1H Un 25 for ISU/Tulsa game
yea this under is DONE for 1H very quickly. hopefully they score a ton in 1H and the 2H line is inflated. There will probably be at least a couple more games that zero defense is played. hopefully can spot those and wait out the 1H and not lose that $
Will probably lay off the 2H. I've got a lot riding on Tulsa and finally starting to feel good about it
This whole system just seems liks you're chasing bets and that rarely works out. But congrats to those that are winning with this. Saturday afternoon and night burned me out pretty quickly on this one.