Official Horse Racing Thread

I love the draws for both Firing Line and Frosted. Dortmund drew well too.

As a Carpe Diem fan, 2 is definitely not an ideal draw for him, but I don't think it's a death sentence, because he isn't going to be too forwardly placed. I think that Materiality drew even worse with the 3 post, because he does need to be towards the front. He'll have to be hustled to get ahead of all the horses moving towards the rail.

I'll have something on the Oaks later tonight. Stellar Wind looks tough to beat for me, though. I thought she was very impressive this spring.

 

Free DRF PP's for the Oaks and the Derby:

Kentucky Oaks
Kentucky Derby

 

The 2 post really isn't as bad as it is made out to be. This is how the 2 post has fared the past 10 Derbies:

2005: Andromeda's Hero (57-1), finished 8th
2006: Steppenwolfer (16-1), finished 3rd
2007: Curlin (5-1), finished 3rd
2008: Tale of Ekati (37-1), finished 4th
2009: Musket Man (19-1), finished 3rd
2010: Ice Box (12-1), finished 2nd
2011: Brilliant Speed (27-1), finished 7th
2012: Optimizer (42-1), finished 11th
2013: Oxbow (26-1), finished 6th
2014: Harry's Holiday (44-1), finished 16th

So while there aren't any wins, a horse from the 2 post has hit the super 5 out of the 10 years, and only two horses didn't finish in the top half of the field- both over 40-1 (even Optimizer outran his odds in finishing 11th). The key with those finishing in the top 4? All of those horses were midpack or closers (granted, Oxbow ran huge finishing 6th running near the front). I expect Carpe Diem to be midpack.

 

One more thing I'd like to point out- this is Dale Romans' history at the Derby:

2010: Paddy O'Prado (12-1), 7th choice, finished 3rd
2011: Shackleford (23-1), 12th choice, finished 4th
2012: Dullahan (12-1), 6th choice, finished 3rd
2014: Medal Count (26-1), 12th choice, finished a troubled 8th (I'm convinced he finishes at least the top four if he doesn't get interfered with in the stretch)

His horses always show up on Derby Day, so definitely be aware of Keen Ice. I can't see him winning, but in the exotics, he's dangerous.

 

Anyways, some stakes picks for Kentucky Oaks day:

Race 6: G3 Edgewood Stakes
1. Sunset Glow (3) 8-5
2. Quality Rocks (1) 3-1
3. Lady Zuzu (5) 15-1

Race 7: G1 La Troienne Stakes
1. America (4) 10-1
2. Sheer Drama (5) 3-1
3. Gold Medal Dancer (7) 9-2

Race 8: G2 Alysheba Stakes
1. Honor Code (7) 8-5
2. Protonico (2) 7-5
3. Cougar Ridge (10) 50-1

Race 9: G3 Turf Sprint Stakes
1. Zee Bros (7) 12-1
2. Undrafted (12) 7-2
3. Power Alert (10) 5-1

Race 10: G3 Eight Belles Stakes
1. Ekati’s Phaeton (3) 6-1
2. Taylor S (12) 4-1
3. Callback (1) 3-1

Race 11: Kentucky Oaks
If Stellar Wind (12) runs the same race that she did last time out, then every other horse, with the possible exception of I’m a Chatterbox (8), will have to take a big step forward. And in the case of I’m a Chatterbox, I have a tough time seeing a horse sired by Munnings getting better as the distances get longer, while Stellar Wind should relish the extra ground. The only problem I have with Stellar Wind is that John Sadler, her trainer, does not have a good history in shipping horses out of California. I’m willing to look past that, though, since the horse herself has shown that shipping doesn’t bother her when she was transferred in to Sadler’s barn. The other main contender is Condo Commando (5). Truthfully, I’ve never been a fan of hers, as she gets perfect setup after perfect setup. The thing is, she might get another one, as there isn’t a lot of speed, so she might be loose on the lead. She’s the only horse that has won going 1 1/8 miles, and she has done so twice. A couple long shots that I think are interesting: Forever Unbridled (1) and Shook Up (2).

1. Stellar Wind (12) 7-2
2. Forever Unbridled (1) 15-1
3. Condo Commando (5) 4-1

 

Saturday undercard stakes:

Race 5: G3 Pat Day Mile
1. Competitive Edge (6) 6-5 (It wouldn't stun me if this horse ended up being the best horse in the crop of three year olds, even though he will be best at shorter distances)
2. Gimme Da Lute (2) 7-2
3. Lord Nelson (5) 3-1

Race 6: G2 American Turf
1. Royal Son (4) 5-1
2. Luck of the Kitten (1) 7-2
3. Firespike (9) 15-1

Race 7: G1 Humana Distaff
1. Sweet Reason (1) 5-1
2. Sweet Whiskey (7) 6-1
3. Judy The Beauty (8) 6-5

Race 8: G2 Churchill Distaff Turf Mile
1. Lady Lara (4) 7-2
2. Coffee Clique (5) 3-1
3. Tepin (3) 15-1

Race 9: G2 Churchill Downs
1. C. Zee (1) 15-1
2. Bayern (2) 1-1 (Obviously, the most likely winner, but given the lengthy layoff and what should be a lively pace scenario, I think he could be vulnerable)
3. Private Zone (4) 2-1

Race 10: G1 Woodford Reserve
1. Stephanie’s Kitten (8) 9-2
2. Umgiyo (3) 30-1
3. Grand Arch (12) 8-1

 

Breaking down the Kentucky Derby, horse by horse:

Spoiler

1. Ocho Ocho Ocho (50-1): He’s not fast enough, has distance limitations, the wrong running style, and is stuck on the rail. Not using.

2. Carpe Diem (8-1): I get that he needs to get faster from a speed figure standpoint, but I also don’t think we’ve seen anything near his best. Todd Pletcher gets grief for his Derby failure, but his one Derby winner (Super Saver) followed a similar pattern to Carpe Diem. Carpe Diem should also relish the extra distance. Win contender.

3. Materiality (12-1): One of the toughest calls for me- he’s the fastest horse from a Beyer standpoint, running a 110 Beyer while winning the Florida Derby. And he does have two wins at 1 1/8 miles, plus a strong pedigree. But it bugs me that he’s only run at Gulfstream, a quirky track that is known to produce Pletcher freaks but don’t quite replicate it outside of that track. Will use defensively in exotics, but ultimately trying to beat.

4. Tencendur (30-1): He did improve last time out in the Wood, but he had a perfect trip, and was still comfortably beaten by Frosted- a horse who did not have a perfect trip. Not using.

5. Danzig Moon (30-1): He’s getting a lot of hype as one of the most impressive horses training at Churchill. The problem is, he’s always looked great in training, and it hasn’t translated to the track. Not using.

6. Mubtaahij (20-1): Another tough call for me. He looked impressive in the UAE Derby, but I don’t know what he beat, and he sat behind a much slower pace than what he will see here. He has a great trainer in Mike de Kock- he has only ran six horses in the United States in his career, and all of them have finished in the top three. But it concerns me that his feed- one of de Kock’s creation- won’t be allowed in the US. It might make a minimal difference, but it can’t be a positive, and on a horse I’m on the fence about, it’s enough to tip the scales against him for me. Not using.

7. El Kabeir (30-1): He is what he is- a solid horse that is a tier below the best and that has some distance limitations. With Calvin Borel as his jockey, he’ll be overbet. Not using.

8. Dortmund (3-1): The likeliest winner in the field to me. He’s won in blowouts and in dogfights. He’s also already won at Churchill. He’s won setting the pace and by passing horses. And he’s consistently running very fast, with three straight mid-100 Beyers. The one concern I’d have with him is getting into traffic trouble around the turns- he’s such a big horse that he doesn’t run smoothly on the turns. But if he gets past that, he’ll be tough to beat. Won't get great odds on him though. Win contender.

9. Bolo (30-1): He’s a grade one caliber horse, but I think that is on turf and going a bit shorter. Think he’s in a bit too deep here. Not using.

10. Firing Line (12-1): He’s the only horse that Dortmund has had any trouble with. Firing Line has lost by a head twice to Dortmund. I think he was best in their first meeting, with Dortmund having the better trip, but would give Dortmund the edge in their more recent race. Once he got away from Dortmund, he absolutely destroyed an overmatched field in the Sunland Derby. Another positive- he has three time winning jockey Gary Stevens on his side. I think he’s dangerous. Win contender.

11. Stanford: He has been scratched.

12. International Star (20-1): He swept the Louisiana series of races, and I’ve consistently underrated him. And he should sit a decent trip. But I still tend to lean towards him being the beneficiary of getting great trips against a relatively mediocre group of horses. Not using.

13. Itsaknockout (30-1): I don’t like him in this spot; he’s not on the level of the others in the Derby. But keep him in the back of your mind if he ends up running in the Belmont Stakes- he reminds me very much of Commissioner last year. Not using.

14. Keen Ice (50-1): On paper, he’s not fast enough, but if you are looking for a bomb in the exotics, I think he is the one. He has a great distances pedigree, and the right running style to get a piece. Dale Romans horses always seem to outperform their odds in the Derby. And I think he’s had excuses in all of his races, either due to running into a slow pace or being forced to run wide while International Star has been able to cut the corner in their races. Do I think he’s one of the top 4-5 horses in the field? No, but neither was Golden Soul two years ago or Commanding Curve last year, and they each ran second. He doesn’t need to be the best horse, he just needs the right trip to get into the bottom of the exotics, and that seems very plausible to me. Exotics contender.

15. Frosted (15-1): He had minor throat surgery after his collapse in the Fountain of Youth, and he came back to win impressively in the Wood Memorial. His best race puts him in with the other top contenders, and, other than maybe Firing Line, he’ll be a better price than any of them. And he’s also a horse that can sit back a bit, and could benefit from a more contested pace. Win contender.

16. War Story (50-1): He’s just not that good, and he’s also had a history of breaking slow, which would further hurt his chances. Not using.

17. Mr. Z (50-1): He’s always game, and he shows up every time at any track you ask him to, but with the number of races he’s run, it’s tough to imagine him improving, and he would need to do so significantly to contend. Not using.

18. American Pharoah (5-2): I can’t remember the last Derby horse that has been hyped as much as he as- even from competitors. I’ve even heard some comparisons to Seattle Slew thrown around. He’s brilliant, there’s no doubt about that. But I can’t get over the fact that he’s had easy trip after easy trip, and that the female side of his pedigree is very much orientated to speed, not stamina. And as great as he’s looked, his speed figures aren’t any better than the other main contenders, and it isn’t if he’s been beating any great horses- a horse like Dortmund has been keeping much better company this year. Will use defensively in exotics, but ultimately trying to beat.

19. Upstart (15-1): He hasn’t run a bad race yet, and has multiple races that make him competitive. But I’ve always had some distance concerns with him, and given his post position and running style, I could see him having a less than ideal trip. Similar to Mubtaahij, he scares me a bit, but I will be against him. Not using.

20. Far Right (30-1): He’s another deep closer that, theoretically, could make a late run and pick up a piece. But he’s had much more favorable trips than a horse like Keen Ice this year, and I don’t think he’s been training all that well in the lead up to the Derby. Still, at his price, I could maybe throw him into the bottom of exotics. Fringe exotics contender.

21. Frammento (50-1): With the defection of Stanford, he draws in to the field. He’s another horse that will be coming from well back, but I don’t like him as much as some other closers in this group. Not using.

22 (AE). Tale of Verve (50-1): Will scratch unless someone else drops out. If he did get in, his odds should be 5000-1, not 50-1. Not using.

Win Contenders: Carpe Diem (2), Dortmund (8), Firing Line (10), Frosted (15)
Exotics Contenders: Materiality (3), Keen Ice (14), American Pharoah (18), Far Right (20)

Kentucky Derby Selections:
1. Carpe Diem (2) 8-1
2. Dortmund (8) 3-1
3. Firing Line (10) 12-1
4. Frosted (15) 15-1

 

The race I plan on playing the most on Saturday from those undercard races is the Woodford Reserve, trying to get Umgiyo in the trifecta. He's the other Mike de Kock horse racing at Churchill this weekend (as I mentioned with Mubtaahij, de Kock is 6 for 6 in finishing in the money in the US). He's dropping out of the Dubai Turf, so while this is a Grade 1, it's actually a small class drop for him. I'm going to key him in 1st, 2nd, and 3rd with Stephanie's Kitten, Grand Arch, Seek Again, Jack Milton, and Finnegan's Wake. Bet would look like this:

3/5,7,8,9,12/5,7,8,9,12
5,7,8,9,12/3/5,7,8,9,12
5,7,8,9,12/5,7,8,9,12/3

Doing a 50 cent tri, the above bet would cost $30. If you wanted to cut out a horse from that group, Finnegan's Wake (the 5 horse) is the one I would leave out.

 

This is the Woodford Reserve bet:

1st: 3
2nd: 5,7,8,9,12
3rd: 5,7,8,9,12

1st: 5,7,8,9,12
2nd: 3
3rd: 5,7,8,9,12

1st: 5,7,8,9,12
2nd: 5,7,8,9,12
3rd: 3

So as long as the 3 horse finishes in the top 3, then any combination of the 5, 7, 8, 9, and 12 can be in the other spots.

As for American Pharoah, I'll use him in exotics, but my main group of horses will be Carpe Diem/Dortmund/Firing Line/Frosted.

 

Essentially ended up even today because of that race. Didn't go too well otherwise.

It's probably a good thing that Zee Bros scratched- I feel like I always get suckered in by him.