Week 5 CFB/Week 4 NFl

Discussion in 'Gambling Board' started by NDXOS, Sep 29, 2015.

  1. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    8-2 last week.
    Hope to keep it going.

    Some early ones I like. Post your early leans..

    CFB

    ARZ +17.5 at Stanford
    Mia -6 at Cincy
    Kansas +16 @ Iowa State (I'm an idiot, I know)
    Hou at Tulsa +6
    FIU +3.5
    at Umass
    Alabama +2.5 at UGA
    TT +15.5 at Baylor
    Ark +6 at Tennessee
    Ore -9 at Colorado
    Texas at TCU -15
    WVU +7
    at OU
    Ole Miss -7.5 at UF
    UNLV +7 at Nevada
    Kan State +8.5 at Okla State
    Memphis -9 at USF
    Iowa at Wisconsin -7
    Pit +5.5
    at VT
    Toledo -6.5 at Ball State
    BC at Duke -6.5

    NFL

    Bal at Pit +2.5
    Car- 3 at TB
    NYJ -2.5 at Mia
    Cle at SD -7.5 (if it goes down to 7)
    Min +6.5 at Den
    Dal +4 at NO
     
    #1 NDXOS, Sep 29, 2015
    Last edited by a moderator: Sep 30, 2015
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  2. *DIESEL*

    *DIESEL* Half man, half amazing
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    Is Ole Miss still under a TD favorite @ UF? If so, that's one I'll be on. People overreacting from last week. Had Tenn not crapped their pants on 4th and 14/had a kick travel about 6 inches to the left, OM would be double digit favorites right now.

    Thinking about taking Texas too. I'm hesitant because they've been so bad, but they did nearly knock off a good Cal team and I'm not too sold on TCU. TCU isn't the same team as last year. They've been plagued by injuries on defense and just gave up over 600 yards to TT. That was a tough, last second win for them and I could see this being a let down game that Texas can keep close.

    Other CFB games I like without doing any research yet:

    Ore -9 @ Colo
    Houston -6 @ Tulsa
    TT +17 @ Baylor
    Bama ML @ UGA
    KSU +8.5 @ Okie St
    ECU -5.5 @ SMU
    ND pick @ Clemson

    Damn...I'm on all road teams. That's probably not good...

    Haven't looked at NFL really yet, but out of what you posted, Car -3 looks good.
     
  3. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    Ole Miss is -7.5 from what I see.

    Didn't see KSU +8.5 that looks tempting. Will have to do some more digging.
     
  4. *DIESEL*

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    Hate doing college teasers, but a 6.5 swing for Bama +8.5 and OM -1 seems like free money....
     
  5. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    Agree. Like you said usually dangerous waters but that does seem to make alot of sense.
     
  6. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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    never bet college teasers

    my fave bet is UTSA -3

    texas hasn't been that bad. lost two close games on fluke special teams plays. covered both.

    i agree that tcu should win by 17+, but injuries have killed that team. they will lose a game, and soon. maybe not this week, but with heard at QB texas is a different team. hard to handicap texas with heard at QB and freshmen all over the field, but they are not the same team that got blown out by ND.
     
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  7. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    Thoughts on UTSA?
     
  8. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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    i think they are at least 10 points better.

    UTSA was game at arizona, and this line is severely inflated due to UTSA awful loss at ok state when they had 7 turnovers. UTSA also played a decent colo state team close last week. UTSA still winless, and hungry for their first win...so the intangible is there.
     
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  9. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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    also, what am i missing about cin being +6.5 at home on thurs night to miami?
     
  10. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    Cincy's QB (Gunner Kiel) got KOed last game for his 2nd concussion in a week. Backup is going to play. But he did come in and played pretty well vs Memphis last week.

    (Hayden Moore at quarterback after he threw for a school-record 557 yards in the 53-46 loss at Memphis last week)

    I think Cincy turns the ball over too much which could be the difference. Miami is coming off a bye, but does have FSU next week.

    Mia -6 is the lean for me right now. Will keep digging before I pick or not pick it later this week.
     
  11. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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    yeah thats what i am getting at. he looked very good, better than kiel. miami is just not that good.
     
  12. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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    miami d missing two safeties.
     
  13. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    You are making me question my lean haha.
     
  14. jltperson

    jltperson Making The Mainboard Great Again
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    I am max betting the Bama ML
     
  15. jltperson

    jltperson Making The Mainboard Great Again
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    And ole miss under -7 sounds pretty appealing, I agree
     
  16. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    Haven't charted Phil Steele's spreecast picks. How has he been doing?

    I know Fallica is killing it.
     
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  17. *DIESEL*

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    Yeah, I'm going to keep tailing the bear until he lets me down.
     
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  18. *DIESEL*

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  19. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

  20. 1

    1 A real fan. GBR!
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    Well shit. Hope he misses this one.
     
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  21. jltperson

    jltperson Making The Mainboard Great Again
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    I'm becoming more and more confident with ole miss at -7.5

    Probably gonna fire on that
     
  22. Bruce Bowen

    Bruce Bowen Well-Known Member
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    Grabbed a parlay with ole miss -6.5 bama +2.5 and nebraska -6.5 :pray:
     
  23. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    From Fallica..


    Buffalo Bulls (+9) vs. Bowling Green Falcons
    Fallica: The Football Power Index has Bowling Green as roughly a field goal favorite in this one. That caught my eye, as Bowling Green is the more commonly known side for its big win vs Maryland and opening-week game against Tennessee. But the Buffalo defense has been sneaky good this year (ranks higher in defensive efficiency than Wisconsin, Notre Dame and Miami). The two teams played a back-and-forth one-point game last year at Bowling Green. The Bulls have their entire QB-RB-WR group back from last year and should be able to again match the Falcons point for point, because while BG is seventh in the FBS in offensive efficiency, it is 114th in defensive efficiency.

    ATS pick: Buffalo 37, Bowling Green 35

    Buffalo Bills an underdog to Bowling Green??? Rex Ryan has been slipping.
     
  24. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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    i am scared to bet any east coast game this weekend. rain is gonna fuck everything up.
     
  25. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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    no doubt i will be on the U55 in the bama/UGA game.
     
  26. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    Alrighty.

    Results

    Week 1 4-6
    Week 2 5-5
    Week 3 5-5
    Week 4 8-2

    Here is (most of) my pick 10 pool Week 5.

    1. (Best bet) Ole Miss -7.5 at UF
    2. Alabama +2.5 at UGA
    3. Memphis -9 at USF
    4. Oregon -8 at Colorado
    5. Toledo -6.5 at Ball State
    6. Carolina Panthers -3 at TB
    7. NIU at Cen Mich +2.5 (tailing Fallica)
    8. Ohio State -21 at Indiana (tailing Fallica)
    9.
    10.

    Leans-
    Arz +6.5 at STL
    Min +6.5 at Den
    NYJ -2 at Miami
    NYG +6 at Buf

    UNLV +7 at Nevada
    BC at Duke -6.5
    Buf +9 at Bowling Green (tailing Fallica)
    Ill +7 at Nebraska (tailing Fallica)
    Texas Tech +17 at Baylor
    Kan State +8.5 at Okla State
    Pit +5.5 at VT
     
  27. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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    man i think that texas tech plays flat this weekend. 17 is not a lot for baylor, esp at home.
     
  28. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    Could very well be. Baylor's defense has been horrible, even for Baylor's standards. I could see the game being 53-40 55-40 51-36 kinda game. Probably won't play it but it's on the list.
     
    #28 NDXOS, Oct 1, 2015
    Last edited by a moderator: Oct 1, 2015
  29. cal2431

    cal2431 Well-Known Member

    Really would like to parlay ole miss and bama but on bovada they've got ole miss -7.5(still a good bet) but the bama line moved to +1.5. Don't like that nearly as much as 2.5
     
  30. jltperson

    jltperson Making The Mainboard Great Again
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    Shit man just take the money line
     
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  31. *DIESEL*

    *DIESEL* Half man, half amazing
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    Meh, if you're doing a 6.5 teaser (which is really as much as you should ever do to avoid paying ridiculous juice), you're looking at a difference of Bama +8 or Bama +9. You're still over the significant number of 7 and under the significant number of 10, so it's not a substantial difference spread-wise.
     
  32. Juan

    Juan All you got for me is Lite Beer...
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    Phil Steele Week 5

    My 10 best Week 5 college football ATS bets
    56m - COLLEGE FOOTBALL CLEMSON TIGERS +1 more
    • [​IMG]
      Phil Steele, ESPN Staff Writer
    Notre Dame Fighting Irish at No. 12Clemson Tigers (PK)[/paste:font]
    8:00 PM ET, ABC

    College GameDay will be on hand for this one and Clemson has one of the best entrances in college football. The Tigers have the QB advantage with Deshaun Watson and the home-field edge as well. Toss in the fact that Notre Dame is just 2-10 in true road game versus ranked teams and Clemson looks like the easy play.

    However, I am going to call for Notre Dame to grab the win on the road. Brian Kelly feels this is his best team yet, and last year the Fighting Irish would have knocked off the defending champs (Florida State) on the road had they not been called for pass interference late. He also had a team play in the national title game. This is a tough one to call, but I am very high on the Irish this year and I believe they will stay unbeaten.

    ATS pick: Notre Dame
    Score: Notre Dame 27, Clemson 23

    [​IMG][​IMG]

    Air Force Falcons at Navy Midshipmen(-5.5)
    3:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network

    Yes, I know that neither of these two teams are ranked, but they are both service academies that we can be proud of and they are a combined 5-1 this year with the only loss to No. 2 Michigan State. Not only has Air Force taken on the tougher schedule this year, the Falcons are stronger statistically. Air Force has outgained its foes by 195 yards per game and Navy by 61 yards per game.

    The underdog in this series is an outstanding 10-1-1 ATS and there have been eight outright upsets the last 12 years! Keep in mind these games are usually lower scoring than expected as both teams practice versus the option every day. The clincher is that Navy has never played in a conference before but now finds itself in first place in its division, with Notre Dame on deck. Air Force is used to playing both conference and service academy games and is fresh off a bye. I think the Falcons take this one.

    ATS pick: Air Force
    Score: Air Force 24, Navy 23

    [​IMG][​IMG]

    No. 23 West Virginia Mountaineers at No. 15Oklahoma Sooners (-6.5)
    12:00 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1

    I expected West Virginia to have its best defense yet under Dana Holgorsen and that has been the case. QB Skyler Howard threw the first interception of his career last week which speaks volumes about how he takes care of the ball. West Virginia also comes in with more impressive statistics.

    However, I like the Sooners here. They have faced the 23rd-toughest schedule by my numbers, while West Virginia has taken on my No. 110-ranked slate. Oklahoma comes in fresh off a bye and while not by large margins, I do give the Sooners the edge on offense, defense and special teams -- not to mention home field. Finally, last year Oklahoma went into Morgantown and while they struggled early, they still led 45-27 before giving up a late touchdown; in Norman, this should be another comfortable win.

    ATS pick: Oklahoma
    Score: Oklahoma 34, West Virginia 23

    [​IMG][​IMG]

    Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 5 Baylor Bears (-17)
    3:30 p.m. ET, ABC in Arlington, Texas (neutral site)

    Texas Tech was only a 5-point underdog at home versus No. 4 TCU last week and lost when TCU got a tipped-pass touchdown on fourth down. It may seem strange that the very next week the Red Raiders are at a neutral site and now are 17-point 'dogs versus the No. 5 team in the country.

    Baylor has the best offense in the nation, averaging 767 yards per game and 64 points per game but TCU has a good offense as well. The difference is TCU had a defense that was missing eight of my projected starters from my magazine in last week's game. Baylor comes in with a defense that is allowing just 318 yards per game and the Bears are holding their opponents to 195 yards below their season averages. Texas Tech's defense allows 565 yards per game and allows opponents 45 yards more than their season averages.

    ATS pick: Baylor
    Score: Baylor 55, Texas Tech 34

    [​IMG][​IMG]

    No. 11 Florida State Seminoles (-19) at Wake Forest Demon Deacons
    3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

    Wake Forest is an improved team this year but is still young and has three freshmen starters on the offensive line. That unit has already allowed 15 sacks, including six to Indiana last week. Last year Florida State's defense played lethargically all season, allowing 397 yards per game and only holding a foe to under 313 yards three times. Their best performance came versus Wake, when they gave up just 126 total yards in a 43-3 home win.

    Florida State had a bye last week and despite being 3-0 isn't even in the top 10. Last year the Seminoles allowed their opponents six yards more per game than their opponents averaged. This year they are holding foes to 198 yards below their season average and are playing with a lot more fire. Wake trailed Indiana last week 31-10 in the fourth quarter before a couple of late scores. Florida State has won the last three meetings between these two by a total score of 154-6! After scoring just one offensive TD at Boston College, their offense has a week off to work out the kinks. Florida State rolls to an easy road win here.

    ATS pick: Florida State
    Score: Florida State 38, Wake Forest 3

    [​IMG][​IMG]

    Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at No. 29 Boise State Broncos (-24.5)
    10:15 ET, ESPN

    Last week I had Wisconsin in its 28-0 shutout win over Hawaii, and the game was even worse than the final for the Rainbow Warriors as they only had 11 first downs to Wisconsin's 31. They flew back home and now pack up and fly to play Boise in altitude (were in Columbus two weeks prior to Wisconsin). This game is at night, so while the high is 72 degrees, it should drop into the mid 50's by halftime.

    As I expected, Boise State went with true frosh QB Brett Rypien and he has been an upgrade, completing 73 percent with a 3-0 TD-to-INT ratio. Hawaii has taken on two of my top-10 rated defenses this year and been shutout by both Ohio State (No. 3) and Wisconsin (No. 8); here the Rainbow Warriors face my No. 6-rated defense. Hawaii's offense is averaging 125 yards less than their opponents are allowing on average and now are a travel-weary team playing on the blue turf. This smells like a blowout.

    ATS pick: Boise State
    Score: Boise State 38, Hawaii 3

    Arizona State Sun Devils at No. 7 UCLA Bruins (-13.5)
    [​IMG][​IMG]

    7:30 p.m. ET, Fox

    I won going with UCLA last week over Arizona and with USC against Arizona State. Last week's results did cost us some line value here as UCLA was just a 5-point favorite in the summer and now has lost DE Eddie Vanderdoes, LB Myles Jack and CB Fabian Moreau, who are all out for the year.

    I do think UCLA is a complete team and QB Josh Rosen bounced back from two poor performances and hit 19-of-28 passes for 284 yards last week. Arizona State has played below my expectations all three weeks; the Sun Devils lost to Texas A&M by 21, then struggled versus both Cal Poly and New Mexico. They trailed USC 35-0 at the half last week. My computer is calling for a three-touchdown margin for the Bruins and I agree.

    ATS pick: UCLA
    Score: UCLA 34, Arizona State 13

    [​IMG][​IMG]

    No. 21 Mississippi State Bulldogs at No. 14Texas A&M Aggies (-7)
    7:30 PM ET, SEC Network

    I freely admit that I was one of the many, including the SEC media, to peg Mississippi State for seventh place in the SEC West. The Bulldogs have impressed me so far this season. While the LSU game looked like it would be a blowout loss, they rallied back and missed a FG at the end to lose by just two. They then rolled over Auburn on the road last week 17-9 and now travel to another tough site.

    Texas A&M looked great against Arizona State in the opener, getting two late touchdowns to turn a 7-point game into a 21-point rout. The Aggies did what they had to versus both Ball State and Nevada. Last week they trailed Arkansas 21-13 late in the fourth, but rallied for the tying touchdown and two-point conversion and won in OT.

    Last year, Mississippi State dominated the game, leading 48-17 before allowing a couple of late garbage touchdowns. Dak Prescott is completing 67 percent of his passes with a 7-0 TD-to-INT ratio and A&M is just 1-8 ATS as a favorite versus SEC foes the last three seasons. Mississippi State is 9-2 ATS as an SEC dog.

    ATS pick: Mississippi State
    Score: Texas A&M, 30 Mississippi State 27

    [​IMG][​IMG]

    Eastern Michigan Eagles at No. 9 LSU Tigers (-44.5)
    7:00 PM ET, ESPNU

    Here's a stat for you: If you bet against every team in the AP top 12 on a weekly basis if they weren't taking on a top-20 foe, you would right now be 28-10 ATS on the year! The last two weeks you would be 15-3 ATS, as Vegas keeps putting a premium number on these top 12 teams, which are public plays.

    This week it is Leonard Fournette against the worst rush defense in the FBS as Eastern Michigan is allowing 373 yards per game and 6.7 yards per carry! That is a huge mismatch but Eastern has been competitive this season, leading its first three games at the half and last week only trailing Army by six in the fourth quarter. The Eagles have a decent front seven, led by DE Pat O' Conner and LBAnthony Zappone. LSU has South Carolina on deck and won't risk getting Fournette injured by playing him in the second half. The last four years, Les Miles is 1-5 ATS when the spread is 31 or more versus a nonconference foe, if LSU is off a win with an SEC game on deck.

    ATS pick: Eastern Michigan
    Score: LSU 48, Eastern Michigan 16

    [​IMG][​IMG]

    No. 13 Alabama Crimson Tide at No 8Georgia Bulldogs (-2.5)
    3:30 PM ET, CBS


    Alabama is an underdog for the first time in the regular season since 2008 when they traveled Between The Hedges to Georgia. The Crimson Tide led that game 31-0 at the half. They were an underdog in 2009, but that was the SEC title game. Georgia has lost seven times the last two years outright as a favorite.

    Alabama has taken on my No. 5-toughest schedule (faced Wisconsin and Ole Miss) while Georgia has only taken on my No. 98-rated schedule. Despite that fact, the statistics are close with Georgia at plus-218 yards per game and Alabama right there at plus-193. The Crimson Tide's defense is holding opponents to 239 yards below their season average and the Bulldogs' defense is holding foes to 85 yards below their average. The clincher is this is a must-win for Bama to stay alive in the national title chase while Georgia can lose this game, still win out and get there.

    ATS pick: Alabama
    Score: Alabama 27, Georgia 24
     
  33. *DIESEL*

    *DIESEL* Half man, half amazing
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    Anyone know his record on the season? I'd be surprised if he's above .500.
     
  34. Rammer Jammer

    Rammer Jammer Fan Of: Bama, Braves, Packers, MSU Baseball
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    Thought on Wisconsin -6.5 this week
     
  35. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    I think the number is about right. Iowa is better than they have been lately and the defense is solid. Wisconsin IMO isn't as good as year's past. Not as good at OL and RB. If I had to play it I would take Wisconsin, but not a game on my radar.
     
  36. bstaple12

    bstaple12 Nole World Order
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    K State looks too good this week
     
  37. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    Great call on Cincy. You were dead on. Kudos.
     
  38. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    Week 1 4-6
    Week 2 5-5
    Week 3 5-5
    Week 4 8-2

    Pick 10 pool Week 5.

    1. (Best bet) Ole Miss -7.5 at UF
    2. Alabama +2.5 at UGA
    3. Memphis -9 at USF
    4. Oregon -8 at Colorado
    5. Pitt +5.5 at VT
    6. Carolina Panthers -3 at TB
    7. NIU at Cen Mich +2.5 (tailing Fallica)
    8. Ohio State -21 at Indiana (tailing Fallica)
    9. Buf +9 at Bowling Green (tailing Fallica)
    10. ODU +19.5 at Marshall (tailing Fallica)
     
  39. Rammer Jammer

    Rammer Jammer Fan Of: Bama, Braves, Packers, MSU Baseball
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    Memphis -8.5
    Over on the TT Baylor game at 88
    Bama +2
    OSU -21
    Wisconsin -6.5
     
  40. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    David Payne Purdum@DavidPurdum
    Since Bill Snyder returned to coach Kansas St in 2009, the Wildcats are 37-14-1 against the spread in conference play.
     
  41. dome foam

    dome foam ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
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    bet ok state at 5. i think the line is right at 8.
     
  42. dome foam

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    Bama +2
    Bama U55
    FLA +7 EV -- like should be ole miss -2. ole miss overvalued thanks to a fluky win at bama (i guess you could say the same about FLAs win against tenn, but the lopsided score in the ole miss/bama game did not tell the story).
    MTSU -1.5 (-105)
    NC State -4.5 -- under the radar team. severely undervalued here. they win by double digits. the loss of thornton means nothing essentially.
    Illinois +6.5 -- nebraska pass d is truly awful. so miss pissed away 4 trips to the redzone last week. close game here, real possibility illinois wins outright.
     
  43. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    Looks like Luck might not play if anyone was leaning Jax +9
     
  44. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    Liked Illinois also. Thinking about taking out Pit +5.5 at Vt. Thoughts on that game?
     
  45. Goose

    Goose Hi
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    Two parlays this weekend

    CFB +400
    Temple ML
    TCU -14.5
    Alabama ML
    Ohio State ML
    Marshall ML

    NFL +361
    Oakland -3
    Cincinnati -4
    Green Bay ML


    Also have the Dolphins on an even ML
     
    #45 Goose, Oct 2, 2015
    Last edited: Oct 2, 2015
  46. 1

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    [​IMG]
     
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  47. tnvols

    tnvols New Member
    TMB OG

    Georgia Southern -5.5
    UNLV +7
    Oklahoma under 60

    Jacksonville +9
    New York Giants +6
    Detroit +10

    best of luck to all
     
  48. LeVar Burton

    LeVar Burton Knee deep in a dynasty, ROLL TIDE!
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    FYSA UMASS is a 2.5 points favorite tomorrow.
     
  49. NDXOS

    NDXOS Guest

    Give me FIU in that one. But it will be close. UMASS has a nice QB/WR combo.
     
  50. LeVar Burton

    LeVar Burton Knee deep in a dynasty, ROLL TIDE!
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    Really feeling Bowling Green. I got on them early at -6.5